Rebounding. Own business failure wiped me out. On comeback.
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The current CCL share price is so close to the low in 2020 when COVID initially hit and ALL CRUISES CEASED !!! We are about 2-years past that point. Cruising has returned, income is returning rapidly, and the quarterly losses - while still present - are lessening. CCL fundamentals are heading the right direction.
IMO - the big negatives are, increased number of CCL shares, increased CCL debt, and the S&P/DJIA downturns impacting many stocks negatively over the past couple months. I am here long term.
Me too! I am buying CCL today. Multiple small orders (I am a small-time player) but recognize the potential bargain CCL will provide us at these prices.
GLTA CCL longs.
Everyone is entitled to their opinions. Regarding CCL, I am in the opposite camp. Been buying a lot of shares these past three days. Once the S&P and Dow complete their corrections, all will be up, up, UP !!! CCL too!!
Looking forward to CCL back above $25 soon.
GLTA CCL longs.
Carnival is getting a new ship - kind of. The Costa Luminosa is being sold to Carnival Cruise Line. The Luminosa is a sister ship to four other Carnival Spirit class ships currently in the Carnival fleet. Built in 2009, this ship is an update from the Costa Magica previously being looked at for acquisition by Carnival.
The 'new' addition will port out of Brisbane Australia most of the year, and serve the Alaska frontier in the Alaskan cruise season.
GLTA CCL longs.
https://www.cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/27685-costa-luminosa-to-transfer-to-carnival-cruise-line.html
https://thepointsguy.com/news/carnival-cruise-line-new-ship-luminosa/
If true, a CCL takeover will need a buyer with deep pockets (and a good size checkbook). Interesting topic !!
CCL is a bargain at this pps. (NOT just my opinion).
Motley Fool posted (see below) about the three major cruise lines all dropping yesterday. Led by the Norwegian Cruise Lines earnings report. Another causal pps decrease factor I neglected to mention on a recent post is the overall market correction the past four (plus) days. Motley Fool says ' profits ARE coming' -- as we all know. Six months from now, or nine months. CCL should be profitable and may never see these levels again. These are bargain basement prices for CCL stock. Also, from the article, they mentioned Princess Plus. Both my booked January cruises I purchased Princess Plus (Premier was not in existence when I booked). Yes, cruise passengers are spending more per average passenger upfront. All three major cruise lines state that fact.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/why-carnival-norwegian-cruise-and-royal-caribbean-stocks-got-torpedoed-on-thursday/ar-AAXcolH?ocid=finance-verthp-feeds&pc=U531&cvid=e40edcac9e8a4781992c30fdfe8eed33
GLTA CCL longs.
bigblue72 - hope you were able to take advantage of CCL below $13 (again this afternoon). I NEVER expected to see this price level. Not too long ago, we seemed quite happy in the $17-22 range. This appears to be a result of the one Carnival ship with the COVID outbreak earlier this month. Oil is relatively stable, cruise passengers are booking, and even though the upcoming quarterly finances will be negative - THEY ARE NOT as negative as last quarter. For a forward looking marketplace, I repeat, CCL at these pps levels seems like a 'gift'. GLTY.
GLTA CCL Longs.
You two should both be very happy soon (IMO). I believe this low pps is a buyer's 'gift' to a CCL long. Myself, I have been busy buying medium and longer term call options the past two days. Since I cruise on Princess Cruise Line, I am a CCL long-term, long, due to the shareholder on-board credit, and the potential CCL pps returns.
My family are all Carnival cruisers (I am the different one). GLTY.
GLTA CCL longs (both short term, and long term).
bigblue72 - nice addition for you. IMO, CCL should be in the 17-24 range for awhile. The 30s will get here soon as the CCL fleet returns to full service, and profits rebound. Good things are happening for the CCL longs. The days of $45, 50, 60 are way in the past due to increased shares, and increased debt these past two COVID years. I hope they return, just as I hope the CCL dividend returns -- but those are many cruising adventures ahead of the marketplace today.
We wait. We hope. We watch. You bought a nice opportunity today and strengthened your position. Best wishes on your CCL investment.
GLTA CCL longs.
Two small purchases today for me, $17.40 and below. While I will not be rich, and I do NOT expect a return to $40, $50, or $60 for years -- CCL is heading the right direction, and the fleet is returning to service (i.e., revenue !!!!). MAYBE, in two years, the dividend will return. Tons of share dilution, and debt to overcome first.
GLTA CCL longs.
P.S. I love the CCL cruise line shareholder OBC (on board credit) due to being a CCL shareholder of 100 shares (or more). Each cruise lowers my net overall CCL share PPS.
CCL - top executive(s) change announced. Current COO (Josh Weinstein) to become President and CEO, replacing Arnold Donald.
https://www.cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/27343-josh-weinstein-named-ceo-and-president-of-carnival-corporation.html
CCL Returning to service. Two CCL line updates, (re: cruising resumption) Princess, and Carnival Cruise Lines.
https://www.cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/27290-princess-restart-update-three-more-ships-resuming-service-soon.html
https://www.cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/27305-carnival-cruise-line-summer-2022-deployment-breakdown.html
CCL Business Update and Q1 earnings. The future still looks promising, but short-term rough waters still exists (article below).
https://www.cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/27062-carnival-corporation-provides-business-update-q1-earnings.html
CCL's Carnival Fleet announces full return of their ships to service in May, 2022. Long awaited news.
https://www.cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/26799-carnival-cruise-line-announces-updated-deployment-plans.html
I'll start. Let others correct me. CCL's announcement today about the stock 'sale' just repeated the sale announcement from 6-28-21. What the announcement today really stated was an extension of the share buyback -- which was supposed to conclude today. Today's announcement extended time frame to repurchase open market shares. The buyback will continue until the end of April.
A thought from the dark side - CCL has not bought back as many shares as they planned. Price too high ?? They expect prices to drift lower, then buy back ???
Unsure. Either positive, or negative, it means CCL is still looking to repurchase open market shares, with funds it still has from the 6-28-21 stock sale. (JMO)
Why the drop in CCL today ? Motley Fool and Travel Weekly both posted similar articles today. Travel Weekly story here, link at bottom.
Cruise stocks tumbled yesterday after Carnival Corp. said in a 10-K filing that bookings for the second half of 2022 were "dampening."
"Since the beginning of our fiscal year, we have experienced an impact on bookings for our near-term sailings, including higher cancellations resulting from an increase in pre-travel positive test results and challenges in the availability of timely pre-travel tests," the filing said. "In addition, in the last few weeks we have seen a dampening of the booking activity for the second half of 2022 relative to 2019."
For most of the last year, cruise lines and sellers have reported that despite the roller coaster of Covid, cruise bookings and pricing were strong in 2022, especially the second half. And while it seemed that the omicron surge had certainly impacted close-in bookings, future sailings at first seemed untouched.
Truist Securities analyst Patrick Scholes said that information in Carnival's 10-K was of concern and dovetailed with conversations he had earlier this month with senior executives at large travel agencies that specialize in cruising, as well as examining future booking and price data.
"While it is increasingly becoming common knowledge that [the first and second quarters of 2022] will likely be even bigger write-off quarters, we have increasing concerns that [the first half off 2022's] weak demand trends are now bleeding into [the second half]," Scholes wrote. "We observe that while [second half] pricing vs. 2019 is still holding/stable, the industrywide cumulative booking pace for [the second half] vs. 2019 continues to decelerate, as does 2023's pace."
Will cruise lines have to reduce prices?
In his note, Scholes said that while the belief for cruising has been that demand would remain strong throughout most of 2022, his proprietary research "strongly suggests that omicron is having a bigger impact on business than delta and that unless booking trends quickly start to reverse, which as we discuss is not impossible if/when omicron subsides, pricing will likely need to be cut for 2022, as well."
Scholes said that cruise pricing for the second half of the year was currently holding up, as "cruise lines are holding their breath ... and do not want to cut pricing until they absolutely have to," which he called "very deja vu" to what Truist had noted several months ago for the first half of this year.
(End of article)
https://www.travelweekly.com/Cruise-Travel/Cruise-stocks-drop-after-Carnival-reports-bookings-dampening
Bottom line - IMO - cruising is STILL here. CCL WILL bounce back, but a long time before $60 is seen again. So much more debt and diluted shares since COVID first appeared. Plus, the $0.50/quarter dividend is long gone. CCL is still a great Company, but a much different CCL from 2019.
Latest cruise port information in link below. For CCL, some good news, some not so good news. While Norwegian, and Royal Caribbean are halting/pausing some cruises, CCL remains on track to continue scheduled cruises.
https://www.cruisecritic.com/articles.cfm?ID=6683&et_cid=3506605&et_rid=124746322&et_referrer=Boards
Reminder - CCL 4Q 2021 announcement today.
Cruise Line COVID followup. More cases reported on the one ship previously discussed here. What is alarming is the following paragraph from the attached article. Many more cases than I was aware of. I have heard (perhaps) three dozen. But the CDC says over 1,000 since cruises resumed???
Just United States cruises, not Worldwide??
Of course, this is passengers AND crew members (Not that that makes things better for current and future cruisers).
"A report by the CDC last month showed that more than a thousand cases had been discovered on cruises in the United States since sailing resumed following the industry-wide shutdown."
https://www.chron.com/news/article/Cruise-ship-with-at-least-17-coronavirus-cases-16678395.php
Seminole Red (and Agoura Guy) Thank you. Just one link is attached below - plus the gist of the article. Another news story identified one Omni variant as well.
This is far from over (IMO).
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/virus-outbreak-cruise-ship-new-orleans_n_61ad25fde4b0451e551738ce
NEW ORLEANS (AP) — A Norwegian Cruise Line ship with at least 10 passengers and crew members infected with COVID-19 docked Sunday in New Orleans, where health officials said they were trying to disembark people without worsening the spread of the coronavirus illness.
Local news outlets in New Orleans confirmed the Norwegian Breakaway had arrived in the city. The ship departed New Orleans on Nov. 28. The Louisiana Department of Health said in a late Saturday news release that over the past week, the ship made stops in Belize, Honduras and Mexico.
Where is THIS statement coming from ?? Any proof ?? Why posting this 'statement' on the CCL Board ???
CCL outlook from the Motley Fool.
Biggest negatives are the roughly 20B in new debt since COVID hit, and the still negative quarterly cash flows.
The positive growth WILL be forthcoming, and CCL pps WILL increase, BUT, it might take awhile to see the previous profit and share price levels.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/topstocks/why-carnival-corporation-stock-dropped-today/ar-AAQvsr2?ocid=msedgntp
The way I read this, the CDC will allow Cruise Lines to establish their own COVID rules/guidance, effective January 15, 2022, at (one minute after) midnight.
Good news for the CCL family of ships (IMO).
https://www.cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/26101-cdc-extends-conditional-sail-order-through-january-15-2022.html
The CCL ships are coming back. Slowly, not at full capacity, BUT coming back!!! Soon CCL will be at full strength -- full earnings.
I hope the CCL downtrend today is NOT due exclusively to yesterday's bacon announcement. Carnival cruise ships are only serving bacon every other day on the Lido buffet. Other pork items ARE NOT limited - only bacon.
https://www.cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/25686-carnival-cruise-line-temporarily-limits-bacon-at-the-buffet-fleetwide.html
GLTA CCL longs. The price WILL increase soon.
P.S. Bacon will be back soon too (IMO).
Latest cruise ship 2021 return to status numbers. While Carnival Cruise Line is doing great, the other CCL members are a little slower. Unsure why (locations??)
https://www.cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/25654-cruise-capacity-restart-projections-for-the-major-companies-by-the-end-of-2021.html
CCL projected at 74% by EOY.
Royal Caribbean at 87%
Norwegian at 78%
MSC at 97%
and CCL General Counsel, and CCL Chief Ethics Officer. Oh, My !!!
I hate to say less than positive CCL information here because some folks here view it negatively. Just a few items --
a. COVID Delta strain is unknown, but increasing around the World.
b. CCL is 'slowly' bring ships back. Very very slowly, IMO.
c. None of the ships returning to service are at full capacity.
d. Many CCL Cruise lines are still postponing departures.
e. The majority of PPS earnings forecasts are negative until Q1-22.
f. There HAS BEEN shareholder dilution.
g. The shareholder dividend is gone.
h. A lot of shareholder debt has been acquired this past year.
g. Plus, plus, plus. Add a market correction and watch CCL prices.
All that said -- I still believe CCL is a BUY, and HOLD. She is a very positive (future) Company with GREAT growth potential.
My biggest concerns above are: A, B, C, and D. It seems the end of 2021 may be the most aggressive return to normal service, as we all knew Cruising to be. The Delta strain of COVID is the big unknown.
GLTA CCL logs.
So tough to tell with CCL. The markets are forwarding looking. Forward looking -- CCL is a sure thing (IMO).
Currently, ongoing dilution is happening to bring in needed cash. The fleet IS returning -- but slowly. Ships WILL NOT be at full capacity for awhile. Many other lines are VERY slowly bring back the fleet. Even with testing for the passengers and crew, positive COVID test results are showing up. During the cruise -- from where ???
Disney just delayed one month due to uncertain test results on a trial cruise of 300 passengers.
Lots happening in the industry. While a positive trend, still VERY slow to regain FULL capacity.
COVID (variation 4) is currently kicking a small portion of the World's butt. WILL IT CONTINUE ???????
One article mentioned a normal cruise line may bring on 3 ships a year. This year -- bring on 12-14 ships. The whole fleet because they have been offline for over 12-months. A massive undertaking for EVERY cruise line. CCL, THE MOST, due to their shear size and quantity of ships.
Consensus of analysis sees improvement in future CCL quarterly reports, but no positive earnings until AFTER the second quarter of 2022. A year away.
This COVID 4 strain will be interesting to watch (from afar).
Interesting times.
GLTA CCL longs
Princess Cruise Line schedule for returning. Slow. One cruise in July, the rest later this year per the attached article. CCL still has a couple rough quarters ahead. Also, the initial cruises are NOT at full capacity. BUT-- the CCL Cruise ships ARE COMING BACK !!!
https://www.cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/25267-here-are-all-the-princess-ships-set-to-cruise-in-the-u-s.html
LOL - I was wrong! The Celebrity Millenium was the infected cruise ship per this article. While the fighting continues between the State of Florida and the CDC, I like the approach Celebrity seems to be using - to have passengers show proof of vaccination (not requiring) and to allow them to cruise if proof is shown at their paid fare, or charge extra fees (and extra restrictions) if no proof is shown.
I can see CCL doing the same when their few ships start cruising soon from Florida -- Ask for vaccination proof, but do not demand to see proof.
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/tourism-cruises/article252054773.html
GLTA CCL longs
CCL looks clear. IMO, Celebrity Summit, or Celebrity Silhouette are the most likely candidates from the attached Port schedule.
https://pevvesseltraffic.broward.org/webx/
GLTA CCL longs
Interesting potential conflict !! I cannot find the actual article I read, but the below link gives a little idea. I think this may be a non-issue.
Summation. The State of Florida may not require vaccination records (HIPAA probably, but per the CDC guidelines, the cruise lines may.
If I decide to cruise, and refuse to show vaccination documentation, if I show any positive COVID signs, the ship can deny my boarding. If I have no documentation, and exhibit zero symptoms, it is up to the ship if I board, or not.
If I show documentation, and exhibit zero symptoms - come on aboard !!
At the risk of NOT being allowed to board, I have to believe most folks will carry proof of vaccination to assure best chance of boarding their cruise. Florida may not require proof, but I am taking my vaccination card with me -- just in case.
https://cruiseline.com/advice/what-s-hot/news/cdc-issues-new-guidelines-for-passenger-screenings
RIP Gavin MacLeod -- Captain Stubing of The Love Boat.
Many credit this show for awakening the cruise industry. One of my guilty pleasures is watching episodes of The Love Boat on the Princess Cruise Ship Channel when I awake at nighttime aboard a cruise.
Princess Cruise Line, and CCL, lost one of their memorable Captains today. RIP.
Most recent breakdown of cruise re-start (all Cruise Lines included). CCL starting, but slowly (IMO). Even on re-start, the ships will not be at 100% capacity due to current CDC restrictions. Carnival restarts follow Norwegian announced plans. Norwegian estimates about three months to fully prepare a ship for customer sailings. After a year (plus) layup, there is much to prepare to make a ship ready, plus physically modified to accept the new CDC rules.
CCL IS COMING BACK - slowly. This will be another bad quarter, next quarter will hopefully stop the negative cash flow - slowly at first, more robust near the end of the third quarter. All, IMO.
https://cruiseline.com/advice/what-s-hot/news/cruise-lines-announce-return-to-sailing-dates?utm_source=CruiselinecomMC&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Native+Email+210528
A resumption of cruising in the United States (hopefully). Current CDC guidance has finally been released. The author points out a few problems - BUT - the fact that a guidance has finally been issued is a major step forward for CCL.
https://cruiseradio.net/new-cdc-cruise-guidance-masks-distancing-explained/
Saying this prior to the market opening. One reason CCL may be a little lackluster in pps, might be due to Norwegian Cruise Line (NCHL) posting their 2021 Q1 numbers yesterday.
https://www.cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/24943-norwegian-cruise-line-holdings-2021-q1-results-and-business-update.html
One amazing line from the report:
Revenue decreased to $3.1 million compared to $1.2 billion in 2020 due to the complete suspension of voyages in the quarter.
I first read a 25% decrease - wrong - it is a drop of 387 times less. Amazing the cruise lines are still able to function.
Yes, cruising is looking good for 2022. Our ships are returning to service. Slowly, but surely.
On April 30th, Investors Business Daily published this CCL fundamental (mostly) analysis, with additional information too. It contains both good, and not so good short term analysis, but long term - happy days ahead for CCL.
https://www.investors.com/research/ccl-stock-buy-now/?src=A00220
Slow restart, but a restart neverless. This is the projected cruises re-starting as of August 31, 2021, per the following link.
https://www.cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/24840-the-biggest-cruise-brands-by-capacity-this-summer.html
While CCL Corporation has 13 ships on the list, I was surprised not a singe Carnival ship is yet scheduled for a pre-August 31 cruise. Of course, this could change tomorrow. CCL Corporation is restarting in a limited capacity, but Carnival ships are yet to be scheduled.
Note: For all cruise lines, USA departures are VERY limited.
Carnival Corporation
Ships: 13
Brands in Service: 6 out of 9
Total Berths: 38,557
By Brand
Costa: 4 ships and 13,976 berths
AIDA: 2 ships and 5,424 berths
P&O: 2 ships and 8,811 berths
Princess: 2 ships and 7,200 berths
Cunard: 1 ship and 2,092 berths
Seabourn: 2 ships and 1,054 berths
Politics is still Item #1 in allowing CCL to resume cruising.
Two articles (both similar, yet different)
https://cruiseradio.net/politicians-cdc-letter-stop-cruise-ships-sailing/
https://cruiseradio.net/cruise-return-faces-opposition-support/
Of note, even when allowed to sail, occupancy will be greatly restricted. I have read were at least one of the major lines will start with 50% capacity. At 50%, they can make a profit, but not much. The USA Cruise Industry is at the mercy of the CDC.
NOT folks wanting to cruise.
Of note, while not a positive CCL post, I have two cruises booked in January, 2022 on Princess Cruise Line. My first back-to-back ever, for two full weeks - one week each cruise.
I believe in CCL, and want to see the industry return to pre-COVID enjoyment.