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Ummm.
"Sole source contracts have become more controversial (particularly those awarded to Blackwater and Halliburton for support in the War in Iraq) and have come under increased scrutiny. The Obama administration and Office of Management and Budget (OMB) have tried to discourage sole source contract use."
Sounds like current administration a little vindictive over past administration contractors.
I wonder if they consider APDN a "small dissadvantaged" contractor?
I was all ready to flip on this latest pump but was away from the computer the afternoon it spiked in the last hour, then had grand daughter the following morning so missed any opportunity. Oh well, to bad so sad, nothing lost. I don't think the "Magic" guy will try again until 10K. He probably is opperating on the edge of the law and getting away with it so far (JMO). Otherwise I think APDN would have been floating around where it is now based on what I see. From here I certainly see a double resulting from Dec report, perhaps even more. Lot's of shares out there (640k) or this would rocket to the moon (on flip side if not for previous dilution to finance APDN would have been a ton of debt which would probably have same effect).
My original game plan for trading was to not hold stocks but get in and out fast and make a little at a time to grow my account. I was very foolish on an ethanol stock and held and held thinking good things would happen, losing way too much of my investment. Finally wised up and escaped after a spike, still losing big. I am very comfortable sticking with APDN since $.15 fully expecting to gain all my losses back from my ethanol debacle, then I will gravitate back to my original strategy. To my credit, I would say that I only had losses on two stocks (one being the ethanol one) so my strategy was sound, just needed to stick to it.
IMO I think we have seen the last pump before Dec report so now may be the time for patience until then. For sure stock will go up dramatically on 4th qtr numbers as well as outlook. Then we can make a move to take some off the table and work some other stocks until the next qtr nears. I admire you wealthy guys who are willing to sink so much into a single stock, all indications are that you will have a tremendous payoff here. I am sure you all diversify, which is good.
Silly,
I haven't posted for awhile, but your post intrigues me. If you have enough to have a position of 100,000 shares you must have already established a trading pattern for yourself. I am much smaller than that so I am just holding until report in Dec.
If I had 100,000 shares I would be very tempted to swing trade as often as my broker would allow, after all each penny swing is a thousand dollars. In my case I can only have two trades a week but I would love $2,000 per week income from trading. Hey, if APDN tops a dollar in Dec I WILL be able to capitalize on small movements in price. GLTU
R U sure there is an apples-to-apples here. Like outstanding share count.
ADPN got a mandate under their belt. Must be patient for UA Gov revenue. Revenue for 4th qtr will come from non-US Gov. Revenue for 3rd qtr was well over 500K before mandate news. No reason at all revenue will not double for 4th qtr. Then add a million each qtr after that. For 2013 that's 2+3+4+5= 14MM revenue. Doable, doable, doable!
.60 would give me much pleasure as well as a merry christmas.
I don't think 10 million revenue for 2013 is out of line at all, based on all the activity you all are detailing here on ihub.
You guys sure do dig up a bunch of info on APDN.
Who wants to go out on a limb and guess at share value just after report in December if:
1) 4th qtr revenue is over 1 million.
2) Outlook for fiscal 2013 is 10 to 15 million.
Nope, no mandate revenue yet. But lot's of other stuff from around the globe, as we will see.
AP,
No
The penny pumpers were not very successful this time this week so we did not see the volume or as much of a pop (although I WAS ready to pull the trigger if it happened the way I proposed), I think the market worked against them, and I also think APDN has enough going for it that it is becoming more resistant to the penny stock shinanigans. After December we will be ever so closer to dollar land and penny pumper attention will be exchanged for institutional attention, that will be welcome.
When you think about it, not that many companies are entirely transparent about who specifically their customers are. They just state %'s of sales to how many customers and such. The magic for APDN is going to be the December report. There is no way it can be any less than superb. When I saw the projected revenue from, of all things, a ball point pen maker I was flabergasted. That's just one customer at a million revenue annually. Think about the possible revenue APDN will report for the 4th qtr. Wowsers!
patience AP.
Agree with you bigfish. IMO APDN has sort of gotten into a channel here maybe. The solid trend is up which is good for us longs. But I still contend it is a penny stock so we have to beware of that and go with the manipulated ups and downs. Can't wait till annual report in December to see what I get for Christmas! heehee (or ho ho)
AP,
Monday Aug 20 high of $.16 with volume of 17 million.
Then retraced for a week down to low of $.11.
Monday Sep 24 high of $.30 with volume of 17 million.
Then retraced for a week down to low of $.17.
Monday is Oct 22. See a pattern developing here for perhaps a certain trading opportunity? My father used to say things come in three's. Let's watch and see if this happens. Even blind squirrels get a nut every once in a while. Other's may chime in here and that's okay because I understand no one, not even me, wants to get stuck chasing a stock.
PS: I wouldn't expect this pattern to continue after next week's repeat because in early December we will see a great annual report which will take this to a genuine firmly supported leg up, how much is still the million dollar question.
Seems kinda stupid to short APDN. Lots greener shorting pastures elsewhere.
Well, I really like what I see brewing here. Let's watch this close and see if we see that 17 million volume day coming. To each his/her own trading style but if I can sell at .30 and come back in at .25 I'll be very happy. I am watching close on this one.
Bravo AP. Found the reason for the pop. Wonder if other penny pushers will jump on bandwagon and send this to $.30 today.
$.20 makes me google. er i mean giggle
Maybe we will get another chance soon CAT.
An excellent outlook drives higher stock value. Present revenue validates the outlook. Beating analysts estimates really pops SP.
Silly,
Gov mandate validates the technology. Revenue for this qtr will come from other than US Gov because suppliers will drag their feet as long as they can before implementing.
Why you ask, well because they will be financially held responsible for fixing bad parts. You might find this interesting, but what can now be blamed on possible counterfeit parts entering the system may be in the future determined that the OEM part might just be defective. Could put the OEM in a pickle. Bottom line, the suppliers have to analyse just how much to bump their prices to the Gov to cover risks they now have to take on. $ $ $
Maybe this will have a happy ending. It could go viral and she could end up with several thousand like the school bus monitor bullying a while back.
Thanks for the link Wish. Good stuff.
Looks like standard operating procedure to solicit for multiple vendors to me.
It will just be a fishing expedition because APDN is in the drivers seat and is the gold standard right now.
Even if by chance there is someone out there, my bet is APDN would be primary vendor (80%) and the "whoever" would be second fiddle (20%) just for an alternative standby.
Would get complicated with multiple vendors, multiple methods, multiple readers, etc.
2020, you didn't speculate on a sale of APDN.
The good doctor is more a scientist than a CEO, and has sold a company in the past. He might want to cash in and move on to his next challenge in DNA stuff. Question for you, how much would he want to cash out of APDN, and how soon would he be in the mood?
Love Tucson. Been to that swapmeet.
I suppose Century. The government says it employees the brightest and best and it seems that someone being payed 200 to 300 thousand a year would do their job whether congress impedes them or not. This country needs patriotism from our career government employees, not excuses. There is a difference between a civil servant and a self servant. It seems APDN is stepping up to the patriotic plate and is part of the solution, and that's a good thing.
Not upset, just making a point. GLTA
IMO this so called 4 part plan should have been the plan ALL ALONG. Perhaps some heads should roll in the ranks of government procurement. Lack of oversight on this issue could possibly affect my freedom and liberty by putting USA military at risk!
And yet the suppliers have already had some success at stalling and discussing and kicking the can down the road.
APDN has the mandate, but I am convinced the growth in revenue over the next few quarters will come from sources other than the DLA & DOD, etc. This should not slow APDN's growth and we should still see a handsome payoff here. GLTA
Not bad revenue for one customer. Every 5 to 10 customers is at least a million annually, so each quarter will grow exponentialy. My wild guess is 4th quarter will be close to a million revenue.
Any swags on the gross margin we are looking at? GLTA
We don't want this to behave like a volatile penny stock because we see the bright future coming, but I think we use more wisdom if we always keep in the back of our mind it IS a penny stock for now and expect it to behave that way, stick to our individual trading styles and leave all emotion and greed out of the equation.
The pop from $.13ish to $.27ish was clearly the result of a penny stock pump, so one could fully expect to lose 2/3 to 3/4 even as strong as the prospects are for this stock. I did not grasp that at the time or I would have sold off near the high to buy back in around where we are now, oh well, to bad so sad. No reason to think any thing great will happen until details surface from annual report in December, with the possible exception of another penny pump or some actual contract $ amounts are leaked. I expect APDN to channel between $.17ish and $.20ish for the time being IMO. I am in the green so I am sitting tight and enjoying all the links posted here on IHUB. GLTA
btw, if MM's know good news is coming that will cause a spike you can be sure they will inch the stock down in preparations for lining their pockets during the move up. Vise versa also, they will inch up a stock if they know a major hit is coming. Make no mistake, they cash in when we buy & sell so direction means nothing to them, they make money on the way down & on the way up & on the way down & on the way up &.....
It has always blew my mind that the US government would go along with buying sensitive electronic components from any country, any country, that is not a 100% trusted and reliable ally, as if they are buying a cheap transister radio. It just simply blows my mind, period.
Along with using APDN technology, the sourcing issues with non-trusted entities needs to be addressed pronto! [idiots]
I regress, but just had to say this after reading some of the articles posted here. Good finds posters. GLTA
We are all in this for the money, fair to say.
Let's say a Chinese company offered $10 a share on a buyout, which is far beyond the present value of APDN. We would all gain some extraordinary wealth from it without having to wait for years for this level of payout. But we know in the past the big auto makers and oil companies have bought out ma & pa companies to squelch their competition, never to be seen again. We are patriotic and we want our military to be secure from fraudulent parts.
Would we vote against the buyout?
Can't imagine this dropping to .16, but anything is possible I guess. If it does that would qualify APDN as having completed one cycle of "pump-&-dump" IMHO.
Didn't know our southern neighbor was major offender, thought it was mostly far east. Shame on feds for over taxing businesses right out of manufacturing in the US (what goes around comes around). Then some of our candidates bitch because jobs go offshore, shame shame.
But also, shame on suppliers for being asleep at the switch, not very patriotic of them.
Never the less, bravo to feds for not backing down to the whiners, and for holding them financially accountable. This the language these companies speak, and is what justifies the additional cost to install anti-counterfit measures.
***[AND THAT'S WHERE APDN COMES TO THE RESCUE !!!!!!]***
And make me some money. GLTA
Something alluded to but not stressed on this board is the fact that APDN operates very successfully in the global market, not just the USA or gov. For every 1 million sales to domestic and gov there is probably 10 times that much across the rest of the globe. IMO (well except for the countries who are the guilty counterfitters)
I like that fact. Company can perform for stockholders even if electronic suppliers to gov drag their feet.
GLTA
Not in response to any one message posted here but in general becuse of the hunger for some "PR".
1. I don't see that companies issue PR's describing who their customers are or how much any contracts are worth for the sole benefit of their stock holders. If it is beneficial as a marketing tool to get more customers then of course they will. Looks to me like APDN is primarily using trade shows for it's non-gov customers and is using the mandate for gov customers. They also have a good website.
2. APDN can sell shares of stock that have been previously authorized and results in dilution without any specific announcements it is doing so, and I believe they have since August. I don't think the dilution would adversely affect the upward trend in stock price however, the course the company is on is extremely positive for stock value.
3. Stock price seems affected more by outside influences short term, and more by company performance and outlook long term. Recent move up catalyst could be penny stock promoters and 'reports' from analysts. The real pop will be the annual report in December because it HAS to be bonkers with a bonkers outlook. Until then we should still see some very good pops because we will see more pumps from the outside.
Penny stocks are very risky overall and APDN is still under the radar for any professional money managers who will not risk their client's cash on micro caps. Of course I wish I could buy bigger into APDN but only have so much money at hand and must not risk money cannot afford to loose.
The fiscal year has now ended for APDN so beyond trying to corral all their new business and inquiries, they have to put it all together for the annual reporting. Don't expect to hear alot from them because they are very busy.
It may very well be several days or even a couple weeks before the next pop so just be patient and reward will surely come. Most here have very positive outlook for this company (maybe it is a bias on ihub) and having had some winners and looser over the years in my trading I see nothing but good here, with the only discomfort being the large share count and possible further dilution, and I consider those as minor. In at $.15 I am confident the next pop insures my double and it's all gravy after that. Thinking a dollar will come after the annual report in December.
GLTA (just a saying, I don't personally think we are using "luck" here at all).
Like the others here I believe you will be rewarded handsomely. There is plenty of time for APDN to "rest for a couple weeks and spike again" at least two to three more times to be well above 50 cents before annual report in December, then BAMMMM, over a dollar for a very nice Christmas present for us all.
Courious, same pull back pattern here between .27 & .22 that we saw back at .15 to .12. Have any of you sold at around .15 then bought back in at .12 to increase share count, then done the same here by selling at .27 and getting back in down here around .22?
Is this strategy a successful one in your opinion? Should we expect several opportunities to rinse and repeat on the way up to dollar range?
Thx.
We have a winner here, I am convinced. I am in at $.15 so I am very pleased so far. If you look at the chart the last time we had 17m volume we had a little pull back and side ways action for a few days, so patience may be required until next leg up, just sayin my friends. Hope I'm wrong and this rockets, but don't get discouraged if it takes a little break. GLTA
Well, remember the government contractors were saying: going too fast for us, slow down, what about this, what about that? Like turning an aircraft carrier. It's good to see all the non-gov companies sign up though!!!