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I agree with that sentiment but he still has poor information on this investment. Clueless imo.
Beware
Thank you for your service as well! I will thank my local police more often as well.
Probably
You may as well join Carlos with 1000
Is it possible? Sure
Is it a huge long shot? Like 500/1? I think so
The SPS and warrants can be converted
Anyone who doesn’t understand that is delusional if they have researched this.
Not a recco
Does it pay 400 million for one dollar or nah?
So far, yes.
Please stop. Please read Professor Epstein’s article in summer of 2021 after SCOTUS loss.
They said that a conservator doesn’t need to conserve
That is the end of the HERA arguments
Let’s focus on contracts and contract law. That is all that matters currently
It’s all a loss until it’s a win. If we win
I like a jury trial
It suits me
Me too
On 8/17/12, I bought 30,000 FMCCT @ 1.15
August 16, 2012
FNMA about 30 cents
FMCCS about 3.30
Capital extraction for pet projects is foreclosed on at this point.
They can use levers in the GSE’s for giveaways but that’s not as targeted and more difficult to abscond.
They’re indicating zero propensity for release anytime soon
Not a recco
Because it’s a contract and the government had 18 months after taking them over to repudiate any contracts they wanted
They repudiated none
The SCOTUS opinion was on a conservator not conserving. They said that the conservator could burn 300 billion dollars of GSE’s capital in a massive bonfire if it wants
But it can’t ignore contracts or not pay for canceling them.
Taking all earnings and assets into perpetuity is a de facto cancellation.
Not a recco
Only JPS? Lolz
No. That appeared to be sells after ROP loss on FNMAJ
Towel throwing
Not a recco
Yes
Problem with this is the Supreme Court upheld the Net Worth Sweep
See Epstein’s article after the loss
Yup
FHFA had 18 months to repudiate the preferred contracts
They didn’t
The light bill is due
Eh
Maybe
Even in a “win” scenario, it’s a contract and the damages will likely flow from the GSE’s coffers, not TSY/FHFA
Okay. On the board this morning are attacks on Tim P and Glen. But cool.
I don’t care. Say whatever you want
It’s going to happen however it does irrespective of opinions
Why do my reasons matter to you? In general, common holders attack preferred holders for their views of the “common thesis”
Why do you think a fifty cent stock is worth xyz price? That’s all that matters to your family.
I’m not looking for validation from you.
Common speculation is fine but would not be putting more than 1/2%. It’s poor risk management
Good luck
While that’s true, the odds of common going to even 10
are the long shot of long shots.
Not a recco
I’d have to see what the awards are and how the jury rules to make an assessment on that.
If you believe that in a win or loss scenario that common shares can’t be diluted by both SPS and warrants, you might need to reevaluate this.
Not a recco
No. I don’t think so. Not sure how you rip on these people in one post but wondering what they are doing in the next.
Yeah, interesting take on “buying commons”
Nats-
This has already been to the appeals court. This is on remand from the appeals court for trial. Sure, it’s going to be appealed but it will take 12/18 months most likely. The appeals court already heard the case.
Freddie Bagholder-
Reflection is difficult to comprehend but it’s a psychological construct that makes sense quite often in life.
None of us knows exactly what will happen but pretending that common have no downside has been a complete disaster in this situation.
Cognitive dissonance says that no matter what odds there are, some people will believe in a thing even if it should not be believed.
The link means nothing of the sort. If you have been in this investment for longer than 3 months and don’t understand it, I suggest you stop investing.
Good luck, “Mr. Dangerfield”.
That’s why they make a market, I suppose.
Good luck with your purchase.
Not a recco
Well, you are not going to like my “fully diluted common price” posted a minute ago. Risk management is important, here.
One thing I didn’t do at 15-20 on 50 dollar JPS was take some off. If we win the jury trial, I will take some off.
I think the chances are over 65% based off the history of contract disputes in jury trials. 2/3 of the time, plaintiffs win.(in my research of civil contract claims)
Not a recco
Eh. We’ll see. The preferred price is not predicting a victory. I think that preferred will win but it’s a 10x move to par.
The common is priced at 5x the fully diluted share count if SPS, JPS are converted and warrants are exercised. (10/12 cents is probably fair value if everything bad happens)
It would drive down prices. The government doesn’t seem to care about anything but extraction of actual cash.
So I would consider that math before investing.
Not a recco
See, everything is made so complicated. It’s as simple as this.
Would any reasonable shareholder think that the government would take their property for nothing? That one part of the government would hand over 100% of the GSE’s profits into perpetuity? That the contracts you own are a claim on nothing?
That’s the question. Either they are valid and enforceable or the government can do anything to a private corporation and pay nothing.
As Richard Epstein said, if two private parties did what these government actors did….. They would face prison time.
Mario Ugoletti, too. Perjury after theft.
Especially in light of “the golden age of profitability” and Susan McFarland testified that she told the treasury department that 50 billion in deferred tax assets were coming back onto the books.(8 days before the sweep)
If common shareholders should not be expected to be wiped out, why would preferred? If preferred are not wiped and common are not, preferred are worth par.
There is no “debt”. What the government owns is equity like JPS. (Or you can call it “hybrid”).
Anyway, it’s like the light bill. You either owe it or you don’t.
Not a recco
Yeah Lenny, you’re going to be “rich”
That’s unlikely
I was wrong and apologize
I misread your post
Sure. Nobody else thought this after Calabria firing and then appeared on Kudlow.
You are the only one
Not the half dozen billionaires
Do you want to amend your statement? Please find one post where I said it was happening with Biden
The plan is so secret that nobody (including the person who wrote it) has ever seen it.
So secret that Victoria never revealed anything.
Is it grasping at straws that the Eaton case (in the 1890’s according to D Thompson) said that after 9 months, the director needed to be senate confirmed?
Okay. Show me one property rights/contract case that the government settled for 10/20/30 billion.
Maybe there are some
My research said it will not happen…. but past performance and stuff…..
Not a recco
Well, good luck.
Yup. Read his article about SCOTUS screwing shareholders, next.
Good luck
Not a recco