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Heck of a finish for V, Market just kept falling
I just hope we can end the day at or above .60 and perform better than the markets which dropped 6-8% this week.
Good points
as always I appreciate your feedback
I agree.
Just want to point out that I was not saying the sanctions will be treble. And, V could get 0 from the sanctions.
Also, I am saying that I believe the damages will have a reasonable multiple, of course the damages could be 0.
You can make the case that V get $20M and no injunction in the USA which allows Z to drag this on for a very long time.
I am just making the case that the amount that V could get is now potentially over $1B.
I also prefer the board to have some back and forth .. it was kind of dead
I am underestimating the settlement potential especially since Z put it around $870M. I used to think V would negotiate with Z and would take a settlement around $500M.
But, V now has their boot on Z's neck in the USA and Z is in a bad position which moves the number back towards the $870 and away from some middle ground.
Just a few months ago, I thought it was farfetched to put this in the $1B ballpark, but now I can see that it is not unreasonable to expect this to go north of $1B. That's my point.
Of course, I understand that Z is not the only Chinese company that needs to license these patents. You could build the case for another $1B potential out there.
agree. Not even looking at the infringement aspect. Also, I was not tripling the sanctions. I was just putting the sanction potential at $100M (up to Kaplan). NDA disclosure damages at $100M if V can show that it hurts their negotiation position with other potential licensees (V has been requested to lay out the damages by Kaplan). Suspecting it was a willful disclosure of the NDA, then V could get a multiple on the damages. I am guessing triple the damages, $300M, for a total of $400M. Z still need to settle with V on using the essential patents and I put that at $500M+ of the life of the patents. So, I think it could get to $1B especially with all of Z's boo boos with Kaplan.
Thanks. I didn't go to level II, but I should have. I was just observing the bid/ask shown in ihub. Of course, ihub is quirky.
I will chalk it up to ihub and not a MM game.
yep. Strangely enough the bid is .438 again
Is it being exactly .438 just a coincidence?
Z now has 1.4B cash
The normal brain says we can afford to settle and get back to growing market share around the world.
The abnormal brain says more money to short V stock, pay for a disinformation campaign, and cheat the system
just my WAG, but Z has been so out of line that the sanctions could exceed $100M and the damages could be tripled and exceed $300M and Z will still have to settle this for another $500M+
It really could get to $1B for Z.
Sanction time, injunction time, & settlement time
Good day for V-vestors
Market down 2%, V up 3%
$1.25B that is a very interesting amount
ZTE is the one that said settling would cost $871M
The way this is going Kaplan could wipe out Z's cash reserves with sanctions.
But just think Z ... if you pay up, the world will be open for business again
The bid is .43
just silly!
Nope. They were awarded $400 million, but since they had sanctions for shredding documents, the judge took $250 million in sanctions back. Net $150M. The judge made them pay big for having several 'shredding parties.'
Gateway Industries gained 20,000% in a day.
A 100 bagger is just a $1B award with a 6x multiple (killer short squeeze)
Sounds good
Remember when Rambus got $250M in sanctions?
Look at that end of day 'shakedown'
Taking out the stops?
Are we on the verge?
Agree. This is now all about NDA damages and the ball is in V's court. V should ask for what ever the max $ is they can back up. $100M-$200M plus 3x damages. $300M-$600M. and ask Kaplan for a summary judgment and get this wrapped up.
They should request that ZTEUSA be shutdown until FRAND licensing is in place. That would really get Z to the table. No USA sales ... investors in Z will feel the pain.
ZTE had their chances.
I estimate V was asking for $100M retro and the $1/$.50 per smartphone/handset going forward (depending on sales) roughly $100M per year on average over the remaining life of the patents. Z probably could have negotiated to $75M plus and average of $75M per year. And, Z would have looked like a Chinese company doing the right thing in the world market.
Now, they look bad, really bad and could end up paying 3x or 4x what they could have negotiated for.
Plus, they set the terms higher for all of the other Chinese companies that need to license the same essential patents.
Huawei knows they will have to pay the same thing or get shut down in Romania, Germany, USA. Deja vu.
I hope V and Z wrap this up soon.
I am ready to see what IP V goes after next when they have $x00M in the bank and can't be bled out or manipulated by a bigger company.
So the damages in SDNY case will only be related to the NDA breach, but the NDA breach hurt V's negotiating position with all of the companies not yet licensing V's essential patents. If V's terms are $1 smartphone, .50 handsets, etc., then these damages could be 100 million and upward with very likely triple damages and sanctions.
Am I right to say that Z could be on the hook for 300M to ??? and this doesn't even include the licensing of the essential patents which Z admitted could be 800M over the life of the patents?
Unless there is a summary judgment.
Seems to me that by Z's own admission they are using Vs IP without license and they violated the NDA.
Maybe these requests are relevant and V will use them in a move for a summary judgment?
It seems irrelevant to me. Kaplan asked V what damages they are seeking. Give him those numbers or press Z for a settlement. V does not need to know what other licensing is out there with Z. Kaplan might, but V doesn't.
Or, am I missing something?
^
Buying more V this afternoon
Seven weeks ... tick, tick, tick
Okay, 4 billion, but get it from the Chinese government
Hell, they get 2 billion in interest from the USA every month.
Good one. The Chinese government should buy the patents from V (let's say 2 bill) and get all of their handset companies off the hook worldwide: ZTE, Huawei, Lenovo, Xiaomi, Haier, Vivo, etc.
Volume is low.
If the volume stays low and the big announcement hits, the short squeeze will be tremendous.
What happens when the stock you short becomes a 10 bagger?
-900%
Shorty better get their stop-loss in place for V.
And remember, your stop-loss might not help if trading is halted.
I will not stop anyone from shorting a stock, but ...
V will annihilate shorts soon. I don't see how it is less than a 3 bagger (maybe a 12 bagger). No tears...
true ... just thought there would be building interest in V with recent press
expected a slow rise until the "trading halted" explosion
Slow start ... I thought we would approach .70 today.
And like I said before, other Chinese companies that are not licensing this IP yet will have to fall in line with ZTE.
And beyond that, I would hope V gets momentum in the IP arena and other companies start beating a trail to partner with V to get licensing for their IP.
Just takes a ZTE victory to get this ball rolling.
$0 debt, $700 mill in the bank, $100+ mill coming in per year.
V is not a patent troll - They are a partner with Nokia (which is most certainly a practicing entity) with respect to the 500 wireless patents. Nokia will get a percent of the settlement.
Maybe
but ZTE wants to sell in the USA for obvious reasons and the Chinese government wants ZTE to sell in the USA for obvious reasons.
If ZTE doesn't settle or has a judgment and doesn't pay, then ZTE can kiss the USA market goodbye.
Plus, they will still have to battle V in other parts of the world. ZTE loses in Europe and India and those markets close up, then ZTE can kiss their wireless marketshare goodbye.
As a follow on, as soon as ZTE settles, the rest would be smart to license for the same terms too (Huawei).
ZTE estimates $871 million, Huawei another couple 100 million, Google 30 or 300 million.
$817 million it is then.
Can we get 2x on that?
$16 PPS ... 26 bagger
+G
"a settlement could come like lightening" - true
and the PPS always goes up with a win regardless of the potential for an appeal, but a settlement would be preferred
there's some 'thin' thinking out there
"Essentially" $1 per handset 2002 - now (and forward)
Huawei you are next...
G's new holding company Alphabet could acquire V under the guise of boosting Android sales.
V has Z in such a bind, especially ZUSA, that it could impact Android sales which affects G. Of course, G doesn't get any direct money from Android handsets, but does from GAPPS.
Alphabet acquiring V gives G's holding company a nice patent portfolio with the Lang patents and 500 Nokia patents. Of course, G doesn't necessarily care about those patents, but some of them have been a thorn in G's side.
I don't think this will happen even though Alphabet has the cash and they probably wouldn't lose money on the deal in the end.
I will stick with V and not with abc.xyz
I was going to put a sell order in at 6.50, but now I can't decide between 9.00 or 10.00.
Not my discussion on RS ...
just my attempt to squash it, again.
Just like when they put up the misinformation that V has beaucoup debt.
V has no debt!