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LMAO - Go! Drop! Boo!
What does it mean when bad news comes out and it doesn't drop?
Bottom seems like a good possibility.
API U.S. oil inventories show larger-than-expected rise: reports
11:59 a.m. Today - By MarketWatch
API U.S. oil inventories show larger-than-expected rise: reports NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 8.9 million barrels in the week ended Feb. 20, the American Petroleum Institute said in its weekly tally, according to analysts and news reports on Tuesday. Analysts surveyed by Platts had forecast crude stocks to rise 3.7 million barrels. The trade group put total U.S. crude inventories at 437 million barrels. Distillates fell by 2.4 million barrels to 126.3 million, while gasoline stocks fell by 1.6 million to 229.7 million barrels, reports said. The Energy Information Administration's more closely-watched energy inventory report is due Wednesday morning.
Sold at $3.05 this morning looking for some cheap shares tonight or tomorrow.
Per last PR the CEO is working on several options. 1 of which is financing. The others are JV and property sales.
I will remind everyone that 95% of the work is finished therefore 95% of the costs are also behind them. Only a small infusion is needed to begin mining.
Impossible. All that you need to do is go back to the last time they took shares.
Possibly if you assume every single share sold was sold from a converter and not one other person was able to sell any you could get close to them having sold all their shares.
Very doubtful that scenario has happened.
All of them are pretty much loaded up already. It will take some time to wind the conversions up. Let's hope not before late March and the Ruby reopening.
Yeah the API report may be fantastic tonight. They estimated something very wrong last week so an adjustment this week could show a much lower addition than previous weeks.
Oil looking great this morning. Hope to sell my trading portion around $3.50 today. Holding my core and adding to it with each successful trade.
Lowtrade,
Any unintended consequences with UWTI? It's 100% April WTI futures. The volume is larger than anything else in the market now today close to 100M shares. More volume forces more futures purchases.
Could this tilt the market in the opposite way by overloading one side of a trade?
OPEC needs to come out and say if the U.S. stays serious about reductions they will also reduce. They would only need to reduce a small amount to set this off.
Those $2.89's I picked up today looking good!
Reuters: U.S. shale oil crash diet likely to bring forward lower production http://www.seekingalpha.com/news/2317276
Sounds like a politician. Demand isn't decreasing it's just not growing as fast as it had been in the past.
Also 2014 was the LOWEST year for new reserves found in the last 60 years. Once shale oil is gone say hello to $200 oil.
Nonsense. If oil hits $100.00 in 12 months UWTI will be up so many bags "beta slippage" won't matter in the least. 500% minimum.
Perhaps with no slippage it would be up 525%, I can live with the 25% less.
Plus there is always a chance the price rises so fast we get premiums on the way up where 500% becomes 700% just like DWTI did on the way down.
No all that longs need to know is that oil will be $100.00/barrel sometime in the next 6-12 months.
100% false he sold out months ago.
100% nonsense.
Nonsense, U.S. production just needs to slow down. If U.S. production dropped at all oil would sky to $70.00 in a week.
If you agree then why try to sell storage capacity will run out?? Ridiculous argument.
Took a nibble premarket. See what happens this week.
Another week closer to reopening the Ruby.
Longs have a good week.
Capacity is meaningless.
Scare tactics don't work on crude. You could scare everyone who reads this board into selling all the crude and crude related stocks they own and it wouldn't move crude by 1¢.
The trend in the U.S. and worldwide is reducing drilling and exploration to raise the price. Simply follow this trend for the next 6-8 months and profit. Once reduced drilling causes reduced production UWTI will take off. Until then play the trading range.
Yeah just think what will happen when the second group of 300M Chinese begin buying gold. So far only the top 300M have any gold.
NBRI and the Ruby mine will mine gold over $5,000.00/ounce. It might take 10-15 more years to get the price of gold that high but the Ruby will still be mining gold for decades.
Hope everyone has noticed that most of the brokerages calling oil lower also have several bullish calls on oil producers. If they truly thought oil was going to $30.00 why would they recommend buying any oil producer now?
If the price drops lower it sets up the V shaped recovery. If $43.00 was the bottom we could be in for a U shaped recovery. More money made in a shorter time in a V shaped recovery so it's obvious that is what they want.
Jay,
Sounds like my plan. Which 2 producers? EOG and??
That's old data from Jan for international. Bullish for oil yes but not what I was hopin for.
Totals are coming down though. Texas down from 800's to the 500's.
-48 not good enough for me. -46 horizontal rigs which is good. Still bullish for oil but I get the feeling it won't be good enough today.
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9NTcwMjI3fENoaWxkSUQ9MjcxMjI0fFR5cGU9MQ==&t=1
Volume is huge great ready for a wild ride. -80 rigs or better and I will hold.
The show doesn't start until 1:00PM.
http://gis.bakerhughesdirect.com/Reports/StandardReport.aspx
Uh I don't know what you are looking at by my link shows data through 2-13-15.
Notice how there is no "spike".
Just a smooth rise over time.
Nonsense.
Again your storage spike in historical terms is bogus:
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRSFUS1&f=M
The strategic petroleum reserve can hold another +30M more barrels. The U.S. won't run out of storage room for oil.
LMAO
Look at your storage spike in historical terms.
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WTTSTUS1&f=W
Now look at products created from that crude. Graphs look pretty similar over time. Seems like we are using that extra storage.
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WRPUPUS2&f=W
That small green candle at the end shows how the recovery is barely out of the gate. Long way to go and many trades to make along the way back to $100.00.
NBRI will get the gold this year. Spring is coming fast in the west.
Someone wake me up when any actual news hits.
They both have been great for trading. Just happy they don't come out on the same day .
The inventory report caused a sell off two weeks ago that lasted 2 days.
Last week's inventory report release occurred right at the bottom and 10 seconds later oil was higher.
This week's inventory report bottom was at the market opening 1.5 hours before the report was released.
Keep adjusting your trading. If oil moves higher I look for the inventory report to have more of an impact cause another 1-2 day selloff only at a higher level. If oil goes lower it will have little if any impact.
Jay,
Nice post, you are able to tell someone they are wrong far better than I can.
Have you traded any DWTI lately or just UWTI?
UGAZ may go through this type of cycle in a few weeks once the Nat gas rigs begin shutting down. So far very few gas rigs have been removed from the field.
Sell before or after rig count report is the only question. The report has been excellent for 3 weeks so no reason to think week 4 won't be.
If we see $4.00 prior to report, at 1:00PM EST, I think I will sell half my trading portion.
The next $5.00 jump in crude will prolly happen all at once and this report could be the catalyst for that.
LMAO So your argument is when oil was $100.00/barrel oil companies were drilling "turd" wells? Now that oil has dropped 50% they are only drilling the good stuff?? Seriously??
Fascinating how some folks are bought into $30 oil claims from places loading up on cheap oil before the next leg up.
As far as rig count goes most of the reductions have been from horizontal rigs drilling shale wells. Nobody should be foolish enough to think any of those rigs were drilling "turd" wells as you claim.
Shorts have been wrong for the first $7-$8 of this bottom. Wont be long and they will miss the next $7-$8.
Nonsense, the new wells being turned on right now were drilled in Jan. You know when the rig count began to drop rapidly and was already well under 2013 levels by that time.
Maybe I am wrong and oil will keep going down?
Oh wait a second I am not wrong and the price of oil has been rising which shows that lower production is coming very soon.
Tomorrow afternoon 1:00 PM EST.
See the trend in the graph at the bottom of the page.
http://gis.bakerhughesdirect.com/Reports/StandardReport.aspx
Another 75-80 rigs off line will put the total near 700 so far. Each rig removes about 800 BOD per month in initial 30 day production. So 700 missing rigs now will be 560,000 less barrels per day pumped 30 days from now. Take half that number for the second month due to lower 30-60 day production so 60 days out the current rig count is removing +800,000 BOD.
Plus the rig count removal will keep rising for the next few months so 60 days out production in the U.S. alone could be down well over 1M barrels per day and dropping.
Now hold until after rig count report and repeat next week.
BTW our total storage 425M barrels, excluding SPR, is about 22 days of oil consumption for the U.S..
122,000 less barrels per day than LAST WEEK!