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If and when it starts showing us...
1-the money
2-steady and/or meaningful increases in non healthcare revenues
3-progress to and through break-even free cash flow from operations
4-an improving balance sheet
5-solid significant unit growth in new business lines
6-gross margin and operating margin expansion
7-a business model that makes sense at various revenue levels and allows investors and prospective shareholders a path to profitability that justifies an increase in the current $63mm market cap
Nothing could be further from the truth with no respect to your first bullet...
My 2 cents
#1 Professional shorters never lose.
#2 There are plenty of shares out there to be sold when the buyers are ready to make their move.
#3 The so called shorts are really MM's selling against their box of retail sellers. Don't expect the huge short covering bonanza to happen.
Please be careful when throwing around numbers and certain words or phrases.
For one, lta's $23.7mm to the bottom line really should be to the top line.
Many have misstated shares outstanding. Guru is right. Shs o/s are now up to a bit above 58mm as of the most recent quarterly govt filing. And keep in mind, that share count increased 9.4% yr over yr. And those nol's are hardly chicken feed.
Further, the numbers submitted by guru earlier today and over the past few weeks are one person's reasoned guess based on a number of assumptions, and only that. I won't say they aren't possible over the intermediate or longer term, say 2-4 years out, but don't expect instant gratification. I have and I'm sure guru and dshade have seen and/or listened to plenty of mgmt presentations that purport to show huge potential revenue ramps based on a certain assumed small market share of a large and growing - or just plain huge - end market. An end market that may or may not be appropriate.
99% of those forecasts never materialize into reality. Perhaps ECSL will be one of the rare exceptions. But of course, Mills and Co have wisely not trotted out any guidance, so the numbers that have been submitted are by one or more investors or observers trying to get their arms around this company and their thoughts on it's potential.
The market cap is about $67mm. Reported sales thus far are minimal.
Is this stock a slam dunk? No. Does it appear to have the potential to be a 10 bagger or more? Sure, but it will take several contracts of significance, excellent management of working capital, operations, quality control and process to turn that potential into the reality of a much higher valuation. Competition doesn't stay dormant for long. Buyer beware.
A pleasant long weekend to all.
Many of your questions and points are virtually identical to those I raised about a year ago and a meaningful portion of my posts were wiped off the board. Let's see what happens this time. Totally agree with you in that probably 80-90% of the posts on this board are a waste of readers' time.
Post 17481 at 4:14.43pm
GasBuddy News Article
Student teams rev their engines for Shell Eco-marathon in Motor City
fuel fix -- University of Houston engineering seniors Roberto Guerra and Alberth Chavez have a big job this weekend.
Flanked by their crew of local high school students and the 60-pound steel frame of a bullet-shaped car at Houston City Hall on Wednesday, they said they’re planning to test out the car’s methane-fueled engine that could, if all goes smoothly, get the equivalent of 200 to 300 miles to the gallon.
Getting it right would bring them one step closer to the Shell Eco-marathon in Detroit next month, a fuel-efficiency competition that will draw more than 1,000 college and high school students from around the United States and from Brazil Guatemala Mexico and Canada.
They’ll see who can get the most out of their souped-up vehicles using compressed natural gas, biofuels gasoline and diesel.
Read the Full Article
http://www.bostongasprices.com/news/Student_teams_rev_their_engines_for_Shell_Eco_marathon_in_Motor_City/99349_603610/index.aspx
And that is exactly the point. Company mgmt made the mistake almost 13 months ago of - in hindsight - setting expectations of a meaningful agreement from a revenue standpoint happening fairly soon after that January 29, 2014 press release. Whether it was unrealistic expectations or hubris will be revealed with the further passage of time, but at the margin, management credibility took a hit in the eyes of some existing shareholders as well as many prospective investors. Company deal makers must be extremely careful when forging deals with much larger companies with more resources, financial and otherwise. Less than ironclad deals with respect to intellectual property rights and royalties can be fatal. This is now a show-me story, and only meaningful progress toward a significant revenue ramp - be it the apparent deals with Pilot and Flying J, further announcements of significant partnerships, and/or demonstrated progress of important metrics in future quarterly reports - will justify further upside in the current market cap near $100mm.
That email was dated January 17. Why wasn't it emailed on Tuesday?
Judging by stock reaction or lack thereof, this now looks like a show me stock, as in show me meaningful numbers that start to justify a revaluation to a higher market cap
What we want are signed, sealed and delivered product orders of decent magnitude to justify the current market cap and then some. Today's press release is okay at the margin, but not a needle mover.
Clearly the press release of a year ago anticipated a deal that subsequently was deep sixed by a much larger potential customer or partner that was gaming mills et al ad nauseum
A lot of us would appreciate an audience with the company CEO via a conference call where everyone can benefit from other's questions and observations. Q&A with a non-employee ir person is not a worthy substitute. Not even close.
Should paragraphs 4, 5, 6 have quotes at the start? Are those Mills' words?
Very much agree. We're in the same camp. Most companies that choose to or default to substandard public and investor relations are and continue to be stock market under performers and eventually penny orphans. selective investor relations sooner or later invites the sec to look closer
As I noted 3 months ago, I reaccumulated a position at the end of October at an average price just above a buck a share.
What I don't get is you and others saying things like don't get left behind when you also note from time to time you're adding to your position. That's very strange and rare behavior.
The chart says nothing of the kind. The chart is a narrowing triangle making lower highs and higher lows with no recent volume strength of note.
When?
Any day, week, month, year, decade...
On the subject of short sellers, know this.
If you are an owner of ecsl shares - or shares of any other company - you can make it a lot more difficult for the shorters as some regulars on this board are well aware.
If the shares you own are in a margin account, direct your broker first thing tuesday to remove them from being on margin and therefore shortable by others, and have them switched to the cash portion of your account. If the world was completely fair, and those shares were held short by another investor, he/she would have to buy back/cover those shares, and that would presumably put upward pressure on the stock and enhance any short squeeze that might materialize, say on tuesday morning.
I am happy to read that at least some brokers are actually asking for shares to borrow as opposed to allowing naked shorting to go on within their purvey.
Just google ECSL Seeking Alpha to easily find grouperman's seeking alpha piece dated 8:09am today titled
Encountercare (ECare) Solutions - De-Boosting This Energy Promotion
You'll find there are about 57 people who have signed up on SA to receive any real-time alerts written about ECSL. You are free to sign up and join that list. It has nothing to do with any other email lists or sites.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2825926-encountercare-ecare-solutions-de-boosting-this-energy-promotion
I did increase my position this afternoon. As i've said before, I often take advantage of big volume spikes and flushes. It doesn't always work, but the odds are much better than even that one will be well rewarded within days of the big volume day.
FYI, it's 13 days short of a year after the binding letter of intent presser was released.
And I disagree that he is dotting all the i's and crossing the t's prior to announcing multiple agreements or deals. At this stage, if he has even one meaningful deal that is signed, sealed and delivered, he best announce it, as that would be the definition of a material event that a company must make public via a press release at the very least. An accompanying conference call would be of value to all as well.
As others have mentioned, it appears to be time for Mills to issue a progress report and milestone goals for 2015.
In reference to - as you said - the last two articles i posted were:
I didn't offhandedly debunk anything w/o reading it. I just want to make darn sure about timing and frames of references when articles are cited and/or cut and pasted. If it's a new press release or article etc., label it as such. If it is not, give the date it was originally published.
Many following this board probably assume all such news is fresh off the presses. That is not always the case. Same for submissions by short sellers. Often their pieces are rehashes of prior knowledge with little or nothing that is truly new.
Thank you
Can I assume none of these news or headlines cited are new fresh news or press releases?
what are the datelines for those two article headlines?
Obama orders agency to move to all alternative fuel vehicles by end of 2015
Obama Administration Buying 116 Plug-In Vehicles for Fleet, Led by GM Volt
Sure sounds like the company's own operatives should by all over the reps and other powers-that-be in its home state of Florida
And that's tangible book... No bad will or other intangibles on the b/s.
Your cash number however looks overstated or not as of 3q14 release.
And the other question is how much debt the company currently has
VW was the most heavily shorted stock on the planet at that time, so it's not a realistic analogy. Days to cover was around two dozen. Crowded trade was an understatement. It made the yen carry trade look like a picnic in comparison. It was the ultimate lesson in not joining an already crowded trade
Only on a news release of an agreement or contract of substance
I want to assure our stockholders that our company is in fact pursuing the sale of our product line EcoFlex 96, Dynamo Cetane Booster and Dynamo Octane Booster.
This sentence can be read a number of ways. To me, this perhaps unwittingly suggests mills is in negotiations to sell the entire energy- related product line to a willing and able acquirer, rather than continue to pursue a series of deals with countries, states, provinces, or companies.
Call it semantics or what you will, but sometimes a single word or phrase change can mean the difference between night and day.
I, for one, would like clarification.
Robertson - unless there has been a change sInce sept 30 - is not an employee. He is an outside consultant who appears to be compensated mostly or entirely with stock options or grants.
Instead, there were two similar promotional emails yesterday from CyberFuels Inc titled FREE Dynamo shipping!
CyberFuels, Inc.
December 11, 2014
Holiday FREE shipping!
I want thank you for all your support of CyberFuels and our Dynamo products.
We are offering FREE shipping for the rest of December on any online orders of Dynamo. Please use the coupon below.
DEC14FS
https://www.cyberfuelsinc.com/store.aspx
Happy Holidays from all of us at EncounterCare!
Thanks again for your support.
Sincerely,
Chris Doherty
EncounterCare Solutions, Inc.
Sad that he can't even write a grammatically correct sentence.
Totally agree wIth your second paragraph, and in fact noted many of the same points during feb-mar after joining this board in january. As is almost always the case, projection of the timing of predicted events are a lock to 'move to the right'.
The terms and scope of any signed and sealed deals that may happen will indicate whether or not equity financings prove necessary to fund what may be huge early production working capital requirements. Several on this board have opined that won't be necessary, but until deals and/or jv's become reality, none of us know.
And it has become painfully clear that with one possible exception, no contributor to this board has even the remotist idea of the timing of any market moving news or event that 'likely' will occur, myself included (3q release and supplemental information).
Out of thin air, as I'm sure you well know.
Typical behavior of companies with low or no revenues is for the company and/or one or more of its investors to market the '1% solution'... if it grabs 1% market share of some real or imagined end market, projected revenues and alleged earnings power make the current market cap look like a screaming bargain.
In reality, less than one in 20 such wannabes exist as an ongoing concern five years out.
At least ecsl has a non-energy revenue stream.
If any of you are members on the gas buddy web site and know how to post a news article, submit the Florida news release
Your type of buyer scares the heck out of me. The fewer of you, the better for the investors here
No. I got back in, having re-accumulated virtually the same number of shares i sold during the mid january and february volume spikes about 40% below my average sale price during 1q14. See my posts back during that period.
Having been proved wrong about my educated guess that 3q results and supplemental info would be released last Friday, i'll take another stab at that timing, namely Friday a week from now, the last business day in November.
Pleased to see the daily stock action has been very positive and constructive over the past week after going vertical from a buck the first two weeks of the month. Whether and when it can bust through the short term price ceiling remains to be seen.
So I'm still waiting for those elusive signed contracts and/or jv's.
Well, shares o/s increased 9.6% from FY 6/2013 to FY 6/2014, so I'll just wait until I see terms of whatever deals come along, if and when such info becomes available to investors
Between you, fman, and kdad's point, I think the basic modeling thought process is reasonable.
One huge unknown is the ultimate denominator if and when sales start to meaningfully accelerate.
In other words, shares outstanding.
I and fman have brought up the general subject of working capital needs multiple times this year. If mills & co can negotiate various supply contracts and or joint venture deals where the other party fronts all, most, or a significant portion of upfront startup costs, then dilution over the next 2-3 years may not be that onerous. But if they can't, the acceleration of dilutive equity financings may end up being typical of small companies at the cusps of their growth phases.
Whatever you model, don't be sucked into the sell side obfuscation ruse of using current shares o/s - aprox 56-57mm - as the denominator 2-3 years out. If things go well, the fully diluted shares - about 62mm I believe - is just a base number.
Know this. Growth isn't free.
FYI that second link relative to USA energy usage looks like it's four years old, so be careful.
Meanwhile, what's the second reference (2) after "consumed"?
www.otcmarkets.com/stock/ecsl/filings
Whatever you do, ignore all commentary on this and other boards related to the notion of very little overhead supply based on level 2 visible book. Most sellers won't show their intentions in advance. They'll either hit bids or put in sell orders near or just below current ask
Clearly, anticipating news release and filing tomorrow, and positive news - whatever it might be. 3Q new energy product sales will be illuminating
Clearly as well, the stock has broken out over $1.10-$1.20 resistance range, but not with a volume spike i'd like to see. Maybe, today's volume will be convincingly higher than recent days
My guess is company will release quarterly report and supplemental information some time Friday, probably after market close. The last time the release deadline of the 15th of the month was on the weekend was 9 months ago February, and that info was released on Friday 2/14
www.otcmarkets.com/stock/ecsl/filings
As long as Midwest ethanol states like Iowa etc continue have the upper hand in congress, methanol would seem to be going nowhere in the u.s. While there is a decent chance the elephants will take control of the senate when tomorrow's results are finished being tabulated, I don't know whether there will be key changes in representation or leadership that will swing the lawmakers' collective view on ethanol away from existing policy and supports.
Where did that quote come from?
"..the increase in MPG averaged over 26% in 4 rounds of fill ups."
looks like the marketing and ir folks are going to provide some 'news' in the form of testimonials...
EncounterCare Solutions, Inc
October 16, 2014
Dear ..........,
I want thank you for all your support of Encounter Care Solutions and CyberFuels.
We are making great progress!
We would like to gather and post on our website testimonials from our customers who have tried our Dynamo products.
If you or anyone you know would like to provide feedback to us we would greatly appreciate it. Please send all testimonials to feedback@dynamobooster.com
You can also "Like us" and post your comments directly on our FaceBook page.(http://www.fb.com/dynamobooster).
Thanks again for your support.
Sincerely,
Chris Doherty
EncounterCare Solutions, Inc.