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That's a good point, but I do believe CTIX is ahead of any competition, and that ought to be clear by the fact such a small company is performing clinical trials at Dana Farber. I was looking at Ascenta and their last news update was in 2011. Clinical trial info was updated September of 2012, but it makes me wonder what sort of obstacles these guys have faced. They may have a great drug on their hands - and for the sake of cancer sufferers around the world, I hope they also have something to offer. But, there's no evidence on their website that it's anything better than Kevetrin.
CTIX seems to be knocking out each step with clarity and amazing timeliness. As Leo even mentioned, one of the things that took them so long was getting trials at Dana Farber. Dr. Mennon felt it was worth the extra effort. That speaks volumes to me. It makes me realize this team wants to be at the best in order to have their drug seen by the best. The best cancer researchers are no doubt going to be among the most critical and sharpest individuals in the world.
Dr. Mennon wants this drug under the most critical eyes, and I can only think of two good reasons why. He's the kind of man that wants this drug looked at from every angle to ensure it is as good as CTIX believes, and two, because once the most critical eyes vouch for this drug - there is no one else that needs convincing, the train will already have tons of momentum.
Perhaps it's actually in our favor the author didn't mention it the first time around. When a correction comes out, people will most assuredly know what was worth correcting in that article ;)
The weekly chart looks so wicked. Looks like a snapped rope except instead of energy dissipating, it's been building and compressing... I've never seen such clear pulses on a chart. Then again, I only found my way to the market a year ago and this sort of chart may not be as fascinating to many of you.
TOB it would be neat if you could do a quick analysis through the weekly chart dating back to about a year ago to current. I'd like to hear your thoughts on it if ya get a chance. I've been learning Elliot Wave and your posts make for great reads.
I went back and read some posts from last year and earlier this year.
Why has everyone been touting the IND application is about to be completed for... an entire year? On a positive note, the 10Q does say clinical trials aren't due to begin until late 2013 as Bull posted - but that doesn't reflect the sentiment here or in the press releases. It keeps hinting at much eariler than that.
I know the CEO has good history, I see the studies that have been coming out, but why is there this huge disconnect with timelines. Surely some of you that have been here for months, and went through that pump-dump or momentum trading induced spike early July, have to be seriously asking yourselves what could be causing the delays?
I understand drug development takes time. But if you're an investor with a relatively sizeable position in a company and you're constantly thinking IND application is right around the corner I can't help but feel there is some sense of delusion at work just like every new trader keeps thinking he can wait out his 10% loss because the stock will go up again. Please don't get me wrong, I understand the strength of the fundamentals here. I just am surprised to not see any real discussion about this.
The technicals are very interesting at this point. The strength of recent trading has not been around since the blast off in July. No doubt the recent movement has a far smoother curve than the abrupt move in July. This week will most certainly be interesting - I'll be watching this one closely.
Ahh sorry all, interview was on April of 2011. Now I'm just confused regarding company's timelines.
10Q filings have stated that consistently even March/May which was the time the CEO stated they expect to be done in 6-8 months. Could they just be playing it safe in the filings?
Interesting, just saw your post after posting mine.
I listened to the live interview with the CEO done on April 26, 2012 where he stated studies should be completed within 6-8 months after which he expects phase I trials to begin. It seems our estimates are correct regarding early first quarter, possibly even late December. That certainly explains the price/volume increase as of late. Looking forward to some good news.
Link to interview is on their website, would link but on my phone.
Wow thanks for that link. I feel almost naked without it even though I just found out about it haha
DocJohn thank you for that link, will take a good look at it.
Bull, not sure yet about a date. I need to look at what studies they have completed thus far and their results. Don't have time ATM.
Since you guys are talking about the float, are there potential downfalls to the float being so low? Like I said earlier I'm a noob when it comes to financial aspect of things and Im still working on getting a good handle on it.
Seems in the OTC world low floaters tend to disappoint somehow (the ones I've played with since my extreme beginner phase). I've been spending most of my time on technical analysis.
Is it in the company's best interest to have such a low float? I don't expect to get burned here, but I've never seen a float this low.
Good stuff. 1st Q seems about right assuming the IND app doesn't need to be put on hold (if the company can't correct any issue within 30 days, app is put on hold). I read in the paper by the former FDA guy something like more than 80% of applications get some sort of feedback from the FDA. If companies do not hear from the FDA within 30 days of app submission, they are clear to move forward with trials - but that's rarely the case.
But if this company is as good as we believe, I don't believe this is a concern. But at least we know of potential setbacks.
Just saw there is more timeline information further down in the presentation, you all should know when you see it! Hopefully this is helpful.
So I came across a pretty helpful article as far as requirements and considerations for the IND application. Timeline is not discussed, however I found a very very informative presentation regarding IND studies. I have not yet read through it entirely, but from what I have seen it seems to be a goldmine of useful information that could perhaps allow the board to project a well reasoned timeline.
I have not yet looked into the details where this company is at right now (and what they have accomplished already). Hopefully others can utilize their DD and offer opinions on where they feel SBFM is at (assuming the drug development timeline outlined in the presentation - pg. 25/68, or any other source one may have).
First article: (full article is free I believe)
Information Needed to Conduct First-in-Human Oncology Trials in the United States: A View from a Former FDA Medical Reviewer
http://clincancerres.aacrjournals.org/content/16/6/1719.full
Presentation with a goldmine of information:
http://www.pharmatek.com/pdf/PTEKU/Oct012008.pdf
I've been looking into all kinds of information on IND studies. I will try to post a bit of my findings later today, but might not get a chance.
Some of it may be review for many of you, but I do believe there's this air of mystery, especially with newcomers, of even the purpose of these studies IND-enabling studies.
Thank you Cammy. I will be sure to check out their news section. Hope your son enjoys biochem. It starts off a bit unattractive and perhaps boring, but once the foundation is set to learn the more advanced topics... that's where science and beauty begin mingling :)
Definitely excited to be here and learn much more about SBFM.
Takecare,
RD (has a nice ring to it, thanks lol)
He mea iki Denise :) (I totally had to look that up)
Thanks for the welcome, please do feel free to ask if you or others on this board would like clarification regarding the science aspect of things. I would be more than happy to discuss and contribute. I'm not an expert by any means, but my thirst to understand is relentless - particularly with pharmacology/biochem (with great interest in psychopharmacology... this is a field that is just being born). I also have access to almost all of the major databases for scientific journals so my DD on the scientific end is usually well researched. Too bad my knowledge of reading a company's financials is severely limited. Am working on that one - won't last long in the market being ignorant in that.
Takecare and mahalo for your kindness.
Thank you, GLTY as well. I hope to begin accumulating tomorrow. Unbelievable how low key this stock is.
I just discovered this company. First thing I did was see if pubmed would have any results for "adva-27a".
I wasn't expecting much anything, as usually you need to search for terms relevant to the compound's scientific naming schemes.
Only one result came, and it read:
dva-27a, a Novel Podophyllotoxin Derivative Found to Be Effective against Multidrug Resistant Human Cancer Cells.
...found to be effective against multidrug resistance cancer... WAT? When was this thing published I ask... October 2012. Gasp. What a beast this will become. Glad I found this at this period, I've had a rough couple trading weeks. This appears to be a perfect entry point.
I am interested to read further into this compound, so far I saw it's a topoisomeraseII inhibitor. Very interesting mechanism of action as this enzyme is crucial to DNA in all cells. I suppose the favorable pharmokinetics are hoped to limit unforseen side-effects?
I'm not concerned, just curious. If those resistant to current drugs find this drug to make their life even a bit more comfortable I would call it a success - pps be damned. If anyone here is well versed on the pharmacology/biochem of this drug, I'd love to hear your thoughts.
Feels good to invest in this sort of company. I know the passion and second to none dedication researchers have, and I have much respect for them. Looting shareholders is likely not on their agenda, lol.
If there are good bio subsections where similar minded people post, please do PM me. I studied biochem in undergrad and have a true passion for understanding the mechanical workings of life, and more importantly how that knowledge can be used to move humanity forward. Grad school one day for me, just not now. Sorry for the kind of off-topic ramble. Best wishes.
Can someone help me understand market maker activity here? NITE was the only one dishing out shares below .004, then once NITE is out UBSS shows out of no where looking to dish out 3 million shares at .004. What gives? These guys just didn't feel like competing with NITE earlier or what?
Beautiful hammer on the 5 minute chart, soon on the 15 minute one as well. Good to see the gap filled.
Candles tell me sellers are getting worn out. I expect to test .008 shortly and begin closing in the mid 6's to low 7's. We will see. Best wishes.
That was what I felt drove the price down, however that paper does not seem relevant for Parkinson's, but other ways in which MANF can be utilized as well as furthering the understanding of it's mechanism of action.
I will try to find this paper and take a closer look however. Its important to ascertain what the implications are for MANF's current value.
Wow thanks for that bump.
Same here bud. Important lessons learned.
Good post. I agree and am watching closely. I'm not going to buy or sell at this point... but one can't lose sight of preserving capital because they're clinging to hope.
I've come to realize something about the market, and it can be summed up as: Don't fight it, hate it, nor love it. NEVER have faith in it. Just accept it.
Yea, definitely hurts. The dip today falls below the first support level from the initial rally. I have no choice but to hold at this point, but this chart needs a makeover. Everything indicates oversold, it should be bounce. Frankly I've been thinking that since .038 levels, but the chart keeps bleeding. I don't see any logical reason for this happening. Hopefully we close above .024
Looks like shares are being held tightly. A bit of buying will begin moving this. Hope to end the day at .09, perhaps hit a penny and climb back down a bit. Let's see what happens.
TD Ameritrade showing .0114
What are the implications of these differences in brokers with exchange changes? Anyone seen this type of thing happen in the past?
Friday Predictions:
If PR happens to come out on Friday, I expect HOD = EOD. The numbers I believe the market will respect are:
Potential, but not long lasting buying opportunity @ .009
Fairly explosive ride back up possibly peaking today's HOD very briefly. I expect a drop down and consolidation for awhile near todays EOD.
And as I said, with a favorable PR, EOD will likely be at the explosive high touched earlier in the day. Range: .184 to .02, but I don't expect to hit 2 pennies yet. Hope the market proves me wrong on that part :)
Edit: Let me clarify, I don't expect to close at 2 pennies yet.
I'm satisfied with this close even though I'm currently at a loss as I got in at an average of .0568. In fact, I couldn't have asked for a better close. It falls perfectly on retracement estimates. I don't believe the lower wick on the last candle is of any importance. I expect consolidation around here - perhaps a day, we'll see. Looking good.
There seems to be a lot of non-sensical blaming of <insert favorite here>. Even if there is all kind of manipulation or whatever, why not explain why it wasn't seen coming. Frankly, I don't believe market makers have the power to manipulate price action. Price action is as it is. Unlike the federal reserve, our decisions about buying or selling are ours. We can be manipulated and tricked, but still, even the bad decisions are ours. I know there are some scumbags out there, but again, there are must be ways to spot this prior to taking a hit.
For those complaining of manipulation blabla, do you think it's possible to see it coming, and if so, how? I'm still learning, but "HE DID IT", or "THEY GOT WHAT THEY WANTED" seems like a lot of fluff that gets awfully boring to read on every damn board. Makes me think the people who say this type of shit are the one's trying to manipulate other people.
So long it continues with this strength, I expect .008 in near future and perhaps a couple (2) pennies Friday. Trying to be realistic here - this is simply based on the chart.
I wish it was consolidating a bit lower, around .005. I expect it will drop lower today or tomorrow a bit before climbing. I'm a noob, but I've been working hard to learn as much as I can everyday for many months now. And that's just my opinion. One thing I've learned for certain - do not trust anyone but yourself, especially when you're about to put in more money than expected because of the rush you're feeling.
Fib retracement to 61.8% then I expect a bounce. We are right about at it now.