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Good lord, the same people still messing with this one I see. Stuntmen are afraid of this one. What's with the attraction to ultra risk here? Is it intransigence or laziness that keeps you from finding greener fields? Really people, this is a Quixotic adventure.
Does anyone recall that the Z160 trial would be finished first, but that they would likely wait to announce the results of both at the same time if they had positive news for both? I believe Jason Napodano alluded to this possibility. I'm worried about the results for Z160 now.
This was down 38% at one point today, but looking at Data Tools/Trades, not one share was sold today? Very strange.
So much for forward guidance. They planned on raising $10M in Q4 but raised $23M. So instead of 13.3% dilution, we have 30.6%. I'll wait to buy it at $2.00 too.
Just got a fill @ $1.62, but it went to 1.55. Can't find any news yet. It would be nice if the Baker Bros stepped in and did more shopping.
Its been in a bearish triangle formation for a while and finally broke support.
He thought he was on the Yahoo MB where that would be considered a worthy and insightful comment.
No, no. That's not what I'm saying.
Its something that they should be touting and explaining more to investors and on their website. Why do I have to go to message boards or SA articles to be educated about THEIR work? This is what THEY should be doing, but they are not educating investors who are curious about their business. Help potential investors with some serious DD links. I should not have to go anywhere else other than their website to get what info is available on their company. Why not post the link to this patent, for example? Heck, post links to SA articles, or analyst reports. What I'm saying is they fall short in this area.
I have to say I'm really excited about the recent patent filing for the B-cell stress test using MANF as a biomarker to ID the diabetic precondition earlier. This diagnostic could be much bigger than LymPro. It’s a shame that appreciation of the significance too often comes from message boards and not the company itself. It should be the other way around.
http://patentscope.wipo.int/search/en/detail.jsf?docId=WO2013112602&recNum=224&docAn=US2013022768&queryString=%22oligosaccharide%22&maxRec=23237
Alzheimer's-related genetic mutation: Autosomal Dominant Alzheimer's. The 3 gene mutations are: PSEN1, PSEN2 and APP.
"..Solanezumab is a monoclonal antibody designed to clear amyloid plaques in the brain, as mentioned before, and successfully does so, but does not cure or significantly slow AD. Despite these failures however, evidence suggests that cognitive decline was slowed somewhat in these trials. Now Eli Lilly is at it again with a solanezumab Phase III trial, but with a very interesting twist: a different type of Alzheimer's patients. Namely, patients that have no disease symptoms at all, but have tested positive for a dominant genetic mutation that is known to cause early onset Alzheimer's. This mutation is called Autosomal Dominant Alzheimer's. It is extremely rare, but provides the only opportunity to test amyloid-clearing treatment in completely asymptomatic patients that will, with a high degree of certainty, develop Alzheimer's in the future."
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1773372-amarantus-lympro-may-be-more-crucial-for-alzheimers-treatment-than-we-think?v=1382797284&source=tracking_notify#comment_update_link
Alzheimer's disease (AD) patients with an inherited form of the disease carry mutations in the presenilin proteins (PSEN1; PSEN2) or in the amyloid precursor protein (APP). These disease-linked mutations result in increased production of the longer form of amyloid-beta (main component of amyloid deposits found in AD brains). Presenilins are postulated to regulate APP processing through their effects on gamma-secretase, an enzyme that cleaves APP. Also, it is thought that the presenilins are involved in the cleavage of the Notch receptor, such that they either directly regulate gamma-secretase activity or themselves are protease enzymes. Several alternatively spliced transcript variants encoding different isoforms have been identified for this gene, the full-length nature of only some have been determined.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/gene/5663
New SA article for SQNM that discusses upcoming catalysts.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1776352-sequenom-is-a-good-short-term-play?source=email_rt_article_readmore
I bought BECAUSE of the CMS coding issue. It will be resolved and the backlog of payments will boost the revenue, this Q or next.
Biotech red flags list. Good article.
http://www.biotechduediligence.com/1/post/2013/10/5-more-red-flags-biotech-investors-should-heed.html
Biotech red flags list. Great article.
http://www.biotechduediligence.com/1/post/2013/10/5-more-red-flags-biotech-investors-should-heed.html
Biotech red flags to watch for. Great article.
http://www.biotechduediligence.com/1/post/2013/10/5-more-red-flags-biotech-investors-should-heed.html
All they have to do is make 51% of the shareholders happy to gain control. If a settlement figure is more than they feel is reasonable, I would expect them to contact the top shareholders and discuss buying their shares to get control. Once they get control of the board, they can steer legal action in their favor.
Just trying to think like a Pfizer lawyer, and good chess players.
I would like a discussion comparing the pros and cons of Pfizer's settlement cost vs. taking control of ILNS outright; buying controlling interest in the shares. I think the settlement cost expectations for them are a bit on the wild side when it might be cheaper for Pfizer just to buy up shares. They will do which ever is cheaper.
It bounced off Fib resistance @ 4.90.
INO mentioned in new Life Sciences Report:
http://www.thelifesciencesreport.com/pub/na/15679?utm_source=delivra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=TLSR+Final+10-24-13
And it would save many of us a lot of time reading useless posts if the same circular discussions ceased.
Another company taking a run at Amyloid Beta reduction. What's that they say about the definition of insanity?
http://www.fiercebiotech.com/story/alzheimers-team-tackles-daunting-rd-field-new-game-plan/2013-10-23?utm_medium=nl&utm_source=internal
I was hoping the new ticker symbol would be "ROAR", or maybe "MEOW". :)
Thanks, Renee.
This has been FDA approved since 2008, so where is the demand? What's marketing been doing?
With only $84K, they have to do financing soon too.
Just the fact that its not selling off with so many other small biotechs today says something too.
Dilution should happen soon according to the company presentation (Q4 2013). In it they mention raising $10m gross and listed a market cap of $75m, so that would be 13.3% dilution or a little over 2m shares. That would price the offering at about $5.00/share, unless they needed to add a discount to complete the offering if not fully subscribed.
Solid advice for CEOs dealing with short sellers, especially #3:
http://www.dbsable.com/1/post/2013/09/better-than-telling-short-sellers-to-go-eff-themselves.html
Solid advise for CEO's facing short sellers from David Sable:
http://www.dbsable.com/1/post/2013/09/better-than-telling-short-sellers-to-go-eff-themselves.html
Absolutely, and thanks for the reminder. Market cap is what its all about. I think sometimes investors focus too much on the share price when its all about the market cap in the end.
Its helpful to look at charts once in a while that show the cap rather than the price to remind us of this metric. The share price can be distorted by dilution, but not the cap.
YCharts has this feature.
Yes, liquidity will be a factor to attract investors. I was going to go into the liquidity issue but didn't.
Remember the post RS shares may be ~28m, but add the shares from a new offering which I put at 5m+, so in the end that's about 33-34m shares OS which would be in the ballpark for minimum liquidity the market wants to see, IMO.
Once we know the RS ratio, we will be able to have a better idea of the size of a potential new share offering.
Hard to say since every time I turn around they issue more shares well before they said they would, but this is my guess:
1) The release of good news on LymPro and/or announce a licensing deal for it will begin the process and should drive the share price over .10 which will trigger more dilution later (~173m).
2) Soon after positive news they will do a reverse split of maybe 1:25, so if there are 700m shares OS at that point, it would bring it down to about 28m shares. I'm not concerned about a RS, since it's basically revaluing shares by adjusting the shares OS, but the big plus is that it will enable an uplisting.
Dilution is another story.
3) At that point they will issue more shares. I expect 20% dilution, which would be another 5.6m shares. With 173m shares coming around that same time due to the .10 price being tripped, I would not expect more than 20%. Needless to say, I would not be buying until after this last stage is completed and the share price has had time to settle down.
Just my personal opinion.
If they can replicate MANF doses the way they replicate shares they will be in fine shape.
Very interesting new theory on a common link to neurodegenerative diseases like Parkinson’s and Alzheimer’s: both are caused by specific proteins that misfold and aggregate, very similar to what prion proteins do. And prions are abundant in the brain too.
The term "prions" refers to abnormal, pathogenic agents that are transmissible and are able to induce abnormal folding of specific normal cellular proteins called prion proteins that are found most abundantly in the brain.
http://www.kurzweilai.net/prion-like-proteins-drive-several-diseases-of-aging-say-leading-neurology-researchers
Yes, very interesting. I've seen both indications mentioned as Prion-like diseases, but they cannot be transmitted like prion diseases. There are other striking similarities though.
http://www.kurzweilai.net/prion-like-proteins-drive-several-diseases-of-aging-say-leading-neurology-researchers
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23390095
Don't know about a shareholder's vote, but ZLCS has done this type of thing in the past:
"..And, if there is a near-term need for funding, that may not be such a bad thing, as ZLCS tends to raise money in conjunction with big milestones and key drug developments."
http://www.smallcapnetwork.com/Zalicus-Inc-NASDAQ-ZLCS-Right-Stock-Wrong-Time/s/via/10/article/view/p/mid/2/id/106/
So the precedent is there.
Thats my understanding of FoldRx. As a subsidiary of Pfizer, its not likely they will have anything for the public unless it goes to clinical trials. I suppose Dr. Lindquist is working for them now.
I was interested in FOLD until this summer when they dropped the ball, but I like the collaboration with Biogen for Parkinson's.
Yes, Orphan Drug status will reduce the cost of the Ph 3, but if they have good news and the share price pops up, I would be surprised if they did not take the opportunity to raise funds on the move.
I agree. After the emotion of the run up and the RS, I decided to wait until after results and subsequent dilution to fund Ph 3. Yes I expect positive results, but don't want to absorb 20-30% dilution in the process. I'll let it marinate after the next offering and watch it settle back down before I step in. I'll wait for a good price after the dust settles and will have less risk.
You don't sound too enthused about it. Like you gave your wife $50 to go shopping just to get her out of the house for the afternoon.
That's a good point about a "silent period". BD may determine for their own reasons when it gets released. Especially if they intend to license it. It gives them time to get their ducks in a row.