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Bad prediction. Eagles 34, Patriots 24.
Market caps matter. You can't find a lower-priced, debt-free Phase 3 company on the stock market today.
Thanks. (This after putting TNVR in the search box, then checking the mailbox and seeing your message.)
Just say then that you, as an investor, want the company to finance at 3 cents so that it will drop even a little further before it starts its ascent. There is no true benefit for DCTH to getting a bad financing deal, and there is no benefit for a company to invest with predator hedge funds rather than with biotech companies or biotech-focused finance companies that can use their expertise to help the company get fairly valued.
I think 3 cents looks horrible because they need to get the max amount of dollars here ($10 million). IMO it's important for the company to cash up, and they cannot do it at an insanely depressed PPS.
From one of their earlier filings, "As of July 5, 2017, the remaining outstanding principal amount of the Notes is $15.7 million." Now, it's zero. The company now has some cash, no debt, and full ownership of patents. And their market cap is less than 10 percent of what it was in July.
How can you call it a gold mine? DO any hospitals bring in a lot of profit? Even if the company was run well, it seems a bad sector. I wish the company updated its share count. There is a never a clue whether it is overvalued or undervalued. It also does not seem nearly as liquid as the numbers suggest. It's easy to buy, but never super easy to sell without bringing down the BID.
Once dilution is done, it will be announced. Until then, this is a rollercoaster that swing traders must be having a ball with. On a side note, this is the only ticker that, for the life of me, I can never remember.
I assume you place no responsibility on Simpson for failing to get the RS approved in September. That, to me, is a responsibility that did mostly fall on her shoulders. They seemed to have made good arrangements with their creditors/debtors, and they had a plan to minimize the the negative impact an RS would bring, yet she failed to make clear what would happen if the RS did not pass.
Since then, we'v been diluted 200-fold in order to clear the convertibles.
The market cap was around $40 million when they left the NASDAQ, and it's dropped to $7 million. Now you think we should cheer if she gets the next financing while market cap is at this low price. It's as if you think dilution is the main goal here; they do not need to maximize the number of shares they dilute nearly as much as they need to get as much money as possible to help fund the Phase 3.
I am admittedly playing with money I cannot lose; the stakes are higher for me than hopefully for anyone else here. But this is a conviction bet for me right now. My only real huge success in the past was Luna Gold, which dropped to 2 cents (a year after getting financed at 12 cents); I averaged down there in the belief that the lenders, who held the majority of Luna shares, would definitely get their money back even if results came in bad.
Here, I simply think the market cap matters. If you have horrible convertible debt, no cash, and no movement with your product, yet still maintain a market cap from $40-150 million on NASDAQ, then you should be able to get your market cap back up there when you now have cash, no debt, and some significant progress in Phase 3. The company's product has a value in the marketplace, and it treats a disease that will not go away. Despite your insistence, this company is worth more than the garbage market cap you ascribe to it.
Personally think it's trying to complete the last dilutive financing. Doing like yesterday -- quick spikes, speedy drops -- should facilitate it. Once that is officially done, it will have a chance to soar, perhaps, before the next financing.
Do they have anything to even do with VR anymore? Per the press release that comes before this bulletin board: "As part of the shift in strategic direction, the Company has sold its virtual reality assets..."
If they financed at 20 cents, they'd still have a market cap under $50 million before the financing. Such a market cap is not absurd, and still seems rather low. It is possible the lack of a formal announcement about the patents currently keeps this down. Once that comes, not sure what the rationalization for a $7 million market cap would be.
The only way they finance at 3 cents now is, IMO, if they finance with the folks who used the convertibles to take stock down from $13 to 3 cents. If they do that, it appears the company is currently aware that the stock is being held down so those "investors" get a better deal. Just not sure why Delcath would be fine with that.
This is definitely not a company at risk of bankruptcy, so don't know a single compelling argument for shorts right now, and can't imagine many are genuinely short.
this stock wants blood.
I had sold some of my shares yesterday, took a gamble with some Rennova shares, got lucky, and sold them for a 20 percent gain this morning to buy back all the Delcath I sold the day prior. Rennova now up 50-60 percent today, and this stock -- the only stinker of a biotech stock that I truly like -- doing absolute garbage, yet again.
Current PPS and market cap can be completely explained away with the extinguishing of the convertible debt. As such, SamNotSamuel, I don't think it's realistic to expect a financing at 3 cent per share unless you have pure faith in the total incompetence of DCTH management or DCTH product.
DCTH may have lingered in this area for a long time, but it wasn't until today that they even officially put out a press release stating that the convertible mess is over and done with. And they still haven't released a press release re: receipt of all their patents again.
We also don't want to know what they actually paid for the hospital -- not yet. Stock needs to go up quite a bit before they should finance again -- and they'll definitely need to do another financing again.
What is the attraction of this stock? Did it ever go on a huge run? I have only watched biotechs the past year (an addiction I wish I never developed), and have invested here 2 or 3 times. It always does nothing, or worse. However, it definitely has its followers (I remember a few faithful posters on Stocktwits). Curious, are most playing it for the spikes (of which there are an occasional few) or for long-term? I liked their presentations, actually, but they have not yet confirmed they became cash-positive on a month-by-month basis by end of last year (which I thought was their stated belief) and whether they said they wouldn't or not, it's BS that they are not updating their share count. Apologies for the underlying babble, and GLTA.
Thanks for the post, and the genuine update.
Perhaps, but I have so far sold this ticker twice in the last few days (all sooner than ideal) as I still have the impression they are diluting -- if not, why not a press release? -- and I have no clue whether it is simply riding the coattails of the bitcoin craze (as are many failed mining companies, etc) or has something legitimate. Impressed by all those riding it out, or comfortable at paying 5 cents per share, but it's a hard stock to place a value on. Seems more like pure gambling to me, albeit gambling at a kind table. Will try to do the DD necessary to think otherwise, as that would allow me to comfortably invest more.
If I am not mistaken, they were not forced to sell all of their remaining shares as long as they did not go over 4.99 percent of the overall total share count. As such, perhaps they now have room to help pump it so they can a better price for their remaining shares. Improbable, perhaps, but as possible as the belief that they are simply eager to dump their remainder as fast as possible.
Totally agree with your comments... We have a 7 million market cap right now, a Phase 3 cancer drug that's already sold in Europe, and we are debt free. We are getting little to no monetary value for our product, yet Delcath mgmt is neither buying shares in the company (perhaps they can't at this moment -- but if so, they can at least state this) nor are they trying to make the market know it believes it's undervalued.
Why are they being so quiet? Sheer disinterest or incompetence... or perhaps confidence that time will fix things on its own? I generally think it is a positive when a company is calm in the face of a severely declining valuation -- but so far frustrated.
It should be a better trade, though. One other MAXM-attacked stock, TFVR, mentioned here by Mr H, is soaring right now, and certainly not hibernating in a low trading range as this has lately been doing.
You seem to show more faith than most in the company's product, but little to no faith that it should be prescribed any value as of this moment. IMO, if they cannot find a genuine cancer/biotech company interested in investing in them at this moment, then they will only attract junk hedge funds, etc, that will try sell their shares before the next financing comes around. Makes it more of the pump-and-dump-and-dump-some-more company it has historically been this past year or two, but which it should not be at this time.
They definitely need to release something when they have officially regained control over their patents. Simply alluding to it (vaguely) in the prior press release seems insufficient, given that they diluted us 100 times over in order to get them.
SamNotSamuelIAm, even those hoping for a dollar fall into your future $600 million MC hypothesis. The norms people seem to hope for, in a buyout, seem between 18 and 30 cents per share (or between 100 and 150 million market cap).
And no one saying as much seems to be pumping the stock. They just have some optimism toward its future.
IMO, saying they'll finance for 3 cents per share with junk hedge funds, then linger in the 4 cent range for months, as you have been saying, is extremely pessimistic (particularly how you expect the stock to sit at 4 cents until more good news from Phase 3 rolls in) for someone who's supposedly has a position in the stock, as you're valuing the company at little more than cash on hand. I just don't understand why you think (to the point of "insist") that that stock should have a smaller market cap now than when you personally sold it last summer.
It seems, when Simpson last said a buyout was out of the question, they did not control their patents, their product was not yet proven to be safe, and they were loaded with convertible shares. I am so seldom holding a stock when it actually gets bought out, so base my opinion with zero confidence, but the Delcath story is simply different from the Delcath story last summer. Seems totally possible another company would like to try and buy it when it is cheap and still a bit desperate.
And while it has been a nightmare for many of us these last few months or years, it seems one of the more intriguing bets for newcomers willing to stick with it for a while. Either it shoots up now or it shoots up later, but it is not going bankrupt, it does have a legitimate product of value, and its ticker will always attract investors who do not fear volatility -- even after they lost money there.
In some sense, it should be short-term for everyone. That's why small-cap individual biotech stocks are primarily held by day traders.
You valued the stock higher in the summer then. I don't personally think that makes much sense. At 16 cents in the summer, I think it was nearly 100 million market cap (with debt, no ownership of its patents, etc).
TNXP shot up 120 percent before an expected financing. I was smart enough to get out that day with good profit. I tripled down on ETRM this summer, expecting it will shoot up before its financing, and instead, it dipped 50 percent, then financed for half that, and then kept buying new companies to keep its stock price valued low. Total garbage, and basically destroyed me by having too much confidence in one stock spiking. But ETRM was valued at $35 million before the financing, and DCTH, for now, is at about 8 million. DCTH also has more revenue -- and more potential. People who are bullish yet expect the stock to stay in this range are either trying to load up on shares or else, what? There is no reason to invest in a junk ticker like this if you don't expect the ticker to make you significant profits.
Sam, out of curiosity, were you invested when stock went from 2 cents to 36 cents this summer? If so, why? I did gamble when it was at 2.4 cents, but admittedly considered this more of a bet on a ticker than on a company. I sold about a day before the sharp rise up, and never got back in, as I kept expecting it to go back down. And at some point, of course, I thought the market cap was too high.
Right now, I think the market cap is way too low. If you think it is priced correctly, then, even after all potential dilution, you are putting little value on either the patents or on the Chemostat product.
If you really think it will eventually be approved in 2019, why not believe it will go higher now? From what I've seen, biotechs often price in good news before the good news gets released, particularly if there is some potential there will be bad news. The little-traded Living Cell Technologies is a great example of that, going to a high of nearly $2 before dropping to 20 cents on news that its stem cell treatment showed little to no positive effect on its patients.
really hope this is spot-on analysis... next week will be interesting. I am hopeful that mgmt does the unthinkable and actually buys some shares in the company; even a $10,000 purchase from the CEO or CFO would help move this stock dramatically forward.
We'll see if the financing is for a full 250 million shares, or if the share price rises higher/much higher before the ultimate financing. IMO, if they sell for 4 cent or less to mainly junk hedge funds, etc, then that's an indication the company does not have nearly as much belief in its product as I now expect it to have. They really cannot treat dilution always as if it is meaningless. I am personally not keen on the amendment, not at all, if price for financing is not higher than current price.
After the financing, it may have same price and about the same amount of shares as pre R/S, but it will also have about 10-15 million in cash, no debt, and full control over patents, along with positive developments for its main product.
There is a reason to think the price should go up where Delcath can at least compare, market-cap wise, with junk biotechs. (That alone would bring stock to about 12 cents.) Right now, it is bottom of the pack, lower than biotechs with unproven products) with a seemingly validated Chemostat product that is still not priced much into the market cap.
I've aways liked the Athenex buy-out idea (because it makes sense for both companies), and think PoincianaMike has been consistent with his story as well as hardly pumping it ... but $2 to $4 makes absolutely no sense without an RS as you say. The question is what market cap would Delcath sell for. I think they can't sell for much more than double their market cap, so even if they went for $200 million, they need to get to $100 million first.
If that pic is Peter Finch from "Network", maybe it gives me an opening to recommend this great "drink" story from peter O'Toole about an escapade with Peter Finch:
Thanks for explanation. I am tapped out, but surprised that buying has been modest to this point. The market cap suggests this is ridiculously undervalued, bu the reaction to today's press release has been mediocre at best.
Why didn't they bother to explicitly state it in the press release? This sentence (" Since the Notes have been satisfied in full as a result of the Exchange Agreements, there is no longer a security interest in our assets with respect to the Notes") may say as much, but it seems almost purposefully designed to mute the potential impact to the PPS.
A company that wants its PPS to rise would likely mention, quite explicity in the press release, that it now has full ownership of its patents, all of which they believe to have a value exceeding our current market cap or some such crap.
8 million dollar valuation at the moment. Meanwhile, RTTR has yet to prove it does not have a placebo, but 16 million market cap (even after dropping 90 percent). LVCLY was also recently unable to prove its product is nothing more than a placebo, and it too has a 16-17 million market cap.
Apparently there is an interest to keep the DCTH price low, but common sense suggests this stock should be valued much higher than the present day.
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BTW, Rennova now up 38 percent on no news (with shareholders completely clueless about its share count) while DCTH up 15 percent on news that the big dilution from convertibles is done.
Congrats to those who waited out for the press release to announce dilution was over. It's not nearly going up fast enough to suggest any other approach worked better than patience.
That one guy's POTN recommendation was a good one. Even today it is doing as well or better than DCTH. It seems overvalued to me, and I learned about it too late to think this does not have more upside, but that was one of the few times where a recommendation was given when the stock really did have further room to move up... Anyway, respect to that person.
Why do you say it is a 250 million share offering, pure and simple, when that is simply the max (including warrants) that they can sell? They can sell up to 250 million shares or raise up to $10 million dollars. If they're not focusing on trying to raise $10 million, at best price possible, why bother to even invest in the company?
It's their fiduciary duty to get the best price they can get, and saying "up to 250 million shares" is an absolute worst case scenario, as it would suggest an offering at or below 4 cent per share. It would give them a market cap that's essentially no more than cash on hand.