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My understanding is that you and boston are not discussing bulk materials.
(This was re-posted with minor revisions; original post #14420)
Transferring more money to my brokerage account today for another buy (under $2). I understand how financing works: creating shareholders but the potential is just so hard to resist at this market cap. It seems worth the risk to me and it won't wipe me out either way.. short or long term I am convinced that AMDA is going to be a winner.
OMID
I agree with you that it sure smells like poop but I'm holding on with iron checks. This is a deep value play and is worth the risk with my $4k shares and 4k warrants.
OMID
Just to be clear: I created a download link for the maxim report. It was in my last post which you cited. Plenty of other nice comments in their report.
Also, I for one have not lost sight. I've doubled down under $2 so far. If S-1 is for real I'll probably double down again.
OMID
It is flabbergasting to see the shit being pulled here and now. I cannot argue against your assertion that Sonny has no concern for shareholders.
In fact, I believe everyone has overlooked the fact that Sonny himself has warrants which are now convertible at the lowest ever market value of the company. Golden parachute is not enough I guess.
I'm looking forward to the conclusion of the AMDA saga. Perhaps we will discover more details later which can justify the current action but I highly doubt it is anything other than greed.
OMID
Yes, it is very peculiar that the company would clear all the hurdles at a high resource cost in an effort to meet the listing requirements only to then fail to hold an annual meeting.
It does not add up.
OMID
Lmao.. we hadn't considered the quantity of periods and commas yet but thanks for pointing that out. I'm sure that's only one of many billable items AMDA had to pay the Zimmer auditors.
Knew you would eventually come full-circle. I think I will die of laughter during my personal, secret review of the historical nay-sayer posts when the merger finally happens. Welcome aboard, mate.
OMID
Yes, dp, I am with you completely.
I myself haven't loaded more here in the low 2s for that exact reason.
OMID
Actually, this slipped my mind earlier: based on the fact that anyone who owns a share will receive 1 subscription right per share owned. And given that the company seems pretty set on issuing only 10K units for $10M proceeds (minus fees), I don't expect to see overallotment happening.
It will be more of a prorata shuffling of the units. Anyone who has 10K shares can request all 10K units.
We will see if any of these details change in the revised filing
Great article, been digging into the details here lately.
Good afternoon, dp. I am only able to offer a few poorly organized thoughts on the subscription rights at the moment. I will take a closer look once further details are provided by the company.
For the time-being, without all the information available: it is difficult to deduce the true nature of this offering. As someone who believes in the tech and can see how it would be valuable for Zimmer and society in general, I have to wonder if this is going to one of Sonny's last actions as the CEO. A final opportunity for Sonny to reward himself, his team, and the savvy bulls - all longs with with deep enough pockets to take advantage of what must be discounted ownership. What we do know, is that this money will be used to settle debts with the newest financiers - could they be getting kicked off the party bus?
An interesting item is that there is no standby purchase agreement. Should we assume that the discount will be significant?
This ties into my concern that the public perception of this offering may result in reduced demand for the common stock, which has been reflected in the share price; however, one thing that many are likely overlooking is how small this offering really is. Over-allotments may really be more of a technical term for redistribution of a very limited amount of unexercised subscription rights.
OMID
I am not worried at all here (yet); I do not expect to be concerned in the future.
To be clear, this is coming from someone who often says: "It is against my religion to hold something that I think is going down [in $-value]". Trust me, I do not mean to imply that the dollar is a stronghold for storing wealth - on the contrary. But I am dead-serious about AMDA and I'm prepared to take a 100% loss if I am entirely wrong.
I have seen very little in terms of meaningful arguments that challenge you, Boston, or CL. Surprisingly, this is certainly not for a lack of effort from your counterparts. For instance: one of the key attempts to discredit the bulls here is the fact that they bought and it has since gone down - this represents a fleeting opportunity for the bears to declare victory; however, they know the reason is due to the nature of the situation: if/when merger is announced - and it can happen at any moment - there will be no opportunity to buy in.
Anyway, and before I digress further: it is an understatement for anyone to say that the value proposition of investing long in the company is tremendous. I have recently reviewed many companies in a particularly hot market sector in order to present a case on which I (very conservatively) based the valuation of my own company in a pitch to investors.
Here are a couple examples for everyone's entertainment which may serve to better illustrate how preposterous the current AMDA valuation truly is:
Company A: $600K, cash on hand; $600K, gross revenue; $400K, gross profit; -$4.6M, net income; $70M, market cap. Trades at 155x revenue and will absolutely without a shadow of a doubt have to raise significant capital via dilution on a constant on-going basis.
Company B: $60K, gross revenue; -$750K, net income. Trades at 74x revenue and will absolutely without a shadow of a doubt have to raise significant capital via dilution on a constant on-going basis.
p.s. Atlanta - I am no politician, nor have I been formally trained in conflict resolution, but thank you for the laugh
OMID
I think that the cynicism would be better received if the person you were debating wasn't extremely accomplished in performing his due diligence.
Still, I just want to say that I appreciate the constructive thoughts, albeit pessimistic overall, you have brought to the conversation via your alleged knowledge of the industry. Please continue to educate us while challenging Boston.
OMID
I'm with you farmer... Been looking to add even more. Feels like we are close and I am expecting at least 1:1 share exchange. 1:2 (Amda:Zimmer) would not surprise me.
Basically a foregone conclusion at this point. M surprised by the close today ~$2.50 but I am not worried. Not yet.
Deep value here which will eventually be realized and reflected in the share price.
OMID
Ok, yes i see now after reading a little bit further:
The warrant shares would be purchased at a price of $144/share?
The bolded sentence is slightly confusing due to underlined.
Interesting data there. Definitely helps to explain why there is such limited cash burn.
When reporting, I presume they are accounting for the inventory via cost of goods sold. So there won't be a sudden spike allater on when they have to order raw materials and produce large batches. Anyone confirm that?
Replies to quoted text below:
I believe the use of existing relationships is often the route taken by companies. Not because it is cheaper but because it is already a known process which requires the least additional effort and has a proven efficacy via prior business.
Case in point: I just purchased $20K of gages for my site QA lab which I could have gotten cheaper elsewhere but this is an approved vendor. I don't see how this example would not be sufficiently similar for comparison to financing.
To be clear, I appreciate that you share your concerns and thereby encourage a full assessment of each new event.
My understanding without actually reading the 8k - I've been quite busy so I've seen snippets - is that there is a maximum convertible amount of shares which essentially still comes out to a price higher that current share price to rid the company of an obstructive financier
CL, if I am reading it correctly, the change of control clause is intriguing as it essentially forces any note holders who may conceive of a path to M&A to convert their more to shares regardless of their warrant price. They risk missing the big payoff if they don't.
Of particular interest is the last item: instance (e), which states that a binding agreement by the company with another entity will suffice as an acceptable event to trigger a change of control as would any other previously mentioned instance (a) through (d), all of which are the more obvious and clear changes of control.
OMID
It may have been wise for sonny to find financing elsewhere in order to maintain a healthy distance between his personal finance and AMDA.
I don't see why today's news is being construed as so obviously negative; any financier should have received fair terms for their money regardless of who it was.
While the financing sounds toxic, in reality the financier paid a premium to the public share price. This has been pointed out by the people who actually base everything they say off of facts rather than conjecture - why does it seem to be going unnoticed as a secret?
OMID
Brilliant post!
Had to read it a couple times; the valuation method is intriguing.
OMID
I love these posts. Thanks for keeping my heart rate elevated ??
I'm all in as of today with one if my main accounts.. in the unlikely event that they do a private offering and price drops: I don't even care.
OMID
Killer post. Happy New year!
I've had much Tyrone understanding how anyone can think AMDA is worth less than $1B right now. I think that would be a very generous purchase price.
OMID
Well said. Could not agree more.
Sign me up for the cult following is boston and CL101 after this.
OMID
Been here for years and I can hardly wait for what I can now sense is coming shortly; it was the inevitable outcome I expected as soon as I first looked at the IP of this company.
OMID
Merry Christmas to all here. It's been a long time for many of us but it appears that the wait is nearly over.
OMID
Certainly intriguing, thanks for sharing boston.
Definitely will add before then.
OMID
Could not agree more. This is the future of healthcare.
OMID
NEW PATENT: Any experts care to comment on the value of this new patent?
Thanks in advance.
OMID
http://patft.uspto.gov/netacgi/nph-Parser?Sect1=PTO1&Sect2=HITOFF&d=PALL&p=1&u=%2Fnetahtml%2FPTO%2Fsrchnum.htm&r=1&f=G&l=50&s1=9804865.PN.&OS=PN/9804865&RS=PN/9804865
That's incorrect. You are likely failing to realize it says prior 3 months and prior 6 months. If you are interpreting the balance sheet properly, revenue in 2Q2017 increased roughly 22% over 1Q2017.
OMID
The subsequent events section of the filings will be telling then.
If the loan was paid off prior to filing, we will find out there.
OMID
That doesn't mean a thing. They can build a short position whenever they want and when the long shares or warrants are available, use them to cancel the short position. This way, profit is guaranteed and known the moment they short.
OMID
Someone is happily scooping up shares..
OMID
Ok man, no disrespect but I am going to break this down so you can understand it and we can all move on.
The story begins with "my money" being equal to $10,000.
I then go and buy AMDA at $1.2/share and subsequently sell it at $3.60/share.
I now have $30,000 dollars and I can reasonably tell people that I have tripled my money.
You are confusing asset value with profit which would be 2x "my money".
I don't know where you are from - perhaps it is in your profile but frankly, I don't care; the example you are attempting to use is not standard by any means.
How would one communicate what you are describing in words to another individual?
"I made double my initial investment in profit."
It is easier to say: "I tripled my money"
Hope this helps.
OMID
I had to laugh out loud at the fact that you remained vigilant in your attempt to save face about your initial mistaken idea of a double/triple of cash invested in a stock.
I suggest you throw the towel in bro.. admit the mistake earlier next time cause it really doesn't even matter.
OMID
Great post. Thank you and even though you didn't go anywhere: welcome back.
OMID
Only adjourned for one week now.. I feel like there's a countdown coded into the adjournment durations. One can hope I suppose.
OMID