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SPX Pop at Fibonacci 60% Retracement
The past couple of days of rally have retraced the sell off from last week's high. Structurally the retracement looks like a zigzag. There is also a fibonacci ratio in time 50%. Wave structure and fiboacci ratios signal with higher probability there will be a top today.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Index&symb=spx&time=18&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=7%2F26%2F2012&freq=9&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&style=320&size=2&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=8&x=58&y=4
SPX Correction Over
The post triangle thrust in the SPX futures occurred in the pre-market. The same pattern shows up nicely in the German DAX. The next move is down. It may be part of a larger corrective rally, or it may be the next degree of the larger trend.
As far as labeling wave counts on graphs, I only have a basic membership, so I don't have permission to post charts only links.
SPX Futures Clear E-wave
Yesterday's rally of the low is a corrective zigzag. wave a is complete. wave b is a nearly complete textbook triangle. wave c should start today, and maybe end. Upside target 1350 to 1355.
http://charts.insidestocks.com/chart.asp?sym=esu2&data=Z60&date=042207&den=HIGH&divd=n&evnt=ADV&grid=Y&jav=ADV&size=D&sky=N&sly=N&vol=Y&late=Y&ch1=011&arga=&argb=&argc=&ov1=&argd=&arge=&argf=&ch2=&argg=&argh=&argi=&ov2=&argj=&argk=&argl=&code=BSTKIC&org=stk
SPX Trendline Broken.
The trendline from last Thursday's low has been broken. Look for even more selling through next week.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=spx&time=&freq=
SPX Rally Nearly Done.
The rally off last Thursday's low is a double zigzag, presently near the end of the zag. There is a chance prices in most US markets will successfully challenge the early July 2012 highs.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=&symb=spx&time=18&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=7%2F18%2F2012&freq=9&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&style=320&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=9&x=0&y=0
Filter's Transient Characteristics
I'll have to tinker with basic signals in isolation of the market to understand what this particular component in the market is doing.
SPX Triangle and Post Thrust Complete.
The zigzag (corrective) pwave off Thursday's low is complete. The post triangle thrust was sharp and reversed so quickly the re was really no opportunity to make a profittable trade.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=spx&time=&freq=
With a smaller degree pattern complete, lets look at larger degree pattern. Is the rally off the June 2012 lows complete? It could be.
Bullish case: The early July 2012 selloff does not look motive with consgestion in the middle of the pattern. Look for a couple days of choppy sideways to slightly down trading before a challenge of the 1380 levels is made.
Bearish case: The rally last week off the 1325 area was a truncated effort of a complex correction. Look out below! Here comes Wave 3 of the same degree as the Early April 2012 to Late May 2012 selloff. Target is below 1200.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p51434266599
OddLot-How Many Cycles for proper ID
You would need 3 or 4 cycles to be able to reasonably identify a cycle. Filters wich use previous outputs that are fed back need time to settle. Filters which use only present inputs pick up harmonics, as much as 25% of the nearest cycle. By using many cycles worth of data, the parasitic effects of harmonics is lessened. There are sooo many tradeoffs going on.
DinDinDon Band Pass Filtering
I'm at the point in your last statement:
"At this moment, if you see magnitude starting to show resonant frequency, it is an evidence that the hutting cycle is active but there is NO EASY WAY TO GET RELIABLE QUANTITATIVE DATA."
I've been using Fourier analysis which is a single lowpass filter and a series of band pass filters whose center frequencies are harmonically related. Fourier series also fall into the larger Finite Impulse Response (window filters) filter catagory, which has no memory of past filter outputs. Butterworth and Cheby filters are typically represented as difference equations, making up the Infinite Impulse Response filter category, which has memory of past filter outputs. The data I posted was from a window filter of 15000 points that has 400 cosine cycles as filter coefficients. It is HIGHLY selective.
The graphs showing settling is a phenomena I regularly observe using bandpass filters of both types. I've been able to simulate this using an input signal with a constant amplitude and linearly varying frequency ( something like frequency modulation), or using an input signal of a constant frequency and varying amplitude (something like amplitude modulation). In reality, the market is doing both.
I'm back to where my original post asks, "What does it mean about the trend when the magnitude of the output of a bandpass filter over the positive half of the cycle is greater than the magnitude of the negative half of the cycle?"
SPX Intraday Triangle Alert
Today has traded sideways in what looks like a textbook triangle. The pattern is in wave e and set to make a sharp move. Go long if it hits 1358. Short if the price falls below 1351.
The alternate count is a corrective move down at today's open followed by wave b triangle, with one more corrective wave down.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Index&symb=spx&time=2&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=7%2F16%2F2012&freq=9&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&style=320&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=9&x=44&y=6
SPX Bandpass Filter Output
I noticed something really strange about this bandpass filter output of the SPX. The period is about 37.5 days. Note how the amplitude of the peak is significantly greater than the amplitude of the trough. I'll need more time to think about why it happens and what it means.
The most recent data is at the top of the list. When plotting in Excel, format the axis for reverse order.
-0.15050142
-0.191377527
-0.224021658
-0.244524101
-0.25610273
-0.257541519
-0.250234653
-0.233207116
-0.208346418
-0.17552297
-0.133742531
-0.084929603
-0.026639043
0.034618278
0.098993074
0.163796668
0.223500386
0.280433544
0.32765137
0.367456379
0.400752456
0.425051447
0.441178631
0.448716929
0.444311107
0.431332062
0.405920702
0.372464776
0.330511189
0.285173326
0.234851861
0.180074357
0.118197412
0.054960465
-0.009890228
-0.06996059
-0.12575219
-0.175023193
-0.216265413
-0.248520181
-0.268132429
-0.278522807
-0.280764957
-0.2729104
-0.255421553
-0.229790831
-0.195345695
-0.15204071
-0.102816915
-0.04868868
0.009601256
0.067324198
0.124346578
0.179957282
0.234005896
0.283114708
0.326999996
0.365145996
0.397640106
0.42170357
0.434415864
0.437154134
0.428587783
0.409291839
0.383369733
0.348695541
0.30412274
0.255734439
0.203766601
0.14530221
0.083117299
0.021049714
-0.040834274
-0.099521805
-0.151145013
-0.19488528
-0.230427838
-0.257354733
-0.274465929
-0.278178974
-0.270387398
-0.253199475
-0.226145021
-0.190239578
-0.145243783
-0.093002125
-0.034199641
0.028088503
0.095502527
0.162776813
0.228537967
0.29193151
0.350520992
0.398586237
0.436795482
0.464146632
0.481533183
0.486481757
0.480287932
0.462768723
0.434503041
US Market tops are in.
With the SPX futures down 11 points, the top on Tuesday was THE top I was looking for, but was much weaker than expected. I'm going to update calculations this weekend.
NYA Cluster of Tops
I have a 14 and 60 day periods topping today,
The 8 day period tops today-tomorrow.
The 90 and 300 day periods are approaching a top, but have a week or two to go.
The 30 and 180 day periods are in the middle of their rally.
The 4-6 day period is elusive because of volatility and filter fidelity.
Long term upside is limited.
OddLot - Chebychev Filters
This class of filter is more sensitive to coefficients in the recursive equation. The recursion must be run for at least 1/2 of the period of interest before magnitude and phase can be determined. This is a manually laborious way to generate the spectrum, but a very quick way to perform time analysis. I tried automating magnitude and phase detection before from the time respnose. The underlying trend varies too much that as it moves in and out of the filter band multiple zero crossings can occur in less than half a cycle. Worse yet, a "cycle" may never have a zero crossing.
Using a window filter (finite impulse response), the spectrum can be estimated very quickly; however, the time response calculations are more computer intense due to convolution. One benefit of spectral analysis is the ability to create more reliable timing oscillators. For now I will use this approach since I can better handle exceptions to the ideal model than writing pages of software. I also gain much more knowledge how the markets ebb and flow.
SPX Bottom In?
The RSI has been making higher low while the SPX price made slightly lower lows. This is a positive divergence that indicates the price is about to head higher.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Index&symb=spx&time=18&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=7%2F9%2F2012&freq=9&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=2&lf2=4&lf3=0&type=2&style=320&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=11&x=52&y=8
OddLot - projection degradation.
That's definitely on my to-do list. I need to automate trend identification and projection processes in order to get a thorough metric. One thing I've noticed with the shorter periods is they have much more variation in amplitude and frequency than longer cycles. The 8 day period was as short as I could go with daily data and have enough confidence making a projection. I would make an educated guess that a projection is valid for 1/2 the period of the shortest period in the composite. My projections are really only good for 4 days since the shortest period is 8 days. I can remove the 8 day period, leaving the 14 day period as the smallest in order to project a general direction of 7 days. Here's what I'm looking for with this tool: that a trend exists with an X% move within the time frame, and spends more than Y% of time in the trend. That would give a margin of safety monitoring trend changes as well as a getting in and out of a trade.
OddLot -Spectral Info
I forgot to indicate the analysis is for the NYSE since it has the clearest E-wave patterns. That means the target/resistance is the 8000 level.
More specifically in regards to the chart with the moving averages in your recent post: Moving averages are lowpass filters that block periods which are harmonics of the filter's period. A 90 day moving average will show everything with a period longer than 90 days, but not harmonics with periods of 90, 45, 22.5 ... days, and only a fraction (as much as 20%) of magnitudes for all other periods less than 90 days, but longer than 2 days.
Here is a table of data. The left side is the NYA closing price. 7801.84 is the close on Friday June 29, 2012, the last date on which the analysis was based. The right side is the backfit and projection. The data at the top of the table is in the future, data at the bottom is in the past.
0 8007.886251
0 8051.446353
0 8062.589195
0 8026.792707
0 7953.457151
0 7868.727659
7756.62 7799.261028
7937.77 7757.019489
7901.67 7734.287715
7832 7711.595959
7801.84 7673.137904
7597.5 7619.601541
7598.05 7569.96788
7527.08 7550.761856
7491.87 7579.176976
7616.59 7650.521045
7566.11 7738.023262
7757.92 7805.636822
7766.26 7826.582722
7662.29 7796.839802
7664.26 7735.771605
7582.82 7673.779899
7506.42 7634.594123
7557.82 7622.84815
7459.29 7624.137779
For the first 3 days of the forecast the projection matched the path of the market well. The projection shows a strong upward bias for the coming week. A simple strategy would be to get out of long positions by the end of next week, and wait until about Wednesday july 18 (after the projection tops) to go short.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYA&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p57524022598
If e-waves don't work, use cycles.
I've been working on spectral techniques lately, again. All computations use data as of the close of Friday June 29. When I use the term "period", I'm not referring to nominal hurst cycles.
The 8 day period bottomed today with an amplitude of about 55 points
The 14 day period should top around Tuesday of next week, with an amplitude of about 95.
The 30 day period bottomed last Friday, with an amplitude of 105.
The 60 day period should top with the 14 day period next week, with an amplitude of 67.
The 90 day period is in the later stages of a strong move up, with an amplitude of 92.
The 160 day period is entering the strongest point of its rally, with an amplitude of 440.
The 320 day period is getting toppy, with an amplitude of 200.
Over the next 5 days, the general direction should be UP. Then a top.
Textbook Triangle in SPX futures
The alt count is a double zigzag correction; however, wave b is a textbokk triangle. We'll know soon enough because the primary count of a triangle is just finishing wave e.
http://charts.insidestocks.com/chart.asp?sym=esu2&data=Z05&date=051406&den=HIGH&divd=Y&evnt=ADV&grid=Y&jav=ADV&size=D&sky=Y&sly=N&vol=Y&late=Y&ch1=011&arga=&argb=&argc=&ov1=&argd=&arge=&argf=&ch2=&argg=&argh=&argi=&ov2=&argj=&argk=&argl=&code=BSTKIC&org=stk
New York Stock Exchange E-Waves
The SPX, INDU, RUT, and NDX have been tricky to count e-waves. Out of curiousity, I took a look at the New York Stock Exchange Average. The E-Waves jumped right off the screen.
WAVE 1 May 2011 to October 2011
WAVE 2 October 2011 to April 2012 (truncation)
WAVE 3 - Wave 1 April 2012 to June 2012
WAVE 3 - Wave 2 June 2012 to nearly finished double zigzag, possibly ending next week.
With WAVE 3 - Wave 3 coming into play, this summer should be a bloodbath for US stocks.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYA&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p86476544172
SPX Futures E-Waves
Had I looked at the SPX futures chart, I would have the seen the triangle AND it's post thrust in the pre market instead of waiting to see it in the open market in the early afternoon.
Anyway, the downdraft is the confirmation to a trend change. There should be a little bounce tomorrow as investors clear their head of tweety birds or stars. The markets are in a Large Wave 3, or a cascade of waves 1-2 is underway.
http://charts.insidestocks.com/chart.asp?sym=esu2&data=Z10&date=051406&den=HIGH&divd=Y&evnt=ADV&grid=Y&jav=ADV&size=D&sky=Y&sly=N&vol=Y&late=Y&ch1=011&arga=&argb=&argc=&ov1=&argd=&arge=&argf=&ch2=&argg=&argh=&argi=&ov2=&argj=&argk=&argl=&code=BSTKIC&org=stk
DowDeva- EWaves Tell Same Story
I'm still giving the Wave 2 Flat (started at mid May lows) count highest probability for the SPX. Today's intraday action shows a possible wave 4 of wave C of Wave 2. A sharp rally at any moment challenging yesterday's highs would confirm the triangle.
Regardless, there have been 5 waves UP; therefore, a turn is expected sooner rather than later.
http://charts.barchart.com/chart.asp?sym=$INX&data=Z60&date=051406&den=HIGH&divd=Y&evnt=ADV&grid=Y&jav=ADV&size=D&sky=Y&sly=N&vol=Y&late=Y&ch1=011&arga=&argb=&argc=&ov1=&argd=&arge=&argf=&ch2=&argg=&argh=&argi=&ov2=&argj=&argk=&argl=&code=BSTKIC&org=stk
SPX Futures e-waves
Since the beginning of June 2012, the SPX futures have formed an overlapping 5 segment advance. This is corrective at best, and very bearish in the long run as it would be Wave c of Wave 2 flat correction which started off the mid May 2012 lows.
Look for a top in the near future, and a sharp drop through the summer.
http://charts.insidestocks.com/chart.asp?sym=esu2&data=Z60&date=051406&den=HIGH&divd=Y&evnt=ADV&grid=Y&jav=ADV&size=D&sky=Y&sly=N&vol=Y&late=Y&ch1=011&arga=&argb=&argc=&ov1=&argd=&arge=&argf=&ch2=&argg=&argh=&argi=&ov2=&argj=&argk=&argl=&code=BSTKIC&org=stk
Adding to Chuck's Comment...
The SPX and INDU have tagged the upper bollinger band Friday and today, as well as the 50 day avg. The bollinger bands are widening. These are also market events to keep an eye on.
Stochastics have entered the overbought zone. There are no technical divergences involving this month's rally at the moment.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p35465223661
Cycle Questions on Cycle Translation
I noticed a dominant 2-day cycle on the intraday charts
The first started last Wednesday, and was right translated. It peaked after the middle of the cycle in terms of time, and the price ended higher. I think this is supposed to be bullish.
The second one (Friday morning into Tuesday morning) was symmetrical in time and price. Does this indicate a top?
The third one was peaked after the middle of the cycle, the cycle peak did not exceed the previous cycle high, and the price barely made a gain. Is it marginally right translated? Is it bullish or bearish?
Is there a pattern to cycle translations which will help prediict the fourth cycle which started this morning? It looks like it will be left translated, and may not break the last cycle peak. Is this potentially bearish?
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=spx&time=&freq=
Major SPX Resistance in 1325 Area
Today is the 4th attempt at breaking above 1325!
http://charts.barchart.com/chart.asp?sym=$INX&data=Z60&date=051406&den=HIGH&divd=Y&evnt=ADV&grid=Y&jav=ADV&size=D&sky=Y&sly=N&vol=Y&late=Y&ch1=011&arga=&argb=&argc=&ov1=&argd=&arge=&argf=&ch2=&argg=&argh=&argi=&ov2=&argj=&argk=&argl=&code=BSTKIC&org=stk
GOLD
I've been counting Gold in a year-long triangle consolidation. Prechter has a double zigzag count, but with caution. Both counts imply another major rally for gold.
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2012/06/13/Gold-Prices-At-A-Key-Do-Or-Die-Juncture.aspx
SPX Alert.
The rally off yesterday's lows has been very choppy. Wait for a clean break below 1315 for confirmation of a new downtrend.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=spx&time=&freq=
Perfect Shampoo for the SPX...
Head and Shoulders. Over the last 4 days the SPX looks to be in a head and shoulders pattern. The right soulder is yet to complete, but it may at any minute. The neckline tilts down slightly to the right, so there is a downside potential. If the right shoulder is smaller in height compared to the left, then additional downside potential is interpreted.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=spx&time=&freq=
SPX FUTURES - wave c of Wave 2 Flat Complete.
Look - Out - Below.
The rally out of June 1 (wave c of Wave 2) is done. It is definitely motive. The channels made by connecting the tops of waves 1 and 3, and bottoms of waves 2 and 4 are fairly parallel. This is a nearly textbook case and helps reassure the count.
http://charts.insidestocks.com/chart.asp?sym=esu2&data=Z60&date=051406&den=HIGH&divd=Y&evnt=ADV&grid=Y&jav=ADV&size=D&sky=Y&sly=N&vol=Y&late=Y&ch1=011&arga=&argb=&argc=&ov1=&argd=&arge=&argf=&ch2=&argg=&argh=&argi=&ov2=&argj=&argk=&argl=&code=BSTKIC&org=stk
Investor Intelligence Chart
I find it very strange that the %Bulls has dropped so much, yet the %Bears has risen only slightly. In fact the bulls are now at a level associated with the September 2011 lows, but the bears are nowhere near the September 2011 level. I guess it's saying investors are very unsure of the future market direction. Once the direction is decided, it's going to move fast.
http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/streetools/market_tools/investors_intelligence.aspx
GOLD E-wave Set-up In The Making
Over the past 10 months gold has been in a large choppy decline. It looks like a giant triangle. Wave d of the triangle may have completed. The structure is there, but it is of very short duration. Wave e has not completed. Keep an eye on gold because if it does turn out to be a triangle, the post triangle move will be HUGE.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p57834590229
SPX Flat Correction nearly done.
The Wave 2 flat count starts on May 23.
Today wave c of Wave 2 flat is nearly complete.
The correction since May 23 has good time proportion with the May selloff.
Regardless of larger degree wave counts, a motive wave has occurred, and a change of direction is expected sooner than later.
http://charts.insidestocks.com/chart.asp?sym=$INX&data=Z60&date=051406&den=HIGH&divd=Y&evnt=ADV&grid=Y&jav=ADV&size=D&sky=Y&sly=N&vol=Y&late=Y&ch1=011&arga=&argb=&argc=&ov1=&argd=&arge=&argf=&ch2=&argg=&argh=&argi=&ov2=&argj=&argk=&argl=&code=BSTKIC&org=stk
SPX E-wave Back to Flat Correction
Today's sharp rally has placed the 2 week flat correction back as the prefered count. That give the market another 2-4 days of rally and topping.
SPX Futures - Tuesday E-wave Update
The previous count of a completed 2 day zigzag (corrective rally) has morphed into a larger zigzag. The ending diagonal I counted in an earlier post was a smaller degree triangle.
While the futures are up slightly, the time and price of zig and zag are nearly identical. The time of the corrective move forms a fibonacci ratio of 2/3 with the May 29 selloff, and a price fibonacci ratio of 38%. Wave structure and fibonacci ratios signal a high probability top.
Let's see how things look in the morning.
http://charts.insidestocks.com/chart.asp?sym=esu2&data=Z15&date=051406&den=HIGH&divd=Y&evnt=ADV&grid=Y&jav=ADV&size=D&sky=Y&sly=N&vol=Y&late=Y&ch1=011&arga=&argb=&argc=&ov1=&argd=&arge=&argf=&ch2=&argg=&argh=&argi=&ov2=&argj=&argk=&argl=&code=BSTKIC&org=stk
SPX Futures e-waves Update
Over the weekend and through this morning, the pattern looks like a corrective zigzag, with the zag as an ending diagonal which is truncating. The choppy sideways action indicates this is a corrective rally, which may last a little longer. The market is setting up for a powerful 3 of 3 of 3 at some pretty large degrees of trend.
http://charts.insidestocks.com/chart.asp?sym=ESU2&data=Z15&date=051406&den=HIGH&divd=Y&evnt=ADV&grid=Y&jav=ADV&size=D&sky=Y&sly=N&vol=Y&late=Y&ch1=011&arga=&argb=&argc=&ov1=&argd=&arge=&argf=&ch2=&argg=&argh=&argi=&ov2=&argj=&argk=&argl=&code=BSTKIC&org=stk
Uh-Oh, SPX Futures down 9 pts.
And the move was very linear. I think a wave 3 of 3 situation is unfolding at a higher degree of trend rather than a bottom of wave b of a flat.
http://charts.insidestocks.com/chart.asp?sym=esu2&data=Z10&date=051406&den=HIGH&divd=Y&evnt=ADV&grid=Y&jav=ADV&size=D&sky=Y&sly=N&vol=Y&late=Y&ch1=011&arga=&argb=&argc=&ov1=&argd=&arge=&argf=&ch2=&argg=&argh=&argi=&ov2=&argj=&argk=&argl=&code=BSTKIC&org=stk
INDU and SPX - Futures drop, EWave count
Given the huge drop in the futures right now, the best bullish case for this corrective move over the last 2 weeks is a wave 2 flat. wave b, the second zigzag is completing and allowed to end lower than the start of wave a, maybe bottoming today, and wave c rallying early next week. The time and price fibonacci ratios are too short to have confidence the corrective move is over.
The bearish case is: LOOK OUT BELOW! The entire decline for the month of May was Wave 1. Wave 2 is done, and Wave 3 should be a stronger decline than Wave 1.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=spx&time=&freq=
Buzz and RimShot - Prechter's Record
I was only providing a link to a professional's e-wave count for educational purposes only, not promoting Prechter as someone who has a pinpoint predictive ability. I subscribed to Prechter's short term newsletter for a year to help practice e-wave counting. I have to agree with you, I expected better short term accuracy with the equity markets. I think Prechter's e-wave counting in foreign exchange, precious metals, and commodities is much more accurate. When it comess to the macroscopic view, I think the Socionomic model, the basis of e-waves, is extremely helpful determining the "what" part of predictions.
I've been working on a spectral forecasting approach based on Hurst's cyclical market observations. I think spectral analysis has a better potential for more accurate timeline predictions than e-waves. E-wave counting is still a good tool because of its simplicity.
Combining Socionomics and spectral analysis will be the best approach to get more accurate "what and when" predictions.
Prechter's SPX E-wave count.
Corrective rally is over. New short term lows ahead.
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2012/05/30/SP-Traders-How--Simple--Trend-Following-Can-Get-You-Into-Trouble.aspx