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perspective is key, http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EGSPC&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=
now dont make me count waves off that 2003 low.... we got 1 more new high left in this market, but who knows w/ iran, could start things a lil early
not really , chart tells us everything we need to know, but the problem in the US is everyone is saying things are great and S&P going to 1500 etc etc. etc.
its good to keep perspective on the overall economy and when u get a situation like we have now with over confidence in the markets, underpriced risk, and large structural imbalances you can see the potential for huge profits on the short side...
the problem is most people never get a clear picture of the problems until after its too late, financial news media has a vested intrest in a bull market which yields higher ratings, buy side analysts are just a joke, and the just about every government official and coporate exec is touting past growth and low inflation , what they dont tell u is most of the growth is from a housing boom and that inflation is hitting the average consumer hard, like when they want to buy houses food energy insurance and healthcare, hahahah, but hey semiconductor chips and microwave prices are going down so why shouldn't we just look at the core
we got a long ways to go before that call gets proven right, still looking for one more high in S&P before the shit hits the fan
yup, only thing we care about is there someone out there willing to buy what we're selling and how much pain they're willing to take before they sell em back to us, aka the wall street strategy when it comes to just about anything involving equity - dump expensive paper to the public whenever u can, at almost any price
ya man it is, but we've been living on borrowed time, and these major issues wont get discussed until S&P gives up 100 + points in a short period of time and everyone starts realizing how little risk is priced into our credit , currency , and equity markets... by that time it will be too late
time to put this post out there.... as ive been saying for the past couple months we are gonna have a tough 2006 and early 2007 in the equity markets, USD, and credit markets
The end of the 3 yr bull market... according to cycle highs/lows , wave pattern, and overall sturcture of S&P we should have 1 more high somewhere between 1310 - 1325 in S&P futures sometime in late February or early March...
on top of that the US economy has some major problems that will begin to reassert themselves in the markets and will force the market to price in a much higher risk premium...
a small list of problems w/ US economy :
- horrendous 4Q GDP and expected slowdown of growth
- weakening of corporate earnings
- increased global inflation(asset prices and no slack in wages)
- fed that is known to overshoot, and a fed funds market still prcing in more hikes even after GDP report
- massive trade deficit of about 700 billion a yr
- massive foreign holdings of US debt and assets that will be sold as yields become less favorable and foreign banks diversify away from USD holdings
- massive budget defecits from a congress that overspends, and a country spending 100's of billions on war and defense
- massive entitlement liabilities
- massive unfundended pension liabilities
- threat of democratic win in 06' elections(even though republicans arent much better right now)
- inversion of yield curve
- record low credit spreads( a sign of underpricing credit risk)
- weak MBS market = higher premium on default risk = higher probability of defualt in future
- weakening housing market(responsible for most of our GDP growth)
- no real wage growth, negative savings rates, and record debt levels for consumers
- high asset prices, gold silver platinum oil copper houses
- overextended consumption cycle(consumer should come back quickly as baby boomers and echo boomers are still in their spending cycle)
- geopolitical risk out of Iraq, Iran , Nigeria
- increasing energy costs, increasing demand from developing nations to continue
- USD weakness from fed eventually pausing and more debt/deficits
etc etc. etc.
S&P target by early 2007 - 1050 to 1115
SELL 127575 area, making sure ES stays < 127925
try this,
ES Jan 23 2006
drink smoke and sniff it up boys - HAPPY NEW YEARRR
ES06H - Dec 20th - Annotated 15 min -
next play is AHM, i got some from 27's and 26's.... march 25 calls were nice down there but didnt get any
this one should go back over 40 by mid 2006, if housing market doesnt collapse or fed doesnt do anything stupid...
now 23.65 :) yaaa tmoney.... u owe me atleast a grand
good call, i got out w/ my overnite margin callsss... Lol
not covering them,holding overnite.... ES going back to 120000, just need to take some pain in meantime...
ES NOV 5th
OCT 25 annot.
***120550***
penny stocks are for bitches
thougt that was worth repetaing
about 22 pts today on a 1 contract basis :)
im short EUR/USD 1.1886, the pair is trying for a new 1 yr low, im betting we get a push into the year low @ 1.1866
haha, ya the operative word is 'average'
and all that stuff is in a theoretical world... and there are people who outperform the 'market' over time but there are VERY FEW of em....
as for prop trading and hedges, most "pros" have an information edge(prime brokers, bloomberg, best platforms, associates to do research, inside info), better and cheaper order execution, black box trading algorithms, better ability to 'locate' borrowable shares on more securites, significanly more experience, and the list goes on and on
more times than not its the pros eating the individuals lunch, and the few who do it consistenly are the ones we read about...
theres no market that can inherently do that IMO, or it wouldnt really be a market(discount rate is basically the highest level or riskless return the average person can get, more u risk of course more potential reward but its still relative)... all depends on the trader and how their strategy matches w/ the market
but ya, personally i find S&PS give me a better way to control risk and still go for big gains, plus u fill in under a second, no halt risk etc etc..
definitely trying ....
OCT 16 - 60 min annot.
lol, lightweightttts . all of u
damn sam ... damn
nice chart...looks ready to come off that bottom
correction: hit 1185.75 :)
dan, is my wave count correct.. the second 5 wave into August could be the end to a large 3 wave and the B wave that follows would be the 5 wave that just didnt complete itself...
i think the annotated cycle seems likely as the 2nd C wave bounced right off the ascending support line around 118600 and the early Sep. high couldnt get up to the previous high
SELLING 121200 area (yellow line)
we can blame it all on the guy that told us about the ISM number... he cost us 50+ points
this week will be key.... S&P still bearish medium term(2 to 6 months) IMO, until it breaks the descending ress. line off the last 2 highs , its upper boli band, and the ascending wedge thats been forming with some serious volume and conviction we should head lower... below 1200.00, possibly the 1185.00 area
in the short term we have a bullish attempt here that should test key resistance and open up some good shorts, may want to hold a contract for a swing from 124000 to 120500 area(123600 to 120100/120300 in cash market)....
hit 118700 Thursday afternoon...
sometimes i ask myself ... why?
called the top to the tic and missed 23+ points(more tomorrow)
hahah, its not like 123900 was the high of the day... oh wait it was, followed by a LOD about 10 points lower
this week will be key.... S&P still bearish medium term(2 to 6 months) IMO, until it breaks the descending ress. line off the last 2 highs , its upper boli band, and the ascending wedge thats been forming with some serious volume and conviction we should head lower... below 1200.00, possibly the 1185.00 area
in the short term we have a bullish attempt here that should test key resistance and open up some good shorts, may want to hold a contract for a swing from 124000 to 120500 area(123600 to 120100/120300 in cash market)....
soon we'll be trading enough of the volume to get them to open that shit on saturday....
hmmm ... that sounds familiar
ES05Z, 15 min
nice job man, u trading mostly options now??
dont hate on my boy dougie...