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Does anybody have the numbers of the MOR released yesterday?
Somebody wanted their 200,000 so bad that they couldn't wait til it became available for .0011.
We're talking about triflingly small amounts of money in terms of volume traded, but we do seem to have reestablished that .001 base. Any trades at .0009 were really small amounts. I saw one for 500 shares. That's 45 cents!
That's see if that SOB CEO of ours will put in a good word for us in court and try to "salvage some shareholder value" or whatever he said.
I wonder how much skinny water they've sold since last June.
Ask at $1.45 after hours according to Investors Hub. I realize this means little to nothing, but it's still cool to look at.
The Fed didn't say anything scary from where I'm standing. More cheap money to heal the housing industry with each passing month.
I haven't seen a spread that wide since the buffet table at Oscar Mayer's company picnic.
Currently 6.5% but I've seen it as high as 9.2%.
Perhaps the hands holding shares right now aren't as loose as some of us fear. Just a dearth of buyers at the moment. We'll just have to wait for the next economic or court related news for movement.
It's not insignificant that the creditors are getting $200 million cash up front. It's one of the big things differentiating us from Ambac. In that deal, the creditors got all their loans paid back in stock, no cash.
I'm pretty sure this was Ambac's final POR:
http://www.morrisanderson.com/resource-center/entry/FORM-8-K-AMBAC-FINANCIAL-GROUP-FILES-CURRENT-REPORT/
That fact that our creditors are getting $200 million of their $700 million in cash might mean we get a pretty nice slice of this company.
Note that in Ambac's POR it explicitly states what will happen to common stock, as opposed to PMI's POR which conspicuously makes no mention of the specific phrase "Common Stock."
Reading the latest operating statistics for Radian and MTG. Check out these latest numbers from MTG:
Plus: new notices
8592
Less: cures
8294
Less: paids
3046
Less: rescissions and denials
145
The number or loans they are paying out on dropped considerably.
I'm guessing that since PMI hasn't written any new policies since 2011, they have even fewer new notices than MTG. Granted, they don't have all the new business MTG has written.
I wonder how many delinquent loans they're paying out on these days.....
Interesting trading today. Typical MMs taking advantage of the lack of bids to walk the price down and set off stop-loss trades for all those people who bought over .09.
Not too much to worry about.
A buying opportunity? Tough to say. Certainly holding gains better than it did the last two times is ran. Will they eventually pull this one back down to .03, or are we past the point of no return on our trip back to .25 and beyond?
It's interesting to me that the bonds at only trading at about .28 cents on the dollar. Do these creditors really think their only gonna get 28% of the $750 million they loaned PMI back? That's about $210 million dollars. That's less than what we got from the Arch deal, let alone any other assets.
It seems to me like there's something funny going on over there.
PPMIQ is an excellent buyout candidate.
Do you have any real DD that says "common shares cancelled"?
Do you have any real DD that says their liabilities are larger than their assets? I haven't seen it.
I see $300 possibly $350 million from Arch. I see $295 million in tax assets. Anything of any value left over after that could easily put them over what they owe the creditors. Better yet, someone else with some money comes in and takes care of the creditors and for a cheap price gets a huge piece of a now reorganized and reinvigorated MI company in a hot market, with enough left over for those buying at .09 to be very happy.
Is this a profitable company now? MTG and RDN haven't quite gotten there, yet have appear to have avoided bankruptcy. But bankrupt Ambac returned to profitability just before their shares were cancelled and new ones reissued to creditors. In Ambac's case, the fate of commons was spelled out clearly for a long time.
If we've turned profitable before our commons fate is sealed, that would be huge.
Looks like someone found another $100 million in the company these past few weeks.
Page 85 of the amended POR states the following
"As of December 31, 2011 the Consolidated Group had access to, for federal income tax purposes, NOL's of approximately $2.2 billion and income tax credits (the "tax credits" and together with the and NOL's and other "tax attributes") of approximately (195)$295 million"
The original number of 195 is crossed out and replaced with $295 million.
Anyone with any comments about the court documents released yesterday? Seems like there were quite a few changes to the POR.
From what I gather, the court meeting Friday was the last chance for Freddie and Fannie to object to the deal with Arch? I might be a bit off base with that. I would imagine they have a right to object to that ideal.
I can't tell if its good for them to object or not. Penknife from the Yahoo board seems to think we got screwed on the deal. The 2009-2011 book is probably projected to be pretty profitable at this point. Perhaps more than they gave us.
If it's a bad deal for us, and the only reason it was made was to take care of a certain class of creditors, then I hope it gets rejected. On the other hand, if the money we get from the deal is enough to keep equity in the game and leaves us with enough infrastructure to run a company, then I'm for it.
Why do I get the feeling something way bigger than Arch and the Frannie/Freddie objection is looming just beyond the horizon?
Anybody know what happened in court?
Any thoughts on the deal in February?
I'll be there at 9:30 Monday morning with everyone, expecting/hoping to see two 500 share trades for .075 at 9:30 sharp, then buys all day in the double digits.
I'll be putting in a small order at .065 and a slightly larger one at .035 until the end of the day Friday.
I get the sense there are a few people who regret not buying in the .03s the last two times we were there, and there'll be big bids waiting there if we should happen to fall that far.
All in all, I still believe in the fundamentals of the stock.
I realize that it might not be obvious when looking at the declared assets and debts of the company, but there's lots of value hidden, like Easter eggs, in the equity side.
That combined with the fact nowhere in the POR does it say something such as "common stock cancelled," or anything like it. It is generally explicitly stated.
We're still a bit in the dark, but I like our chances.
Check that. I was write the first time. Too much excitement this morning to edit my posts!
Whoops I mean bid below ask. I see .2297 bid and .229 ask.
Great day today!
At the moment though, the ask is below bid. Funny business.
That would be great need 1geb. Any confirmation or further spread of that merger rumor would blow my .06 bid out of the water!
.0675 sounds like a smart and safe price to make a bid at. With all the crazy gyrations we've seen from this stock since February, and all the manipulation before that, I wouldn't be surprised if some daring bidders holding out until about .055 get their shares filled.
I'll probably try to pick up a few on the dip at around .06. There's definitely a chance it'll never fall that low. I can live with that. This could be the beginning of the big run we've all been waiting for.
Clearly, some big investors want in on undervalued insurance companies. I get the feeling they would rather make a deal with equity, so that they can keep the NOLS, etc., than to deal with bond holders who have much more leverage.
TGIC very encouraging. Let's move up past a dime a share and stay there!
Highly speculative hypothetical warning!!
I wonder how possible it would be for PMI to able to raise $550 million in new debt, just as NMI was able to do earlier this year. That might seem like a Herculean task for a bankrupt insurance company with a $5.2 million market cap and lots of sour mortgages still on the books.
But comparable sized mortgage insurance companies such as Radian and MGIC are currently valued at over $2 billion. Granted, they've been writing some attractive policies these past few years while PMI has languished in bankruptcy.
PMI, with $750 million in debt possibly wiped clean and converted to equity and the NOLS and insurance licensing(ready o write policies right away)and such, might be worthy of a $1 billion dollar cap. That'd leave some left over for us and be the kind of company worthy of selling new bonds.
Not saying this is the likely outcome, but how feasible does something like this sound?
Well Mr. Cadillac, you seem to know everything. So, What's Trim going to do when they get their hands on Skinny's intellectual property? Why do they want it so bad? Is it actually worth anything, in your opinion?
Was this week's big hearing cancelled? Now that they've released a POR, is the only true hard deadline now mid july?
Would anyone mind posting L2 info? I would greatly appreciate it. I'm just a little curious what's behind that 247,600 at .038.
I agree. I was hoping to get a serious comment from you, Kezzek, on the filing. Seems to be pretty blunt about "protecting shareholders" as opposed to a potential 'common shares cancelled' type statement.
I realize in the unregulated pinky world you don't have to be as precise in your preliminary filings, but nevertheless it was interesting wording.
Perhaps the Jim Croces and Russell Simmons of the world still have some options left they wanted sell and they got themselves a lawyer. If that were true, it would still be a question whether we're along for the ride.
Kezzek, you've been right about the price direction thus far, and your reasoning and understanding of this market seem to be pretty sound. Would you agree that the wording of this particular document is a little strange?
Yes I didn't find 3.8 too inspiring either. Isn't that us? And doesn't that mean we're screwed? I'll admit the part about the corporation remaining in existence and the part in 5.4 about keeping the NOLS have me intrigued...
Tough day for commodities all around, especially metals. Hopefully they don't fall further tomorrow and there's no black swan for Niobf...
It's always possible that the people who screwed the company over (The CEO and Trim Capital) have been trying to figure out some way to throw the stockholders a bone in order to placate them enough to limit shareholder lawsuits. That would explain that long negotiating period with no resolution. These people want to make sure they get their money before anyone else.
They might actually have figured out a way to become profitable recently, given the Cott deal and other factors. For example, they appear to have stopped distributing to CVS. Maybe, CVS was a big money-losing operation for the company, but they figured it was a good way to promote their product across the entire country. Now, it appears they're only selling on Amazon and fresh direct.com. It looks like some high-volume (A&P, Shop Rite and Foodtown in New Jersey)supermarkets are also still carrying it. These places have all been well stocked with 5 flavors in the past month or so, and they are within 60 miles of Skinny's alleged
corporate headquarters in Conshohocken Pa.
Maybe Target and CVS were great nationwide promotional tools for the company, but cost a lot of money. That gave them a nationwide footprint, which they can now exploit with Amazon.com. Perhaps local supermarkets that can take big orders are the only orders they can service right now because they appear to have screwed over a bunch a delivery guys and middle men and stuff(per a few angry Facebook posts)
They also spent a lot of money when they had were going in debt doing promotional events every weekend and having bloggers review it everyday. Maybe now that they built up a big enough following, they could cut supplies to places like CVS and Target and stop doing all promoting and they're able to make a profit off these limited operations to a much wider audience than they had two years ago.
It's also possible that they've gone off the radar because of some sort of nondisclosure agreement with Trim Capital.
Investors in these OTC stocks don't usually have a strong legal ground to stand on when they want to sue the company, But I think it seems pretty clear to me that Trim Capital was negotiating in bad faith when they signed the initial deal in July. From the actions of the other board members, the CEO might not have ha our best interests at heart either. They never had any intention of completing the full $15 million of the contract, or anywhere near that amount. Again, I'm not saying that the shareholders would win a case against them easily, or at all. But if the product becomes profitable for them after they steal it from us, they might want to throw us a few pennies per-share to shut us up, rather than a costly court case they where might be found liable to a certain extent.
I'm pretty encouraged that there hasn't been a major sell-off from this news. The hasn't yet been anything like the ABKFQ sell-off on Friday. This news is frightening, but for all we know it's actually good news. Maybe the investors had been trying to buy into the company on the cheap and our guys were holding out for something better. When it became apparent from recent housing numbers that PMI was going to get a better price, the new investors' offer became unrealistically low and they withdrew it. This theory may be bit overly optimistic, but isn't it possible?
Anyone think we might be getting some negative coattails from Ambac? They had that huge run-up based on improved fundamentals in the company, despite the fact that they had already stated their common stock would be canceled. Right now it's dropping like a stone because the company released a PR reconfirming the fact that they're canceling the commons. Our company, on the other hand, has yet to state publicly what the future intentions for its common stock are.
Still seeing a lot of manipulation out there, but it looks to be working in tandem with all the fear created because the AMBAC filing last night.
Fundamental improvements in the company's condition want to send the stock to $6.00 and technicals want to take it to $3.50. They're battling it out before our eyes. Still a good time to buy long at these prices, but I don't blame people for wanting to time a better entry.
Whoops. The court hearing was actually for tomorrow, but I'm pretty sure it has been canceled.
Looks like some new court documents were posted in the past few hours. None of it looks bad for the common stockholder, but it Looks like the court meeting for today has been canceled. Hopefully that doesn't take any upward pressure off the stock. Who knows, there may even be something in there that I missed that could send us the moon!
Tough to call a bottom here. I sold for $4.70 the shares I bought during the August scare and then watched the price rise 30% over the next 24 hours. Patiently waited (don't chase it) and now I'm looking to get back in around 4. The new shares and bonds give this company a great chance to thrive, but it might take a little while longer for the price to fully represent it.
Is it possible that PMI bond and stock prices(while both rising modestly in the past year) have been kept down because if there are too few Pre-BK bond/share holders it would trigger a loss of NOLs and such?
Sometimes stuff like that happens to preserve Tax losses for those who actually earned them instead of giving the benefits to speculative bond purchasers.
If the price rose too much before the deals were signed, too many original bond holders might want to sell.
That would explain why there has been so much downward manipulation the past 17 months.
The higher ups at EK saw this coming years ago, and made sure to declare bankruptcy early enough so that there would be a piece left over for equity holders after restructuring. Why else would they make such a foolish share repurchase years back? It was one of many poison pills and shareholder Easter eggs they left for themselves on the way down.
Commons survive!