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Art estimated 200 Mil in net operating revenue if he is correct
Gross revenue had to be 1/2 the market - he also said let’s say 1/2 of that bold estimate and its 100 Mil or 300-400 Mil taken away from MNK , I’d say there’s a good argument they should make ANI a offer of 500 Mil LD , like now. There’s a hint of over confidence in what your view of MNK is , still , even after looking at all the difficult challenges they are facing , in sum even if ANI carves out 200-300 Mil of those sales from MNK that’s a huge hit LD , I think ANI is out of pocket 100 Mil plus , so marginal estimates if Corti moves forward they break even in short order. Hey maybe Archer is making a offer , if I were them I would. JMHO
JTFM , where I know we both agree is the process in which Unimet took Androgel handed it off to Solvay, spun into Abbivie off to Abbot it goes , one of the common denominator here is Mr Simes , when he left Unimet when over to Bpax to develop what ? Yes Libigel that’s not speculation that is what I think took place ??? Isnf the factory ANI has in states once owned by Solvay ? If Libigel comes to market one day it will most definitely be called something else
If Abbivie acquires ANI and I think if sold that is where it’s going , then will know , won’t do us much good , lol
All JMHO
LD How did you come to 80-90 PPS in a sale ? Sounds more like a fire sale
Does that estimate include forward earnings for Corti ? The whole lock and barrel ? The sale would have 2 or NO sale will occur that much i am certain, This Co is largely owned by insiders and large institutions , Retail investors represent a very small piece, for this reason and this reason only i have held my shares 4 so long.
IMO It looks like they were planning a sale a couple years after they acquired Corti , The transaction committee that was up and then taken down IMO indicated as much as to where they wanted to head. And DO NOT discount another aspect of all of this , to me shows intent.
Bold move, They acquired the Canada facility !!! A Co does not buy one of those unless they intended to use it ! Besides added manufacturing capabilities and fact we trade well with Ca , Logistics play a role in going outside US. Anyone in business understands what that means. These are very methodical intelligent and goal oriented individuals. and if i am correct they also displayed much patience , The suitor IMO was predetermined years ago.
Could be wrong, wont be first time i am , but all JMHO
Something else that never considered , the money these large Co s invest come from institutions, and private sector , Over regulation is a burden , time , cost , and discourages investment s
Again safety is a must , lighten up on strict efficacy endpoints , allowing a shift in study to monetize unknown finding s discovered in the process that took place as a result of the study !!! It’s what businesses do every day. Why throw away everything , we now 25 + Trillion of debt , do we have the ability to create a economy to pay it off ? Crazy # , not sure it’s poss , IMO will soon see the worlds best negotiator reduce part of that debt by “ horse trading “” now for debt. He will have to reduce that # by 25- 50% in order to keep us & world economies going. Trump !! JMHO
That & the safety study agreement with FDA was not set to “” include efficacy results “” they ended the trial in 2012
LD sounds like he has experience with dealing FDA ; JTFM makes some really good arguments and in the real world outside a Gov Bureaucracy they could say hey we noticed these potential health benefits let’s allow you to shift and take a year or two to further prove those findings - outside of private sector business, that option does not exist, if it did they would have taken that opportunity to make changes and proceeded with trial. 10 years of time & investors money gone , maybe after this virus nightmare under Trump FDA guidelines will impose common sense changes. Most Big Pharma have always had bad reputation for cost of drugs , no one looks at the 10 years of time & money , and they toss away every finding in studies if specific endpoint in trial design not met. Strict study to ensure a drug is safe is a must. Yet 10 years can prob be reduced greatly ,many these big Pharma have stepped up and are saving lives , people have to stop demonizing private sector Entrepreneurs, JMHO
Titled
Methodological Challenges in Studying Testosterone Therapies for Hypoactive Sexual Desire Disorder in Women
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1743609519318740
Published in Feb JTFM & Jadite , Susan R Davis
JTFM , If BOD decided to sell ANI it would certainly explain AP departure ,I do not think he would have left , this was his mission statement. He said as much , wanted to grow ANI to 2-4 BIL MC, In front of Corti its very odd he leave before achieving his goal. Makes no sense !
I am going to say this again for what its worth, IMO I got the feeling based on the method in which AP ran the Co and his past record , Slow organic growth, Him leaving may have everything to do with sale
Remember the transaction committee ? Then look at timing of acquiring Corti
If its a sale , it was most likely planned a few years ago. Anyone ever wonder why Merck sold Corti to ANI ?
Merck & Co., Inc., d.b.a. Merck Sharp & Dohme outside the United States and Canada, is an American multinational pharmaceutical company and one of the largest pharmaceutical companies in the world. Merck is incorporated in New Jersey
JMHO
JTFM I hope you are right !
Androgel had no safety study ? We live in a very litigious society , whether you had a 10 year safety study or 5 it has little to do whether a group of lawyers will sue the company. I recall Bpax received a patent for a applicator device to administer a proper dose of T, If findings CV and Breast are reduced i can see that use case alone being pursued , If a sexual response is improved also that , great !
It s all wild speculation!!
I really hope you guys are right but I have seen nothing to support ANI is / has invested any time or $ into Libigel , why would they hide it ??
Why didn’t they hide working on Corti ? It’s like a script writer in Hollywood creating a story , seven years now.
Again I am not sure even Abbivie would want to deal with the Risk of promoting a female T , look at lawsuits from Androgel , ANI invested over 100 Mil into Corti , let’s hope that moves forward , JMHO
ANIP has had incredible growth YOY for last several years, This stock was trading below 2-5 bucks when ANI acquired BPAX
In this moment in time , yes its horrible, SO is the entire market !! If they pull off approval Corti in July I'd say that speaks to success
Lets see , To state BOD is poorly running ANI , i just disagree , Bad at PR which i think is intentional , Low float, small retail , large institutional and insider ownership
jmho
BB , After reading some comments here its poss AP Poss
All things being equal as it relates to past history how these Pharma Co's operate , IMO AP leaving was predetermined based on a certain event , Going back to language in transaction committee that was set up then taken down [ why would they remove it ? ] that timeline was about 2-3 years ago soon after Corti was acquired and that timeline should not go unnoticed. Nor should the deal ANI put together with large Pharm to acquire Corti. That was a pretty large deal to put together 75 Mil cash and ??
the only obvious current pending event i can see is Corti approval,So IMO if a certain objective was met these things trigger ,,,,,, And example of something sim is Unimet pharm Dev Androgel headed by Mr Simes , Unimet to Solvay , Morphed into Abbott. Mr Simes then goes off to Bpax to dev the infamous Libigel , Then Acquired BY ANI , Working out of i think Solvay Factory ? What little i learned is this , Focus on what relationships really small co's like ANI have and what assets they are able to acquire , it provides some insight, In observing ANI they have rela s
Lets see how their story ends up , hopefully a happy ending. Or very long prosperous future. JMHO
BB , IMO any BO would have to include forward earning projection estimates beyond our 220 MIl , Assuming Corti is a GO
There is No Way the BOD is going to NOT consider this value ! And here is a lrger Q , What is the value of ANI with and without Corti ? They have a vast drug portfolio and [3] locations Today we are a 500 MIL MC toss in Corti and Assets has to be much more than what on surface.
Not going to guess , but if Corti adds 300-500 Mil ANI now jumps to a 500-800 MIl gross sales, Modest estimate ? The BOD is in this to make money , Art wanted to take this to 2-4 BIL MC , None of this makes any sense
And we would be trading 60-80 if not for Virus , So Corti approval has to palce us at 150-250 Per share , Just a guess
Thanks RG For your views
It would all make sense if we were a 2-4 Bil MC now , He 60 something i get that, Here is a Co that grew a few generic drug portfolio to 47 or so now, and many Branded , You brought up a very interesting fact , ART & BOD are either the worst self promotional Marketing Co i have ever seen or the objective was accomplishing to get to a certain predetermined milestone and Marketing never really mattered.
MC is under 500 MIL , Assuming covid had not happened imo we be back to trading 60-80 , Corti go or not go decision is in July ,its more than likely a approval and immediate launch, what are the revised earning for Q4 and Q1 2021 going to look like ? Their current sales are 220 mil ? if this happens in conceivable those sales go from 220 to 600-800 plus ?, I can see a 2-4 plus Bil MC by 2021-2022
The Transaction Committee set up in late 2017 Or 2018 was for a event change in ownership so although they took down from website , the timing lines up ? No Q a large pharma can produce much better results than a small co size of ANI , If there is a sale , they will value at very least with present & Corti earning.
JMHO
JTFM
When did they form the transaction committee to address the process that takes place in the event of change ownership ? Does it not seem odd they took it down ?
It was about two years ago, These co 's are awesome at putting together long term objectives, what was very different about this Transaction Committee , It was set soon after they bought Corti from Merck ! So IMO they possibly had a objective at that time. ANI spent over 100 MIL in this one drug. Art s go to business approach was always ""Organic Growth"" his actions were disciplined slow and steady CEO , That Takes Patience or set forth to a predetermined outcome, when ANI acquired Corti it was a shift in that slow approach. I've met only a few CEO's that conduct business like them , Make no mistake what is ever happening IMO has been well planned. On the outside this was slow moving
Co working toward milestones , last several years , On the inside , IMO they have valuable contacts in Pharma, as witnessed by the drugs they acquired , The large institutional investors, a history of success, and Board Members with much experience. What was nice to watch was the slow profitable growth. IMO hidden value. Lets see
JMHO
RG whats your take on Art Leaving ? You been here for awhile , The man sets a goal of taking ANI to Multi Bil MC he leaves a few months before seeing if that hard work is realized and then toss in the monetary aspect unless of course its set up to pay him regardless
What am i missing ? Is there a failure of his efforts coming
Makes zero sense, Corti is going to be approved for manufacturing or its NOT , either one. There is no Q if it is approved ANI stands to make at very least their entire 2020 earning estimate of 220 Mil gross making our MC 450 MIl that is a underestimated sales fig , very Low NET OP EARN 100 MIL i do not know what their gross would be, have to assume 300 MIL plus ?
NOI What Is Operating Income?
Revenue, as we said, refers to earnings before the subtraction of any costs or expenses. In contrast, operating income is a company's profit after subtracting operating expenses, which are the costs of running the daily business. Operating income helps investors separate out the earnings for the company's operating performance by excluding interest and taxes.
They had earlier estimates of 200 MIL or gross of 600 MIL plus , IDK again makes zero sense , Unless its a disaster coming of unknown, or change of ownership, Did Art accomplish his task and this now goes to the big fish ? Maybe JMHO
JTFM We live in a Litigious Society, Considering T lawsuits and slide in Androgel sales IMO I just do not see it. With that said if CV benefits are promoted and its marketed for that indication alone
It would be good, If that is at all possible. I am looking to see if our CEO departure is tied into a merger or Buyout. I'd be concerned if it was not....Did Art P under perform for his shareholders, The answer on surface is a NO, he has delivered results YOY and IMO has done a terrific job. Like many of our rational board members here i Q why he decided to more on in front of what appears to be a blockbuster drug in Corti , I recall reading past remarks from Mr P is he wanted to bring ANI to a Multi Bil MC like he did with Akorn , So why in the world would he leave now in front of accomplishing his objective. I mean its happening in few months ,
So i can see a departure rooted in poss disagreement with BOD , In my speaking to this man in past he gave me the impression he was very much goal oriented individual which for me taken into consideration Corti looks like its moving to market in few months , just makes this difficult to understand, So i am going with the Merger, Buyout theory. Could be wrong , JMHO
Right so Simes developed Androgel at Unimet leaves , Takes position Bpax where he develops Libigel , which then acquired Ani
Theres been zero mention of Libigel by ANI since they took the IP , Zero , no mention by anyone in ANI which is Ok , Why no Q's from Raymond James or anyone at these calls , meetings, I dont recall anyone bring up Libigel . There is NO Q a Q would have normally be asked !
So IMO if ANI is now acquired by Abbott Or Abbivie Libi goes with it ! Lets hope if there is a sale of co Corti is value is included !!!
JMHO
JTFM , Androgel was developed by Unmet Pharm ? same CEO Bpax Mr Simes they spun off to Solvay ? who was then acquired by Abbott , Bpax if my memory serves me took over the Solvay factory. i like to refer to Mr Simes as the Grandfather of Androgel, He is a very smart man
Mr Simes then moves on to Bpax they dev the trials on what we know is Libigel , [ about 10 year safety study ] We know what happens after the trial Efficacy does not meet endpoint , Oddly enough safety was not an issue, and that was established prior to Efficacy results !!! , Back at that time many thought the approval of Libigel was a done deal. Bpax sells to ANI , Our CEO now resigns Or ?
Now it has been awhile so if i am off on any part of the history here , please feel free to point out. If ANI is now acquired by Abbot or Abbivie Id say that is one heck of a <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<and off would go that what we knew as Libigel IP
All just speculation Guys , But there no denying much of the history here.
JMHO
Posted Ihub JTFM 2017
Has ANIP been sold?
ANIP no longer lists a Transaction Committee on their website.
https://www.anipharmaceuticals.com/board_committees.php
Board Committees
The Board believes its current Committee structure, comprised of an Audit and Finance Committee, Compensation Committee, Nominating and Governance Committee, and Transaction Committee currently is appropriate. Each Committee shall have a charter approved by the members of that Committee and the Board of Directors, the adequacy of which will be assessed on an annual basis by that Committee. The Board will annually review the Committee structure as well as the charter and composition of each Committee and will make modifications as necessary. The Board reviews the Committee membership when it annually reappoints its Committees and, therefore, does not have a fixed policy on rotation of Committee memberships. The Audit and Finance Committee, Compensation Committee and Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee will be composed entirely of directors who possess the requisite qualifications, as applicable and meet the criteria required for independence, including any heightened standards of independence, by applicable law, rules and regulations of the SEC and the listing standards of the Nasdaq Global Market. The Transaction Committee may be comprised of one or more of any member(s) on the Board, except as required by applicable law or regulations.
Sry typo was established about 2 years ago
The board committee set up 2 years ago that address in event change ownership , is no longer available and if you recall was a 2 year plan established about 2 years ago !!!
Silv the 8K is in stark contrast with the public statement Art made with ANI today, Very Strange
Their website page i posted today in event CEO was unable to continue was updated earlier this month, The FDA notice early review and acceptance Corti was yesterday.
The board committee set up last year that address in event change ownership , is no longer available and if you recall was a 2 year plan established about 2 years ago !!!
My guess is a partner or BO near term, Poss Art did not want to sell. He took Acorn to a multi Bil MC from nothing, and wanted the same for ANI The PPS is low so a BO now may be low as well.Speculation JMHO
BB may have something to do with talks FDA
Will they green light Imetelstat ? Unmet need , Maybe
Hey take care !
All the best
Its used for relevance ! that is all
& No one cares or believes anyone that would make very private holding public.
JMHO
You know the answer to those Q's LD , None of us know !!!
Not even you, So what you make blanket statements assuming they have no plans or this is not just a predetermined event Or ??
No One knows, I hear your frustration though, But making factually incorrect statements like they had no plans as if you know does not make much sense, in fact there nothing more that over reaching assumptions
I read his departure, You can interpret , what was his role ? and did he meet those milestones ? were they predetermined Milestones and his objectives met. Does the next step require a different CEO or a company much more experienced in taking the next step ! This comes days after FDA accepting application and news of early review. My last post from their web site noted updated recently addressing this very event ! Anything is possible, what is NOT likely is he just decided to move on in front of Corti approval , at least i dont buy that reason.
BAUDETTE, Minnesota (April 14, 2020) - ANI Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (“ANI”) (Nasdaq: ANIP) today announced that Arthur S. Przybyl will depart as President and Chief Executive Officer on May 10, 2020. The Board of Directors has retained a nationally recognized executive search firm to lead the search for a new President and Chief Executive Officer.
Mr. Przybyl said, “After 11 years as President and CEO of ANI, the Board and I have determined that the time is right to transition to new leadership as the Company prepares to launch Cortrophin® Gel and expand its portfolio of specialty pharmaceutical products. Since 2009, I have achieved my goals of transforming ANI’s business model and growing ANI into the profitable and sustainable business that it is today. Perhaps most importantly, over the past four years we have taken the Cortrophin® Gel opportunity from concept to FDA filing, and with it, plan to introduce much needed competition to the market. These achievements are a testament to our strong management team and talented employees that I am confident can successfully direct the Company going forward and I want to thank them for the transformative work we, as a team, have achieved.”
Succession Planning
The Board plans for management succession, including the position of Chief Executive Officer as well as
certain other senior management positions, as appropriate, on advance planning for contingencies, such as the
departure, death or disability of the Chief Executive Officer or other top executives, so that, in the event of an
untimely vacancy, ANI has in place an emergency succession plan to facilitate the transition to both interim
and longer-term leadership.
* * * * *
Adopted by the Board of Directors of
ANI Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
April 6, 2018
Last amended and restated March 4, 2020
So how would this make any sense ?
They just receive word from FDA that accepted application Corti and an earlier review,
Something is missing here, I recall there was a committee set up to address what process of a new control of company , Poss the Board agreed to sell and Art objected ? As far as his compensation is , I am sure there is a Para that addresses his if a sale occurs in a certain time frame from his departure. Not much makes any sense other than a downturn in direction of company
Or a sale, JMHO
Spot on Jadite
ANI for a small Bio has a far reach ! In fact Mr Simes CEO of Bpax was the Grandfather of Androgel
Make no mistakes this company is small but in many ways operates like a larger but " profitable" Co. When ANI purchased the Ca manufacturing facility they had intent , you do not invest in a factory unless you intent to use it !!!
JMHO
Ok 1/3 of MNK market , conservative but lets take that !
So Anip lands roughly 300 Mil in sales , MNK lost 10% year prior and now 1/3 of sales. Now toss in MNK lawsuits ,
As far as a partner goes , ANI could also bring in a partner ? and take more than a 1/3 & lets not forget they now have a factory in Ca and access to other markets outside USA
ANI invested 100 Mil i am not sure what 300 Mil in sales will bring to bottom line , lets say 75-100 Mil ? If you were MNK would you make a offer to buy out before they hit the ground running, Or do you wait until they take 1/3 to 1/2 of your sales !
Just saying , JMHO
Thanks for commenting
Really did not answer my question , Based on your assessment of MNK i am not sure why you are selling.
Sounds like your on fence. But appreciate the attempt
GLTA
It’s not a got ya Q LD
ANI still has 2 get a green light - the answer to my Q is not difficult MNK already saw a 10-15% drop in sales from last reported , do you have a # on sales their estimated for their next Q ?
ANI grabs 30% , simply math MNK then loess 40-50% if ANI grabs 1/2 +++++ then they still have to Nav through suits
Gonna need revenue to keep their ground sales people !
Be interesting to know your estimates , you ran fast in your last response you handled my Q like a politician lol
Happy Holiday all , & God Bless our President ! Closing flights coming from China saved many lives , just a fact !
I asked the Q for a reason LD
In lite of MNK current position , what in your opinion is the let call it a entry point ANI will tale in sales ?
Listen any decrease in sales to MNK hurts , adversely a min expectation of 300 Mil of those sales to ANI is a move forward so MNK takes a minus of sales regardless , again assuming ANI obtains a green light.
So if you were to invest a 100 Mil in a product and was offered 300 Mil would you take that ? Now 300 Mil is prob cheap
Yes MNK has a sales force in place def a huge benefit , I dont see how you square off stating under no uncertainty will MNK lose all sales , Maybe, maybe not if they cant come out from under their current conditions , lawsuits included , their sales force may have a new employer. One co is in a forward momentum and the other not so much ! Still like to hear your earnings forecast for ANI maybe yours will be much more bullish than mine. I hope you did not take too much of a loss on MNK and do wish you recover any losses with your investment in ANI , I wanted so much to buy under 30 i missed that OP , JMHO
ANI has invested 100 Mil into Corti , roughly ?
Assuming it’s ok by FDA in few month s can you ball park a % of market share / sales you think ANI will obtain ?
I heard some estimates % of sales ANI feels they will take , they keenly put # out as expected to add “ net operating Rev “ of high side 200 Mil low more recent framed by ANI even if that # is 100 Mil - the high # estimate is equiv to 500-600 Mil gross Rev ? The low estimate is fair to estimate 300-400 Mil gross ?? Fair estimates , ball park guesstimate ?
What are MNK sales ??? Is it reasonable to assume IF ANI estimate s are correct or in neighborhood it’s going to largely diminish MNK earning , operating expenses , where am I wrong ? Now toss in MNK other issues , JMHO
Just think ANI was trading 28-30
its up 50% plus, so hopefully no more doom and gloom , IMO i still think there is another 50% play here before year end , JMHO
That is a good one, Truthfully i always fig you had your hand in both MHK and ANIP maybe grown on ya ! And that is ok always , Hum back to
""Cheers""
Yeah never much of a gambler myself
It’s too chaotic , & attracts addictive personalities , I’ve met many , you usually here stories only about their winnings , instant gratification ,
Very few are good at it , not many. Their continuous stories overshadows their reality. ANI has been a long term investment , it’s Been profitable
Glta
If Net Op Earning are not 200 Mil for ANI and its 125 Mil conservatively
What is that asset worth ? Gross rev has to be 300-400 Mil , take that piece of pie out of a 1.2 Bil GR business , Id take the 500 Mil MNK raised and attempt to buy out competitor , Or at least 3 years of Net
Going 2 get interesting , JMHO
With lawsuits lurking MNK IMO is too risky , IMO their future is unclear
That and they have a huge wave coming in form of competition , Considering pending approval of Corti i wonder if there has been any attempt by MNK to acquire Corti from ANI ?
Any reasons why they would not ? Even if ANI takes in 300-500 Mil of those sales it is going hurt !
JMHO