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Agreed .. keytruda will do $10B sales this year ... you bet Merck is looking for winner combos .. If data is good, they will acquire Medivir for $500M easy to $1B
As I said, if birinapant shows good data over next 12 months (still too early) then potential is very large > $20 a share
So BK risk will be greatly diminished and $1 is conservative option value
By the way accumulating 1M shares at avg 10 cents is only $100k .. nothing
You have good points .. All I care about is birinapant data over next 12 months ... If good, we will eventually a $20 stock and $1 now
You know what I think
Everything is 100% transparent
Only thing we need to know is if birinapant works well ..
I don’t believe in conspiracy theories
But data on 22mg dosage should be coming in and over next 12 months
Hopefully good :)
If birinapant makes a small splash and shows has oomf ... I expect potential royalty of $1B over its life time to tlog shareholders gets valued at 5% today .. or about $1.25 a share .. this % to increase as more interest comes , if it comes .. if approved , it will get to $25 a share
Milestones and royalty for birinapant to tlog shareholders are quite attractive
5% for sales up to $500M
10% for sales above $1B
Plus $100M milestone
Tlog is now vaulting this income stream at $1M which could change if birinapant shows it can be a partner to keytruda
Remember if efficacy data is promising for the selected dose of 22mg, then birinapant has potential to find a room in oncology spaces as a partner for keytruda
This makes senior debt of say $50M
quite manageble and tlog shareholder could be valuable option on future sales of birinapant
(my $50M assumes debt and intersex of $60M in 2024 minus $10M for milestone for enrolling first patient in a P3 and no milestone from HDAC compound )
I think 2024 was picked as likely date there would be enough data avail on HDAC and birinapant to judge if there is future to these compounds or not
I still think make or break for tlog holders is future of birinapant in oncology in combo with keytruda
Keytruda is now selling $9B/year and growing
Safety data at high dose and study open label means data will come out on efficacy now and over next 12 months
Binirapant trial is open .. primary is mid 2021, but I think they will get a pretty good idea how good compound is by end of this year or mid next year at the latest
But high dose started in oct 3018
Sorry .. asco data is P1
Remember keytruda sales is approaching $10B this year
A good match for it is a big deal and tlog holders get 7.5% on avg (sale bet 500M to $1B)
Share OS is 40M .. so if market thinks this will be a drug in combo with keytruda .. Market will price $1 a share EPS
So my conclusion is that birinapant will be key driver of shares and asco data is a good lead to it
From my read .. birinapant (? Spelling and don’t know what it is) gives tlog about $120M in milestone and also 5% to 10% royalty
So move up could be due to asco meeting in 10 days .. if data is very good, then tlog shares could become vary valuable as total debt is now only about $40M (assume 8% for 3 years and base of $33M in 2016)
And milestones and royalty void dwarf it is birinapat is thought as a good match for keytruda
I can’t find HDAC milestones .. no royalty on net sales attached to this one
Total debt due June 2024 is about $60M
Beyond this $60M in June 2024 , shareholder get paid
Shares OS = 25M + 12M (issued to debt holders in APA) = 37M
looking at the Asset Purchase Agreement ..
Debt just after APA is $43.7 + $1.3 - $12 = $33M At 8% a year
They also got 12.2M convertible shares (preferred stock series A)
Do you know total debt outstanding and how many shares they convert to if all converted
Sounds too complicated .. why don’t you ask mr. Zyngler if he is still involved with tlog
Probably , we small holders need to contact him or have a representation ..
Does not hurt, given outstanding data from remis .. binapart data to be seen more fully soon
Who is representing tlog sharehokders now?
Medivir should list in USA
I think these drugs licensed by Medivir are billion $ drugs
But first Medivir stock needs to reflect it,
Then tlog
Wish they had
If they are looking for a partner, then they will prob need to figure how to split rev and costs .. costs include trial costs, marketing and manufacturing costs and also money obligations to tlog
Tlog started acting like a CVR after it sold all its assets to Medivir .. there is no cash to show here
If you know Medivir talking to tlog, it is good news and possibly related to transfer of some or all milestone obligations to the Medivir partner for P3
Milestones are due when p3 meets primary
Drug is good, Market is large enough .. $1B annually .. We need greed and acumen to get this started .. Does Medivir CEO has it in him to get it done ?
P3 needs to form with a strong partner and then Tlog becomes speculative stock worth a couple of $
Right now , it is not even speculative .. it is huge gambling
drug is good, but P3 partner and start of P3 remains to be seen
Then again .. Medivir market cap is only $50M .. Medivir needs this P3 start for their own sake
Should be $50M with start enrolling of a P3 trial .. and $150M if P3 meets primary
Yes .. at 3 cents a share, market cap is $1.5M or priced for BK
The data is exceptionally good. Debt is due June 2024 if it is not extended. With data this good, hard to see why debt holders will not be willing to extend beyond 2024
Congrats everyone .. I will exit now .. slowly
This is acting very good after long consolidation and into earnings .. holding position
I am out of this position
I wish someone could translate the exceedingly good RR metrics given in shareholder letter to some sort of projected cash flow for next 12 months
HyreCar has seen incredible growth in dealer inventory, which has increased threefold in just the past two month
What was 2 months ago? 200?
Still very impressive
New here .. bought in today .. last CC in nov they said they had 250 cars with fleet .. is today’s info they have 1,600 cars is apples to apples comparison?
Those estimates are meaningless for an underfollowed company like ftnw
Where do you get $1.64 in earnings ?