Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
For anyone looking for a beginner site for TA;
http://www.stockta.com/cgi-bin/analysis.pl?symb=DSS
It utilizes candles+indicators. Just click on any indicator for an explanation. Punch in any stock and have a looksy. This is how I began in the TA arena.
CHP
In case you didn't know DSS is in a bearish pattern. I am fairly sure you could have come to that conclusion without any TA help. LOL
I just walk into these freight trains on a daily basis. LOL
CHP
I am very familiar with the site. It uses strictly candle stick patterns to decide. Just so you know it predicted that short on 6/5 and look what happened the next six trading days. It actually pulled the short and stated stay long. It changed back to short after down trend began. This site is not very technical and basically tracks trends. For example it will recommend a buy "after" a decent run-up already started. Not bad mouthing but this site is a trailing type indicator. Definitely not the end all to TA.
10-4.
JR2
I NEVER give investment advice. A common mistake sometimes is that investors jump in too soon in a declining PPS stock. I just want to reiterate that 2.19 is in no way a glaring endorsement at this point. There are now two key days left on the calendar in my humble opinion-the close Friday and the open Monday. At this point, as a current investor, all my strategies rely on pen to paper for this merger. JMHO
Support
S1 2.19
S2 2.14
A cautionary note-there really are no hard levels of support and resistance. The charts are agnostic and thats what I think today. 5 days ago resistance was hard at 2.94, today it is 2.40-TA is good for longer term analysis IMO but is a highly inacurate science for day to day.
In reality, it has been where ever EDGX wants to go. Even on slight uptick they have been able to take it down on 100 hsare trades continually.
Let me look at charts after close and I will let you know what I think. Right now I would say 2.20 but honestly the stock has blown through every level the past 4 days.
Used to live in Monterey!! Been up and down PCH more than I can remember. Guess I was born over here and figures i would retire over on this side. Ok I really am hitting the rack.
Cooler
I wish I had more to offer, it is the best "factual" info I could get to you. As you know, we have a good board in which information exchange is great. However it is midnight and I am wore out from watching 4 hours of spring football. Hopefully my response just give all investors something to ponder. LOL Heck I am honestly just learning about MBs and personally think I post too much-but I will reduce that as I stated when I am no longer needed. Have a good one my friend.
Threshold...
I specifically addressed this issue with DSS and at least to me they were not aware of this. However I am absolutely sure Hudson Bay and the other big investors are 100% aware. I do not know how they combat this but I am sure it has come up in management discussions.
Moving Forward.....
I almost sound like I am pumping this darn thing. I hope this is coming across as "possible" explanations for cooler-thats all I am trying to answer here.
The only true question I have had is whether the listing price is $2 or $3. Everyone needs to understand that is a finite number. This is not an arbitrary option for a new listing company. I think the key lies in the "acquirer" in the prospectus that explains the valuation of who has to be on the top line. This is a bit above my pay grade. Lot of legal here and no where in my years did I ever want to be a lawyer. What everyone needs to understand is that Hudson Bay is the only party that counts here. There should be no delusion that anyone or anything matters other than what they want. I spoke with the company twice recently and at no time has anyone given me any reason to believe this is not going through. As a matter of fact, and I quote "this merger was created so as to avoid the NPE designation." No sense asking IR for their job does not require that level of information. Now what?
In my opinion only if this needs to be at $3 then the main investors and the access to investors so as not to dilute shares as Jeff Ronaldi stated would have no problem pushing this to $3 in about 4 hours if they wanted or needed. They also face the same MM hurdle if there is a pronounced short. Personally the release of additional litigation was a little odd to me. First, it would have absolutely no effect on DSS in it's current state and it would be best served to publish after officially signed. Perhaps it was for investors to try and calm their nerves. It really served no practical purpose at this juncture.
I do know that if we hit $2 then the market cap of $50M probably comes into play and that means around 2.31/share. Basically right here. So the question any investor should ask is; are you comfortable with the company trajectory if you know for certain the merger is consummated? That my friends is an individual decision. If someone wants to look at that portion of the prospectus that I am talking about I am sure that might hold some of the story.
Part Two MMs....
"For the scenario where it is the MM acting as seller, what scenario could there be for a MM to want to walk the sp down??? I can see this logic when they act as buyer, but if they have to step in and act as a seller, I would suspect that they would want to make the buyer pay premium pricing if this buyer really wants to get his fill. I'm not an expert on MM ops, so I'm open to hearing whatever anyone's got on these questions"
Let me start by saying absolutely no one can ever predict "why" an MM will take a stock where they do. They serve a very important purpose and typically "retail" investors will blame these big unknown types for all a shares woes. MMs track thousands of stocks a day and I can guarantee you that their only concern is to make a market and make money. Sometimes that involves shorting (regular/naked) pushing PPS up or down. For the most part they get the same news (maybe a few minutes earlier) than you and I get. They see all the requests for buys and sells and at the end of the day will move the stock in the direction that will give them the most profit.
DSS is very thinly traded. As a TA guy it is obvious that this thing is wrapped tight. Not so long ago this thing went from 2.40 to 3.64 on no news in 4 days. Volume was 365K-500K over that 4 day period. I guarantee you this much, no stock moves like that on low volume like that unless there is a short or no stock trading firm hands. As you can see the short interest as well as the threshold list has been part of DSS since that last increase in PPS.
Is there a conspiracy? I don't think so, Do they have to cover-heck its the end of the quarter, I hope so. I watched closely as ARCX remained on the ASK at 2.45 for all but the last 15 minutes two days ago. ARCX is notorious for short selling. They were not buying they were selling. Thats what I call an MM who is on the ASK. I have no idea when they were active and no reference to know when they bought those shares that they sold back. There was a ton of short selling going by the tool I use here before merger vote:
http://www.shortanalytics.com/index.php
Now would it make sense to cover that bet since it actually came through. I would say so but each investor can draw their own conclusions. What I will say is that a market maker makes money going up or down. Saying they are driving it down is a little like the sky is falling IMO. That would infer they have some type of "emotional" attachment with a stock-I assure you there are none.
My next thing will be maybe where it might go...
Where to start....
CHP I will give you my absolute best scenario and I know you already understand I am just one "opinion" in this.
"I know that there are numerous theories as to who is buying down at these levels (i.e. shorts covering in advance of the closing of the merger; accumulation of cheap shares by HF's or other savvy speculators; etc), but the $64M question remains: Who the hell is selling at these ridiculous prices???"
First you need to clarify what "selling" constitutes? Are you asking me is selling on the ASK (which is what someone is willing to pay for the stock) and consequently someone is willing to sell to them or are you asking me if someone is on the BUY which also coincidentally someone must sell to them). Thus is the quandry of all investors. First, I absolutely believe 90% of the last 4 trading days has nothing to do with retail traders. I am willing to bet that all traders and retail types were taken out when it went from 2.72-2.50. You now have two types of retail investors left. The ones that bought on the hype between 3.10-3.45 and those that bought in early between 2.20 and 2.40. Now which of these groups is really going to sell at this point? IMO not many, if any. That leaves us with the MMs. (I will address that in next post). Who would buy at these levels? Well I would if I felt that the merger was good and that I was at or near a bottom. In my very humble opinion this is about where DSS would be if there was no LTG involved. I am basing this on $17M revenue, $2M debt and 20M float.
Next post will address my opinion about MMs.
Well.....
The bottom line up front is that any stock with a drop as DSS has had in the past 4 days is not fun. Once again, a PR regarding the BASCOM litigation does nothing for DSS as they are still separate entities until pen is put to paper. There has only been one time where the stock behaved in the same manner in the past year and that was in March. As was there-no news or such. The only thing I would remind anyone of is that this is a very thinly traded stock. That includes options also. This thing can move up as fast as it moves down. As I have stated in the past-do not marry a stock, trade when your risk tolerance changes and see what happens. The only headache I actually have at this point is the "Pen to Paper" portion. That will alleviate all pressure in owning DSS for everyone. Best I got DOZ.
MGT got off and then went back on. I sent an email to IR and never received an answer. I have something up my sleeve for later today.
LOL That my friend is why you are THE moderator. Good stuff.
These are the same Patents they (BASCOM) are using in FB-LNKD lawsuit.
This has to be a 2nd suit. We have a 7% stake in virtual agility and this announcement states that it is BASCOM bringing the suit. Probably going to help VA a ton.
90% of all trades today took place between 2.4599 and 2.46. Perhaps one of our L2 guys can weigh in and describe the process on that. Agreed, let see what tomorrow brings.
Hulk...Remember this?? LOL
I hear what you say and I agree, he did do some good things for the company but imo I feel he could have done more with the amount of time he was there. I hope we double at this point which is a real possibility, I have held this and added steady throughout the years so my fingers and toes have always been crossed
4/29 on DSS.
This was your response to one of your penny gems posters who had less than glaring things to say about Yippy. LOL I'll let the moderators deal with you.
"Agreed, spot on analysis. Sprinkle in a Bonehead as Ceo and we have a classic case of Fugazzi Gold"
From the man who trades EWST and Yippy. Thanks for the input.
Looks like my EKG after a night out with the boys.
Well lets see which way EDGX wants to take us today. Looks like ARCX is about done selling and EDGX on BID. As usual the flurry starts after 3:00PM but usually around 3:40PM.
Level 2...
The reason L2 is not a reliable indicator per say is shown here.
Today at 10:24 the ASK has continually shown 16-18K available at that price.(2.46) A careful examination of trades would show that over 30K has been executed at that price. Remember during the course of the day there has to be a buyer for every seller and vice versa. The question will always be...who is buying and who is selling? Perhaps Boston Trader can go deeper but just wanted those without access to know what was currently going on...GL
Me too...Check your email
The volume matches all other trading sites but price is incorrect. I saw the last trade at 4:03 for 2.64. That was the previous days close.
Warrants
Now there are several things to consider.
1. At 4.80 there would have been a known line in the sand of which you could predict the shares (almost 5M) would be available for sale. The price would have been higher so they couldn't take PPS down during sale, so that would have been a controlled event.
2. Now the relationship, which I believe is very close, between Honig, Hudson, IPNAV and Frost comes into play. After merger HUDSON has beneficial ownership of 9.99% and will be unable to sell their warrants. IPNAV will have 8.99% and Honig 7.59%. I do not think that Hudson would take kindly to either of the other two selling off and lowering the value of their investment since they have put the most financially into the deal.
3. Now you may wonder if someone would be willing to short this down to .02. I absolutely believe that is an impossibility. The amount of money invested by the big 5 to this point, the amount of money and almost one year it took to complete merger by LTG/DSS and the pending lawsuit would all nullify that. Not to mention the 7.1M shares still available.
These things are put in to protect the large investors should the proposed warrants fail. Most of the time investors hear "more shares issued" anywhere they think dilution. The net effect is the same sans predictability. I think this was voted down by non insiders misunderstanding what would happen.
Sent
Total Stock....
I have really tried to deduce the "actual" number of stock the company will have. I think I have looked at too much and have a block in my scalp. My guess is 45M-52M but that is a huge difference. The formulas vary and warrants are kind of all over so probably someone with a keen eye for that stuff would be better equipped than me.
There are a lot of stock that has become option cleared from what I am looking at on 4/24 or 6/23. Also BDZICK is going to cash out 300K shares sometime soon after 7/1 probably. SEC filings should be watched when they come out.
Just sent email if yours begins with N
#3 Hudson Bay
It is quite obvious Hudson Bay has a HUGE amount of potential gain at stake here. Followed closely by IPNAV and Barry Honig. What I didn't realize was that this deal was actually initiated by Hudson Bay. After initially being rejected they got together with Barry Honig and actually got DSS to change their mind about merger. Honig and Hudson are key to the PPS in my opinion. If someone has experience with them and how they treat a stock and when they pull trigger to leave, then that may be far more insightful then trying to figure out the MMs.
#2..Failure to approve staggered board.......
This has several ramifications. First the board make up will now be 4 representatives from DSS and 4 representatives from LTG. The ninth position will be filled by Richard Cohen.
Purchase Price Allocation if Lexington is determined to be the accounting acquirer:
In accordance with the accounting treatment of the Merger as a reverse acquisition, the fair value of the outstanding equity of the accounting acquiree immediately prior to the Merger is used to calculate the purchase price of the net assets by the combined company. The purchase price is allocated to the fair value of the acquired company’s assets and liabilities on the date of the Merger, with any remainder assigned to goodwill. The pro-forma unaudited balance sheet as of December 31, 2012 presented below reflects the allocation of the preliminary estimated purchase price of approximately $68 million which is the expected estimated fair value of DSS’s outstanding common stock on the date of the Merger based on share price of $3.12 which was the closing price of DSS common stock on May 3, 2013, and the outstanding stock of DSS as of May 3, 2013. The final purchase price allocation will depend significantly on DSS’s future share price and the final estimate of the fair value of the intangible assets acquired, and consequently, might significantly differ from the values presented in these pro-forma statements. While DSS uses its best estimates and assumptions as part of the purchase price allocation process to value, the assets acquired, the purchase price allocation is preliminary and could change during the measurement period (not to exceed one year) if new information is obtained about the facts and circumstances that existed as of the Merger date that, if known, would have resulted in the recognition of additional or changes to the value of the assets and liabilities presented in this proforma.
Purchase Price Allocation if DSS is determined to be the accounting acquirer:
In accordance with the accounting treatment of the Merger as a business combination in accordance with the Business Combination Topic of the FASB ASC 805. Under the guidance, the assets and liabilities of the acquired business, Lexington, are recorded at their fair values at the date of acquisition. The excess of the purchase price over the estimated fair values is recorded as goodwill, if any. If the fair value of the assets acquired exceeds the purchase price and the liabilities assumed then a gain on acquisition is recorded. The consideration transferred is measured based on the expected fair value of the DSS common stock, preferred stock and warrant issued by DSS to Lexington. The estimated fair value of the aggregate of 26,850,000 shares of DSS common stock and DSS preferred stock to be issued is $3.12 per share based on the closing price on May 3, 2013. For the purposes of this pro forma estimate, the fair value of the preferred shares is based on their immediate convertibility to DSS common stock. The fair value 4,859,894 warrants to be issued by DSS is estimated to be $6,103,231 using the Black-Scholes-Merton option pricing model. As a result, the total purchase price of approximately $90 million is allocated to the fair value of the assets of Lexington on the date of the Merger. The Company measured the identifiable assets acquired and liabilities assumed based on the acquisition date fair value. While DSS uses its best estimates and assumptions as part of the purchase price allocation process to value, the assets acquired, the purchase price allocation is preliminary and could change during the measurement period (not to exceed one year) if new information is obtained about the facts and circumstances that existed as of the Merger date that, if known, would have resulted in the recognition of additional or changes to the value of the assets and liabilities presented in this proforma.
What has to be considered is what does the price on the date of the "official filing" next week have on these values?
#1. Failure to pass Preferred shares....
Now what effect does this have on number of shares and value? Originally the proposal was to issue 4,859,894 warrants executable at $4.80. Since it did not pass, the following rule applies;
In the event DSS’s stockholders approve the issuance of the merger consideration, but do not approve the authorization of the DSS Preferred Stock, then the holders of Lexington Preferred Stock that satisfy the Beneficial Ownership Condition shall receive warrants to purchase DSS Common Stock with an exercise price of $0.02 per share, which we refer to as the $.02 Warrants. Each $.02 Warrant is exercisable at any time after the date of issuance for a period of ten years. If at any time between the three month anniversary of the issuance date and the expiration date, there is no effective registration statement registering the resale of the shares issuable under the Warrants, then the holder may elect to exercise the Warrants, or a portion thereof, by way of a cashless exercise. Except under certain circumstances, no holder may exercise its Warrants or $.02 Warrants if such exercise would result in such holder beneficially owning in excess of 9.99% of the number of shares of DSS common stock outstanding immediately after giving effect to the issuance of shares of common stock upon exercise of the Warrants. In addition, under certain circumstances, a holder of the $.02 Warrants will be entitled to participate in any distribution of DSS’s assets (or the right to acquire its assets) or any declared cash dividend, to the same extent such holder would have participated therein if such holder had held the shares of common stock acquirable upon complete exercise of the $.02 Warrants.
Vet away....
Full Disclosure...
I am very comfortable with my ability to read financial statements and understanding account data. The prospectus and what we are all trying to determine is what will be the share value after merger. Understand I will put the information out there since I have read all 200 pages of the prospectus carefully. I may need new glasses after this. I think it best that everyone attempt to dissect the information specifically to that post.
CHP,
If only we knew. LOL I am going to go back and revisit the entire prospectus this weekend. There are several things I have discussed with other board members offline that I think I will put out here and see if we can get some consensus opinions. I am sure one factor is that this is the end of the quarter and there are several items that would tend to make me believe that a lot of covering did occur. I don't think any great conspiracy on the MMs part-they gambled and it caught them but they still have till end of June to fix that. As you know, it then begins anew. I have no idea though what they will decide with DSS as it is a hybrid and it will not be as easy to track around just one court case. Let me get my thoughts and information together and I will post here when done.
If you mean the 580K trade it was at 3:47 on 6/20/2013. The same day they had 942K total volume which they have never even been close to that. I do not have the exact time on the 6/19 trade for 10K at 3.025 if that is what you are referring to.