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If you look shenanigan up in the dictionary it refers to GE. I think it is a given with the guy that he is constantly planning how he is going to make himself more wealthy. Now that he holds 36 million shares I don't believe he will be planning anything that will kill the share price. What we do know about that has been made public, DRYS revenues are about to swing wildly to the positive. He went on record a few times indicating estimated revenues for fy 2018 at $77 million ebitda. That was prior to adding Heidmar to the mix or the additional $100 million that will result from the offering. Consider he is buying ships or other entities at this point. The money won't sit around for long before being deployed. So what is DRYS real value? My guess is that revenue next year will exceed $100 million. That would yield a share price of $15 With a pe of 15x. NAV should easily exceed $700 million and could be closed to $800 million when the buying ends. Enterprise value is typically estimated at 3x or 4x NAV. No matter what way the numbers are calculated the one thing that seems clear is DRYS pps is very much under valued.
I would wait for the notifications to go out. Etrade or any other brokerage has been provided details yet.
GM Sam - No new news on that front. In fact, everyone that I have spoken with understands the deal is still very much on track. It isn't clear to me if the closing date is next week or the following. The data aside, this will be a very good thing for FASC. I'll post any new details as I get them. This first deal will be big for the company not just because it will provide a multi-machine order, but the next 4 that are supposed to close over the next 60 days will pose new problems for FASC. The logistics of getting that many machines built and out the door will be a fun problem to have.
Has anyone found any additional details regarding the 10 million shares being sold @ $5? The $50 million should help a good deal, but curious why the pps hasn't moved on that news.
TG - Can you provided a link to something that states otherwise? the only info so far that I have seen was in the filing yesterday that said clearly that GE was locked up for 6 months. Additionally, his shares are not registered at this point and cannot be traded. Any new info would be appreciated.
That could easily be for DRYS already owned tankers. Heidmar will likely be recorded as a specific line item in DRYS assets.
The financials might show positive ebitda for the first time in a long while. The more interesting points will be management's discussion on future revenues and how many shares are outstanding. Still no 13D from GE so it seems clear the Heidmar deal hasn't completed yet.
Still looking for 2Q financials, 13d from GE on ownership position, and status of rights offering. $100 million Heidmar asset and revenue projections; $100 million in cash from rights offering. Assumed 108 million in shares outstanding after the offering is completed. There are a lot of details that need to be reported. Perhaps the biggest event will be management's revenue forecast and what the additional $100 million will be used for.
Not seeing a SC13 from GE yet. Wonder if he is having trouble with Morgan Stanley agreeing to him selling his Hiedmar stake to DRYS? I am sure there is some quid pro quo getting worked out.
TRCPA - Just based on what is already known, 3Q numbers should be pretty good. It looks like 2Q might be slightly positive, but this quarter should have a good return. Rates have been much higher and they have new charters. DRYS is looking much better.
I-Man - Not sure how that would work with DRYS where GE likely owns 50% or more of the shares. This may not be a fact yet though. No SC 13G/A filed yet so the Heidmar transaction probably hasn't completed. That could also be what is holding up financials release. Having the Heidmar numbers available for managment's discussion would help the total revenue forecast.
Someone is trying to hold this down pre-market. 50k shares @$3.20
Now that's funny!!
SP - My mistake on the RS. Apparently that is part of the proxy statement for the annual meeting on 9/27. Things like that are usually a done deal though and just going through the process. A link to the SEC filing is below and the proxy statement is at the bottom. There aren't that many options for SHIP to recapitalize and the RS and dump shares seems to be the path that most foreign companies are using today.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1448397/000091957417006312/d7595152_6-k.htm
According to the last financials, SHIP has less than 12% equity against 88% debt. A more normal relationship would be 60% debt. They appear to have received delays in debt repayment until next year. My guess is they will use the reverse split, probably 1:6, and restart the ATM at the higher pps. They need to come up with about $100 million to get their house in order. This is beginning to look very much like DRYS and TOPS.
For me, I will wait for the RS and short this one.
The last quarter's financials showed book value at $0.78/share and operating losses. A few times in the report they also called gross revenue net revenue. It looks like they had ebitda revenues of ($68k). "Net revenue" appeared a few times in the discussion section of the report and appeared to be intentional. While revenues did get better, SHIP operated at a loss in Q1. The report also discusses the purchase of a 2012 SK built cape for $32.65 million, which seems to have been roughly a $5 million premium. See link below. It should also be noted they borrowed $34.2 million against the vessel.
I wasn't able to find any references to any analyst recommending this. Other than speculation here, I don't see any reason yet to buy SHIP. Perhaps someone that follows the company and has a realistic case for buying could help me understand this better.
tia
http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/capesize-and-supramax-values-on-the-up-says-vesselsvalue/
Didn't they just approve a reverse split here? Any idea when that will take place? tia
Hopefully GE will keep with how his was providing financials previously. otherwise, it could be a wait.
Pursuant to Listing Rule 5250(c)(2), all Foreign Private Issuers must file a Form 6-K with an interim balance sheet and income statement as of the end of its second quarter. This information, which must be presented in English but does not have to be reconciled to U.S. GAAP, must be provided not later than six months following the end of the company's second quarter.
https://listingcenter.nasdaq.com/Material_Search.aspx?cid=45&mcd=LQ
No financials, no buzz.
SEA is up 1.44% which isn't too bad for an ETF. Shipping as group should be on a tear over the next 2 quarters.
Several that I follow are up 2 - 5%.
Not sure when 2Q financials will be released. 3Q and 4Q will both likely show DRYS with net positive revenues. Regardless of which valuation method is used, NAV or pe, the current pps is way too low based on the numbers. 3Q and 4Q shipping rates historically are at the top of the cycle so look for the BDIY to continue moving up.
It sounds a bit odd to be discussing fundamentals on a GE owned and operated business, but the facts are that is where DRYS is headed.
Someone needs shares to close out a short position. Probably MM's moving it down for naked short.
that's actually pretty funny to think of GE trapping himself in DRYS. I realize it was said tongue in cheek, but it was funny nonetheless. Personalities aside, the best strategy here would seem to be to follow GE. I wonder why a guy that always buys low and sells high would be DRYS?
It sounds as though some just haven't caught up with the current DRYS reality. The Kalani trade and direct dilution is over. GE as predicted found a way to give himself half of the company for very little. Nonetheless, DRYS has very little debt especially when compared to most other shipping companies. Book value and forward earnings are both very strong. Shipping rates are also improving and will continue to do so driven not only by an improving worldwide economy but also an improving supply side - fewer ships and fewer on order. My belief is the ebitda number for next year provided by GE is low and applying a 15x pe yields a significantly higher share price.
I will be the first to say that GE could care less about any other shareholder, be he is the major holder today. This one factor alone and in conjunction with his greed bodes very well for everyone else too. Short this at your own peril.
Perhaps. He has a good thesis as near as I can tell. By the way, first BDi was published in 1985 and is a bit younger than the fed.
I think the MMs are covering their naked shorts from when this ran up so fast. This feels more like ongoing business from their perspective. My guess is they have the shares covered now and ready for the next move up.
Once the pps moves above $5 the entire dynamic will change.
TBK - lol. It could just as easily be shorts getting stopped out today.
ash - It could get there. The problem with DRYS has always been GE and the risk factor he represents.
ash - my assumption for 2018 is closer to $100 million ebitda versus the $77. There should be at least $12 million coming from Heidmar and GE's number doesn't account for the improving dry bulk rates. Without any more hocus pocus from GE and shares should trade north of $20 this time next year.
If we believe the Heidmar valuation that 49% is worth $100 million, DRYS book value is somewhere around $7-$8 after the VLGC's are paid for. GE has stated 2018 full year ebitda revenue at $77 million. It is unknown at the moment what Heidmar might add to this. Teekay has reported $350/day per vessel managed along with a fee of 1.25% of chartered rate. Assuming Heidmar has a similar rate structure, this works out to gross revenues between $25-$30 million/year. Assuming ebitda would be roughly half of gross and using a 15x pe, this would yield an enterprise value between $187.5-$225 million. Maybe, just maybe shareholders didn't get screwed by GE this time.
http://tankerinvestments.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/TIL-Q2-2016-Earnings-Release-FINAL.pdf
pre-market: last $3.32 up 3.75%
TBK - how are those $1.05's doing? Or is $3.05? I forget it changes daily! I've been watching more lately and I will say i like your story lines my friend.
If anyone is interested, the fundamentals are improving daily. BDI has been moving up consistently. 3Q earnings for DRYS should be very positive. 2Q yet to be reported are likely to be at least break even, which would be a significant achievement in itself. Short-term who knows where the pps will be today. Mid to long-term though, the pps is clearly moving up.
got to hand it the shorts today. They worked hard to move the pps down. Will the attack be successful in moving the pps down more or can bulls push it back up. The daily struggle. Mid to long term though, I think everyone can agree that DRYS is undervalued. Earning report, when it does come out, won't be the catalyst some are expecting. Results might actually be positive but they won't be so strong that it will push the pps along. What will be of interest and likely to have an impact will be the discussion of future earnings and any assessments made for Heidmar or the other assets. At some point the pps will more closely align with a multiple of future revenues. Even using a 15x against next year's revenues yields a significantly higher pps.
Thanks for sharing Tbone. I will be looking for it on the tape.
ash - are you sure that is the right Heidmar? The Hoover report is for Heidmar, Inc (oil and gas field services). What is in the SEC filing is Heidmar Holdings LLC (tanker pool services).
Probably not so much after Friday's volume. The pps needs to move above $4.20 or so to start affecting the shorts prior to the last reverse split.
Still looking for a 6k to verify total outstanding. Kalani was no doubt part of the selling that took place last week. Also looking for earnings. Not expecting much change in overall performance. Maybe positive earnings, but more importantly is management's discussion (if provided) on next few quarters. That could be a catalyst.