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I feel like there was most likely a deal waiting had Fispemifene been a go... IMO any deal is dead.
This company is now going to have to move forward like a real business. How boring!! LOL!!!
They are selling a product, and they can potentially expand that here in the US.
They must and will get their overhead down... Way down...
And they should move only RayVa forward and not think of trying anything else.
It's actually going to be interesting to watch to see if Pascoe can run a real business.
Yes. There is IMO every reason to believe in increased value with Vitaros US and RayVa.
Secondly, there is no way for Sarissa to unwind their position. There simply is not the volume in this stock to get out in open market. The only path for Sarissa, is to guide the company into creating real value and getting it sold off.
Everybody is stuck and that's a positive.
Yes, I think so... What died today was the BIG dream, not the company. It has strong support from Denner, a selling product, cash to last a year + and hope in Vitaros US and RayVa.
If management gets the company lean, and laser focused on only RayVa and the Vitaros resubmission, there is no reason to think things can't improve nicely from here.
But the dream of $3, $4 or $5 is dead...
No worries LCK...
And I can't stress enough, all is not lost here. Quite the contrary. That's what Sarissa saw too... Will it be a $4 or $5 PPS? No... But it will climb from here, and a focus on getting lean, becoming a true out license company with the exception of RayVa, especially if they can find a partner for it after next trial? That's a good play.
I've also felt like there might be a play for RayVa in diabetic nerve pain, but that's maybe wishful thinking.
But on balance if US Vitaros gets a pathway forward, and Pascoe does not do any additional damage, then things will work out.
So, lets agree this is not and was not a technically driven trade. The upside is everyone is trapped into the plan B.
IMO, that is what Denner/Sarissa saw. A chance to throw the dice on something huge like Low T, but at the same time enough going on with Vitaros and RayVa to get out even if it collapsed.
My math says Denner is at about $1.19...
The Vitaros US play is worth some coin. $25 million almost instantly plus future revenue or more if APRI gets to shop it.
The results of RayVa were strong and I think the development plan is cost effective and most likely succeeds in getting orphan status and eventual approval.
Europe is a mixed bag of Vitaros results but France is proving you can sell it.
So, the real loss today was a future big win... But selling now would be a mistake. In a few months it's above a buck and change.
Back of the napkin math, with a 30% reduction in operating expenses and clinical work dropping to RayVa only which should basically have most of the next pre trial work complete they have enough cash to go for at least a year.
That should get them to the resubmission for Vitaros US... If they can find some cash "upfront" in China, Japan or somewhere else they might be able to stretch that.
If they get a FDA approval in the US for Vitaros the PPS will return to a tolerable level.
Bad day here... Might be a good time for a drink, but way better than owning RPRX which only has a failed SERM to work with.
It really hurts but honestly it's better to fail now. Imagine if the results had been marginal and Pascoe in his quest for glory kept diluting and digging deeper into debt only to fail after a $30 million phase 3?
Eicoman,
What's your handicap of the odds the FDA accepting the resub of Vitaros?
No apology needed... I understand it stings...
This game is not over, but squeezing out value here will now be a difficult task... Thank goodness there is not too much debt from this fiasco.
APRI needs to get down to just a handful of employees. Folks to work on the US Vitaros resubmission and accounting to handle filings and billing the European partners.
Pascoe should be put on a 300k per year salary until the company is CFBE. (Cash Flow Break Even)
Major staff and cost reductions must be made immediately.
They still have the US Rights to Vitaros and maybe there will be some value there. But they must get their operational costs inline with reality. They need to get leaner than lean and fast.
Pascoe remains a loser...
I'm 100% betting on Fispemifene, based on Sarissa and my own DD on Clomid and the fact that Forendo knew if the trial was going to be a bust they would have nothing left to sell in rights to the rest of the world. My only hesitation is Pascoe. And that's a major problem.
Anyone who has followed Pascoe knows his track record. I hate the way he has sucked wealth out of our tiny biotech and the way it appears he handed massive equity to Denner by repricing the warrants.
No matter the outcome I will always have a lower than low opinion of Pascoe. He's never made any investor a penny in profit and I hate that we are now dependent on this guy to deliver results.
Yeah, "IF" the results are good next week the PPS will jump to $1.70 or so before shorts move in to add pressure containing the PPS.
Pascoe and Denner, IMO will move aggressively to sell the company in the $2.50 range. Why? Because it's the best way to unwind their holdings with a huge payday.
Denner/ Sarissa would net north of $20 million on that play. Or do you think they want to throw the dice on raising more and going forward for the long haul? NOT!! They'll be gone.
Aspire too!! They make a cool bundle around $8 million I think.
And Pascoe? That guy earns millions too, and having never restored the PPS to his starting point of around $2.65
IMO, that's the plan. You see there is no other way for Pascoe or Denner to cash in. It's not like APRI is going to become a favored stock that trades with volume at levels that these guys could slowly unwind. If they sell a single share the SEC filing would tank the stock. They only have one path out and they IMO could care less about all the retail trapped in the $3s, $4s and even higher.
I agree with a buyout here too... Let's hope the Fispemifene data is solid next week and maybe we can get this thing sold to someone for $2.50
I'm not sure anyone follows that? Who would sue who?
If the shareholders vote yes who is doing the suing?
$2.50 seems like a great price if you ask me... I'd vote yes. Honestly, look at the massive volume today and it can't hold $1.50?
Explain your logic.
Would it not be awesome if Pascoe announced APRI had agreed to be acquired for $2.50 per share on the same call they announced great Fispemifene results?
Yep, $2.50 per share in a buyout is what I think we will see in the not too distant future.
I really don't think this is a technically driven rally. What we are seeing is IMO, interest in gambling.
If the news is good or bad next week is the only determining factor. My hunch is there was covering too, followed by resets as it approached and past momentarily $1.50....
Place your bets folks... Forget the charts. It's pure gambling.
Thanks Cluelessinstlouis.
You can see by the responses to you, what motivates me. Imagine folks listening to their lines of logic?
Best
Volume jumping... News leak? Not surprising... Par for the ethical course I suppose.
"One for you, Perhaps?" I have no idea what you are asking or referring to.
Many people on vacation next week for Easter.
Timing is so important and if there is good news you can count on the APRI team to fail to maximize it. Without news tomorrow morning attentions will begin to turn to vacations.
Ya know what DG? I'm actually surprised to see you posting here. It's been a while. I remember when you were convinced Vitaros would be a blockbuster and presented to much praise from fellow posters how $20 PPS could be achieved from the Vitaros royalty stream. As I recall you guys all planned to meet in Vegas to celebrate, or is my memory faulty?
I recall you saying you were done here because this forum lacked what you called a "collegial" environment. I interpreted that to mean you did not like opposing view points, but whatever the reason you went away to form a board more to your tastes where you would not have to hear my opinion.
So again, I'm surprised to hear from you, but wish you a great day.
That's true... But would you not love to have been able to hear the conversation between Pascoe, Denner and Aspire as they "negotiated" the warrant re-price and private placement?
Dirty, dirty, dirty...
I'm actually not sure which is worse? The re-pricing of the warrants from $1.73 down to $.88 or our failed CEO collecting cash bonuses when the company does not have the cash to get thru 3rd Q?
Really what did Pascoe accomplish to get that cash? I'd really like to know. Is getting Vitaros pulled from the shelf in Germany an accomplishment? How about getting the PPS to an all time low?
Pascoe is earning in salary more than 100% of the Vitaros royalty stream. This is not being the CEO of a large company. This is a tiny micro cap. His "earnings" are completely out of line based on shareholder declines, our market cap, Vitaros problems in Europe, and the glaring fact that in spite of the giveaway of equity we still lack the resources to get thru Q3 of this year.
The re-price of the warrants sets a precedent that if followed removes all risk to an investor like Denner. Pascoe should be ashamed of himself but instead he's cashing his bloated salary and has the compensation committee handing him even more.
Oh sure. It was just an amazing coincidence that Sarissa and Aspire got Pascoe to re-price the warrants and private place the stock at $.88. What a stroke of luck for them. And those 500k asks that capped the stock for days slowly moving it down down down and then disappearing after the deal? Another stroke of luck right?
And Pascoe leading the company to all time lows? Let's award him more cash on top of his salary and add to his mountain of free shares, oh and by the way, the company does not even have enough cash for base operations thru 3rd Q. Of course handing out cash bonuses are a good idea right?
Outrageous
Mean Gene,
I don't recall saying everything Pascoe has done was bad. In fact I think the addition of Fispemifene was awesome. I li,e the U.S. Rights to Vitaros but I remain very skeptical that the FDA won't require new studies.
The issue is not whether or not Pascoe has made some good moves or not.
The FACT is he has presided over huge declines in shareholder value and in his first year or two he made a big deal about cleaning up what he basically described as a mess. Well, guess what? He's plotted this course and he owns 100% of the results and it's been a disaster at least so far.
I believe he is indeed out for himself. I think the cash bonuses are beyond reason based on how close to insolvent the company is on his direction. I think if the SEC was worth a darn the 500k asks to push the PPS into the pennies were worth a look too.
In the end, Pascoe's job is to make shareholders money and on that, he's a big loser. Turn it around and I will gladly give him credit but so far his record is crashing his last company and driving us toward the cliff at 100 MPH too.
Pascoe has been nothing but a value destroyer his entire career to date. That's a fact I challenge anyone to dispute.
Wam, you better hope and pray I'm right about the Fispemifene results and the plan to unload the company shortly thereafter, because if I'm wrong this Pascoe led disaster will find new all time lows faster than you can say Pascoe is a con artist.
And IMO that's why Pascoe is "rewarded" for performance. Not the performance of the PPS, or the market cap...
The word sleazy comes to mind.
Your issue is with Pascoe, the board of directors, the compensation committee, Aspire, Denner and the kind manipulation team that was behind the 500k asks in the days leading to the finalization of the $.88 shares and re-priced warrants.
You think it was a coincidence the PPS jumped to $1.50 once the deal was done and the load on the ask was pulled?
These folks have earned every post.
Thanks DavenCT
Over the time here I have appreciated your postings as well. On Fispemifene, I do not anticipate the results to be a miss. In fact I would anticipate they will be strong.
In my due diligence I spoke to a doctor who runs a men's health clinic and who himself was on a TRT. He was very familiar with Clomid and helped to form my opinion that Fispemifene would indeed show tremendous results in increased libido, and that he (and in his opinion) many others would prefer not to prescribe Clomid in favor of Fispemifene simply from a standpoint of liability in not being off label.
While the issue of ED was still a question, he felt more than reasonably certain the results would be there as well.
So,,,, I would be inclined to believe the results will be good, and that Pascoe will do or say something that puts fear into what should be good news. Or even better, immediately announces another raise... LOL!!
I don't know what Pascoe will do to insure the PPS stays down, I'm only certain he will...
Or more likely, he agrees with great results to APRI being sold for a price that benefits his and Denners mountain of shares but never let's long time holders get back above water.
Poppey,
I would argue that what Pascoe thought, thinks, or anticipated is not relevant.
One of the things that routinely bothers me is the detachment from fact that so many seem to have.
Pascoe's job performance is not ambiguous. The CEO's only responsibility is to deliver value to the shareholders. That value in a public company is identifiable in the PPS. That's it... Nothing more...
I have listened to Pascoe muddy the waters of measurement with the assistance of the compensation committee the board of directors and in my opinion duped shareholders who somehow feel good about awarding him and his team large cash bonuses for "building shareholder value" as measured by means other than actual PPS or even market cap growth.
Phrases in addresses to shareholders like "we plan to continue building shareholder value" are in fact absurd...
Pascoe has been (to date) a total train wreck to the PPS and there is no reasonable argument to off set that. It's like judging your favorite football team on how well they rode the bus and how shinny their helmets were instead of whether or not they won the game. It's illogical, but that's all I ever seem to see.
Thanks for attacking me unprovoked. And may I say that while you cast me as a disgruntled past employee I think it more likely some of the love the company at all cost posters may indeed be current employees with you.
MG,
You post as if this current giveaway to management is a one off situation. Pascoe has delivered ZERO shareholder value growth during his 3 years as CEO. In fact Pascoe has been devastating to the PPS, share count, and balance sheet.
When Pascoe arrived there was give or take 36 million shares outstanding, $16 million in cash on hand and ZERO debt. The PPS was $2.60.
Pascoe has burned all the cash, added debt, printed millions and millions of shares and warrants and is bettin the future by handing away equity at $.88.
And Pasoe the value destroyer has collected MASSIVE share options, restricted shares, a huge salary, and the most bewildering of all large cash bonuses each year of his employment.
You can't act like this years giveaway is something new. It's not!!
Don't get me wrong, I don't care if we increase the giveaway to Pascoe by five fold. I want them richer than rich. The problem I and many others have had with this is it is compensation for "NON PERFORMANCE". If you can't deliver increased value to the investors you don't deserve to pull wealth out of a small micro cap at these levels.
He's only rewarded himself to date. That's a PPS FACT!!
While I believe the management team is in it for only themselves and have acted accordingly I also believe they have not broken any laws.
It's a clear example of how to drill your investors for profit.
You can actually make money on this stock if you always assume the worst intentions.
Example: Fispemifene results will be good. Reasoning? Management has made sure to load Denner, Aspire, and now themselves with a boatload of cheap warrants, shares, grants and restricted stock in front of results everyone knew were coming in Q1, but old hands here knew that meant as late in March as they could go.
Next: I believe given that their is no money for the next trials in the treasury and only enough money for base operations into the 3rd Q 2016 the plan is to sell off the company for a profit off Fispemifene results and perhaps the Vitaros resubmission. There will be no motivation to get much more than low $2s now that management and key players have loaded themselves with cheap shares.
Assume sleazy and you win with these guys.
Pointing out the facts about the manipulation at APRI does not make me an angry person. It makes me the only voice of reason.
Remember those mysterious 500k share asks, that were positioned to hold down the PPS in the last few days before Pascoe gave away the company near an all time low of $.88?
How do you think that happens?
And I ask again, what did Pascoe do that warrants a $88k cash bonus, and another half million shares?
APRILOV, Are you out there? I assumed you were thrilled with yesterday's filings. Right? I mean Pascoe getting an $88k cash bonus plus another 500k option grant, plus restricted stock to boot..
It's amazing to me how the entire management team gets so much compensation from a tiny biotech where investors have lost their collective shirts over the last 3 years...
They can't keep product selling in the largest market in Europe. They can't come up with the room temp device. They can't figure out Raynauds patients get symptoms in cold months, they can't line up appropriate financing when in-licensing Fispemifene leaving the company vulnerable and eventually giving away massive equity at $.88 a share and re-pricing warrants, but still, Pascoe somehow "EARNS" a another cash bonus when the company states clearly they only have enough cash to get to the 3rd Q of this year, and that is without future Fispemifene costs.
Pardon me if I think the entire thing is a joke, if not criminal.
In fact, did you read the Taglich Brothers report? They are paid pumpers by APRI and even they cut their price target. And if the first paragraph of their paid analysis they project $75 million in royalty and milestone payments "ANNUALLY" to APRI by 2020 for Vitaros. Is that a joke? Are they drinking? Gross sales in Gerrmany are currently ZERO... ZERO for God Sakes!!!
This entire enterprise seems to be venture to pull wealth from retail investors into the hands of management and a few select shareholders (Denner and Aspire). God help any long term holder of this.
SO let me get this straight.... You think APRI is going to take off on April 1st? April fools right? HAHahaha
Not just retail investors getting the shaft.
Looks to me like the paid pumping by Taglich Brothers must be over. If Apricus is no longer cutting them a check they react by cutting their PPS target.
Pascoe could care less IMO... He only needed them to hold retail in place long enough to give away the company to Denner.
No more paid pumpers needed until Denner says so.
Vitaros $300 million at non US peak sales?
Anybody remember how many times Martin, Cox and Pascoe touted that?
At the current growth rate of Vitaros sales anyone want to take a guess how long it will take to reach those numbers? Here's a clue, it's easier to measure it in centuries than individual years.
Ok, I just listened to Barbara's presentation at Roth...
Is there nobody at Apricus who knows how to give a presentation that inspires confidence? It was really terrible!! Not the content, but the delivery. Dry, unemotional, and it felt like she did not want to be doing it and had not rehearsed.
Smile thru a phone... In sales training 101 sales reps learn people can see your smile or lack there of thru the phone. Listen to that presentation and tell me Barbara had a smile. NOT!!
If that's how they are going to dial it in, why bother?