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Any idea what the crux of her bear argument is? Her twitter feed is locked and you need her permission to see her tweets.
I would love to see a well reasoned bear argument that isn't easily torn apart. AF's arguments are worthless, and BioSage got picked apart as well.
I can't seem to find any of her arguments without subscribing directly to her twitter feed.
Where do you guys figure the bottom of this retracement is? A 50% from 2 dollar lows and 9 highs would put it in the 5s. That's an discomforting thought...
9m+ was a typo, you are correct, it should be 9k+. That's what happens when you write a post at 3am after hours of research :)
But like Drano said, it only takes a few shares to walk the price down to start triggering stop losses. If you look at the NASDAQ trade by trade, a lot of the significant drops down (3 to 4 cents at a time) came from these ridiculously fast 100 share trades (HFTs no doubt). Somebody with a machine walked it right downwards, selling into low ball GTCs to trigger a cascade of waiting stop losses.
Yes, one would probably end up with a loss for the day using this strategy, but in the long run it will save/make a lot of money given the opportunity to flip a heavily short holding into a long one.
Also, if someone were just holding onto all those calls, the open interest would be near 10k. Last time I checked it was around 2k. Those calls got exercised.
This is all IMVHO, FWTFIW. There are definitely holes in the hypothesis (if you can even call it that, given it's not really testable), but I do believe it approximates what really happened.
B
And no doubt a lot of those short positions got covered on the way down. I'd really like to see some up to the minute short % stats from the past few days and today. Anybody know where to get them?
Alright. After researching all day, I've come to the following conclusion. Yes, this was a blatant, manipulative bear raid. However, the bears simply used what was already available to orchestrate the crash.
Step 1: Buy 9000+ deep ITM calls (yesterday).
Step 2: Exercise options, so 9m+ shares are in account, giving you tons of shares without raising the PPS.
Step 3: Using level 3 info, start selling shares at the low ball GTC bids. It seems a lot of folks had $7 - 8 GTC bids hanging there just in case, and whoever orchestrated this sold right to them. This caused the next part, which is really brilliant...
Step 4: Selling into low ball GTC bids coincides with an incredible series of pre-existing stop losses in the $7 -8 area..
Step 5: The real landslide hits, with stop losses and continuous low ball selling rolling the PPS down to $6.17 within minutes.
Step 6: Accumulate super cheap long shares all the way down from stop losses, and all the way back up from $6.17.
At 13:40:53pm, just as the 5 minute halt came to a close and trading resumed, NASDAQ shows an immediate, singular 300,000+ share order @ 6.7/share, totaling around $2m of capital moved. Somebody had a 2 million dollar bid just waiting at the $6 level. It is the first trade registered right as trading resumed. Check it out for yourselves on NASDAQ. All the other singular orders during the day didn't even cross 10,000 at once. Most are in the hundreds or single thousands. The only single trade all day that reached 6 digits at once was this one, waiting right at the bottom.
So, in short, the bears used stocks gained from exercised options, pre-existing low-ball GTC orders, and stop losses to pull the price all the way down to the low sixes, where a $2m order was waiting.
They basically used retail investors' own strategies against us. I know a lot of folks put in low ball GTC orders just in case, and tons more had stop losses all the way down to $6. This coincides precisely with Roth Capital's defense of what really happened today: stop losses and retail panicking. The bears just had to light a fire to the tinder, and the whole thing blew up in smoke within seconds.
A lot of people got robbed today, legally. Unreal. But brilliantly executed...
Awesome thanks.
Verify with a link please.
Probably not a bad call. The APPY test has got a good market niche for it to fill, and there's no question it's superior to current technology for determining appendicitis safely.
The big question, and the only real reason the PPS is down right now, is whether mgmt can effectively market and sell the thing. If they post some good earnings at the end of this first quarter, and possibly even positive FDA trial results beforehand, I think you'll make good on your investment easily. If you hold all the way til 1Q14 and take advantage of long term capital gains tax rates, you should be able to pull a multi-bagger and only pay 15-20% in taxes.
If I had the cash right now, I'd be long on APPY right there with you. Unfortunately, I don't. However, I'm pretty sure I can make it by the end of 1Q13 here, and that will give me time to see if APPY's mgmt can really push this product out there once earnings are announced in a few months.
Of course there have been numerous biotechs that shoot 4x and go further. At the same time, there have been numerous that multiply in PPS and then tank upon good news. The most recent example is APPY just a few days ago.
Are you saying you're certain positive results aren't baked in? If so, why? Detail your reasoning.
I feel strongly about the statistics here, and would like to bet on positive results.
However, I can't shake the feeling this is a classic buy rumor, sell news situation with much, if not all, of the positive news already baked in. It's already popped over 400% in the past two months.
Thoughts?
Well I'm out as of today. This blasted right through the 2.43 support level, and that's it for me. I see this shooting right back to $2 over the next week.
I see the sell off as caused by these things:
1.) Sell the news traders
2.) Unproven product in the market
3.) Dilution history scaring off long term investors
People sold the news hard yesterday, and because of 2 and 3, the price is continuing to drop. This isn't going to raise again until APPY proves it can market its test effectively and generate profit, the FDA trial completes, and the FDA approves it for marketing in the States. Those catalysts won't be complete until late 2013.
For the long term, getting in around $2 would go well, as long as you feel their product will really sell. I think the FDA trial and approval is a slam dunk, given the results of their previous trials. Honestly, the real big question is whether their test will even sell.
IMHO.
It still baffles me that amidst all this convo about the possibility of accelerated approval, nobody continues to mention that the FDA clearly stated Ampligen is "not appropriate" for accelerated approval!
Why? They used clinical endpoints instead of surrogates!
Convince me this still has even the remotest chance on Feb 2nd.
I see this being unavailable until HEB finally gets its shit together and provides data that surpasses high school standards.
Looks like I should have followed my instincts on this one. CE Mark was bakes in since Dec 12th 2012. Hardcore selling on the news today. Only remaining hope is to at least break even in the short term.
Sigh... Someone remind me to listen to myself next time.
I'd be jumping for joy too, except that the AH market is still suspiciously quiet. If this stock is supposed to pop on news, why isn't AH blowing up right now? I'd expect the major movements to hit post or pre market...?
Tomorrow morning will certainly shed some light. I got an odd feeling this isn't going to pop like most said it will... call me pessimistic :)
Well that's interesting. I was reading another theory that mgmt is so confident because Tdox causes hair loss, and they could visibly see increased hair loss in patients where Tdox was working.
I didn't quite buy it. Your suggestion sounds a bit more plausible. Count me in the bull argument.
I don't think I've ever seen two bulls argue the same side of the debate so heatedly.
At least you're both bullish :)
I don't know about that man. It was clearly stated by an FDA rep in the AdCom that Ampligen "is not appropriate" for accelerated approval because HEB used clinical endpoints in their studies instead of surrogates.
It sounds ridiculous, but everything I've read on acc app law supports that statement; the entire thing is designed around surrogate endpoint trials. If a company used clinical endpoints and still couldn't demonstrate efficacy, then it's just a no go. All surrogate endpoints do is shorten and facilitate trial time. They're basically easier to achieve for a small biopharma company with limited resources.
However, there are some vague clauses that allow for acc app for trials with clinical endpoints under certain conditions. I can't recall the details, but it gives HEB a slim, and I mean SLIM, chance.
That positive safety vote was huge, but I'm not sure the bureaucrats at the FDA will overlook HEB's use of clinical endpoints instead of surrogates.
Anybody here more familiar with the law and this process able to chip in? Anybody? Bueller?? Bueller...?
I really, really hope you're right. The fiscal cliff fiasco + complete lack of news from APPY suggests to me this AH trade is a sign of things to come on Wednesday. Somebody had to agree to sell their shares at that low price, which means there is a serious loss of confidence floating out there.
I can't imagine anyone in their right mind would let go of their shares at that low of a price right now, given the seeming inevitability of the CE mark, which makes me hope it's just a fluke or an old trade that got posted late.
I remember reading that premarket trades can get accidentally posted as AH trades. Maybe that's what happened here.
I just seriously hope to something divine this isn't about to take a hardcore nosedive.
Anybody got a reasoned explanation for this ridiculous AH movement?
How the f did someone manage to drop the share price 15% after hours on a 317 share trade??? What am I missing?
Thanks for the info. That makes sense of the company's PR releases at least.
The remaining question then is why hasn't the share price shot up already, even after hours, if the CE is a slam dunk and is pending within a week? If it's supposed to pop as much as the folks here say, and it's effectively guaranteed at this point, what's with the delay in the PPS going far north?
I should think the PPS would have the CE mark baked in already by the end of trading yesterday.
Wait a second. They just filed for the CE mark on the 21st, and are claiming they will still get it approved before the end of the year? In 9 days?? How is that even possible? What am I missing?
Any idea how long the CE mark approval process generally takes? It seems APPY was claiming they'd have full CE approval by the end of 2012, but instead have just barely managed to file before 2012 ends.
90 days from filing maybe? Google has provided little help on answering that question,
Komaroff was also signed on to HEB's board of directors in 2003! The man freakin' worked for Hemispherx for the love of god!
That's one slam dunk positive vote right there. Starting to feel better about holding onto these shares...
Tomorrow is going to be INTENSE.
Does anybody know if the ADCOM members can even vote for accelerated approval? Aren't they just voting on traditional full approval, and then it's up to the FDA on Feb 2nd to grant accelerated approval or not?
It seems like we would get a positive vote if voting for accelerated approval is actually an option. If the ADCOM members are restricted to voting solely for traditional approval or not, then the vote will surely be negative.
Yes, I read that. However, what I read also said stocks are only halted for about an hour at a time. I haven't seen anything confirming that the stock will be halted from 9:30 - 4.
Haha.
I did my DD, then I got my a$$ handed to me yesterday, just like everybody else. I've been long since September. That briefing doc was painfully bad.
I'm considering selling now, expecting a dip early tomorrow morning, and getting back in then.
I would sure hate to miss the boat though.
Thoughts?
Brilliant post.
Anyone holding through adcom still? Or is everyone out? I am debating escaping in the next 30 minutes. What to do what to do...
Anybody know the investment thesis behind AF's IGC 100% play? Can't seem to find any news anywhere.