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Fuyi,
This is that GAP to 1.98 that needs to be filled. Will be interesting to see how fast they do it. Finally Volume with buying pressure.
Why Bother?
FUYI
The PVO-STO Pinch is pretty good.
PVO above STO on chart
PVO=Price Volume Oscilator (Standard Set 12,26,9)
STO= Fast Stochastics (20.3)
You'll recognize the pattern fairly quickly.
The pinch tells you that the stock is over bought and interest is waning. Just a thought.
FUYI
I used to use that as the norm. I have used the PVO/STO more often now as I have lost out on some huge gainers at the 20MA. Ever use it?
Wants to break 1.78 let see if we can hit that 1.81. Looks like TA buyer may be arriving.
I had a good teacher!!!
Ring...
On a side note I would call myself a mid-level charter. I have all the concepts/patterns etc down and am now trying to fine tune "my" system for trading. My strengths would be on the FA side and financials of a company. (DD) There are some very experienced traders from a TA stand point and they have actually allowed me to advance my abilities since I have been here. I am fairly certain I will have it wired before the Markman. We need to be careful because highlander will lay the sword if we get too technical! LOL
Ring,
First, TA and any indicator I may have used went out the window for the most part once I realized there was huge selling going on in the background. Since the down trend was not driven by TA or fundamentals it made no sense to even try and get to a base line until stock was flat lined. I use volume more as a confirmation tool more than anything else. I have traded DSS with great success using three indicators:
Chalkin Oscillator: I set mine at 3/8
ROC: Set at 10
20 EMA envelope.
If you wait for the divergences it has been spot on. I will also use the over bought/over sold data as additional line in the sand. The only reason I can SWAG the volume on DSS is I have pretty much been in this for the past two months and it has just been very easy to use basic indicators to predict direction and price. With MMs in control it is very difficult to calculate with accuracy what is actually going on. I made an error at the 2.14 level (Which I knew once they executed the sale on the bid) based on TA thinking we hit bottom but it was too close to support which just crapped right out on selling pressure. Went back for another swipe at 1.68 (one day too soon) but finally hit when the pinch pattern and Fuyi revealed themselves. LOL This just does not fit any parameters I have ever run into. I watched as every TA guy was saying we had Cup&Handle, Inverted H&D, Golden Cross etc.. Sure they were all there but so was the FI waiting to drop millions of shares on the market. Probably not much help but thats what I have been doing here.
Noler,
You are a good man buddy-never any worries here on the beach!
Noler...
I think I have now provided enough info for investors to make a good decision. I believe this is now in the hands of the market. Perhaps you will see me on another thread with the familiar rants soon. I am here and will be watching and as always give opinions when needed. We are in good shape my friend.
Sunday Night Rant....
It is going to be a good week.
BT
Agreed. This thing was a 100% TA dream until just before merger. I expect it to get back over the next week or two as it finds its legs.
Noler,
DSS has a multitude of directions it could take. Back in May when this thing went to 3.65 on no news I realized that this was wrapped very tight. After the recent demolition it is like rebuilding the city from a new perspective.
Catalysts: (Provided dump is over)
1. Cross levels TA charters have identified as entry points.
2. Get day traders in as momentum begins, create the pressure
3. New retailers coming in to join the party.
4. Perhaps some outside buyers for DSS come.
5. News News News
1.98-2.00 will be very similar to 1.68-1.72 IMO. Many charters after two dollars will be looking at the 20 DMA. (Currently 2.19).
All these other IP plays seem to be staggering a bit. Lots of frustration and drawn out events. Just hasn't been good for awhile. DSS appears to be the cleanest and most solid company moving towards Markman. Revenues, Cash, IP purchases forthcoming, the Markman hearing. We have all said it, IF Novell settles it will be huge.
Welllll,
I don't know who Joe is and not sure I trade in any stocks that would be promoted by someone other than a professional IR/PR firm. There is absolutely no mystery as to why DSS is where it is currently at.
1. Large Selling by financial investors. (Confirmed by company) I take my hat off to DSS for even making that public.
2. Merger complete and 16M new shares added to float.
3. They occurred at the same time.
From a technical stand point in any stock, after a large run up or sell off, consolidation must occur. During that consolidation, investors/traders make a decision on which direction they want to go. If more guys want to ascend then we go bullish, if more guys want to go lower we become bears. A lesson I learned over 20 years ago was that 95% of the time it is simple market mechanics that decide what a stock will do. Now if you are in OTC and Pinks then that is a whole other conversation. Until you are on the main exchange there is always a certain level of manipulation.
I stated back last week that the signal would be less than 200K in the first hour and 300-500K total daily volume. I use formulas to determine that and not who is possibly influencing the stock. Yesterday was the first day this occurred. I will always look for a confirmation day to follow up. A TA trader (I include myself) is like an economist; You line up 10 economists and ask them why the market is going down they will give you 10 different answers. The interesting thing about most charters is they all will get to a tight range but all probably used different ways to get there.
Here is my TA prediction:
Consolidation: 1.68-1.72
Breakout-1.73-1.75
Support:1.66
Gaps to fill: 1.74-1.80, 1.81-1.98
Dates..
July 17th Novell Preliminary Claim Construction.
July 19th FB Case Management Meeting
Here is our front man in CA:
http://www.kramerlevin.com/kkastens/
PI
I don't think it will be a bump and if I was a betting man I would bet the new DSS has a PR or two around that just to assert that those numbers are irrelevant. I also believe that between now and Markman, DSS will be viewed as a pure IP play. 3Q numbers and forward will be driven by revenue, acquisitions and ultimately litigation decisions. Now since this was my first actual IP play I surely may be wrong and cooler can lay the smack down if needed, but it appears that way to me. As far as market cap and valuation, the street makes that decision. That changes over time as a company gets bigger but in the short term thats just the way it is. They will eventually "price in" income statement but that won't become clear until 3Q.
Boston,
I don't want to jinx us but as you know the volume in the last two weeks has been 8-9 times higher than the previous two weeks. In the first "1/2" hour we have gone back to traditional numbers. The MMs can't move lower and they are going to have to start moving in order for anyone to get interested.
Thanks...
If I am correct there were probably 5-7M shares that hit the market. There were so many options and warrants I just gave up and decided to take the easy way out and hit the top 4. I too am in a very good and comfortable position and when they start releasing news after this little exercise we should be good to go.
BT,
I still saw some selling behind those buys. Have I just been looking at this thing too long?
Fuyi...
The guys that run this board are pretty good and getting rid of those types. If you are ever fortunate enough (hopefully not on the receiving end!) to see the one known as highlander discussing the finer points of DSS you will thoroughly enjoy that moment. Cooler and Noler are very subtle but they will also lay the smack down. This is a great board to share info and I can assure you, I have learned a ton and I am an old dog at this. LOL
Noler my friend. When you get some time it would be great to start looking at that as we are 57 trading days away from Markman. I am going to take a back seat to you, cooler and highlander in the hopes you guys can now carry the cart forward. If I have to look at one more filing I'll need new glasses. I know that IP has a very special relationship to certain timelines and like the cratering we just went through, it can have the equal and opposite effect going forward.
Yeah-I was hoping my 1.71 would stick. You win LOL. Nice job my friend. There are some nice gaps to fill from 1.71 to 1.99 IMO. I think we are in store for a little grinding initially but there are definite levels that you can see will have little resistance. The only thing will now be to see how nervous investors really are. The psychology of the market will have changed a bit IMO.
Stockpickr
Love the enthusiasm but you might want to relook your sources for investing.
Based on?
Yep-volume this past hour has totally dried up. They are going to have to start moving one way or the other IMO.
There you go FUYI they are hitting 1.71 and beating back but now just need to hold that 1.70.
Fuyi
Looks like EDGX bumped up but keeping very tight. Pounding 1.70 lets see if we can get some buying pressure. You did call this 3 days ago. LOL
Deet
I realize you are a trader. Actually welcome them here. However, why not post something useful other than stating "you" feel TA doesn't work here. I am not sure I am using MB etiquette since this is the first board I have ever posted on but sure seems like guys that pop in and out have their own agenda. There are many "traders" here but the great thing about this board is we have chosen to share information regarding DSS. Since you are an FA trader perhaps you can break those numbers down I supplied reference shares available for exercise and volume differential and let me know how many shares you think have been sold. I am sure my inept 5M number will get you closer.
Fuyi
Keep posting brother. Nice to see someone else getting the hammer. LOL Just so everyone understands my thought..this is not a fundamental play nor will it be for awhile. Talk to me after Markman, 3Q and everything else. I too use TA as a "guide". Thanks again for charts and input. There are some very very smart lurkers here who will input when needed. You are as already been said by cooler, a welcome asset. As long as your trading DSS keep us up to date.
Numbers...
Last week I made a statement that the volume would dictate and tell us when the selling was complete. I think I made a calculation error in the amount that might have been sold. Since we are trading (Up until today) at about 8x's normal volume, my assumption that there was approx 3.4M shares possibly being sold by a financial entity was woefully short. Always remember, I have no idea what is sold and is pure SPECULATION. I always believe somewhere in the numbers is the story:
Hudson Bay: 3.4M (Warrants push them over magical 9.99% non reporting level)
Iroquois: 1,765,690 Post Merger Shares
Frost: 1,737,267 Post Merger Shares
4 Kids Fund 2,478,423 (Alan Honig)
All these shares are immediately available to sell on the market. There has been no registration of these shares and no mention in post merger ownership in prospectus. That is a total of 9,381,380 shares that "could" be sold.
Even if HB held off on its warrants for a bit that would leave 5,981,380 for sale. Based on current trading I would assume there are at least 5M that were sold into the market. Hopefully to steadier hands.
I will try and find the one item I am looking for in current DSS filings. There was an accounting annotation talking about a specific number of options that could be executed at any time. I just don't feel like looking through 300 pages right now. These are very Raw numbers and I am sure someone else can take a step further regarding volume vs potential amount sold. GL
Agreed
Till the reaper moves off the ASK we are stuck.
Cooler
Hopefully we all can bring something to the party. Great board and hopefully you guys can keep it that way.
Come on Pickr, this board is a pretty factual group and some comments by some anonymous poster isn't worth the click I had to engage. LOL
Missed the chart...I got it now very clear. LOL
FUYI
I just meant your indicator regarding bottom of Pinch. I know PPO/ADX are important but as you know that is just a pattern. Many charters (myself included) use varying methods to pick bottom and exits. I use 5/10 EMA to locate what I "hope" is bottom. I set my RSI at 2-5 days for a quicker move. I know many pinch players use varying methods and I was just curious as to what you are utilizing. I am always open to new ideas and like to kick the tires when available.
5 Day EMA 1.71
FUYI
I use 5/10 Day EMA what are indicators you use for bottom?
Fuyi-Been on it. I love my TA. Thanks