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So basically we’re looking at another couple of years at least, with no guarantee the NWS will be vacated by the courts.
And the pendulum swings back to relief from admin.
So disheartening at every level
In reading the judges opinions, I felt like this
Exactly.
Don't forget to take some credit for yourself in your humorous posts bringing levity to an otherwise depressing situation over the past 10 years.
I am factoring in a 10% surplus that most believe the govt is entitled to. But, yes, I’d be happy to increase my numbers :)
Between both companies? Maybe I had saw that figure and thought it was for one.
The overpayments are about $30-$40b I believe, and there are roughly $2b OS between the companies. Rough figures.
I think we need to organize a campaign where we send something fitting to John Carney for all his biased and flat out false articles on the GSE’s.
I was thinking maybe hundreds of boxes of toilet tissue, MAGA hats, or something along those lines.
What do you think?
Can we quit our jobs now?
This is my summary of this week, of which I sent to the folks I convinced to invest in FNF
Just released today after market close. Monday should see some fireworks
https://www.bloombergquint.com/onweb/fannie-freddie-investors-get-key-win-in-bid-to-end-profit-sweep
I’ve been scrubbing the message boards trying to understand what’s going on.
This past week had some very strange trading for FNMA. In anticipation for Trump’s plan for the companies, the stock rose to ~$3. Then after it was released, it nosedived back to the $2.70 range. This is mostly because, it seems, that the market interpreted the plan as negative because of the timeframe it anticipates. Although a step in the right direction, it seemed not enough to be interpreted as positive in the short term. It basically says we need to keep the status quo until we figure out what to do, which is really no change at all, and quite frankly, what has been happening for the past 10 years. But, it also does state they were going to recap the companies, which is a big step.
I believe initial market reaction was an exaggeration and it would have recovered after analysts reviewed the plan more thoroughly.
However, the big news came today after the market closed. The long awaited judgment regarding the Net Worth Sweep was released and government was ruled against, and shareholders won the case. This is HUGE! The ruling also states shareholders may be entitled to getting the overpaid money back, which comes to about $16 per share I believe. That is unexpected icing on the cake and very well could entitle shareholders a special dividend of ~$16 for every share they own if the court so decides.
The government must now stop taking the money and return the companies to shareholders. As for when and how, we don’t know yet as the ruling remanded these details to the lower court, but it will be forthcoming in the next few weeks/months.
In the meantime, I expect to see the stock rise above $6 next week and not look back. My mid term expectation (1-2 years) is in the $40 range, and long term (3-5 years) above $80. I also expect to see the companies relisted on the NYSE and start paying dividends of $.25 or more quarterly in the mid term.
Except that case isn’t even in the trial stage yet after 7-8 years, SMH
Wow. Just wow. Pondering this, one can only come to three possible conclusions. Either it was by design, and therefore a masterfully choreographed plot by either one or many individuals across a wide spectrum of authorities. OR it is by fate and for some reason, a divine being is intricately involved in overseeing this matter. OR this is pure coincidence, of which the probability of this happing would be astronomical.
It’s the latter.
I don’t believe it. This is going to get interesting co e Monday. Can’t wait to hear Bradford’s opinion on it
The Third Amendment is the smallest independent agreement that caused the Shareholders’ injury, so that is what to rescind. When a contract is rescinded, restitution is generally in order, and the plaintiff may also need to return benefits it received.29 I would recognize the district court’s authority, on remand, to decide the parties’ rights and duties to restore their rightful position. So I don’t share Judge Haynes’s concern that this remedy resembles a “pick-and-choose approach” and grants Shareholders a windfall. **
Let’s hope so
Unlikely. The economy is already strong.
But don’t you see this is equally why keeping them in c ship isn’t a problem for his re election either? Not enough people care either way.
That’s a pretty accurate perspective and exactly how I took this plan when it was released. This is a much better explanation than “manipulation” or whatever other red herrings people like to blame it on.
This back and forth banter is quite entertaining. I hope the mods don't delete them for TOS violations. :)
It looks as if the market feels the same way as I interpreted this "plan."
Seems like the plan is to drag this out as long as possible until all investors are dead.
Funny how that works.
Yes, but don't forget GM went bankrupt which is a huge piece of that pie.
Maybe the articles are inaccurate. I’m not very high on what has come out so far.
I agree with your political take on things.
I’m looking forward to reading your perspective on the plan. The initial news reports aren’t very positive from what I can gather. Hopefully you can shed some light on what has become a huge let down. I feel like I’ve been in a loveless marriage for 11 years with bouts of hope, but looking for the divorce that I know is inevitable.
Honestly, none of this sounds very positive for us. A step in the right direction, yes, but these are baby steps from the looks of it. This sounds like the beginning of another 5 years of political do nothings, which really should have happened 10 years ago.
And I’m dumbfounded that they still plan on keeping the NWS in tact. That’s a huge gut punch. Now the pendulum swings back to hoping en banc does something other than play “kick the can” with everyone else involved.
I find new reasons to dislike the last administration every day. They tied these Christmas lights into 100,000 knots and asked a 5 year old to untie it.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/05/trump-administration-unveils-plan-to-overhaul-fannie-mae-freddie-mac.html
Ok. Cautiously optimistic. Cship isn’t the main issue, the NWS is
Waiting with bated breath and all fingers and toes crossed.
I agree.
That's a good catch.
Hahaha. So here comes another delay apparently. What a surprise. Hope this is wrong, but it's credible considering delays are all we've seen for 11 years.
Nobody has any idea who anyone is on these boards. With very few exceptions, I take everyone’s claims of who they are, with a grain of salt.
Anyone claiming to be any sort of a big shot is suspect IMO. I seriously doubt many people’s claims.
Let's take a poll on what we think will happen this week:
A. Unveiling of the GSE Treasury Plan.
B. En Banc Decision
C. Absolutely Nothing.
D. Announcement of a Delay.
E. A&B
I vote for C.
Thanks for your service brother.
No way! I got to Guam shortly after, in 94. Was there for the earthquake.
And after the plan comes out with an expected execution years down the road, it will fall flat. Then our hope pendulum will swing back to the courts. Back and forth we go.
My best GSE analogy: I feel like I’ve been stuck in one of the world’s top restaraunts. After I place my order, I’ve been waiting forever for my food and super hungry. I keep trying to flag down a waitress, but they keep ignoring me while serving other customers.
We’ve been saying “any day now” for 10 years about Sweeney, admin changes, etc etc. Something tells me the plan we’re expecting after Labor Day will be delayed as well.
Haha. Way to apply your Daily Affirmation from Stewart Smalley.
There's always Sweeney's court to hold your breath for. 5 years and still haven't even gone to trial yet. Should be any day now...