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Considering the index is 5x higher today than the all time low it hit last year, I would think that is improvement. The index is about half of its long-term average so one would think there is still plenty of upside.
Cape and Panamax tonnage is on pace for less than 1% growth this year. While owners have made a lot of progress in reducing newbuildings and scrapping and thereby changing the supply side of the equation, demand will need anothe year or two to catch up. That is what is needed to bring the BDIY up to average or greater. BWTS and sulphur restrictions could also impact supply side as owners could scrap some ships versus spending millions more on older ships.
TaxiCaT - based on what DRYS has reported so far, the pps is significantly net below book value. On the earnings front, DRYS has provided numbers for the fleet with 2 notable exceptions. The VLCC and Heidmar are question marks. Otherwise the numbers provided to date leads me to believe positive net earnings or something close to that should be reported. Regardless of what is ultimately reported, my guess is the pps will stRt moving up through the report date. What happens after will depend on the numbers after that.
No one knows when they are releasing earnings. DRYS will publish a PR and follow up with 6k filing telling everyone the date.
Haven't seen DRYS post on a Friday yet. Mostly during the week and pre-market open.
DRYS hasn't provided any date yet for financials.
NBI - That would be my understanding as well. It should be accounted for the same way ORIG was at one time. From a practical stand point, it isn't clear what Heidmar will add to the top or bottom line for DRYS. One more reason why the financials are important for 3Q
Based on what has been published by DRYS so far, their gross revenues next year should easily exceed $170 million. That number uses a guess at the VLCC rate and nothing for Heidmar. It does seem that GE's $77 million dollar estimate was low for ebitda. Maybe that was his net number?
Spartan - That sounds right to me. According to DRYS, the per day charter rates for each ship are:
Anderida - $30,000
Aisling - $30,000
Mont Fort - $28,833
Mont Gele - $28,833
When Mont Gele is delivered in January, the total per day charter rate will be $117,666 or roughly $3.5 million/month.
GE stated back in June he was expecting gross revenues for 2018 to be approximately $77 million. That was before adding Heidmar to the mix. Given the strength of the spot markets and growth in worldwide GDP, I would think the number will be higher.
Normal cycle for BDI this time of year. Watch for a new spike going into year end.
TaxiCaT - yes. Waiting on financials. Probably end of the month.
meima1955 - perhaps you can point to where I suggested I knew when the reports would be made available?
Perhaps a good example of what to expect from DRYS 3Q is NMM. Reporting today.
Shippers are beginning to report and the numbers that are coming out are significantly better YoY and QoQ. DRYS is in a very good plac at the moment with $130 million in debt against roughly $760 million in assets. So the balance sheet is in the best position possibly since the company started. Spot rates, which is where most of DRYS ships operate have moved up markedly this past year and were high enough for the company to report net profits for the first time in several years. Probably won't be a big number, however it will identify the point in time where their profit profile switches from losses to profits. Q4 and going forward will continue to move up and the pps will follow along.
My guess is this is a buying opportunity. DRYS is very likely going to report positive earnings.
Here come the shorts!
DRYS has always let the market know a week or so in advance of releasing financials. Doubt 3Q reports will be done any differently.
Way of the world I suppose. Just as a thought, the last UN report I read a few months ago was targeting worldwide GDP growth at 3.25 - 3.5% for next year. If that happens shipping demand will exceed capacity by end of next year. The supply/demand imbalance will drive all shipping stocks through the roof. Even if it just inches forward over the next year, revenues will improve quarter over quarter. DRYS is likely in positive territory already and the pps will reflect that turnaround.
While this week wasn't pretty, the fact is the chart has been stair stepping forward for weeks. Not surprising it would take a breather now and then. No word yet on when earnings will be released. Should be a positive report and looking forward to getting details on the new ships and Heidmar.
Surprising how little the BDI has moved down so far. Usually mid-October to mid-November is a cyclical low and yet it has remained fairly strong. I wonder how high it will run into the end of the year? 4Q for shippers is looking good!
20% down this week leading into what will likely be a good ER. What I am looking for is more specific info regarding shipping revenue, but also what did $100 million dollars for Heidmar get investors. Presumably there is some amount of revenue (dividend?) from Heidmar that will add to DRYS net.
Mont Gele, DRYS 4th VLGC, is sitting dockside at the South Korean builder. In the water is a great sign that it is well under construction. GE reported it will be delivered in January. Some schedule slippage, but likely only a week or 2.
100k block on the $3.99 bid pushing the pps above $4. Someone wants this to continue moving up.
Next leg up going into earnings. Wonder how the market will react should DRYS post positive earnings?
Heidmar is managing 590 tankers now. There doesn't seem to be much in the public domain regarding their revenues. However, contrasting them against other pool operators' performance an Heidmar could be grossing around $100 million annually. Perhaps that will add $10-$15 million in DRYS earnings annually. Long-term for DRYS looks to be much improved. 3Q earnings should be out in the next 2 weeks and should provide some insights into where revenues are headed.
Mont Fort tracked as underway for sea trials. Looks delivery will be delayed.
1.2 million shares traded in the first half hour. ?
In the next 2 weeks the dividend will be paid, Mont Forte will be delivered, and DRYS should be reporting 3Q earnings. I wonder what the pps will look like in week 3?
$5.50 today?
Really? A 2 cent dividend and that drove the pps up and now will run it down? I am not seeing that cause/effect. Can you help me understand your thought?
Hard to know. The first 2 were delivered on time or early.
Mont Fort reported as returned from sea trials and is currently dockside at the builder. Seems likely that was acceptance trials. News should be out soon.
Down 4% in pre-market
DRYS gross revenue for 3Q will likely come in between $20 and $25 million.unclear what Heidmar might add to revenues. With spot rates higher than they have been in 3 1/2 years, there could be a lot of surprises coming.
PR should be here soon enough. The question is will that be enough to move the pps above $5 before financials are released in a few weeks?
Mont Fort is now listed on Marine Traffic. Looking for DRYS to announce delivery.
BDI 1586 +8.
Last November the outstanding was around 1 million shares. Circumstances are a bit different today. Just the same, DRYS is still undervalued based on book value. Revenues could be positive for 3Q and going forward.
I think he was referring to last November.
Who knows what OS they were using to do their calculations. The calculated rate for the current OS of ~104 million shares and a $2.5 million in dividends yields the 2.4%.
I am not sure what your information source is, but DRYS has never posted a 60% dividend. Maybe something with an odd calculation due to the RS's?