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Wouldn't the institutional increase be due to the reduction is shares just like GE's increase?
Other than the normal cycle of shipping, I am thinking there will be some renewed buying around mid-July. Why you might ask? Well, my thinking is the 1 year chart will look significantly better as the RS values will roll off the chart. That sudden improvement will look really good to all of the algorithms.
GE filed a new SC 13 D/A and his total number of shares hasn't changed. The percentage owned has along with all other shareholders, but not the total.
101 million shares outstanding as of 5/8. I wonder what happens if DGAS is listed with say 20 million shares or 1 for every 5 DRYS shares? DRYS keeps over half of those shares. GE would get more than 72% of the other half. Something around 2.8 million left and likely the only shares trading. Wonder where the share price would run up to?
It must be time to load up if you are back asking things like that! :)
From the details provided by DRYS yesterday it looks like DGAS will have EBITDA revenues of roughly $28 million/year. Given the current share count, that seems to price DGAS at about $7.
If there is a 3% growth added to the current volume of shipping for this year AND net fleet growth comes in at about 1%, there is an inflection point that should be reached towards the end of this year where supply is in equilibrium or less than demand. When/if that happens, rates will move back up sharply and shippers values will do the same.
For the last 2.5 years the BDI has been stair stepping higher. With the world economy expanding at a faster relate today, it seems likely that rates will continue to move higher. While the BDI is currently back above 1400 keep in mind this is still about 1000 points lower than the 20 year average. So there would seem to be a lot of room for growth. As long as owners keep to the current pace of newbuilding and scrapping, my guess is by end 2019 all shippers will be priced significantly higher.
Don't see it getting close to that number any time soon if ever again. However, I do see an opportunity for DRYS to get to at least book value this year and possibly higher if the world economy continues to expand at 3+%.
I-Man - I believe DRYS has $38.7 million left in the buy back. According to the latest info, the average price paid so far is just over $4/share.
$7 book value; Positive net revenue; Last ship on order delivered in the quarter; 2.8 million shares bought back in total; sold a PMax for $9.7 million. Big pile of cash after the sale/leasebacks. Wonder what GE is planning now?
Anyone see a reference to DGAS yet.
Ships, like all physical assets, depreciate over time. They generally have an economic life of about 25 years. Although in recent years this has been significantly less time due to shipping rates being so low owners stopped the bleeding by scrapping ships.
During the last 2 quarters however, the values of many classes of ships has increased due to S&P pressures.
With that said, DRYS oldest ships were built in 2000 and the company will need to make a decision by 2020. Sulphur emissions kick in then and it probably won't make economic sense to upgrade the ships at that point.
Scale matters. DRYS float versus AAPL. DRYS pps has been taken down in the pre market with trade of just a few shares. Selling 1, 2, or even 5 shares is clearly manipulation of the shareprice. This strategy has been ongoing since GE announced the buy back. And he has been buying. Keep in mind it has been almost a month since there was any word on how many shares have been purchased by DRYS. No word on DGAS either. At the current price level GE will buy back roughly 40% of the shares he didn't already own. My guess is he has been manipulating the pps lower in order to pick up as many shares as $50 million can buy. I also don't believe there will be a DGAS spinoff until the buy back is complete. I also believe that if the DGA pps drops he will be there to buy that up too. That would be very much his MO to split off DRYS assets and buy them up for a pittance.
What makes you think DRYS hasn't been buying back shares?
I don't think I have ever seen DRYS trade so few shares at this point in the trading day.
meima - I am not clear how an article from last year is relevant today. While the number of outstanding shares is still unknown, my guess is there are still 26-27 million non-GE owned shares in the float. On 4/13 NASDAQ reported 4.2 million short, which is significantly large percentage of the traded shares. Any good news should cause a fairly large spike from here, but it would also seem very unlikely to be a repeat of last year.
Couple in the spin off and DRYS shareholders might get a good run from both DRYS and DGAS.
Spartan - Agreed. It would be very interesting to get those updates. Hard to see how GE is buying back a lot of shares today with only 51k traded.
DRYS report Q1 2017 on May 10. Looking for an announcement to come out shortly on when they will report this year.
If the shorts are pounding on the table, it must be time to buy!
meima1955 - Shipping stock prices are moving down along with all markets given nervousness about a trade war. The BDI is down mostly because the Chinese New Year was later than usual and caused a smoothing affect to shipping. Normally there would have been a spike given the normal cycle. not this year though. Of course, this only impacts ships operating under spot rates. Charter rates are still high enough for shippers to eke out a profit.
Wonder how many shares DRYS bought today?
reclaimer - I doubt there was any wealth created for anyone associated with FASC. You might just call and ask for the reports and see what happens.
I haven't had any problems calling them. The line may be busy at times, but I get through eventually.
Or...you could just ask to get a copy.
trding - thanks! Just like DRYS to bury the lead. They seem to be on track to reduce the non-GE owned shares to ~20 million. I still believe the spinoff won't take place until the buyback is completed. GE is once again going out of his way to make sure his percentage keeps growing.
0001guy - I haven't seen a filing on those numbers. Would you have a link to the source?
Thank you.
There is lies the conundrum. FASC is registered (or at least it was) in Nevada. They have a legal responsibility to report to shareholders.
reclaimer - I would be doubtful of that on all accounts. While I still believe that FASC can make it, they are very much in need of the big sales that are in the pipeline. I doubt there are "big" salaries getting paid. More likely they are just limping along for now.
Assuming DRYS is buying shares at these prices, there will be close to 20 million trading shares versus the current 34 million.
The conversation alone is part of the reason why shipping stocks, not shipping, are down recently. There is perceived risk and moves stock prices.
Some of it is shipping cycle in general and likely also has to do with trade war fears. Those are working themselves out and probably won't change the volume of shipping one iota. World economies are growing at about 3% right now and that translates into more tonnage shipped. The question mark is how many ton miles come out it all, which will in turn move spot rates up or down.
It has occurred to me that market makers could be taking all shippers down in order to load up ahead of BDI improvement.
3/15 DRYS short interest: 4,616,649. I wonder how big that number is today?
Strange that NMM is down the percentage they are after reporting that dividends are starting back up and they received an increase in their credit rating. ?
Hard to say. They are still in the office every day and have optimism that sales are about to take place. Human nature would be to run away if there was no hope. The fact they are still there does say something. Assuming they aren't crazy, just maybe...
I wonder how many shares DRYS is buying? Perhaps even more interesting, how many shares will be outstanding not owned by GE?
I-Man - Understood and I am certain things will go well with GE until they don't. When it comes to GE I always reminded of the story about the scorpion and the frog. It will always be GE's nature to screw shareholders if it works to his advantage.
For now, shares are treading water; the BDI will start advancing as global weather improves and we move more into late spring; once trade war fears subside, shipping companies pps will improve - DRYS included.
Looking for another update from DRYS on how many shares have been repurchased. My guess is the DGAS spin off won't happen until the buyback is completed. Maybe by May which would also coincide with 1Q financials.
There is that too. Not much reason to trust the guy from an investors perspective.
I think DRYS is beginning to operate as a normal shipping company. Most of them are well below their NAV. It has become an earnings story. For DRYS there isn't a good track record to look at over the past year minimum. The 12 month chart will begin to look much better when it gets into the November time frame. Throw in the BDI treading water for the moment and trade war fears and I doubt this will move up much until the fear subsides.
KR - The lock on GE's shares runs out. The belief is he will take measures to run the pps up because he could then sell shares. I disagree with that thinking. GE is about ownership, which means he will do things like the share buyback so his percentage of ownership increases. The DGAS spin off provides him the opportunity to pick up the gas ships unit on the cheap too. Consider that DGAS will have ~$160 million NAV when it comes to the market and only have 10-12 million shares that GE or DRYS won't own. GE could easily buy those shares on the cheap. For $25-$40 million he would fully own DGAS. Throw in the $80 million he put up in loans that secured his 72 million in DRYS, he would end up with DGAS for the combined price of $120 million or less making a $60-$70 million profit and own DRYS for zero.
GE has thought this chess match out and already knows he has won.
TBG - No to UWink. Only IHub.