Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
With some help from Jim at Niocorp, here is what I come up with. This is all based on the PEA from October 2015.
So as I said, Niocorp will have positive cash flow even if all they sold was Ferroniobium.
The total operating expenses for Niocorp over the 32 years of the mine is approximately US $ 6.1 Billion.(found on page 269 of the PEA) This means expenses for all 3, Ferroniobium, Scandium Trioxide and Titanium Dioxide.
Total revenue from Ferroniobium -alone- is: approximately US $ 6.8 Billion (page 275 of PEA) You can get this number from taking 4,868,185 kilograms of Niobium produced on average per year and multiply that by the 32 years of mine life, multiplied by 43.55 per kg. ($43.55 per kg is the PEA's assumed average FeNB price over the life of the mine.)
.7 Billion positive cash flow over the life of the mine for the Niobium alone.
Something to think about:
Even if Niocorp didn't sell the Scandium and Titanium, they could reduce OPEX by not producing them. This would add even more to the positive cash flow estimate. Choosing to not produce Scandium or Titanium before construction of the plant would bring significant CAPEX savings.
However, management is highly confident that they will be able to sell all 3 products at very good prices.
The per year revenue break down for all 3 is as follows:
Scandium: 378 million per year - 59%
Niobium: 213 million per year - 33%
Titanium: 50 million per year - 8%
So with the mine being profitable on the Niobium alone, add to that the other 2 products and you have incredible cash flow.
I don't understand why you keep saying that. Based on the assumptions in PEA2, Elk Creek will be cash-flow positive even without any sales of scandium. One can derive the relative revenue contributions of Nb, Sc, and Ti from the Elk Creek Project by multiplying the planned production of each product by the assumed prices presented. An OPEX estimate also is provided. If one subtracts all scandium revenue from the equation, it still leaves a healthy cash-flow positive situation, all other things being equal.
Thanks for the clarification Jim!
Agreed
Great post, I agree.
NioCorp Names Neal Shah as Chief Financial Officer
CENTENNIAL, Colo. (July 1, 2016) –NioCorp Developments Ltd. (“NioCorp” or the “Company”) (TSX: NB; OTCQX: NIOBF; and FSE: BR3) announces that, effective today, it is has named Neal Shah as the Company’s Chief Financial Officer (“CFO”).
Mr. Shah has served as NioCorp’s Interim CFO since April 2015. Prior to that, he was NioCorp’s Vice President of Finance since joining the Company in September 2014. Mr. Shah brings an extensive background in corporate finance, treasury, financial planning and analysis, strategic planning, and risk management.
“Neal has done an outstanding job for NioCorp and for our shareholders over the past two years, and has built a great team while serving as an invaluable member of our senior leadership,” said Executive Chairman and CEO Mark A. Smith. “He has an unshakeable dedication to bringing our Elk Creek Superalloy Materials Project to commercial reality as soon as possible, and we all look forward to continuing to work with him toward that very exciting goal.”
Mr. Neal is a graduate of the University of Colorado at Boulder's Mechanical Engineering program (BSME) and Purdue University's Krannert School of Management (MBA). With nearly 20 years of experience in various industries as diverse as high-tech to rare earths, his recent experience includes the positions of Senior Manager of Corporate Development and M&A and more recently the Director of Strategy and Business Planning at Molycorp's corporate offices in Greenwood Village, CO. Previously, he was with Intel for six years, most recently as a Finance Manager in the high-growth wireless business group. Neal brings a wealth of corporate expertise having also worked at IBM, Boeing, and Covidien.
On Behalf of the Board of Directors:
"Mark Smith”
Mark Smith, Executive Chairman, CEO and Director
You are right Todd, I agree.
You are right! It always seems like, as soon as something is discussed here and everyone understands, then a few weeks later here we go again with people getting the facts wrong and creating confusion.
Great points Landmark and Todd, we are on the same page.
We won't know until it happens, until then it's all speculation and making up numbers.
Hmm who do I trust, Mark Smith who has done this before and his elite team, or some random idiot on a message board....
Thanks! Will do
Agreed
Kaiser should stick to what he knows, because it sure as hell isn't politics...
Agreed
The offtakes have come in record time. Offtakes before the bfs? Almost never happens, and here it has. Everything else in your post has been covered here over and over and over again.....
Looking forward to it!
That's not what it said. Walterc already clarified this in his recent post. Target price is what the price should be today. They are Estimating the cash flow from 2019. That's not saying that is what the share price will be then. Read it again carefully.
I think some sort of deal was struck in the end though.
I argued with him many times, actually every time about his numbers he pulled from thin air.
I come here for info on Niocorp, not cradle. Go make a cradle board for that.
Please be clear that you are not talking about Niocorp when you say that. Some people might get the wrong idea..
Great Post.
Thanks Jim!
Excellent post! I especially liked Fact #4
Exactly.
Can you post the number to Peter's work? Maybe I should call as well, this is getting ridiculous and I'm tired of reading these pitiful attempts by Peter to gain clients by spreading his BS. Others that are fed up should call as well, he has far overreached his boundaries. His motives are obvious, they have been for a long time.
Agreed, it looks like it.
Details Released on NioCorp's Proposed Early Exercise of Warrants
CENTENNIAL, Colo. (April 20, 2016) – NioCorp Developments Ltd. (“NioCorp” or the “Company”) (TSX: NB; OTCQX: NIOBF; and FSE: BR3) announces that details on its proposed early warrant exercise program are now available via an information circular and related proxy and voting forms, available on SEDAR and summarized below.
NioCorp's proposed early warrant exercise program (the “Program”) is designed to encourage the early exercise of (unlisted) share purchase warrants exercisable at $0.65 that otherwise expire on November 10, 2016 (the “November 2016 Warrants”). An estimated 11,250,256 share purchase warrants are available to be exercised during the Incentive Period under the Program.
Proceeds from the Program will be available to fund the Company’s ongoing work to complete its Elk Creek Superalloy Materials Project Feasibility Study and to fund future planned capital growth expenditures.
The Program and its commencement are subject to disinterested shareholder approval, which will be sought at a Special Meeting of Shareholders to be held on Tuesday May 17, 2016 at 10 a.m. Mountain, as well as final Toronto Stock Exchange (“TSX”) approval.
Full details of the program are available here. The following is a summary of the Program highlights:
Who Can Vote on the Proposal:
Shareholders of the Company who do not hold the November 2016 Warrants are eligible to vote on the Program.
Company insiders who are shareholders and who hold the November 2016 Warrants are allowed to vote on the Program, although they cannot participate in the Program.
Shareholders who hold only warrants with expiry dates other than November 10, 2016 are permitted to vote on the Program.
All shareholders and holders of November 2016 Warrants may attend the Special Meeting, but holders of November 2016 Warrants will not be permitted to vote in person at the Special Meeting.
Who Can Participate in the Program
All holders of the November 2016 Warrants who are not insiders are allowed to participate in the Program.
If a holder of the November 2016 Warrants does not exercise during the 30 day period of the Program, the November 2016 Warrants continue to be exercisable until November 10, 2016 at $0.65.
Incentives Shares
The inducement to exercise early will be provided in the form of incentive shares of the Company (the “Incentive Shares”). The ultimate determination as to the total number of Incentive Shares (or fraction of Incentive Share per November 2016 Warrant) to be issued on the early exercise of the November 2016 Warrants during the 30 day incentive period will be made based on the Market Price of the Company’s common shares on the TSX immediately before the start of the incentive period. The information circular contains models for the issuance of Incentive Shares, which are set out in tables seen here.
NioCorp has engaged Mackie Research Capital Corporation to provide services in connection with the Program, including financial advice and analysis and solicitation of the holders of the November 2016 Warrants to participate in the Program.
This release does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy of any of NioCorp’s securities in the United States. The securities described herein have not been, and will not be, registered under the United States Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the "U.S. Securities Act"), or any state securities laws, and may not be offered or sold within the United States or to, or for the benefit of, U.S. persons (as defined in Regulation S under the U.S. Securities Act) except in compliance with the registration requirements of the U.S. Securities Act and applicable state securities laws or pursuant to exemptions therefrom.
"Mark Smith”
Mark Smith
Executive Chairman, CEO and Director
Well said! I agree.
Different companies, different situations. Apples and oranges.
Great post, excellent explanation! Thanks for sharing.
If I remember correctly, cost of NB is $6.50 per kg.
Thanks Stark! It was much needed.
If you can not see how huge this is, there is something seriously wrong with you. You do not understand the positive impact that this will have.
Fair enough, I agree with that.
You don't take Mark at his word?
Agreed!
Why would Mark even mention dividends if the plan was to get bought out? He has stated many times he wants to see this in production.
Agreed. Mark is passionate about bringing this mine into production. He has said so many times.