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Hi Reaver, not directed to me, but I will butt in here.
If by changes you mean the administrative personnel changes, I have to agree. If you mean the ownership composition and what changes that might cause, I have to agree.
With biotechs it is all about the SCIENCE. IMHO science has been the weak spot for APRI. None of the changes made seem to address the science other than the addition of another potential product that still needs phase2 testing and the resurrection of previously shelved application.
On the other hand the product that was thought to be the blockbuster has been shelved and the room temperature version of Vitaros has been pushed back.
Would love to see an upgrade to the scientists! When we all talk about execution are we not really saying get the science right. Spend money on science that will yield financially strong results, get it approved, and get it to market.
Maybe I am ahead of myself again.
Science, science, science!
I guess I am jumping the gun. We wait.
The worry even at pocket change is that Vitaros is the only revenue producer in both royalties and milestones for the next 3 to 4 years.
If Vitaros has no follow through sales at the retail level, this company is breasts up.
I have reduced my exposure greatly, but after 5 years, one gets tired of the color red.
Nothing from France yet. That is worrisome. If there is no launch, there can only be one reason. Not worth the effort for our partner.
Without information on sales in Britain and Germany we can only speculate. If end customer repeat business has not been there, then a decision may have been made by our partner to abandon the project.
If there is no launch in France, that would certainly be a "tell".
So come on LAUNCH ALREADY!!!
No, I was referring to the lack of posters. By the way, where have you been? Hmmmm.
Where is the light switch?
Might as well turn off the lights, as the party must have ended.
I'm back.......
with hope and a prayer to the god of perpetual stock addictions.
Indeed.
Thank you. Do not be shy about passing on others.
APRI looks good at these levels, The problem of course is that nothing generates sales except Vitaros, and as of now, we have no idea whether Vitaros will ever generate enough sales to push the company into a positive cash flow.
Thanks again
hentied
APRI
Looks like the private room is not helping.
thanks binchey
hentied
thanks Binchey!
Thank you. I have started DD.
Ya you probably will. I can't seem to stay away. On the other hand I am already up 4% on my trade out of APRI and into another stock. Of course that could change dramatically, but it is better than watching drip, drip, drip.
Sold my remaining shares this morning. Earlier sold some at a profit. Today I took a loss. There are just too many opportunities out there to watch this.
One might make money owning APRI. It is just that one might make money on any stock in the market.
Certainly the price can go lower. IMO it is dead money until the room temperature dispenser is ready to launch.
So I will sit on these shares, as we may see a launch in the next 6 months, or at least start hearing buzz about the dispenser.
Heck, I sat on a lot of shares for many years, and watched the price continually drift lower and lower, knowing that eventually sex would sell.
Sitting on these shares for 6 months to a year is a cake walk in comparison.
Unfortunately I am back.
Had what I thought was a low ball offer on GTC. Guess it wasn't so low ball.
"I just don't think that's realistic."
Especially not realistic given that the company's history of accomplishment is dismal at best.
Remember
1) Vitaros in Canada, buy US rights back, ROW partnership and this company will be much much higher. OOPS!
2) Femprox for women will be partnered and this company will be much much higher. OOPS!
3) Room temp version of Vitaros will make Vitaros really successful in 2014, and we will be much much higher. OOPS
4) Now we are suppose to believe a Phase 2 product will make us much much higher.
5) Rayva?
APRI certainties. Bonuses for the officers and dirtectors. Tons of dilution.
What this transaction tells me is they have thrown in the towel on their pipeline.
" If sales of Vitaros are stellar, then we're in the clear"
They have to be stellar to survive. We may receive $3-4 in royalties for 2015, so we need to license other territories, milestone payments, etc. All dependent on SPECTACULAR Vitaros sales.
If sales are not spectacular, well now we are committed to spending money, we don't have and with no way to get it.
As I said sounds like Damaj redux.
Sounds like Damaj redux to me.
So obviously I am missing the point.
Where does the money come from to get this drug approved. We did not have enough cash to get Rayva approved.
What a relief. Hopefully we have found the bottom. Would think we need another attempt at $1.40 on a down market day to be sure, but maybe not.
Just happy to see a large green number!
Maybe there is a god for stupid investors. I was awake most of the night chanting "Oh god of stupid investors please give me and old coach a double digit increase tomorrow."
Shazam to anticipate your next question.
I am still here because I still own shares. If I sold out totally I would have to admit to myself that I am an idiot for breaking every investing rule, as well as ignoring commom sense.
SO I still own shares wishing for a visit from the stock fairy, or the god for stupid investors to perform a miracle with APRI, so I can have just a modicum of self respect.
So here I am, just wishing and praying.
GLTAL's!!! We need it.
hentied
No I do not think because people haven't posted they sold. I think that is a tell that they sold.
I think they sold because they are intelligent people, who listened to the news about, Femprox, Canada, room temp dispenser delays, negative cash flow for the foreseeable future, a declining stock price ( in a word -fundamentals) and decided to reduce or sell
Over the last 3 years there was always hope of a major event in the near future that would be a catalyst for significantly higher prices in the foreseeable future. That hope has now been removed by recent management disclosures. To hold through this decline without hope would mean holding with a wish and a prayer.
The proof is that management can now buy shares significantly below their option prices. Why would they not buy shares now rather than wait and exercise their shares at a higher price? Only one answer, they do not know if buying shares at this time is worth the risk.
This is one long term long that has all but abandoned APRI. I HAVE BEEN HOLDING FOR MORE THAN 3 YEARS. I now hold less than 5% of my previous high ownership. I sold out in the $1.80's and $1.90's, then bought more in $1.50's, and sold almost immediately.
I believe many, if not all of the long-term longs have sold or reduced their position. You could tell by the reduction in posts by some posters and the absence of some of the other posters.
As a long-term holder I can assure you that the abandonment of hope was not caused by anyone or anything. The abandonment of hope was caused by the disclosure that Femprox will not be a revenue generator in the foreseeable future.
Management has now told us that it will need to raise $20 million. They have told us that Femprox will not be a revenue generator any time in the future. And by stating these 2 facts, they have told us that Vitaros will not put the company cash flow positive for a minimum of 2 years.
Which further tells us that any milestones over the next two years will not be significant enough tp put APRI cash flow positive.
So the stock price reflects giving up hope for a dramatic comeback for the next two years because management finally told the truth. (UNLESS YOU THINK THAT NOW THAT THEY HAVE ADMITTED ALL THIS BAD NEWS THEY ARE STILL LYING)
So, no shorts, no conspiracy. Just tough to hang in when there is no longer a profitable story, and the market is taking a beating. This is not to say that $1.30's might be a good price, but all of us longs that sold at higher prices are glad we did.
A few points.
1. I never left. I did reduce my holdings substantially, further since we are all in this together, I notified the board immediately when I reduced and why. I suspect that many of the most knowlegeable posters reduced their holdings as well, but did not say anything. Since we are in this together it only seemed fair to report when I added as well.
One of my pet peeves about these boards is that very often the most knowledgeable posters have no problem cheerleading right up to their last share.
2. I am pleased that management has enlisted the help of an IR firm targeting the retail investor. They should temporarily suspend using the IR firm targeting institutional investors. The several false starts frequently mentioned by SB have ruined any chance of meaningful institutional interest until 2016, IMHO.
3. I also agree with SB that Pascoe needs to reduce spending dramatically by clearing out the old high priced employees. The chairman of the Board needs to terminate relationship of many of the old board members.
I am very suspicious that some of Pascoe's publicly stated expectations were fed to him by the old regime, and he was lead down the primrose path as well. Which doesn't excuse him for failing to verify, but those that let him speak publicly about matters they were not 100% certain about, should be fired and gone NOW!
Added to my holdings. Bought back some of the shares that I sold in the 1.80's.
Bought back on the small hope that the general market for small cap stocks is near a bottom, and on a microscopic hope that Vitaros might cure cancer.
Maybe it is time for a shareholder lawsuit. Most likely the only way we will ever displace the current BOD.
If there is some DD that isn't be shared, why?
By the way do you notice the absence of many of the posters, who provide the most information.
I still own shares, please share some DD on all boards!!
I certainly need and would appreciate some substantiated DD to the positive.
some may consider my postings negative, I just consider them my views based on what we presently know for certain.
Vitaros will eventually
be a winner for Apricus. The question is how long will it take to be a winner. For me a winner is defined as sustainable royalties sufficient to exceed ongoing expenses (profitable).
I still hold a small percentage of my APRI shares, but I will not add more based on a bargain share price, nor will I add shares based on speculated potential.
This time I will add shares only on when the company can show me the money! Right now these shares are dead money to me.
JMHO.
If we shareholders had not taken such a beating, I might feel bad for Pascoe.
His previous statements on future developments for the company had to be based on his research of the company before he accepted the job of president.
I do not believe he ever lied to us. I do believe that he bought into the same possibilities as we did.
Do you think Pascoe would have taken the job at Apricus, if he knew then, what he knows now? I don't.
My revenue estimates may be low, but consider this. Royalties are based on a percentage of our partners sales.
Filling our partners pipeline is not sales for royalty purposes.
Partners sales price to retailers is significantly lower than the retail price.
I fear that many on this board believe that APRI is getting a percentage of the retail price. Others may believe that APRI get paid based on what they ship to their partners. Neither is correct.
IMO We go nowhere until the room temperature version is available. My estimate of Vitaros revenues is $500,000 for 2014, $4,000,000 for 2015 and very little in milestones. If correct, the company will lose about $20 million before the room temperature is available.
I can not foresee any other revenue sources over the next two years except possibly rights to other parts of the world. But this may not happen until there is a "PROVE IT" on the room temperature version.
I agree with SB and others the price continues to drift lower. Again I agree with SB and others, reduce costs ASAP and as much as possible, spend nothing except for the cost of delivering product and R&D on room temperature version.
Put feelers out for a possible buyer, but also do not give the company away. As of now a price between $3-$4 per share would make most people whole.
The world of pharmacy is full of future uncertainties. Maybe the room temperature version will not work as effectively, maybe a presently unknown side effect develops, maybe a new drug becomes available that is more effective and less expensive.
We are a very small, unprofitable company. We are vulnerable to a lot of bad shxt from a lot of big dudes. Actually based on past expectations and failures, we are subject to a lot of bad shxt from our own company.
AMHO
Unfortunately, GTP I have to agree with you, and have acted accordingly.
Very dead money and PLENTY of time to re-enter, IMO.
Now hold about 1/3 of previous position, so haven't given up totally.
A chagrined
hentied
Well yes a study is well justified, and could kill Flib, if the results are not good.
"The FDA has requested that Sprout complete two additional Phase I drug interaction studies and a Phase I driving simulator study. Consistent with their Phase I nature, each study is expected to include approximately 25-50 healthy volunteers. These studies will answer interaction questions on different enzyme pathways than those already studied, as well as identify if there is any possible driving impairment, as 9.8% of women experience somnolence, or sleepiness, while on flibanserin 100mg."
sale of the company.
Certainly the most recent delays, have increased the odds for a buyout.
Unfortunately if that occurred in the near future, the buyout price would most likely be less than pleasing to us.
Tom 1950,
I m not anxious to sell, as I said I am not in "fear" of a substantial decrease in price. I am just frustrated. Two out of three of my largest holdings were up by more than 5% yesterday, which is GREAT!
My frustration is that my 2nd largest holding is APRI, which was nihil, nada, nuttin yesterday. Dead money.
So I am considering that the shares I added in the $1.80's and $1.90's might be up for sale over $2.00.
Like you I have been in a long, long time. My average is about $2.50, with my original purchase in the $5.00's. Of course the only way I have been able to reduce my average to $2.50 is by breaking every intelligent investing rule.
In summary, not surrendering, but re-assessing strategies.
Good Luck
hentied
PS ignore SB he hasn't felt the pain........
Fear vs Greed.
I am becoming convinced there is neither fear nor greed in this stock.
For potential new investors there is little fear that the company will go broke, nor fear that the stock price will fall much lower.
Likewise there is no greed. No expectation that the company is on the verge of a great discovery, new revenue source, bullish announcement. Therefore no concern about missing that one day where the stock price rises by 20 - 30%
My hunch is that potential investors assume there is plenty of time remaining to buy this stock at a low price.
Which leaves our little stock influenced by the overall market and the whim of those who have a NEED to sell.
In other words, dead money.
Hope I am wrong.
4:00 AM can't sleep, decided to let you all share the misery.
hentied
On appearances, I would say some stockholders have become discouraged, and continue to lighten their APRI holdings.
Means new shareholders at a lower basis and possibly small investments by some tutes.
It has been 3 trading days since the Boston presentation. Hopefully, together with todays announcement, we will see 2 or 3 tutes take a position in the near future.
Well here's hoping.
Well SB I agree with everything in your last post.
Connect a few more dots.
A new IR firm that reportedly focused on institutional investors. A presentation on the East Coast in close proximity to many very large institutional investors.
Pascoe still does not have a lot of ammo for his presentation, but one can definitely see a pattern that a strategy is in place.
I have been adding shares the last 5 trading days, and have another order in today, that I hope will fill. APRI is still not my largest position, but getting very close!
STRONG BUY
hentied
What is wrong with the APRI stock price.
This is specifically off topic, generically probably on topic.
Here is a correlation study done by a poster on another stock board. While not specific to APRI, the stock price of the other company is suggestive of the stock price of APRI.
Again while not specific to APRI, I believe the study is worthwhile to the posters on this board.
http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=1933&mn=66747&pt=msg&mid=14074337
the timing of the call (a day later at 5AM PDT) does not seem to be for the convenience of management. Then for who?
Doubt it is because they are at the Hamptons, some of the best beaches around are in San Diego.