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Every single entity with the potential to buy FXCM is crapping on them and lowering target prices. Why pay more than you have to?
8 million is nothing.
Keep in mind ... daytrading along with the traffic on this site make up less than 1% of the volume of this ticker. Nothing anyone says on here about their actions have the slightest impact on the movement of FXCM. This is a well traded $billion+ ticker ... its behavior is influenced by the major stakeholders.
I'd bet that some of this is people positioning themselves for a favorable outcome (from FXCM's pov) in the Greek elections this weekend.
I'm not going to say it. As badly as I want to, I'm not. But I will strong imply it.
There won't be lawsuits of any significance. 99% settled out of court for pennies. This is low hanging fruit.
Yup. Decline in oil prices. Volatility in the markets, in general. Forex turmoil due to high margins.
Yes, someone will be called in to cover this hole if for no other reason than to protect the markets from shock.
Does anyone think that FXCM was the only one hit by this?
$5.25 is probably a fair price given how expensive FXCM was compared to its peers and I suspect that this will be rolled in to Schwab or similar.
I am. Here's why.
1) Schwab is probably buying this. "Declined to comment" doesn't mean "no", it usually means "we're in negotiations and can't talk about it."
2) All of the well publicized analysts trashing the ticker are representing companies that, in one way or another, have a stake in the sale of FXCM. Conspicuously quiet are the less well known, but far more accurate analysts. Google is your friend.
3) There is talent in this company and it will recover. Either in the hands of a Schwab, or on it's own.
4) Leucadia bailed FXCM out with a loan that was crafted to hedge itself against failure. But they loaned them the money anyway despite the risk because they know that FXCM has strong roots. A little bit of reputation tarnish and some weakness are not going to kill it.
5)The short interest jumped probably because Schwab hasn't confirmed that it will buy FXCM. It may decide not to which would kill the price short term but likely lead to a buyout by another firm.
6) Any number of other dark horse candidates will be salivating over this.
tl;dr: I'm riding this out and ignoring any analyst that I can connect back to a major stakeholder in any of the major players on either side.
http://www.benzinga.com/news/rumors/15/01/5173689/former-gft-manager-of-global-risk-says-charles-schwab-fxcm-buyout-rumor-ab
http://www.benzinga.com/news/15/01/5173628/charles-schwab-spokesperson-declines-comment-on-rumor-related-to-talks-with-fxcm
http://forexmagnates.com/fxcm-share-buyout-table-charles-schwab-emerges-possible-suitor/
Yup. Anyone here that thinks they have -any- effect on this is delusional.
Keep in mind, the people on ihub represent 0.01% of the trading market on most securities, this one included.
The people yelling in here are yelling to a very small audience that collectively, might account for 1% of the volume trading on FXCM.
I wouldn't worry. This is a solid company. They are shopping for a buyer and intend to sell by April. It's easy to flip with all the turmoil, and that's what we're seeing.
There are a -ton- of daytraders flipping this right now and that's all this is.
Wait for the news to be official ...
options, options, options ... but the upward pressure will ultimately win. The radically large buys are a good signal.
Hmm, mine quoted me $75 to make an after hours trade. Might be time to switch.
woof! 208800 buy after close
Aftermarket will be interesting. Most retail won't pay the aftermarket fees but institutions will.
See? The market can absorb a lot of this turmoil. Longs ... really longs ... see this at 10+ come april.
No worries. Think about it: there's talent in this company as evidenced by the fact that is is 1) still healthy and 2) was recently a formidable forex trading platform.
They will absorb losses, sure ... but, long term ... they'll be right back up to doing good business and back up in the teens.
"we bet"
That says nothing.
It'll flirt with the high 2's for a little while longer then start climbing again. This isn't a P&D ... there's no little group of amateurs manipulating a penny stock to the tune of $300mil. This is just triggers. Give it a little time.
Prob just automated orders being processed or options. give it a few minutes. there's enough volume for any sellers to be bought out by the buyers after 15 minutes or so.
It's a healthy company with a substantial chance to pay off their loan early. People are seeing that through the turmoil. Give it time. This thing is going to swing all over the place over the next few days to weeks.
Half the people in this security think it's doomed, and the other doesn't. Each half thinks the other is dead wrong. This is a war of attrition and looks like the pro's are winning.
Upward momentum is still there. The truly large orders are all green.
no worries. long
The volume ... 105mi ... $300mil traded ... that's nuts.
They're a forex market broker. Greece has elections coming up and because Greece is a complete mess, that sort of thing always jiggles the EU/Euro which affects forex markets and consequently forex market brokers.
No, I still have a position. I'm long on this. But, there's not going to be a lot of upward momentum until the Greek elections are over. Then there will be some speculation come April on who the buyer of FXCM will be ... that's when things get interesting.
This might pop a few times and flirt with $4 but the analysts will stepping all over each other trying to call a future for this. That uncertainty will keep the price at or below $4.
We could also see more "investigations" in to the company by law firms. I don't pay attention to that sort of nonsense. But, if I were trying to buy the company, I would publicly have my law firm investigate the company for wrongdoing before making an offer...specifically, but unofficially to put downward pressure on the price. So, expect that news, plan accordingly.
Gird your loins folks.
My guess: gap down to ~$2 in the morning with a quick rebound to $2.50+ by mid-morning finishing just over $2.60 tomorrow EOD.
Not being "held down" ... things just take time ... we're moving ships. Market sentiment hasn't yet changed with the news. Give FXCM time to stabilize and for the smoke to clear and this will start to trend up. There's still a looming election in Greece to deal with.
It's still a healthy company. This is just market turmoil from an unprecedented move by the franc. Give it time and be glad you got in under 15.
+1 to this.
Leucadia picked a forex trading houses that was struggling but not dead and backed that horse to position itself in the market for a fat paycheck once the less stable, but less well known forex traders wither and die in the carnage. This is strategic positioning in a market that is still in turmoil. Give this time, reap the rewards ... turn 10k in to 50k.
True. No one is trying to sue Switzerland...yet. And, that would make a lot more sense than trying to sue FXCM. It's laughable that anyone listened to the lawyers in the first place.
Well, this is a good long play ... they will sell in April and someone will pick up the client base for a song along with the talent and infrastructure. Given that they are being public about the sale, I'd be skeptical of any news you near about target prices being below $1.00. They could be drivers deflating the stock price and driving out weak hands to make the apple sweeter come april. If it's trading in the $4.00+ range by then, or more likely $8.00+ then it''ll be that much more expensive for any purchaser. Prepare for a lot of analysts to crap all over this ... but look at the historical performance and talent pool for guidance...imho.
The only worry is if they sold the options at $2.50 ... that could be a problem. But so far, it doesn't look that way. If it passes $2.50, i'll feel much better. As is, all O/S have been purchased. This will be an interesting day.
This will be up and down all day but I suspect a solid $3 eod. Doubt it'll gain much more than that unless there's verifiable, positive, well publicized news from the company. I doubt too many analysts will affect the behavior -- it's low hanging fruit...too tempting.
$300mil is a drop in the bucket. They'll pay this off within 2 years or restructure it within a year. The terms are designed to light a fire under them and they know it.
There's value in the talent. No one could predict what the swiss did, but the company was doing well, and will eventually do very well again. This one is a long, slow ride back to 10+.
here it comes ...
Pretty much.