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This month meaning Feb. We are in january right now.
Almost here is what I meant.
410 is here. Any takers for 420?
4200 is likely at this point. Bullish divergence on the one yr weekly chart.
SPX 1 yr weekly chart is showing a positive divergence. MACD about to go over the zero line. Fed comments could ignite a rally to 4300.
David Hunter of Contrarian Macro Advisors calling for spx 6000 this year.
No one cares about intel anymore
I would agree. The vix bottoming process is not complete.
Closed a tad above the downtrend line. More upside possible.
going past 4035 by week's end. maybe even 4100. Rally into the fed meeting. Then a 10% drop.
What is your upside target. I am thinking 4000 - 4030.
Market going up because they have already decided to increase the debt limit ceiling. Printing to continue. All is good.
It could very well be about the fed decreasing the balance sheet. Currently they have about 8.5 Trillion on the BS. It got reduced by about 500 billion last year. This year, starting in January, the fed was going to start reducing by 95 billion per month or approximately 1.140 trillion in 2023. Still leaving us near the 7.5 trillion mark at the end of the year. We were at the 4.5 trillion level pre covid in 2020.
My point is that their balance sheet reduction efforts is a trickle compared to the way in which it was added. At this rate it will take until the end of 2026 to bring it back down to the pre pandemic levels. That is if they go that far. They may chicken out at the end of this year and come up with some lame excuse to stop or reduce the rate of reduction.
I would like to see them doubling their efforts in 2024 to 190 billion per month with a target of 5.5 billion by the end of 2024 and continuing in that manner till they reach 2.5 trillion.
We are hooked on easy money.
VIX could go lower to the mid teens. It has done so in the past. Rally has the potential to continue towards the very end of January and even possibly first half of February. 4050 is my target towards the end of January. $4200 spx cannot be ruled out.
Bank earnings are not expected to be good. VIX is below 19. A reversal in the SPX could happen any day.
If bad news is good news then we could blow past 4100
Everything is fed induced. New higs and lows. QE and we have a rally, QT and we go down.
No such thing as fundamentals anymore.
The one thing that is behind the scenes and not getting any attention is the fed balance sheet. That is responsible for propping up the mkts as well. The fed is supposed to reduce its balance sheet this year by one trillion. Which will bring it to about 7.5 trillion. Still extremely extremly high, compared to 2019. If they take the balance sheet to pre pandemic levels about 4 trillion. America will stop functioning. As in freeze. But that is what is required.
They will increase by 50 basis points and maintain their target which will then be only 25 bps. Meaning no further hikes for the rest of the year so as to allow a good bit of data to come in. Remember, as of right now the job market is red hot by all accounts.
They will not say they will consider lowering rates this year. The rates are already very low. Should be near 10%.
Consumer confidence will be better than expectations. Home sales will be lower but still beat expectations.
Result: we push towards 390 this week.
Not a bad close. Should get above 406 in the next few trading days. Very high chance of a santa rally to possibly 4200. JP just told everyone that he is only 75 basis points away from his target. 25 basis point increases from this point forward.
with vix ready to go below 19. Not sure if we can rally the rest of the year.
While some of your predicition have been correct. Have to disagree with this one.
EU sanctions will have no effect on Russia. This is just sabre rattling. Russia has strong alliances with China and India. Their relationships with long term U.S. partner, Saudia Arabia is begining to take hold. Russia will find a way around this and they probably already have.
The EU is about to pay a heavy price for siding with Uncle Sam.
Oil headed to the 60 - 65, in the next two months.
SPX also headed lower by all technical analysis. But the fed can keep it afloat for a while longer.
Next week we should see 4150, even if on an intraday basis. A couple more closes above the 200 ma could initiate short covering. While everything is saying over bought. Mkts can continue overbought as we have seen in the past.
A close above 297 for the Q's, will trigger new upside targets.
For the first time this year we pierced above this down trend line. While the technicals are indicating overbought. We should continue to move higher thru December. Picking 4150 as an initial target.
yup. This time the downtrend line gets taken out. possibility of gap close at 4219 is there, after a few days of consolidation at these levels. It might get there right around Christmas.
Seasonality trend says bullish. However, higher rates will definitely pull this down eventually. Trip to 3000 just hit a detour. Better shorting opportunity awaits. The fed statement is quite hawkish. They merely lowered the hike increments, but may have raised their target. Possibly to 5.25%. If one can get 5% in fixed rate investment (CD) why bother with stocks.
Rearrangement of the world order means that the $ is being discarded. Uncle Sam can no longer keep nations in line with threats and warnings.
Fed Minutes Wednesday?
What will act as resistance the 200 ma sitting at about 4060 or the descending trendline from January, sitting at about 4097.
Your forecast seems quite good as well. What is your projection for the close today and tomorrow.
you are right on the dot so far as far as the downside cleaning. Are we headed now to 4045 in the next couple of days.
The next critical point is the 200 ma. Sitting at about 4080. I think we will get there.
100 % fake.
Based on your charts. What is your target for this rally. I am thinking 4100 at least.
Seems like he posted that chart yesterday.
You are right on the dot.
Did you just find out that everything is rigged? Its been rigged since day 1.
They also increase operating expenses, since a lot of major companies operate with multi million dollar lines of credit for normal operations. To lower operating costs and maintain profit margins, companies will usually cut the staff. These days a lot of big corporations have a bloated payroll of employees, contractors and consultants who do nothing. Layoffs will cause a recession. I can see SPX near 2400 next year.
That is not a surprise. What did they say for future path.
what is causing this rise just before the announcement. Did something get leaked out .
might even go to 420 to close that gap