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Oh I think the Babe (Max Tribble who will be Max Trouble for ATVI) is very busy making sure WDDD crushes ATVI!
Susman didn't even use Max Tribble on this one Parker Folse was lead counsel. Max must only work the 9 digit cases or those that are over $100MM!
Another Susman Godfrey patent victory http://www.telecompaper.com/news/two-way-media-wins-usd-275-mln-in-patent-suit-against-atandt--932776
This is another blog by Trader Mark that tryz found yesterday. He is calling for the next breakout to take us to 57¢.
WDDD, Act 3
This week we continued to see upward momentum in WDDD. The stock opened at 41.86 cents on Monday, hit a new 52 week high of 48.8 cents on Tuesday following the anticipated breakout above its prior resistance level, and closed the week at 46.2 cents on 4.8 million traded shares. Overall the stock appreciated by a respectable 10.37% in the last week. The latest chart is shown below, highlighting the anticipated breakout from its prior trading range and the ascending triangle that has started to form during the last few days.
Triangles are particular trading patterns that start at the widest point and as the market continues to trade in a sideways pattern its range narrows, forming the point of the triangle. The lower line of the triangle is the new support line, which is the point where the buyers are exceeding the sellers, so the stock price is rising. The top line of the triangle represents resistance, where investors are selling to take profits.
The figure above shows details the characteristics of an ascending triangle that has formed on the WDDD chart this week, which is very bullish, indicating a continuation of the current uptrend. This pattern shows that buyers are initially unable to push the stock price higher through the resistance line, and in fact the stock may have to take a few runs at it before breaking through resistance in order to establish new highs. For this an increase in the trading volume is needed, which is not happening at the moment so this pattern is likely to continue into next week. Once a breakout does occur buyers will aggressively send the stock price higher, but this may take a while yet as new buyers are likely to take a position once the price succeeds in breaking through the top line of the triangle (new resistance) with increased volume. When this does happen though we should see the stock price rise to an amount that is equivalent to the widest section of the triangle, which in this case would drive the price up to about 57 cents.
http://relengineer.wordpress.com/2013/03/23/wddd-act-3/
I think we will get half way there by the hearing date 6-27 maybe higher depending on what the news looks like coming out. Then depending on how markman goes and the final outcome it could fly much higher than $2.50.
Nice article but the 20.9% he referred to was Vringo specific and no baring on ATVI. But again shows a very conservative estimate. In the Markman Hearing both sides will try show how valuable WDDD's patents are to ATVI. If the judge / jury find their value limited it may go to a ratio such as Vringo, however if as I believe the patents are critical to ATVI throw the 20.9% out the window and just roll with the whole enchilada!
Imagine that news that estimates the total reward WDDD will get! This is huge and as word gets out no doubt going into Markman in a few months under $1 is hard to imagine.
Great job tryz!
Figure absolute epic worst case scenario of only 1% of $2B per year rising to $3B in 2016. Would equal over $250MM to WDDD. This assumes damages not trebled, only applies to these 2 titles COD & WOW, other patents that we got since the suit was filed are worthless and the other 2/3 of the MMORPG don't infringe at all.
Easy to see much much higher when the dust clears.
As CB points out Vringo and Worlds are very similar. Here is what happened to Vringo when the first article came out stating the size of their potential patent case against Google.
Monday, April 2, 2012, 4:58 PM Shares of development-stage mobile phone software maker Vringo (VRNG +87.9%) nearly doubled today, apparently thanks to a weekend article by TechCrunch’s James Altucher, in which he argues VRNG might stand to gain billions of dollars in a patent suit against Google (GOOG +0.9%) that could send shares of the search giant "to $0."
I think ATVI will stand to collect hundreds of millions and will have a similar pop when we get that first estimate of the amounts WDDD stands to get from the entire MMORPG industry.
Need to get in before 50¢ falls because it will rip into the 60¢ range very quickly.
Found this surfing a little while going over the Louisville beat down they just gave Colorado State.
This was a comment under the article Princeton wrote 11 days ago and we should all be looking forward to this case's outcome:
By Jorgemtorres:
Since you posted the article, the Federal Circuit has granted a petition for rehearing en banc in a case in which it's going to revisit the Cybor standard of review for claim construction. If the court starts giving trial judges more deference on cc rulings, I think your thesis about Markman-as-catalyst will be strengthened. Markman rulings (and the price movements that accompany them) will likely have more staying power in world where a trial judge's Markman "findings" are accorded even a modicum of deference. The case is Lighting Ballast Control LLC v. Philips Electronics North America Corp. et al., Nos. 2012-1014, -1015 (Fed. Cir. Mar. 15, 2013).
Princeton's response:
Yes this case is very material to your point and to the future of judicial impact on claim construction. I was not aware of this case but I will be following it closely now. Many thanks for the note.
Link to story
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1268281-the-markman-hearing-coronation-of-potential-patent-kings
Go Sparty I want you to hang around long enough to get a good look at Russdiculous.
Weekend news? Clock is ticking and the fuse has been lit! I expect someone to post a logical argument supporting a multi-hundred million $ settlement sometime over the next 2-3 days. Maybe mid week next week but it is sure as hellfire's coming. I wouldn't want to be a spectator when that happens. I wan to participate.
Everyone have a great NCAA basketball weekend!
Absolutely, just a few days ago we were 10¢ lower which was a 15%-20% move. This will take a few days to digest before the next run begins. You watch the tape everyday. Tons of buyers + very few sellers = higher prices. The clock is ticking and just 10-12 weeks from now on 6-26-13 the price will be much much higher than now.
What do WDDD's patents cover?
According to CEO Thom Kidrin
“System and Method for Enabling Users to Interact in a Virtual Space”
Which is obviously the most vital part of playing a game online.
As stated in the Forbes article:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/johngaudiosi/2012/04/13/worlds-inc-explains-why-its-suing-activision-blizzard-over-world-of-warcraft-and-call-of-duty/
I will dig up the #'s but basically its 2% of COD & WOW revenue which comes to approx $40MM per year today. Years prior to 2012 would be less but year a out to as far as 2021 would be higher. Figured $600 million for total time and cut $100 million for settlement and you get $500MM.
This is not treble'd as that would be much higher. Also COD & WOW are only half of ATVI's rev, and there full rev is only 1/3 of the total MMORPG industry. The amounts it could get to are mind blowing.
Weak hands giving shares away is alright just gives us or new longs a good buy in point. Lots of buyers hoping for a dip to .44. Doubt they get it.
Yes and I anticipate someone doing just that very soon. Right now we have about a $25MM settlement priced in. By all accounts it will be far higher than that. That news will be followed by our assault on the $1/sh level. I would be careful of trading until we hit that level.
5 Stages of WDDD on the path to making dozens of millionaires and we are in stage #1
1) Pre-Markman Hearing. Facts begin to flow in to help determine size of potential settlement and likelihood of reaching that settlement. So far HUGE settlement amounts and extremely likely WDDD will pass this first test. IMO Price $1.00-$1.50
2) Markman Hearing just like a good poker player with pocket aces ATVI will not fully understand how strong our case is against them until this hearing. This is the time Max Tribble plays with ATVI's team like a master chess champion playing against a preschooler. WDDD has 8 patents and 59 claims of infringement against ATVI. The playing field is so large it's very hard to imagine ATVI proving beyond any doubt we have no case on at least 1 of those claims. Once trial is granted off to stage 3. IMO price $2.50-$3.00
3) Pre-Trial against ATVI or pre-settlement from ATVI. Mad price swings as news, PACERs and opinions debate just how much ATVI will have to pay. If willfulness can be proved amounts may soar into the $500MM-$1B range. Traders rule this time as fluctuations will make you sick or happy and sometimes both during the same day. IMO Price $2.00-$6.00
4) Post settlement or post trial when actual amounts have been paid or discussed and the realization that ATVI could be just 33% of the total amount possible pool of $. WDDD pays special dividends based on the award from ATVI and files suit against the rest of the MMORPG industry. IMO Price $5.00-$10.00
5) WDDD has collected all the money possible from their patent litigation and has paid a huge chunk of those rewards back to shareholders but maintains a large cash reserve and begins the next stage of its life moving into new fields, acquiring other patents or selling off to a larger player. IMO price $5.00 after divs have been distributed.
Buyers who think they are late to the game need to understand we are just in the 1st inning of this and there is plenty of time left to make tons of $$$$$$$$$$.
Newbie who is has been in the Vringo saga also has a position in WDDD and he spells out the wide range in potential settlements WDDD may get on a Vringo message board.
"Several people have performed back-of-the-napkin calcs on potential damages. In fact, EDVA, princetonATTY44, and myself have all come up with ~$500M -- but the kicker is that we all used different assumptions, so I would venture to say that it was simply coincidence that led us each to arrive at this $500M number.
And that is precisely the obstacle we face at this point in time: Not simply a news vacuum, but an entire vacuum of any type of info at all. But this is simply par for the course when a company is still months away from a Markman hearing.
Until the claims construction is hammered out, no one -- not even Kidrin -- has any clue what the scope of infringing products and related damages will be.
But, all the key metrics are already available for you (anyone, really) to begin calculating low and high ends. But you will find that the gap in between is so vast that it is truly unhelpful at best. For example:
For the Royalty Base, you can be conservative and say that it will only apply to the COD/WOW titles. Based on historical numbers, these 2 titles comprised ~52% of ATVI's ~$4B of annual revenues. For the high-end, you can assume that the claims construction will permit a broad enough definition that all of ATVI's titles will be deemed infringing, therefore all $4B is to be used.
For the RR, there are not many comparable cases on this specific type of software, so we have no clue what a reasonable RR is. You can be conservative and apply 1.0% or aggressive and apply 5%.
For the claim on willfulness, you can be conservative and keep the RR untrebled, or you can be aggressive and treble it.
For the legal contingency, you can be conservative and assume 50%, or you can be aggressive and assume it will only be 30%.
For the O/S count, you can use the 82M currently outstanding, or you can be more conservative and use the full 100M that are authorized.
Also related to the Royalty Base, you can presume that there will be no growth over the patent life, or you can factor in a 10-15% annual growth rate.
In addition, you can assume that only ATVI's revenues will be on the table, or you can be aggressive and factor in a premium to reflect the fact that ATVI's $4B in current year revenues represents only 33% of the $12B for the MMORPG industry in total, and that WDDD will be getting a piece of the entire $12B.
Or, you can forget all of the above and simply just assume that the "smart money" that the big investors have brought to the table (and hopefully will continue to bring more to the table) is already aware that settlement is the likely outcome and have already set their own price targets based upon a settlement of $xxxM, which bears no real relationship whatsoever to any of the damages factors highlighted above!
The point to all this is simply that it is easy to compute a potential damages number, but the assumptions are still so much in flux that the potential resulting sp that results from thiese calcs will range from less than $1 all the way to $40+. All interesting to look at and think about -- but completely inactionable pieces of information.
The bottom line is that in the absence of concrete info/facts, it does not matter what YOU think the damages amount and impact on the sp will be -- it only matters what the masses of other investors believe it will be, so your best bet is to think like a TUT and try to value it the way "smart money" will value it -- and not by using the silly pie in the sky assumptions that retail investors typically use."
News as in someone is working on breaking down the potential damages, which are huge, as this is still unknown to most investors. Also someone is working on scope and significance of the patents, which are critical and go way beyond COD & WOW IMO. The story is just in its first chapters but so much has happened already. JoeN, Princeton and EDVA have giant positions in WDDD not because they are "working a P&D" but because they know the potential value of WDDD is 10X-15X higher than the current price.
Reasons settlement will be in the several hundred million $ range and strength of our case was spelled out when Susman Godfrey and Max Tribble took the case. These guys don't miss around with low dollar cases and specialize in giant settlements.
Last week we got word that institutions & billionaires are building positions. Once this "smart money" gets their positions built the facts of how lucrative this company is will start hitting the wires and bring with it tons of volume and huge runs in the price. Right now they are accumulating these positions which is why traders who sell now get left behind and are forced to buy higher or sit on the sidelines and watch or run to $1.
Etrade would have to raise his bid to .49 to get his order filled. If he waits till tomorrow it will be .50.
News could hit tonight/tomorrow and he won't get in until the mid .50's.
As long as we break $1.00 by 6-26 I am thrilled!
What your deal sell at .24 and want back in?
I have also heard the Vringo rumor. I think Vringo wishes they could buy WDDD but right now price would be too high for Vringo to buy us.
Come on Etrade been their for 2 days just bite the bullet and get on board the WDDD choo choo train.
ATVI is cash rich has no debt and just like all the other companies management wants to cash in on their stock options by maximizing EPS. Cutting a check for WDDD to go away is more likely in my opinion, but either way its a huge victory for WDDD and will create dozens of WDDD millionaires.
I understand that and RR will be awarded. But they can be included in a settlement to make that check hugemongous! I want several zerooooooo's on my settlement check. Willful infringement for previous years and running royalties all wrapped up in 1 check with 9 0's would be great!
There will, hopefully, be no running royalties. We just want ATVI to write one big giant check for everything. That way we get 8 years of royalties in one big azz div.
Awesome knowing you are sitting on a 10+ bagger isn't it!
FNMA getting clobbered. Pure pump and dump. WDDD no P&D just a great value on its way to multiples upon multiples higher. A steal under $1!
Wild ride here! over at WDDD it just goes up and up and up
Only approx 60k between here and .50
The volume is weak because 1 the float is tiny, and 2 nobody I selling. Etrade's been trying to get in for 3 days now. I am sure he is pissed off his bid today would have been filled yesterday morning. He needs to bite the bullet and raise his bid to .48 or he won't get filled again today.
Etrade up to .46 now. He could push this all the way to .51 hisself.
Make sure you read the comments due to seeking alpha policy they were unable to put the ticker symbol in the article and the article could not be fully about WDDD v ATVI just partially or they wouldn't post the article.
As I stated yesterday look for the next article on WDDD v ATVI to have some damages / settlement / royalty estimates. This is basically an unknown and currently the stock has approx a $30MM settlement priced in. This is very low and could be 10X - 15X that much. Also ATVI is only part of the available money as the MMORPG industry is 3X what the ATVI portion is. ATVI is the largest player which is why they were targeted with this suit. Beat the big guy and everyone else will just settle.
News on Estimated settlement / damages / royalties will be hitting very soon. If we aren't already over .50 by then this will send us over that. This is a simple math equation. Whatever the total reward is divided by the odds that reward will happen. Right now we feel great about the odds of getting past Markman and onto the next stage very high 75%-80%. Once we can get a good working reward $ amount we will be able to fine tune the price we should be at on 6-26. My guess now is $1-$1.5 PPS, but that can and will change with more info. Hopefully someone will dig into the scope of the patents beyond what we know now and see how important our patents are to the success of the infringer. Right now they look critical or extremely important to ATVI. Also do we have concrete proof of willful infringement. These will gives us great power when negotiations begin. Willful infringement on critical patents will make dozens of us WDDD millionaires.
Someone play some Whitney Houston because that's how I feel about WDDD "I Will Always Love You"
Etrade been trying to buy for 2 days. $95,000. He needs to quit waiting for someone to come down or he'll chase it all the way to .50.
There are very few sellers and a huge wave a buyers. Like how no one is dropping to the bid. Make them slap that ask! Whoever flinches first gets the best deal!