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I'd be happy if ANYONE bought shares.
Maybe this will cease next week. After they break some more hearts, as options that were recently in the money expire worthless friday.
Not quite accurate phrasing to the headline.
http://www.diabetes.co.uk/news/2014/aug/lantus-maker-sanofi-buys-inhaled-insulin-afrezza-93305802.html
Anyone remember when Afrezza's clinical trials are scheduled to wind up before EMA approval?
I think as we learn more about the details of what is reimbursable to MNKD is something that will brighten the picture for investors. Matt is away from the office and some have tried contacting him to get clarification on this, but we may have to wait.
A good article and excellent discussion of COGS pass-thru and such in the comment section.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2420475-properly-treating-costs-re-evaluating-the-mannkind-and-sanofi-partnership?v=1407976830
My thoughts on it are evolving but my impression is that short term traders are controlling this and long term investors are along for the ride. Since traders are running the show and revenue won't show up for at least 9 months, this becomes "dead money" until then and many have moved on. Just my personal thoughts. I'm here long term so its a buying opportunity to people like me.
I think I overdosed on MNKD past two days' action.
Call it a "hypo" reaction.
Aaaaaand down we go. Couldn't get through the 50 day.
Playing with numbers.
Its all about sales in the end.
Some examples of biotech price/sales ratios:
SNY 3.08
JNJ 3.86
AMGN 4.93
CELG 9.83
GILD 8.09
The rapid acting analogue market is currently $9B. (plus insulin naïve patients)
50% of this market is $4.5B (getting to 50% may take a while)
35% share of this is $1.575B (gross)
Using 450M shares = $3.5/share
Using a p/s of say 5 = $17.50/share. (Using 8 = $28)
You will have to adjust the gross rev to net too.
There has been a large short position on this for as long as I can remember, for different reasons. Its amazing to me that it has not been mitigated as risk was removed. I guess there are still unknowns that justify staying short, like potential sales.
Selling the news for traders is Trading 101 for them, so I'm not surprised at any analyst downgrade prior to the partnership announcement.
Thats right.
For the benefit of readers who don't know, many are MM's for the stock who stimulate interest then sell into any rally, or do the reverse. Issue sell recs, then buy as investors are selling.
Analysts are sheep and the last people who I turn to for advice. Especially if they are sell-side. I rate them just above bond rating agencies. None these geniuses covered MNKD and said buy when it was $2, so why listen to them now?
Enrollment is a major time factor. Finding the right participants who fit the criteria.
Doesn't seem to have the legs to get to a new high.
Correct Denise, we need to be sure we are not becoming myopic about the current price situation. If we believe Afrezza is a winner, sales will follow.
Next Fib support is 7.64. We need Sanofi believers to step in and buy because MNKD's are nonexistent.
The iHub price quote box has a severe lag. Don't pay attention to it.
When Sanofi starts selling Afrezza in Q1 2015. That should turn this around. Not enjoying this "long squeeze".
I guess it will come down to earnings. When they arrive, it will be garlic to vampire shorts.
What time is Al supposed to be interviewed on CNBC this morning?
Do we have to wait for upgrades now too?
Come on share price, Get on up.
I hear you, but not ready to have a WTF moment yet.
Now that it has been further de-risked, institutions will now commit. MNKD just shift to a higher gear.
A "pyrrhic victory" was a historic battle where the cost of victory came with tremendous losses. To paraphrase the general after the battle, "If this is a victory, I cannot afford another like this".
I would not even call it pyrrhic. I'd call it a Lost Cause.
Today is definitely a two-monitor day with all the info.
Cramer just commented on Sanofi news. Said there will be a battle with shorts today but it will be "pyrrhic".
CC just ended. anyone know the premarket volume at the moment?
Yes thats huge! No need to go to the well for more funding for Technosphere platform development.
They get $350M up front (including collaboration expenses) and its back loaded to pay them another $775M if they meet milestones in sales. If you believe in Afrezza, this is a given. So they will receive $1B plus their 35% cut. I can live with that.
Conference call scheduled for 8:30am. Go to Mannkind website and register to hear webcast.
http://edge.media-server.com/m/p/mwy4i4iu/lan/en
Shorts, a song just for you.
How Ya Like Me Now?
This deal is for "worldwide exclusive license agreement". They ARE the US partner now.
Reasons to be cheerful:
$175M up front with potential for another $775M for milestones.
Sanofi picks up MNKD's share of the collaboration expenses, $175M.
I'm good, but Sanofi should send Al's wife roses each anniversary.
I have to say I'm disappointed with this deal. Only 35% for MNKD.
Monday's CC info was in their PR:
http://www.news.mannkindcorp.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=147953&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1955630&highlight=
Earnings announcement is before the open tomorrow.
http://seekingalpha.com/news/1920635-notable-earnings-before-monday-s-open?uprof=45#email_link
AstraZeneca has a very interesting job post for Global Marketing Director for a "novel diabetes brand".
DESCRIPTION
A unique opportunity to globally shape the launch success of a novel diabetes brand.
This commercial role focuses on leading the development and implementation of the brand strategy and the tactical plan which supports the global brand strategy, life cycle management plan, and brand operational plan. Critical success in this role will come from working closely with markets to understand changing market trends, localize global strategy and share best practices.
http://jobs.newscientist.com/job/1401522517/global-marketing-director-diabetes-product/
Yes, I think he was from Sequenom as I remember. I owned them for a while.
I feel much better about them after your post and look forward to IR's reply to my questions which will overlap yours somewhat.
I have had to be more selective with diagnostic testing companies due to some hits (like NSPH) but I still like TROV's chances.
Surprise, all the talk of short activity is overdone.
The put/call ratio is at .729, so there are more upside than downside bets.
Thanks jcimdog1. Ironically I just sent IR a message with my questions not 10 minutes ago. Too bad I didn't see your message before then, but thank you for your efforts.
I wish they would address this issue and discuss it in a presentation because I think its a drag on the stock. It gives the appearance that they are dodging the issue. It was only referred to in the CC in the vaguest terms too.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2404995-trovagenes-trov-ceo-antonius-schuh-on-q2-2014-results-earnings-call-transcript?page=5&p=qanda&l=last
Very true. A teacher once told me "Sometimes its not a battle of the intellect, but of the will".
I can see a MNKD commercial where they give a quick silent review of Al Mann's contributions such as his pacemaker, cochlear implant, the insulin pump, then show him smiling as he says, "I'm not done yet". Then show the Dreamboat inhaler being used.