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about $1.6 compensation for the officers, if they achieve their target bonuses. Do not know the number of options and conversion price for Martin, Berzholz and Cox.
Would love to know what are the targets for those bonuses.
Richard W. Pascoe as Chief Executive Officer $425,000
target bonus = 50% of base salary; 900,000 options at $2.51
Steve Martin SVP, Chief Financial Officer $305,000
target bonus = 35% of base salary;
Randy Berholtz VP, General Counsel & Secretary $268,060
target bonus = 30% of base salary;
Edward Cox VP, Corporate Development & IR $183,000
target bonus = 30% of base salary;
"I really do not expect any big move or anything like that."
Hey, it is up again today!!
I agree with you sentiment, however.
If this is a pre-conference bounce, appears there isn't much to expect.
"AND that have nothing to do with the fundamentals."
You are correct about that. That is why I am here.
On the other hand it would be naive to think that we retail holders will hear about changes in fundamentals at the same time the big players do.
I would speculate that the bondholder has made at least $500,000 since December on his $4,000,000 investment, while we and our joint DD on the fundamentals has returned us a negative.
Possibly if the price had not been driven down to $1.90, we would ultimately appreciate even higher than out current destiny.
The bondholder situation would not be so bad, if not for the fact that APRI management negotiated the deal on OUR behalf.
Wouldn't it be nice though that all investors had an even chance of success.
Hopefully we will also never read anyone ask why is APRI's price so low. It should be obvious by now.
Enough on that subject, sometimes talking about reality sounds like sour grapes.
Finished, kaput, endis, done.
"if 4 are achieved up to Q1, we will go over 5 IMO"
$5 might be a little much....but it is why I am here.
"you got the point."
Secretly in the back of all we posters minds I bet we retail holders know we will never make as much money on APRI stock as the groups you listed.
Truthfully, I am a little surprised that there were not strong denials of my earlier "rants". Maybe I am not alone with all my concerns after all.
I am not saying we won't all make money in the stock market, if we hold long enough. But, the bond holders, underwriters, investment bankers, hedge funds, derivitve insurers, as well as the various markets and market makers have rigged the game.
We are the equivalent of the player of the giant slot machine at the front door of the casino. Lots of lights and flash and an occasional winner to keep the interest of the players.
The SEC is inadequate because the players have more tricks and treats then the SEC can police. The rewards to the crooks are so huge and the penalties so few and so paltry, they are meaningless. Eventually the entire market will either implode from it's own dishonesty or maybe some president, some congress will strip wall street of it's advantages. (not likely however since they are the biggest contributors to both parties)
just another rant... and don't start me on public unions!!!
meds, meds, meds!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
AMHO's
hentied
"Hentied, can you elaborate on your view of convertible debt?"
I am no expert on shorting, options, etc. Others on this board are.
Here is what the note says, "convertible into shares of common stock at a current conversion price of $2.59 per share, which price is subject to adjustment upon certain dilutive issuances of common stock"
After all the shares that have been issued since last December the conversion price should be around $2.05. Which means to me, the holder of the $4 million note gets interest at 7% and is guaranteed the right to buy about 2 million shares at $2.05.
If you knew 2 years ahead of time that you were going to buy 2 million shares at $2.05, what would you do if the price of the shares were $2.60? Maybe short about a million shares until the price got to $2.05. Then, if the price goes to $1.91, You could feel free to cover up to $2.04, because it would be more profitable than your $2.05 conversion price. If then the price rose to $2,40, you could then short again, because you already have your $2.05 purchase price locked in. If I was the holder of these bonds, I might even try to influence the price of the stock on message boards to enhance my profits.
I imagine puts and calls all fit into this some how as well.
I am just old and stupid. Better to ask someone else. Based on what I have read on this board Eicoman might be a better person to ask. Besides you, he seems to be the most knowledgeable poster on this board, and if I remember correctly also knows something about options.
"I think it is time that Mr. Richard Pascoe showed us why he is our CEO ... and not just another empty, talking head.
Abbott launch soon?
Femprox phase III coming up?
What is it going to be?"
While I agree with you there could be consequences. I would love an HONEST assessment of where we are and where we are going and when does it look like we may get there. In the past the company offered pie in the sky. Recently we have had nothing but generalizations. The generalizations have left us with hopes, but no promises.
While generalizations, in my mind, are much better than pie in the sky, generalizations leave us to make our own pies. I would like sufficient information that I can model future cash flows for the remainder of this year and the next five years.
Besides your questions. What is the anticipated up front $ range for ROW Vitaros? Estimated Vitaros launch dates for Europe? Anticipated costs for Femprox phase 3, regulatory approval, start up?
What are you going to do to retire the convertible debt so we retail investors do not get hammered by the debt holder through shorting and options? (One of the problems with the world IMO is that the money changers are taking too much out of the world economy without adding much of value. Mostly they just increase the cost of everything to the rest of us.)
Tell us the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth as you know it now. I can take the truth. If the truth leads to a price of 80 cents I can live with it, provided I have full honest disclosure.
Just another rant......maybe you should all put me on ignore, I should keep my rants to myself.... where are my pills!!
All JMHO's
hentied
Who holds the notes? "them"?
Wasn't Dec 7, 2012 about the time all the crazy price volatility happened? Drop in price seemed excessive for getting rid of the CEO. Could account for about 1.5 to 2 million short shares.
Not sure either all or $1.5 million of the note is redeemable on 4/1/14 in cash or shares at a price of $2.08 (post recent offering).
The holder of the note also gets 7% interest annually.
CONVERTIBLE NOTES PAYABLE
On December 7, 2012, the 2010 Convertible Notes were amended (the “2012 Convertible Notes”) and restated to 1) extend the due date to December 31, 2014, subject to an aggregate of $1.5 million of the aggregate original principal amount of notes being subject to redemption by the holders at their election on April 1, 2014; 2) the conversion price was reduced to equal 125% of the market price of the common stock as of December 7, 2012 (subject to further adjustment upon certain dilutive issuances of common stock); The amended conversion price has been reduced to $2.59 per share for the 2012 Convertible Notes.
The 2012 Convertible Notes are, at the holders’ option, redeemable in cash upon maturity at December 31, 2014 or convertible into shares of common stock at a current conversion price of $2.59 per share, which price is subject to adjustment upon certain dilutive issuances of common stock. The 2012 Convertible Notes bear interest at 7% per annum, which is payable quarterly at the Company’s option in cash or, if the Company’s net cash balance is less than $3.0 million at the time of payment, in shares of common stock. If paid in shares of common
stock, then the price of the stock issued is determined as 95% of the five-day weighted average of the market price of the common stock prior to the time of payment. At December 31, 2012, the conversion price was above the current market price of our common stock. The 2012 Convertible Notes contain a beneficial conversion feature specific to the payment of interest in shares and will be recognized when that contingency is resolved.
The 2012 Convertible Notes were considered to be an extinguishment of debt as the terms of the debt instruments immediately before and after the amendment were considered to be substantially different as defined in the accounting guidance. In accordance with debt extinguishment accounting requirements, the new debt instrument was recorded at its fair value as determined on the amendment date. The fair value of the note payable was determined based on a discounted cash flow model using a risk adjusted annual interest rate of 16%, which represent a Level 3 measurement within the fair value hierarchy given this is an unobservable input. The estimated fair value of the note payable was $3.4 million which has been recorded in the consolidated balance sheet. In addition, the 2012 Convertible Notes have an anti-dilution provision that results in an embedded conversion feature that has been accounted for as a derivative. The Company valued the derivative using a Black-Scholes valuation model and the following inputs, stock price on the day of issuance $1.93, 70% volatility, the term of the notes payable (2 years) and the risk-free interest rate 0.25%. These unobservable inputs represent a Level 3 measurement within the fair value hierarchy. The estimated fair value of the conversion feature as of December 31, 2012 was $0.9 million which has been recorded as a derivative liability in the consolidated balance sheet. The estimated fair value of the conversion feature will be revalued on a quarterly basis and any resulting increases or decreases in the estimated fair value will be recorded as an adjustment to operating earnings.
The net difference of $0.3 million has been recorded as an extinguishment loss and is recorded in the other income (expense), net line item of the consolidated statements of operations and other comprehensive lo
I HAVE NO IDEA HOW LOW THIS WILL GO, but I feel certain that "they" will increase the price quickly, when they are through with the current pillage.
Of course after "they" raise the price again, "they" will also will let it fall again.
This scenario will repeat, repeat, repeat until either the company is sold or is profitable.
Makes me think that I might start trading some of my shares. If you can't beat "them", and we cannot, might as well join "them".
Just my discouraged rant at the moment. Probably say the exact opposite on another rant on a different day.
IT REALLY SUCKS TO HAVE THE APRI PRICE CONTROLLED BY UNNAMED PARTIES IN SPITE OF ALL THE DD, ANALYSIS, STUDY, ETC. WE HAVE ALL PERFORMED AND SHARED.
"The shelf life issue is the reason ABT has not launched in Canada IMO . This failure to launch in a timely manner has cast a shadow of suspicion as to whether or not there is "something wrong" with the product." -oldcoach19
I do not agree with the shadow of suspicion of something wrong with the product necessarily......but the perception seems to be wait for the room temperature version.
Perception means a lot, and in this case perception may mean that more and more companies will limit their marketing costs on Vitaros until the room temperature (or as they may perceive "the real thing") is available.
This was the basis of my earlier musings. Which is why I concluded this company is still undervalued only because we do not have the resources to see Vitaros and Femprox fully marketed.
Let capitalism work. Some companies just cannot make it on their own. Sell out to a stronger company. Only then will we stockholders realize the potential stock price and helpful products for the general public will be available sooner.
hentied
ps I still have all my shares. I so wish this was turning out different then it seems. Maybe it still will. Either way, IMHO, the price is a double from here over the next 12 months.
Dec 17, 2012 low was $1.89. Jan 18, 2013 high was $2.40
FYI
hentied
July 11. 2013 the low of the day was $1.94
The next day, July 12 the high of the day was $2.34.
Not saying that will happen again. Just saying this may actually be a buying opportunity that "they" (Cantor Fitzgerald) might use to "their" advantage.
Whether "they" do or not, My guess is the price does not stay down here long and will be back to the $2.20 area soon.
just more musings.....
hentied
Musings
The damage of yesterdays announcement is the delay of future revenues. There will be months and months in delays of some of the upfront fees and licensing revenues. There may also be a reduction in the amount of upfront fees or a delay in the total fees until a room temperature version is available.
So what are the damages. The approximately average cash out for expenses is $5 million per quarter. The cash balance at June 30 was $25 million. Management probably will not feel comfortable allowing the cash balance to drop much below $10 million (2 qtrs. operating cash).
Beginning cash $25
Minimum cash balance allowed $10
Cash available for spending $15. (Or about 3 quarters @$5 per quarter.
Any revenues will extend the number of quarters before the minimum cash balance is reached.
Question now becomes how much in up front fees and licensing revenue will be received between now and March 2014? March 2014 is the drop dead date for the minimum cash balance without additional revenues. Secondarily, when will the room temperature version be available? Third, how much in additional costs will be spent to get Femprox through testing, approval, marketing, etc? Fourth, how much patent life is still available on Vitaros?
I do not have the answers, but I do have a suspicion. I suspect that APRI cannot get much past June next year without a large cash infusion.
The good news is that Vitaros and Femprox or viable at this point and provide value to the company. One bad news has already happened....marketing of Vitaros will be limited until a room temperature version is available. If Femprox fails, or if it's projected time table is greatly delayed, this company is toast.
So the gamble is really Femprox, but the company does not appear to presently have the resources to bring Femprox to market. Common sense says that the company's management must lay off some of the risk for the company to survive or sell the company.
Possible solutions would include. 1)Sell Vitaros out right to a large pharma. 2)Partner Femprox with a large pharma. 3)Sell the company to a large pharma.
Selling Vitaros would generate a lot of cash, but not lay off any of the risk of Femprox not ever getting to market. Selling Femprox would eliminate the risk but leave only Vitaros as the company's product, with nothing in the pipeline, which would ultimately lead to the company's failure.. Partnering Femprox would reduce the risk, but again the company would most likely fail, if Femprox fails.
The only real solution to the problem is to sell the company. Sooner the better. Femprox is worth a lot now. Femprox chance of failure is reduced as every month goes by, but the chance of failure is still there. Sell the company now. Big Pharma can fix Vitaros, big pharma can finish the development of Femprox and maneuver through the approval process quicker.
Sell it now. Those products must be at least worth $200 million ($5 per share) in someone else's hands, which means an acquiring company would be glad to buy the company for $4 per share (which to me looks very good at this moment).
Conclusion: Hold my shares..........(gulp) buy more, if and when I get a chance.
Just my musings as of this minute.
hentied
Sigh..........
Specifically
Does this reduce or totally crap on more upfront fees? How long before the cold version is available? Will Vitaros ever be sold?
Generally
Will September and October continue to be bad months for the market? Have the Feds run out of bullets? How long can an upward trend line continue before it doesn't?
Am I disappointed, disillusioned, and generally pissed (mostly at myself)?
Well I know the answer to the last question.
Just saying. I have paid the admission for ranting!
hentied
" May 22 offering, which created 6M new shares"
"30,354,715 and 29,937,669 issued and outstanding at March 31,
2013 and December 31, 2012, respectively"
Ok to be exact 20%. Point is still valid about trying to compare TA charts with 30 million outstanding shares to a chart with 36 million shares. TA is worthless until the chart fully reflects 36 million shares over the period examined.
Why wasn't there a rights offering to existing shareholders? Why have the 6 million shares disappeared from reporting requirements?
Dilution is fine, if you purchased sometime after the dilution. If not there is nothing good about dilution for existing shareholders, if the price continues to fall.
All those outstanding warrants are a form of dilution as well. Certainly the price must go higher before they are exercised. When they are exercised however they will stall any further price rise as they will increase the outstanding shares by 15% (estimate) again.
You cannot make a silk purse out of sows ear. Even our upside is limited by the past dilution. Our fate rather it is up or further down seems to be in control of invisible parties whose agenda is unknown relative to our own.
We are now in the hands of "them". I would rather the price be in the control of management and company execution. It now appears likely that management made a pact with the devil and existing shareholders may have been the price.
I am stuck and have lost a ton of money. I will at least bitch about it and express my disappointment. I paid for the privilege.
hentied
Losing is being down 30% over several years while many, if not most stocks in the universe are up over 30% in the same time frame.
Being a loser is quitting during a competition with a known opponent in a defined time frame.
"They" has won.
APRI is down more from my average cost. I watch so many other stocks go up. The opportunity cost has finally got to me. Not only have I lost on my APRI position, I have lost by not having those funds invested in almost any other bio or tech stock.
"They" are in control and sucked everything out of we retail holders. TA means nothing until the charts totally reflect the recent 30% dilution. The fundamentals seem to mean nothing as evidenced by the recent announcements and subsequent price decline.
"They" may control 15-20% of the shares, warrants for another 15% (estimated), and who knows how many short shares and options.
The only way we retail holders will ever come out whole, is that if "they" can make more. We can then pick up the crumbs from their coattails.
"They" make money. We rack up losses and lost opportunities.
"They" have won and we are the losers for it.
JMHO
hentied
"I think it is fairly obvious that the missing 5.4M or so shares from the offering did not find its way into retail hands. Retail investors were not going to pay higher than market prices for Lazard shares." =DG
I don't know where the shares are. I do have to wonder if the boards attempt to put sunshine on the ownership information "might" have something to do with the disappearance of the whale yesterday. Can anyone explain why the sudden disappearance? We had 262,000 shares trade yesterday, higher than the 176,000 average daily shares traded for August. But why now?
I would think that if someone owns 5.4 million shares or about 15% of the company there would be a filing somewhere unless there is collusion through cooperating parties.
I have to believe there are fewer than 2,000 APRI shareholders. I would also bet that with so few shareholders the Board of Directors and the Officers of the corporation know the top 10 holders of the company stock (can you imagine them not knowing the holder of 15% of the stock?), maybe a few executives know them very well.
The company's registrar would also know the names and share count of the owners of all stock, but maybe the shares are in street names.
I do know those shares are some where, I believe the company BOD and officers knows who, an intervening party knows who, and obviously the owner of the shares knows. I also know that our lack of knowing who has those shares is at a minimum unethical, if not outright illegal.
If there are illegalities, then the BOD and the officers have traded their souls for some type of personal gain and possibly future lawsuits. Let's hope that is not the case.
Please APRI board keep searching and do not drop this issue it is a just cause
JMHO
hentied
Not sure about your calculation, maybe I am misunderstanding?
APRI has expenses of about $30 mill per year. I doubt that changes once Vitaros starts generating revenues. Maybe those expenses even go higher. $35 mill - $30 mill = $5 mill. earnings (or about 15 cents per share).
I assume we are speaking about the royalties after all licensing has been completed?
Bought a dinky amount today. Not a big deal. Just filling out my position.
I was thinking about the size of my holdings and why I keep adding to a position that I am deeply under my cost. It makes no sense other than my own belief from my DD that there is much more here than appreciated by the general market. Then I thought about the conversations here about the missing shares and the outstanding options.
Nothing makes sense. Large percentage fall AFTER the recent stock offering. The lack of significant volume or price movement lately in spite of news and expected news. Our combined DD with much greater expectations than the market.
I have no answer for the apparent conflict of our expectations to the market valuation.
I can only conclude it is "they". This will go higher when "they" decide. It will go as high as "they" decide.
So I have done the hard part here, you folks figure out who "they" is.
chuckle, chuckle, chuckle.
hentied
Added shares today. Not sure I understand Misovic's explanation.
Just going against the manipulation flow seems like a good idea.
I now own less than .036% of the outstanding stock.
woohoo! but small potatoes to many of you.
After news sell off
Spoke to soon!
I'm impressed, so please stop!
If today was sell the news......
I for one am not impressed.
Hope I don't regret saying that
hentied
"Looks like an opportunity to average. What we have is solid progress as a fellow investor commented. If we get positive guidance on Femprox then maybe mortgage the kids and dog. "--DG
Well there certainly is not going to be a lack of newsworthy events month after month for a long time!!
My only takeaway.
With no negative news, and an obvious path forward with the new focused strategy,............if you are short this stock, you seriously have to ask yourself "Why?"
I would not recommend an all out "mortgage the house and buy APRI" , but I would certainly have a strategy of buying more shares using an averaging method over the next 9 months.
Certainly no reason to sell that I can see.
JMHO
hentied
I should have been more definitive and descriptive.
I have worked in the accounting area (however not SEC work since the 70's) for so long, I forget that I am not writing to others in the same discipline.
Anyway you solved it for yourself. Good on you!
hentied
" and the P&L and BS are so easy"
Not for public companies that have to report using FASB!
There are individuals that make an extremely good living just interpreting and instructing the purpose of just small areas of FASB.
The biggest mistake Finance VP's and company controllers make is assuming it is easy. Expert guidance is needed for transactions, other than the obvious daily transactions.
"one or more material weaknesses in our internal control over financial reporting may have existed as of December 31, 2012, March 31, 2013 and June 30, 2013."
Likely a major transaction was not correctly recorded. Something like the deferred income taxes were incorrectly calculated when the building was sold, or proceeds from the sale of stock were recorded at net rather than recorded at gross with the associated broker expenses recorded as a cost of capital.
If above is true, then the errors will all be small and contained on the balance sheet (none on the P&L's) and will have no effect to we investors, but it is an error and offensive to FASB purists. These errors often come to a light with a change in auditors. One of the reasons why I am in favor of a change in auditing firms every five years or so.
More serious weaknesses in internal control would NOT be contained to the financial reporting. More serious errors would involve an alphabet dept of US or foreign govt. Those types of errors would include fraud, purposeful misrepresentation of financial information or illegal payments such as kickbacks.
So IMO this is nothing much and management wants to be able to tell us about it on Monday rather than just surprise everyone with the release of the financials.
All above just conjecture mixed with a slightly educated guess.
hentied
DG thanks for the clarification.
"Room Temp: Are we on the same page? "
I am probably not. Am I mistaken that Abbott will not sell Vitaros until the room temperature version is available?
If so, I did not realize that it may take until 2015.
My reference was to the Canadian launch.
Do not see any near term catalyst right now, but I own a truckload of shares at slightly higher average that hopes you are correct!
"I asked for room temperature, she said it is only in discussion in Canada and when the stabilization is done, it will require 9 months for the approval (if approved). they said in Europe they are not even looking yet for that."
"Slip sliding away, slip sliding away
You know the nearer your destination, the more you slip sliding away
Whoah God only knows, God makes his plan
The information's unavailable to the mortal man
We're workin' our jobs, collect our pay
Believe we're gliding down the highway, when in fact we're slip sliding away."
Simon And Garfunkel Slip Sliding Away Lyrics
Well maybe I just have a near empty glass, but........
IMO, before this company is sold the officers and directors will have granted themselves so many options, they will be receiving near half of the proceeds.
Which of course means that retail holders will eventual;ly get only 1/2 as much as they might expect now.
just saying.......IMO
"The partnership for Femprox should be a blowout because (there is little doubt in my mind that) it will indeed be single global development and license agreement.
Now Vitaros is another thing. Which of those Pharmas is going to step up to the plate? Will they want to take Femprox as part of the deal? I would think so. I think that would pretty much restrict partnership to a top tier Pharma." -DG
Taken that statement as is, that could likely mean a high probability of a buy-out instead of a partnership. Why pay for 2/3 of a meal?
Good afternoon, lovely day.
Hopefully, many more to follow.
AIMHO!
hentied
You can even use the fully diluted share number and arrive at about $90 mil market cap. $60 net of cash!! a lousy buck and quarter per diluted share for V and F?
This has to be one of the best "buys" in any market today!
Wish I had saved some powder!
Strong buy! Strong Buy! strong buy! STRONG BUY!
Do we have enough shares between us to have a special election?
just kidding. (I think)
At this point I would accept a deal for the entire company and be put out of my misery.
no more small caps, no more small caps. (wish I had a nickel for every time I had said that.)
What manipulation? geesh.
Hmmmm! This may be nothing more than "cover your short" day.
Hit it hard at the beginning with 50-60,000 share sell and then cover my short without increasing the price from earlier in the week.
If that is indeed what is happening, maybe, just maybe... some positives may be in the near future. Kind of follows robs trading observations.
Now I am anxious to see what subsequent days trading will be.