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28June18 ATNM Chart
I feel like a broken record but the news today continues to prove what I have been saying:
This technology platform enables any bio-targeting mechanism to become a homing missile; it can be used to render all current targeting mechanisms more deadly - including those that have no/inadequate killing power - and has an extremely broad indication with widespread use in medicine.
This is revolutionary!
OMID
Actinium Pharmaceuticals Is Better Than Celator
https://www.yahoo.com/amphtml/finance/news/actinium-pharmaceuticals-better-celator-214506953.html
INTRO:
You mentioned recently that the price was not your concern for adding; timing is your real driving force.
Will she be ripe enough for you early next week ahead of the Zimmer Q2 CC and with the Japan clearance coming at any moment now?
OMID
One day, we will be unexpectedly taking a rocket ride.
Great research paper abstract.. it doesn't get much clearer that the IP of AMDA has extreme value.
OMID
What a monster this thing is.. consolidations are fast when there are no sellers..
You literally have to move up to find them and then, shortly thereafter, they are gone.
OMID
This pullback was fully expected and warranted.
The last two pullbacks were very strong as well but I anticipate that this one will last a bit longer since we moved up quite significantly and the chart needs a chance to breathe.
Overall, there's extreme strength here despite the consolidation. We bounced nicely from the 200MA which is now support.
OMID
I strongly believe that this company will be bought out in-excess of $5B. Perhaps less if it happens sooner than later (2 years).
OMID
This is not going to be a popular post here among the longs; however, keep in mind that I am long for years and not worried. I am simply going to tell it how I see it per your request and likely add to my current position(s) if things progress as illustrated below.
Check my previous posts for details about how the financing can be exploited by the Series B preferred shareholders, maximizing their overall ownership of the company.. this will be quite easy to manipulate, requiring little effort. It would be entertaining to see a few large institutions or interested buyers start competing to collect the OS at such low valuations.
There is certainly still a good chance that $1 will be the low; I caution all longs: I'd hate to be out of this when big news drops. Anyone short has a death wish for their general financial situation IMHO.
OMID
ATNM Research Papers/Articles
Basic Science on ATNM site
https://www.actiniumpharma.com/awe-technology
- In a nutshell, any bio-targeting mechanism can be bound with radioactive actinium isotopes to produce an extremely deadly, accurate, and precise treatment to eliminate the target.
ATNM Pipeline:
https://www.actiniumpharma.com/product-pipeline
Convention Posters:
Daratumumab
1. https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/actiniumpharma/files/docs/ATNM_AACR2018+Poster.pdf
2. https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/actiniumpharma/files/docs/ATNM_ASH2017_AC225+Daratumumab_Poster.pdf
Actinium Pharmaceuticals: Neglected Assets In Niche Oncology
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4166543-actinium-pharmaceuticals-neglected-assets-niche-oncology
Nice publications on Targetted Radio-therapy using alpha particles
1. https://www.urotoday.com/journal/everyday-urology-oncology-insights/articles/98187-a-review-on-the-development-of-targeted-alpha-therapy-in-the-treatment-of-cancer-focusing-on-the-first-and-only-fda-approved-targeted-alpha-therapy-radium-223-in-the-treatment-of-metastatic-castration-resistant-prostate-cancer-mcrpc.html
2. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4940885/
Various Publications:
https://www.actiniumpharma.com/product-pipeline/publications
Who knows what they're waiting for but it seems awfully quiet to me. AMDA does not appear to be acting like a company that hired a sales team from Zimmer (with very high salaries) in order to blow up their sales.. I can't wait to see the subsequent events section on the next 10-Q - are they really doing nothing?!
Exploring a scenario other than the (more likely) buyout option... Perhaps the company is guarding its cash position while planning an intense marketing/promotional campaign in the US and abroad. Clearance in Japan may provide cash flow which will reduce financial risk and enable execution of the growth plan.
But if the above seems plausible in a typical business scenario then it really lends credibility to the theory that it's the last piece of the puzzle for BO.
OMID
Class action lawsuits are only good for the legal assholes leading them
Current MC for ZBH is 22B.. 20% is therefore 4.4B
Might a cash & shares deal also maintain the 20% requirement?
Great point - I forgot about the dilution, per my previous post, let me calculate the dilution and subsequent assumptions..
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=140776357
I'm starting to suspect that ZBH used the guise of requiring a clean balance sheet and exploited the opportunity to reward the loyal institutional holders which comprise the main holders of their stock.
If they are going to buy AMDA for a fortune (I'm thinking 3 ZBH:1 AMDA share) they might as well make their homies happy.
OMID
lol. you are failing to realize that the fear of "hedging" was that the buyout would happen instead of the financing - leaving them short at $4/share when the stock could've been bought at $200/share. This to me - and I'm willing to bet: most of the board participants - would be an unappealing risk to take.
Think whatever you want, you are obviously too smart for this board. That's the last reply you will get from me about this mundane detail.
OMID
First, I just want to say that the person is an accredited investor and not the whale that you are all imagining. They have been long AMDA as a common shareholder for several years and were thrilled at an opportunity to be long the stock with a significantly diminished risk of dilution or declines in the share price. They remain a common shareholder as well as a preferred shareholder.
Actinium Pharmaceuticals: Neglected Assets In Niche Oncology
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4166543-actinium-pharmaceuticals-neglected-assets-niche-oncology
Great article - take note that there are 18 pages.
OMID
Barring truly bad news for their progressing trials - which I do not suspect will come to pass - I believe that the bottom is in.
OMID
The chart setup is great and news is due this month
This baby is finally ready to flap its wings
Guys, I have contact with someone who invested in the recent offering and owns series b preferred shares. Does anyone have any questions about anything?
Has anyone else noticed that Amedica share price has been held at almost exactly 1/100 of Zimmer's share price for quite a while now?
Coincidence I guess?
Omid
Yes, absolutely. And moreso for those that have not converted yet - I would expect that more than half are already converted to cover the massive shorting done at $4.
If you were not short when you purchased units: unless you want to free up your money (take small loss and hold free warrants), I do not see a reason to convert the preferred to common until the price pops (hard).. the ideal scenario for preferred holders would be AFTER the conversion at "87.5% of trailing 5-day VWAP" goes into effect and the price launches on news from, for example: $0.80/share to $12/share. It would seem imperative to me for a preferred holder to convert immediately on the same day that such a pop happens to lock in the low convert price with almost no expectation of it going back below 1.4512.
Barring an event like this, the Series B protect the holder from future dilution and - in the event of a buyout - will have every bit of a share of the pie as commons; not necessarily more:
The forced conversion will eliminate the premium for buybacks of the Series B; after trading $500K+ per day at a price of ~$4.3536 for 30 days will push a holder out of their position. I think it is safe to assume that the official closing will take at least 30 days after the initial announcement and, if so, Series B will convert to common at a price of $1.4512/share prior to the official closing.
I don't believe we will see an actual redemption.
OMID
Ngan, I stated earlier that the acquisition cost will not be affected by this financing from the perspective of the acquiring party. I expect that the company is considerably more valuable now for this simple reason. I can stand by that conviction, especially after CL buttressed it with his stickied post. In addition, the below posts may be of interest to you.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=140691567
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=140682071
While financials are important in valuing any business, the public markets demand a good story above all else. If you have a good story, you don't really need much else (case in point: Tesla).
What we know is that this financing will allow any acquirer to boldly claim that AMDA is debt-free and perfectly positioned for explosive growth. Perhaps this is even important when considering the need for votes: AMDA commons will want to avoid a repeat of this and voters of the buyer will be easier to convince.
Finally, the company is continuing to operate as if it is going it alone - albeit very coarsely - but they are achieving an outcome which is a fiduciary duty of the board.
OMID
Boston, it seems that there are no terms set to buy back the warrants - the units were immediately separated at issuance.
Yes, good observation dp. I made a mistake with my review due to some unexpected changes and I decided to scrap the entire post.
To be precise, there is a significant difference between the revision to the S-1/A filed on 10May2018 and the final effected Prospectus filed on 11May2018.
I made a last check of the wording right after I submitted my post and confirmed that rather than each Unit/Preferred Series B share being convertible to the variable number of common shares & warrants, where the number of common shares is equal to the number of warrants received - as was indicated in versions of the Form S-1 prior to the final Prospectus (quoted below) - a "Unit" now appears to consist of a Series B Preferred share and a set quantity (=758) warrants per unit; the warrants are standalone.
This was a bit of a tricky change since the previous S-1 revisions were using examples of the number of warrants given a theoretical variable conversion price for Units into Series B Preferred Shares - now the Preferred shares are converted instead of the units and warrants are part of the package.
From the 10May2018 amendment (third paragraph):
http://yahoo.brand.edgar-online.com/displayfilinginfo.aspx?FilingID=12742899-874-292784&type=sect&TabIndex=2&companyid=603456&ppu=%252fdefault.aspx%253fcik%253d1269026
I don't think you can definitely claim that M&A is off the table.. perhaps an acquirer would like to proclaim that their acquisition is debt free - despite the relatively small overall expense to can acquirier there is extraordinary value in being able to paint a compelling, beautiful picture.
It is worth noting that the acquirer is not affected in regards to their expense to execute the acquisition by this and may actually pay a higher price.
OMID
Blue skies - the simple answer is that the various terms of the deal (pick a random one for example: floor conversion price) could have been a little more confidence-inspiring and shareholder-friendly. The floor conversion price could have been 50% of the initial conversion price for instance.
Also, with a little backbone, he could have made the initial conversion price a lot higher. These institutions would of had to accept his terms as they have already taken massive short positions to cover with their Series B preferred. They were between a rock and a hard place and Sonny bent over.
OMID
I commented a few months ago about raising capital - how it may not be the worst thing. I still believe this applies but it is painful to see Sonny do this to the long-term believers. It is virtually impossible for the institutions to lose on the deal they received.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=139874060
The good news is that the conversion price cannot be lower than $1.45 until 40 days from now.
Additionally, it is now good news (not surprising to say the least) that the institutions have very-likely shorted this thing in the $4-range and will be more than happy to cover through conversion with a large profit and hold the warrants. This is good because the institutions that have done this will not be hunting for the $0.48 conversion floor price.. which would require a 5-day VWAP at or below $0.548/share.
Barring some very good news, it will not surprise me to see the price head for these levels as this is historically very thinly traded and we have a whole load of fresh retail bagholders.
Finally, the company certainly could use te $ from the warrant conversions so I would expect the price to eventually recover above $1.6 - hopefully far higher on some very promising news.
The bottom line is that Sonny has proven himself incapable of running the company as the CEO. A pre-requisite to executing this agreement is one of the following: 1) complete financial illiteracy 2) a lack of confidence or faith in the technology/material/patents - I highly doubt it is the latter.
OMID
I'm expecting the financing to be announced this morning:
Over-allotted
Initial conversion price =~ $1.8-$2.15
OMID
Just checking in with y'all, great day here!
I've barely had time to observe the action but looks good for a gap up tomorrow morning...
Boston see your PMs on ST.
OMID
Did Hanson back track on all the lofty talk regarding the ZBH Q1 CC today?
What are the chances of ZBH announcing full investment into the AMDA offering? Later today?
Seems like such strange timing for AMDA to file the revised S-1 and if Hanson did not deliver it sure is curious.
OMID
Going to have to add again tomorrow after reading that [your post]... just when I thought I had enough.
Great post and good luck to us bulls; "god speed" to the bears..
OMID
I am totally a Musk-hater as well, mainly because of the BS he talks to finance Tesla: a total joke of an investment for the big dreamers.
Was looking into buying some TSLA Puts (bearish options for those who don't know) given that it is late-cycle for the automotive back securities, the financial spigots are closing globally with quantitative tightening and rising bond yields leading to desperate trade wars, and - in light of various developments against dollar hegemony across the globe over the past decade which are now substantial and occur with increasing frequency - there is a growing likelihood of certain-death of the US dollar itself.
Here are few interesting articles on those topics:
Tesla
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-04-18/teslas-2018-goes-bad-worse-safety-regulators-launch-probe
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-04-18/barclays-summarizes-89-page-tesla-bashing-report-5-tweets-dumb-americans-and-tech
Trade wars/dollar death
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-04-17/we-are-panic-situation-japan-asks-rusal-stop-aluminum-shipments-while-prices-soar
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-04-18/imf-sounds-alarm-global-debt-warns-united-states-stands-out
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-04-12/chinas-4-weapons-financial-destruction-what-they-can-do-win-trade-war
Hate to say this but I was hoping that the price would go down today.
I'm prepared to significantly increase my position if it drops much further.
As far as I am concerned: there is no plausible way to justify the current market cap based on the non-medical IP alone. This is becoming a total joke and I'm dead serious about this investment going on several years.
I know no one wants to go out on the ledge with a truly realistic price target but I am going to reiterate that a buyout price of $250 per share would not surprise me; on the contrary, I would call that cheap but - since no one with money or industrial interest in general seems to have a modicum of imaginative power with which they may identify a state-of-the-art material for multiple industries - I will take it if it means I don't have to wait for the organic growth to justify that level and beyond on revenue multiples alone.
People do not seem to be capable of appreciating the importance of materials in our society and the evolution of humanity over the past millenium, century, or even decade. Historians have provided a clue when they went about naming eras after the material that provided the opportunities for further development.
Make no mistake, silicone nitride will be no different and as an implantable biomaterial for articulating and non-articulating prosthetics, the barrier to entry could not be higher.
OMID
Right on. I expect to fully subscribe and over-allot any S-1 offering made because it will undoubtedly be at a preposterous valuation if it happens.
I also expect to reap rewards on all positions I have ever entered in AMDA (including a small buy which is now at a cost basis of ~$14.40/share).
As someone mentioned recently, there are countless tickers where highly-vocal perma-bulls actively linger because they are "trapped" in a losing trade and are not experienced enough to know that taking a loss can be an excellent trade (before it becomes a much bigger loss). I have been around the block many times and can see that type of situation from a mile away.
I do not suffer from the perma-bull syndrome and have on many occasions (not AMDA) happily accepted a loss as my best option. I want to explicitly state that I am not sweating any of my positions in AMDA at this time.
OMID
First, let me clarify that I don't believe an interested party with $10M could buy this. I am simply stating that buying shares at that market cap is very appealing to me and we are significantly below that.
My comment about the S-1 was more to communicate what I see as a key cause of concern (and potential opportunity for which dry powder would be required to take advantage). Generally speaking, uncertainty about possible financing (if any) is what is keeping me from accumulating much heavier than I am already and that is what I expect is also causing the opposite reactions from other savvy investors.
If the company had a strong cash position there would be far less perceived risk and fear of dilution. This may be the key reason we have dropped significantly over the past months - the S-1 is like an ominous dark cloud or a thick canopy. If the sun has a chance to break through it will promote growth and for us, I believe the share price will recover. I would love to see them cancel the S-1 but as a bull with a long-term strategy I don't think it would be terrible if they raised a very large amount of capital (~$50M) through massive dilution.
I never hold something that is pending a financing or is even likely to decline so I understand why people would be selling here; AMDA is the only real exception ignoring/suspending the appropriate bearish reaction (sell and wait) in my opinion.
OMID
Nineteen days til Hanson loses credibility and further erodes market confidence in Zimmer. Or will he deliver? Seems the table is set.
Added more AMDA last week, I will probably take a break from accumulating possibly get some clarification on how the S-1 will play out; however, I can hardly resist the extremely deep-value that every share represents here.
TBH, from a strategical standpoint: If I had $10M I would try to buy the company and then raise significant cash through dilution. So perhaps it's not the worst move for management to get some operating capital to facilitate growth if the BO/merger is not going through.
OMID