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ET approaches 52wk high, id say someones in the process of buying them or a competitor(Schwab) out or some type of highly acretive merger news is gonna hit...HSBC maybe, Schwab? hmmmm
S&P sept contract back to 119200, nice bounce off 118600
Terrorism in London and S%P gaps down 13 points, the Sept contract gaps thru key support levels but bounces off 118600 and looks like we may see some type of correction as the markets gain some certainty and digests the situation
ESP5 just hit 1202.50 :)
check out CURN and MIVT, two im watching right here...
Short S&P(ESP5) 120950, covered 120850
considering a EUR/USD short ~ 11935/40 w. 11952 stop/loss
targets would be 11880 and 11845
MIVT / PCRG / IYXI / AKSY / INSN / QIIIF
S&P spot(SPY), 1187/1222, watching for break one way or the other, if we fail to break and hold 1222 or trade thru 1187 I would expect the markets to move into a 1135/1187 summer range... 50 / 200 dma and ascending support key levels within that range
Sept S&P over 1200 figure, watching for possible short just above these levels...
AUD just took a beating, along with sterling and everything else against USD...
[01:55 AM EDT 07/05]
IMF's Rato says that there is no need currently for the ECB to cut interest rates buts also adds that they would be well advised to keep all their options open.
hmmm...seems like the European central bankers are 'priming' the market here, sounds EUR positive at first glance, but my bet is they're lieing and we see future rate cuts..big big EUR negative, especially if fed continues in US and the 10yr can sustain a bounce...
USD/JPY chart still looks strong in its upchannel, USD run is probably overdone but ill wait for it to break that ascending support line on the hour chart or make a move towards 112 before thinking about going short...
im considering EUR/USD here but i have a feeling its gonna end w/ me just being pissed i fought the trend...
good support .7470/75, those export #'s prob had something to do with weaker AUD over the last 4 months though...
POMGF / BWDI / CSTL / DLGI / EFTI / JLHY / ARET / FASC / PCSV / VSTH / ZYNX
Its like a warzone in the BK tonight...
they are slow premarket but the most volume/volatility is in the first hour of trading, like individual stocks...last hour also provides some good trading volume too
I tell you what, Ill pay your ticket to come here to NYC and ill personally give you a tour of the two gaping holes in the ground... maybe then you'll figure it out
Im not gonna even debate some of the points you raise, because most of them fail on their own merit, but you seem to be utterly disenfranchised from modern history and simple truths,
1) a terrorist is a terrorist, they all want to kill the "infidels"
2) appeasing murderous dictators is a bad strategy, unless you thought the political left in Europe had Hitler right where they wanted him, after annexing all of Europe etc etc...
3) America has and will protect itself by any means necessary and will protect ITS citizens above anything else...
sorry if this if this seems "imorral" to you, i tend to conserve those judgements to people who decapitate their enemies on tv, blow up busses in town squares, and crash planes into buildings i used to be able to see from my apartment...
a picture is worth a 1000 words...
EUR/USD trades down to 1.2020 then bounces all the way to 1.2010 but cant break the important 1.2020 level
ha, too many wedges i guess...
correct, a big descending wedge from end of May forming with trendline support ~ 1.2020 as well as an intraday wedge with support ~ 1.2080 that just broke down , under that I see shorterm support ~ 1.2045 ... right now the pair looks like it has a downward bias but the 1.20 figure and above should have a strong bid...
to the upside 1.2120 looks like a pivot, strong resistance and would confirm a break of the wedge if traded thru...
PLKC / COVD / WLSF / SNRN / INSG / PFMS / AMM
I have a feeling that if you were short the S&P then he would have come out and said he was gonna stop raising rates....
WHAT IS GREENSPAN DOING???
today the fed goes +25 bp on fed funds like expected, but unfortunately the statement got even more hawkish saying the fed is likely to raise rates at a "measured pace" and will remove policy accomodation at a pace that is measured, on top of that the fed has elevated their worries about short run inflation and the need to keep measured and move towards a neutral rate...
leading up to the announcement 10yr note rates moved back over 400 bp but after the announcement the market took it down by about 7 bp indicating traders getting more nervous about the economic future w/ greenspan hell bent on driving short term rates up, for a brief time today we had some small inversions down around the 2 3 and 5 yrs... this just goes to show bond traders were not buying the long end on the lack of inflation threat but rather the fact that the market perceives the fed as determined to tighten up money supply and get the core interest rates back to 'neutral'
so is greenspan on his path to flipping the curve and stalling growth or his he simply try to get ahead of the inflation the government numbers are hiding and trying to keep the market on the wrong side of the inflation trade keeping rates low and giving him the room to tighten, but maybe greenspan is taking another perspective? housing is the new tech bubble and Greenspan is trying to kill the housing bubble by pushing the cost of funds up, but ironically these actions are forcing traders to take 10yr and 30yr rates down pushing mortgage rates even lower and sparking a new wave of refis and purchases...
but if you look at the breakdown of mortgage products youll see how prevelant interest only ARMs are becoming as the real estate speculators "cheap money"... therefore if greenspan can get those short term rates up it will move ARM rates(< 1yr) up and help cool the speculative chunk of the mortgage market while long rates continue lower and give fixed rate mortgages(safe money) the edge....
either way you look at it....hes walking a fine line
GWGOE OPSW NOVT PGCN FWLTZ ELC MMIC SGH PPKI
markets seem illiquid here, watch out for a pronounced move one way or another as it could trigger some stop outs into a thin market
EUR/USD sees a 1.2113 HOD after breaking that key 1.2080 and putting in some large reversal candles, 1.2020 looks like its gonna be hard to get thru, and there is shorterm support 1.2060 and 1.2045, on top of that greenspan speaking tomorrow and i think market has already priced in +25 bp and continued hawkishness(or atleast greenspan has got the market believing that) so any sign of dovishness from the fed will be USD negative, bonds sold off today as 10yr traded over 400 bp earlier indicating traders preparing for this relatively determined fed, could we get a blink and a pause next meeting? even if we do will the EU and UK follow suite making the relative USD weakness play in EUR/USD moot, who knowsss, lol
EUR/USD trades to 1.2079 and gets rejected...again
ive found that using Boll. with Macd works well, i find it alot easier to just follow the trend and use the Bollis and MACD as confirmation, forex has alot of momentum behind it and its really tough to call bottoms and tops imo...
i use fibs in the shorterm as guides only, longterm trends are shifted by unpredictable marcoeconomic and geopolitcal variables and will usually invalidate normal fib support/resistance, on weekly chart you can see the type of support that was tested in the 1.19's and that level will be seen as very important to these big spec. players who hold huge leveraged positions and to those writing big PUTs in the options market whom would prefer to see that level hold and keep those options out the money...
just go into the paltalk room...
I agree the Euro will need to correct against the USD and JPY, the only question is will EUR/USD test som BIG stops in the 1.19's, you've got some big macro guys still looking for a continued move, hedge funds that still have USD shorts and wont be able to take much more pain, large Euro PUTS that need protecting, and rumors of some pick players like Buffet with stops down there...
support has been tested a couple times @ 1.20 and only breached it once for a quick minute, this level will bring alot of players into the market but will have alot of $ on both sides of the trade... medium term the fundamental issues behind 'cheap' dollar trend has not changed, Euro zone has just had its own political troubles and economic shortcomings so alot got stuck on the wrong side of that big USD short trade and had to unwind pushing us to this point, now that most of the 'pros' are calling for EUR/USD 1.10 i think its time we start looking to get long for a longer term trade, lol
all i wanted to say is instant message me when you get into the next %200 gainer... lol
some more $ behind it wont hurt :)
EUR/USD got rejected off 1.2080, thats the number to watch, USD/JPY dragging higher thru stops giving some broad strength to USD, as much as USD looks overdone the EURO has made a pronounced move and theres probably some big $ looking to push stops and key support under the 1.2040 level in EUR/USD and 132.40 in EUR/JPY, im just gonna stay on sidelines til i see a move thru the stops or break of that 1.2080 level on EUR/USD
ha, ya beer is key...
i think the board has had more posts in the last 2 days than it has in the last 2 months...
it just depends on the relative value between the EUR and the CHF... rarely will their be any type of true arbitrage between two pairs(and with the spread it wouldnt matter), if you think one pair should out/underperform the other u better off trading EUR/CHF
1.2075/80 is the level im watching to confirm reversal, otherwise i think we get some downard churning/consolidation around the 1.2040 mark