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Test my theory... Please reply/vote.
In the event Fispemifene results are strong and the PPS has risen to $1.27 will you vote yes or no to the next rounds of direct offering shares to Aspire and Sarissa with Warrants at $.88
Everyone welcome to reply. I'll start.
I vote no.
Yes... But if the shareholders were to vote the deal down that restriction is without standing.
If the Fispemifene results are positive, which I expect, I think we see the PPS well over $1.00 which will bring this issue into the forefront.
I don't know how fast shareholders will be to approve $.88 and warrants if the PPS is say $1.27
I also think we might see buying pressure begin as someone tries to upset this deal, fighting off those 500k share Asks at $.99 designed to beat down the stock.
Look, I don't know what will happen, but I know manipulation when I see it. The only defense to it is another equally greedy institutional buyer. Will it happen? Most likely not, but I'm saying there is a real chance. Heck, someone could want to do it just to mess with Denner. Ya never know.
I agree the most likely outcome is the dilution based on the deal, but in looking at the details and expecting the Fispemifene top line results, I do not rule out APRI being approached by a new institutional investor with a better deal.
The fact is the terms are public and if I were a hedge fund I would contingent on the Fispemifene results consider upsetting the deal with a better offer.
That has to be the reason APRI structured the deal to delay closing on most of the money.
So what is actually happening? Hmmmm Why would they not have closed on all the money?
Maybe, this is not so iron clad... This actually the more I look at it like an emergency lifeline of just enough money to get to the Fispemifene results. So if the results are awesome and the PPS rises why would shareholders approve of the next rounds or closings on this deal? Granted Sarissa and Aspire would vote yes but would anyone else?
What if the Fispemifene results are terrible and the PPS is sub $.70? Looks like Sarissa and Aspire reserve the right not to close on the next rounds.
This sounds crazy even to me, but it looks like everything is up in the air pending the PPS on the Fispemifene news.
The Offering is expected to take place in separate closings. The first closing (the "First Closing") occurred on January 13, 2016. At the First Closing, the Company sold an aggregate of 2,528,411 Shares and Warrants to purchase up to 1,264,204 Warrant Shares, for aggregate gross proceeds of $2.2 million. The remaining Shares and Warrants will be sold in one or more subsequent closings (each a "Subsequent Closing"), provided that prior to the Company's sale of 7,073,865 Shares and Warrants to purchase up to 3,536,932 Warrant Shares for expected gross proceeds of approximately $6.2 million, (i) the Company shall have received stockholder approval pursuant to the rules of the Nasdaq Stock Market, and (ii) unless waived by the purchasers, the weighted average price of the Company's stock as of such Subsequent Closing shall be at least $0.704 per share (the "Minimum Price Condition"), in addition to other customary closing conditions. The Company has agreed to hold a special meeting of its stockholders for the purpose of obtaining such stockholder approval no later than April 1, 2016. The sale of the remaining Shares and Warrants to Aspire Capital Fund, LLC ("Aspire") for expected gross proceeds of approximately $1.6 million may occur earlier upon Aspire's request, subject to the Minimum Price Condition and other customary closing conditions.
Carlos,
I know you hate me but I say this with sincerity.
Keep your chin up, go have a nice bottle of wine and a good meal, and forget about APRI for a bit.
Have a good night.
Carlo,
While you called me garbage, and tried to tell me I was wrong and that you had faith in Pascoe and Sarissa I knew this moment would come.
I want you to know it will now get better. It won't end the way you constantly predicted with all that Vitaros is worth $200 million and Femprox is worth a $150 million and so forth nonsense. But $.88 was pre theft of the news.
So if the results were going to be bad for Fispemifene Denner would not have bothered to dig deeper at any price.
The company will be sold. If Denner can find a buyer at anything close to $2 the company will be gone. So I don't know what your average is, but it's time to hold your nose and go deeper.
At least I get the satisfaction of saying I told ya so to the ones who told me to shut up.
The company is going to be sold and only the ones who can adjust to the Sarissa level are going to make money.
I'm on record over the past 9 months yelling, screaming, repeating myself for anyone who would listen that the company needed to raise cash if only $3 or $4 million while prices were $1.80 then $1.70, then $1.50 then $1.40 and all I got was "shut up Social, Pascoe knows what he's doing".
Well how about it?
I mean really, how hard a decision to sell a couple million shares into the news you got Vitaros US rights back when the volume was up? Do it right off the shelf...
But instead you re-price millions of warrants and print shares with more warrants at $.88?
PASCCOE has FAILED every shareholder!!!
Matt Beck??? Are you crazy?
He has ZERO to do with anything. He's a flunky... His job is to send you BS. So he's obviously great at it.
Here's a news flash... Pascoe is in charge.
Pascoe and the BODs have taken a company with no debt and $12 million in cash with an approved product in Canada and Europe and 34 million shares outstanding with a PPS of $2.50 and crushed it in 36 months to $.80!!
Pascoe has been shopping on a credit card, and now the bills are coming due. He's an idiot. I loved RayVa, and Fispemifene and even Vitaros US, but he kept buying without lining up financing as he went. So now? We're screwed as Aspire and Sarissa get the company for a song and the Long termers may NEVER see $2.50 again.
Yeah, Matt Beck's our problem...
I recommend each shareholder reach out to the company and ask for Pascoe's resignation and that the company officially hire a third party firm for the purpose of facilitating the sale of the company.
The company should halt any and all additional clinical activity beyond the needed work to complete the closing of the data on Fispemifene 2B.
The company should immediately reduce it's headcount to reflect it's intention to be sold, maintaining only the most essential persons for the purpose of accounting, billing and SEC reporting.
This financing only served to maintain the current path of continued shareholder value destruction.
No... The CT Order was related to a non-disclosure on the 10Q from November 2015.
I get so tired of know nothings telling me I'm wrong. Go learn to read.
In addition in connection with the Offering, on January 12, 2016, the Company has entered into a warrant amendment (the "Warrant Amendment") with the holders (the "Holders") of the Company's warrants to purchase common stock issued in February 2015 (the "February Warrants"), including the Sarissa Investors, pursuant to which the exercise price of the February Warrants is being reduced to $0.88 per share, and the date upon which such February Warrants become exercisable is being changed to six months and one day from the date of the First Closing for this Offering. The Warrant Amendment with respect to a given Holder is conditioned upon the First Closing of the Offering for such Holder, and to the extent the First Closing for such Holder does not occur, the Warrant Amendment shall be null and void with respect to such Holder.
Back of the envelope math.
Assuming Sarissa is evenly split on the deal with Aspire and factoring the adjustment to their original warrants their new avg. PPS is $1.19
This does not include their profit from the short they most likely pushed over the last 3 months while making Pascoe squirm...
This company is 100% for sale... Anyone doubt me?
Dude!!! Wake up!!! They just diluted the ever loving crap out of the shareholders and Pascoe only raised enough money to maintain operations thru this year with NO money for additional trials. Develop Fispemifene thru phase 3? Are you drunk?
They do NOT have the money for the next trial. They only bought the time to get sold. That's it!!!!
I still think the plan is to get APRI partnered or sold but based on this deal I would move my target for a takeout under $2.
OMG it's worse than I thought. Sarissa got their original warrants from the raise in Feb 2015 moved from $1.82 to $.88.
Holy god Pascoe!!!
Carlo, the only question Pascoe had was do I keep my salary? Yes? Then great I'll do whatever, #%€* the shareholders.
How many times over the last 9 months did I yell and scream to raise money while the PPS was up? This company/ Pascoe and the board are worthless. Unbelievable.
Who knows? Could be information about why Germany is not selling too I suppose.
Well if the BODs held a vote on acceptance of any deal that was conditional on non publicly disclosed information or on data still being collected that would qualify for a CT Order... But so would lots of things.
When I listen to Alex Denner speak, I hear M&A coming and at lower price than many Longs want.
http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/alex-denner-on-biotech-selloff/vi-CCrvDp
APRILOV,
We agree... I sit between a love of the pipeline, respect for Neil, and Barbara, and Denner, and shock at how poorly the company has done at keeping funding levels up and confidence high among both shareholders and potential investors.
I too believe there is a plan, and I don't know what it is. I can only speculate based on what is observable.
This is a new thing for me, in that after 20 years of playing with stock I've never had a company like this have so little cash, and watched the PPS just fall and fall in the face of the cash crunch with no attempt to address the situation.
This is what leads me to believe a deal has been struck pending something. That something seems most likely to me the Fispemifene results as that would have such a material effect on the value should they not meet their endpoints.
I don't know if there is a deal for the entire company, or a partnership for part or all of the pipeline. I don't know!!
But I do know if Pascoe and the BODs allowed the company to run entirely out of cash and fall into non Nasdaq listing compliance with nothing in hand the failure should cost each and everyone of them their positions.
Say what you want dude... But I don't misquote you in an attempt to make some point that only serves to make me feel better.
And I don't understand nor do I care that you don't understand the difference between being a fan of Fispemifene and saying the company is structurally broken.
Get it???? They could have a magic formula for getting fast food to make you sexy, but it does not matter if it will take 3 years to get to the market and they have zero cash 50 million shares outstanding and a PPS of $.82, especially if you are a long term holder from $4 or $5 or even $3... and maybe $2...
The "STRUCTURE" of the business is broken.
I love Fispemifene... I have since the day Neil brought it in.
I'll bet you're right on that Hentied. I would imagine that one condition would be to maintain Nasdaq listing compliance and under a buck is not.
how pathetic to only to only post part of my statement APRILover.
I was saying that in the event Fispemifene went all the way to FDA approval under APRI that then paying the $45 million fee to Forendo would be no problem.
Next time quote the entire statement.
Mean Gene,
I think the price depends on what is being purchased... In a single bid for the entire company? I could see Pascoe taking $2.70 PPS especially if the PPS is $.60 by then and at the current pace it could be.
Hentied,
Pascoe and the BODs have frightened the living daylights out of the market. The market has it 100% correct...
The funding issue has been the issue for the last 8 or 9 months as the stock has gone lower and lower. The market is not giving a market cap of $41 million. It's more likely giving a market cap of closer to $80 million but assuming the current share count will double. Get it???
By running the cash to as close to zero as they have and the entire world seeing Vitaros not selling in a volume sufficient to really support much of anything at present they have signaled they must raise. And by delay, delay, delay and delay in addressing the issue, investors get more and more cautious trying to get out of the way of an event that looks more and more destructive with each passing drop in the PPS.
Pascoe may have led this company to it's death. Meaning in order to move forward will require a raise you won't believe with warrants and no restrictions on shorting or the company is basically already sold pending some event, like Fispemifene results.
Value's VooDoo...
I always appreciate Value's posts on the links real or imagined between APRI and the broader market and specifically biotech.
The issue I have with it has been, that APRI NEVER WENT UP in the biotech hey day of the last few years and has been crushed in relationship to the broader sell offs.
As I write this post the IBB is tearing forward up 3.53% while APRI is down 4%.
Who can guess where we will end up... Betting APRI in connection to the broader biotech market the past 3 years has been a loser, but that could change today.
See Carlo, that's what's most frustrating about you. You cheerlead all the time and write your Seeking Alpha garbage and the facts is you don't know what you are taking about.
Why don't you do yourself a favor and go read the Aspire deal? They, and all their associates are prohibited from shorting APRI stock. Go read it!!!!
Try to learn something.
This is why Pascoe stinks. He has his biggest supporters hoping for a bounce to $1.50 for a potential raise at $1.82? You do realize he could have raised $12 million at those prices via Aspire thru most of the last 12 months. So now we need the stock to double to get there?
What kind of leadership is this?
Hentied,
If Fispemifene gets approval paying $45 million would be no problem. I doubt the company would even need to dilute to do it. Bankers would be standing in line to provide financing. And to that point, everything about the deal with Forendo was back end loaded. We paid them $5 million sure but they took our stock for a major chunk and while we did pick up debt we used it for the phase 2 trial so it was hardly wasted.
Forendo working with Neil Morton and we now know Sarissa, structured the deal to make sure Fispemifene would advance. As for 260 million in milestones over the sales life of the drug? Who cares? We don't know what sales volume triggers the milestones but I think you would be looking at massive sales.
By all reason the Fispemifene deal is and was a huge win for Apricus and you can bet with Forendo redoing their website and attending #JPM2016 they expect our trial went well and it's in their best interest to keep Fispemifene moving too.
All that said a big pharma will want Fispemifene in the U.S., along with RayVa, and Vitaros our pipeline is in my opinion much more valuable than the current market cap and validation will come with the Fispemifene results.
Yes there are money problems but the pipeline is strong for a company under $50 million market cap.
I'm not kidding. I'm sure Pascoe loved your last article. I'd give my right arm to be a fly on the wall when he read your new one detailing his performance.
Hahahahahaha
Wow Carlo, those are some great points. Have you ever considered writing a Seeking Alpha article on how Pascoe is a failure as follow up to the VVUS APRI golden marriage?
Hahahahahaha.
Thanks for the laugh. For months and months I was wrong right?
That would be delightful but you would think Pascoe would have thrown his shareholders a bone and included it in the 2016 value drivers.
I would not count on Femprox being sold or partnered.
Again,,,, today it's a zero.... Tomorrow maybe a hero, but until we see the FDA accept the NDA? It brings no value.
Don't expect any value from Viatros US. The market IMO rightfully so has a prove it stance on it. I don't think people actually believe the FDA will accept answers to the CRL without a new trial. If that's the case it's just another cost Apricus has no way to fund. So the appropriate value now IMO is zero on it.
That said it was a smart pick up for the chance.
Aprilov, this is an open forum to discuss ideas and thoughts on this stock. It's not supposed to make you happy and it's not restricted to those you feel meet your expectation of behavior. There are set rules and as long as he is following them you have no right to tell him to leave.
Look OC, we are really in uncharted waters with this thing. It's hard to tell what's going on. There are a few major positives that help me stay Long the stock.
1. There is only $10 million in debt so the odds of this thing going belly up are very very low, which gives a shareholder some runway of time to see things develop.
2. Sarissa no matter what is in for a much higher PPS. $1.80 give or take, and the warrants they hold are worthless if this thing won't turn around. Even if Sarissa doubled down with another $12 million their average PPS would still be deep in the red and they don't want to just break even.
3. Fispemifene is a winner.
4. Vitaros at this point is free money. No matter how large or small and the RTD is coming so that will help it along and maybe even collect a few milestones.
So what the market maker is doing is of no real concern... It's going to get better, but it might get worse first. Go Vikings!!
Hentied, Sorry to hear you took the losses on 23k shares, but hopefully you did it in 2015 for your taxes and you sold before the crash from over $1.50
I'm going to disagree on your assessment of the outlook. Not argue mind you, just disagree.
The APRI pipeline is undervalued IMO. The potential market for Fispemifene is again, IMO, a billion annually between approval and off patent. The age of Americans is +40...
RayVa, is a nifty little product too... I think it could easily rack up nice sales. I could see a tube in lots of pocket books. I've never met a woman who did not complain about the cold on her hands.
Lot's of value, can be unlocked if they just get the pathway cleared for people to get in. Right now? No way... But once the finance plan is done? Then yes. Institutional buyers will come in. "IF" the company does not have a deal in place to be bought out or merged.
$44 million for Fispemifene will be a steal. And that's the market cap today!
I believe the company has a financing plan as well in the form of being sold, merging, or major partnership on one or more pipeline candidates.
I've been 100% clear on that. That is what I expect to see pending solid data from the Fispemifene trial.
I've been equally clear about the truth of the Vitaros sales situation in Europe and my opinion of the FDA approving Vitaros without additional trials.
I'm actually bullish on the company in spite of the disaster in the PPS, but because I don't share the fantasy on Vitaros or misrepresent what the company has said or try to make more of the sales figures than there is you and others here attack me as Court...
Anyone reading the thread can see who's truthful.