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Nice, looks better. I suspect some value should come from reserves and other mining permits.. but EPS looks about right.. IMO the fully diluted OS is ~400M but that's mostly theoretical as it would require conversion of warrants at $5+
BAA
I think that you were conservative with the production estimates for this year as well as the average price of gold.
This would push the 2016 EPS up quite a bit higher than your forecast.
The heap leach process used at Namoya is known to take about 3-months to see the full results from stacking. In December, the new CAT fleet doubled the average stacking rate from the prior 11 months (to 700 tons).
I suspect we will see some higher grades being stacked as well.
Ultimately, the company set guidance to ~250k gold oz for 2016. I will be surprised if they miss by over 30k as your table suggests. Ignore this if you were accounting for streaming implicitly.
Either way, thanks for sharing!
BAA
Lmao, love how everything popped on flat rates. Looks like crude and the markets lost after some sanity returned. Will gold be the only one to hold gains? Yep, and then some.
BAA
"Data Dependent" Fed Chickens Out Again - Blames Global Uncertainty For US Rate Hold
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-03-16/data-dependent-fed-chickens-out-again-blames-global-uncertainty-us-rate-hold
BAA
Grab your water buckets, boys, the wicked witch approaches!
-- I rented a fire truck
hahaha... expecting initial reaction to be dollar positive (hawkish Fed assumption) and gold negative. But after some re-adjustment I expect gold to rise with or without USD.
EDIT: big time failure of Fed. Dovish! Gold/crude/market pop along with Fed-credibility soon.
BAA
to be honest, I was a bit surprised that no one was going to mention it.
I was watching very closely. I have seen this type of trading before.. although rarely. To me, this is either a method of price manipulation or quiet loading.
Generally, I have seen this sometimes last for a week or a month followed by major price movements.
Also of note were the orders going through at prices below the bid. This was criminal if you ask me, as my order never filled despite clear opportunities and what I consider illegal trades below my bid.
BAA
Thanks, it's nice to see the business presented this way.
BAA
well, the triple seasonally adjusted data to push the recovery narrative is actually backing the Fed into a corner on their rate policy.
Central bank credibility is flying out the window as of late and the markets are clearly confused as hell. They can't tell they head from the @$$, if they are the tail wagging to dog or if the dog is just chasing his tail, which was is up or down? Is good news bad or good? Is bad news bad or good? Which was is the wind blowing?
Lol. All the more reason to buy gold.. but for now they have an excuse for the "market to make the news" and push gold down. Not to say that the manipulation is sustainable anymore but what's another try?
BAA
Gold pulling back pretty intensely... did the market only just realize that the Fed was possibly going to hike rates next week?.. and that the dollar was going to get stronger?
BAA
Thanks so much for doing this.
I will sticky your post if no other mods do today. I'll PM them individually and request sticky during happy hour today.
BAA
He and vlipsexpert are going to buy Banro at 12 cents when gold hits $400/oz
Nice find, that's a lot of shares at significant profit to convert/sell though.
Hope they hold but not if gold doesn't keep up. As i said, I think gold will be hurt by dollar strength from hike fear and crude drop.
BAA
Seems like dollar should strengthen heading into March FOMC:
Decent market data, fudged as they may be with seasonal adjustments, are increasing market odds of a rate hike.
Should put a little damper on gold (despite market selloff heading into it) but only because people think dollar can't rise with gold still, even after they saw what happened due to the hike in December. Gotta go with the flow in the short-term (see oil) and not with fundamentals which shall prevail post-FOMC
Sold a tiny bit to put money where my mouth is. Techs making me nervous without gold to render chart worthless.
BAA
Well said. I must admit that I have been a bit negligent when it comes to analyzing political risk. I felt that the confidence of RFW, Gramercy, and various other large investors covered this aspect on my behalf inherently.
I guess I will make an effort to understand it better. Thanks.
BAA
Np. I'm glad to contribute to this board. No shortage of respectable posters here.
BAA
Here is the common share breakdown:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=120848725
and note the p/e of 5 (multiplied by the annual earnings).. i don't see the mistake you pointed out on review.
BAA
I feel that while jurisdiction is not attractive, the recent Chinese government investment has turned solid political/DRC risk into pudding.
I just don't see how or why the DRC would cross Canada or especially China.
BAA
I presume that they under-advised so they can over-deliver..
You may be right but here is an excerpt from Banro's site:
http://www.banro.com/operations/overview
Basic share price calculations:
Assumptions:
fully-diluted common shares outstanding: 400M
AISC (streaming deals factored in) = $700
Conservative scenario
2016 avg. gold price = $1200 (very low)
240k mined for the year (60k/quarter)
P/E of 5 (super low)
$500 profit/oz * 240k oz = $120M profit
EPS = $0.3
PPS = $1.5/share
Realistic expectations scenario:
2016 avg. gold price = $1350 (seems very doable)
260k mined for the year (65k/quarter)
P/E = 10 (gold in sustained bull market -- should be closer to 15)
$650 profit/oz * 260k = $169M profit
EPS = $0.4225
PPS = $4.225/share
BAA
Gold-ETF Market Breaks Due To "Surging Demand-For-Gold"
Actually, as gold began to run GDXJ was $17 while BAA ~$0.17 (and lower)
Now ~$29 and ~$0.32, so we are beating the average junior miner.
Been watching this correlation and reading complaints for a while, bout time to put them to rest.
BAA
Keep your pants on: BAA is tracking with GDXJ, an index of junior miners.
Completely agree. Which is why I do not and will not ever have a "retirement savings" account unless I'm taking short-term tax advantage.
However, I guess I shouldn't say never as there is active legislation trying to force citizens and even employers to open MyRA accounts to give the government more free loans and suck wealth out of everyone.
BAA
It is cheaper for the powers that be to allow gold it's time to shine once people start to more-widely question the value of fiat currencies and central bank credibility.
The gold rally gives the sheep something else to talk about and focus on. Once gold has run high enough they can start a new bear market, killing the apparent appeal of gold once again with the help of a biased and agenda-pushing media machine. Finally, they continue with the same old shenanigans after paying a small price keep power.
BAA
"Six Reasons to Buy Gold in 2016"
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-29/six-reasons-buy-gold-2016
Nice day today guys, gold is strong and should grow stronger through the week as crude/index prices fade.
BAA
My prediction, which we can both recall later, is that BAA will rise much like GSS has.. the difference being that BAA will sustain its higher share price more easily -- barring a significant rise in gold itself.
BAA
I'd be shorting G$$ right now if I wasn't already shorting US oil producers via DR!P -- algos pushed up oil on a 1M build at Cushing reported by Genscape... smh
Pretty dumb jump in oil today in what's just another pathetic attempt to push up the indices. Gold holding up well despite DXY strength last week. Same as last time I said this: as the market sobers up, prices will come back to Earth and gold will have its next leg.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-26/there%E2%80%99s-feeling-bits-ice-cracking-all-once-big-new-threat-oil-prices
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-29/oil-dumps-pumps-despite-massive-cushing-inventory-build
BAA
Np, Tex. Btw, Banro tends to make a traditional "double-humped camel" pattern when it tops, lol
I was expecting an "echo" trade from mid-20s due to this. If gold runs, which is should, none of the rest of the chart may matter though.
BAA
This is the common share count breakdown:
Total equivalent common shares outstanding = 400M
Common shares outstanding:
~252M + 50M = ~302M
Warrants Outstanding:
12.5M @ $0.2275 (7.5M RFWB//5M Gramercy)
13.3M @ $0.269
8.4M @ $6.65
Total = 34.2M
Total at/near the money = 25.8M
Exchangeable Preferred Outstanding:
63M (issued with fixed valuation of 0.5673/share)
Data taken from Banro's site and their recent PR:
http://www.banro.com/investors/stock-information
http://www.banro.com/news-events/news-releases/banro-closes-balance-of-us9875-million-financing-20160226
BAA
Banro Closes Balance of US$98.75 Million Financing
http://www.marketwired.com/press-release/banro-closes-balance-of-us9875-million-financing-nyse-mkt-baa-2100765.htm
-- repost to sticky
It was the widespread lack of faith and - in some cases - downright hatred of gold that afforded RFW such good financing terms.
At least they have an incentive to hold onto 10M shares (to appoint a board member annually).. I presume this is the last of this nonsense.
Time to get serious about gold, gold miners, and especially Banro. Buying back the gold streaming deals is nice.
Shall I initiate the countdown til buyout?
BAA
you beat me. haha
BAA
Banro Closes Balance of US$98.75 Million Financing
http://www.marketwired.com/press-release/banro-closes-balance-of-us9875-million-financing-nyse-mkt-baa-2100765.htm
As previously stated, the share price likes to visit the price of financing.
When Banro announces the closing of the purchase of warrants at .225, I believe this may be an additional reason for a quick move to that level.
We shall see soon enough as the deal is supposed to close in February.
BAA
Even if MMs know that the book/enterprise value is significantly higher.. and even if they intend to get the price there eventually:
They will certainly turn the already-large gains into massive gains via a cycle of booms and busts which is most-easily interpreted via the chart and technical analysis unless someone/something steps in and impedes their shenanigans.
Last thing they want by the time Banro gets to $2/share is a handful of investors still holding large chunks of the float. Except of course for those who have proven their determination, commitment, and savvy masochism by surviving a wild ride.
BAA
My opinion is that we did not trade/churn enough in that range.
It also wouldn't hurt the chart at all, it was way too overheated above .30 that fast... quite surprising.
Highly doubt we see it today but I have been wrong before.
BAA
Kudos, homeboy. Have run into you so much over the years, I should be an honorary member by now.
BAA
Gotta say, I am surprised by the strength here despite gold taking a bit of a breather.
I think we may see gold break down a bit so I expect a tap at .25 so vlips can lose his attempted wager.. then a breather as well... it'll make a cup and then handle if I am correct.
BAA