Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
My trade today was buying calls at SPY 384 in the morning, (then went to work) then sell the garbage back to MM first time SPY hit 388
It's not every day but who's counting
currently cash
Will buy again and again and again and again and again ... in dips, dips, dips, dips, dips, .....
Then sell at resistance or some fat pay
Only fools get discouraged to make money
I wonder how many half-smart people missed to buy d50
I don't "need" predictions. Is more like I wanted to see a personal conclusion of the person presenting a graphic.
Oh yes, I stand by my "Do NOT buy puts. Buy calls and only calls in dips"
That trade was good btw.
Is not my fault if someone doesn't know when to sell TO CONCLUDE THE TRADE.
I won't hold other people's hands all the time in their trading.
No way
What this wannabe wants is that the weather channel to show just some satellite pictures without committing to ANY weather predictions, let the people make their own prediction for themselves.
How unprofessional.
But FINALLY The truth came out.
Thank you.
"Besides, can't you make your own predictions ?
Why do you need mine ?
Is it so that you might have some ammunition against me in the event that my prediction is wrong ? "
fwiw, no, I am NOT after such foolish things. The delusion is unfounded.
On the other hand though, oh yeah, the pot did exactly that.
Ridiculed my opinion "to buy long and only long".
Even though it was a spectacular long trade that had to be closed at resistance which point came BEFORE the drop. So ....
Look, I have no problem with any of the charts you post.
Sometimes you make mistakes in basic charting, but it's ok. i have no problem with that either.
I don't know if I make mistakes in charting, only another person can tell. So far whenever I posted a chart I didn't get any such feedback.
The problem so to speak is with your shyness to step up and say a prediction based on any chart.
Long and especially super-long time predictions are not valid as due to inflation everything is bound to go higher.
So it remains immediate term predictions.
In other words, as an example, you can say SPY should plunge soon to xxx level, or resistance at xxx conform to your own chart, however it is, so therefore SPY will go to xxx level higher.
Immediate predictions, not long term.
I had made some wrong ST predictions, and I have made some spectacular ones (i.e. recently) , but nobody cared, but that's ok, I'm not here for shoulder pat.
That's the difference - you never made ST predictions to my recollection.
It doesn't even have to be SPY, it can be any of your charts.
So charts presented are ok, no need to defend charts.
You don't owe anything.
If you can't make ST predictions based on your own charts that's ok.
Believe me I don't use other people predictions.
But this is actually what's missing from some posters - ST predictions based on a chart.
It does NOT have to be an intraday chart. Daily charts are fine too.
Do whatever you want, I ..
You are right but only to some extent.
You can't impose someone to predict a certain thing so ridged, so difficult.
But you are right in the sense that if the person (chartist) can NOT predict anything, then he has nothing.
So rather than ask a cold prediction thing of him, better to ask him to predict ANYTHING, but to PREDICT without dancing around though.
So by removing restrictive conditions he has to show something or he has nothing. It's as simple as that.
Of course, one small condition must be allowed as we deal with dynamic activity, like "if line is broken, then ... yada yada yada...", but only that, that's it.
Lines are very very simple to trade, hence you can't have multiple BS excuses and hot air.
But don't hold your breath.
As I asked before and nothing happened prediction-wise.
So frankly, I stopped to care.
I strongly disagree based on my own experience.
I used to daytrade using lines very good.
We can definitely see channels in intradays across few days.
Even nowhat drew few times such intraday support lines.
So if they exist, then they can definitely be traded and daytraded.
But like with other setups, intraday and multi-intraday lines are not always in good trading setups. This is one of the reasons I stepped away. But I can say that I was very happy with them.
Quote: "You don’t use these to day trade. They’re for that once a month or whenever it might be"
Someone a long while ago was doing something similar (watching) but with something else, the commercials. You remind me of him (maybe you are him). Very decent guy as well.
The way I remember, he was watching positions and change in holdings (of commercials). So if the positions were down so will ... the market pretty soon. And likewise, the commercials will increase their positions and this would mean the market will go higher in an up-leg.
maybe you do know about the commercials. I will try remembering.
If I remember correctly it was the COT report (the commitment of traders report). Holdings of various things.
I think this is the site: https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/index.htm
According to some notes I found, I see that they modified it a bit, and I can't see the "Market Report" tab (formerly a tab at left that I had to click on to go further down the rabbit hole).
I remember seeing the holdings in numbers. But now all i see is some useless links around that if I click on them nothing opens up (i.e. Updated March 19 2021, just that title and blank rest of screen)
As I tried to see Nasdaq holdings for both futures and options combined (the useless link down the page).
Maybe you or someone else can find a way to that data..
I think we need 3 separate data collection of options volume. 1 an hour into trading, 1 mid day, one near EOD.
And Re: No time. It is possible to take screenshots on the phone and transfer data later on at home.
thanks for the clarifications. I use other things, but I feel some potential value that could come in handy and is always good to expand info Ave
I don't know how much back verification you did (thus how much odds you would assign), so I need to make a watch to see how much reliability exists and particularly at pivot point in charts.
For a very long time I feel that a second tier of such data is even more useful/reliable. I refer to longer dated options. For example "visibly" higher volume of away market (both ITM and OTM but OTM more important). It is more like your 40k example, only that i do NOT look for large nubers, only the stand out numbers. So if i see 2k among 50s and 100s that 2k will be registered, Now 2that k is not massive, but will qualify to be a mark to "chart" the expectations.
So far due to the severe lack of time I only did it occasionally so I'm still on the baby steps area, but it showed decent potential.
Oh, and I pick the data from inside the trading platform (don't know where else, plus I think intraday volume is more telling than EOD volume)
much appreciated
I appreciate it. But I can't see the SPY. Only the SPX.
So you are taking SPX and extrapolate for SPY ?
No SPY?
Also No March. Earliest is April 30 ..
But you said you saw current volume
Can you please clarify
where could you see 'most calls/puts'
There are 2 sides to the market
nonsense
But they often do
Quote: "The support and resistance doesn't have to move at the line...because there is a line there."
Technically you have to consider the cycle over the megaphone.
Reason being the support/resistance map.
The cycle went higher violating the round resistance , and in doing so is negating the megaphone.
For the megaphone to hold true it would have to violate the support at end of January. It did not. Support held. As a consequence the resistance came under pressure and eventually broke.
Now (presently) the low of the megaphone (Mar 5) is the support that need to not be violated.
It's pretty simple case imo.
If you disagree with my technical interpretation try to explain your point.
(I have no reason presently, just a hunch, but I think those cycle lows will be revisited - partially because the megaphone)
Did you buy the dip today?
I see people being unsure.
How can you possibly be unsure in an uptrend is beyond me.
Do NOT buy puts.
Buy calls and only calls in dips.
Today was a nice dip. You all SHOULD have bought calls.
You didn't.
It's only you to blame.
By end of the year SPY 300s will be a thing of the past.
Just like prices of houses.
PRINTING and INFLATION
I'm envisioning a currency that denominates TIME. Unlike Gold which is also UN-printable, Time you can NOT find more of it.
In other words, if you work 1 hour, then that 1-hour currency you earned will be the same value 10 years later.
US will strongly oppose this or any other form of competing currency as the very American way of life will go down with the demise of USD.
Life/Time is the same for every person. One hour is the same for every individual. Therefore it will be a fair currency and extremely stable.
it will reflect 100% what a person input is in the society.
It is still problematic as 1 hour of doctor is not similar to 1 hour of babysitting.
My answer to that is the amount of effort to acquire a skill (i.e. medical school) should be used as a multiplier (but not going crazy like today).
CEO of a company same, a multiplier related to parameters like effort, company growth and such, but with limit as to not have the abusive discrepancy of today.
The best part is that will be extremely stable and non-inflationary.
That's in the future
imo the market will be extremely rational if priced in such a currency as there will be extreme scarcity in funds to manipulate anything
Budgets will be balanced by nature, no money for wars.
The donations will have a real meaning.
It's not simple to implement and is well above my expertise, but I'm a visionary.
Nonsense re: "ranks as a top liquidity provider.."
They worth sht, they are penniless rednecks.
The liquidity provider is ---> THE US FEDeral government
You cut them out and you collapse all these rednecks.
But you just can't cut them out just yet.
It will take a while, who knows how long..
But they have the credit/blame for the liquidity flood !!!!!
That's precisely why I advise people to only trade on the long side !!!
The US FEDeral government is trapped in this scheme of inflating and debasing USD, TRAPPED !!!!!
As a consequence , trading long and only long is like shooting fish in a barrel !!!!!!!!!!
we apparently plateaued today, so dip to 395 next
(and possible .. but later dip to 389)
nice :)
Unbelievable but immediate support is 395
meaning a dip to 395 should be bought for a long trade with immediate resistance NEAR prior highs (or a trailing STC order)
I'm assuming they want to engineer a drop from near 400 as is a round number and will make a plunge look realistic and attract ... Shorts
Don't buy puts, don't short SPY
WAIT for dip to buy long
Do this and ONLY this and you will be safe
This has been true even during strong plunges
Not for one year but FOR DECADES
You can try to exit at tops, but if you didn't, then just buy in valleys with the money you have aside
You want to make money don't you..
So follow this
And ONLY this
And ... if you follow this the manipulators have nothing against you to fight you. They MUST rise the market ! So they MUST continue ... --> with you on board making money !!!!!
MAKE MONEY PEOPLE !!!!!
There are two such programs I uncovered.
One I call "normal" and the other I call "inverse". They are extremely similar, but they have a distinct difference, which to this moment I can't figure out.
Think of a MACD indicator that will indicate momentum and buying (program), but sometimes MACD will actually go down, yet the price will still rise. So momentum is down but price rise?? And sometimes really REALLY rise (imagine you go with the indicator and you go short, ouch).
So that would be "inverse" so to speak, where you instead of reading the MACD you look at the level, above/bellow 0 ...AND if it is following price action and the like support/resistance.
The program is NOT the MACD, but this is just to illustrate the point.
There MUST be a reason for the concept of the program, a logical, maybe scientific reason.
If i can figure that then I can untie more of it.
And potentially be able to trade it from the beginning (which I can't right now).
I am well positioned to understand such otherwise overlooked details.
So potentially I'm blessed - factually I'm subdued.
ALL the market action is reaching points of price.
At those points something has to happen.
Based on what happens we take NEXT step.
The "NEXT step" is called a trade.
We can CLEARLY see these points in a chart.
It already happened, We can't change the past.
But will tell us what to expect. And we trade that expectation.
If a doctor has a diploma on the wall it's in the past, but will tell you to trust that person today and into the immediate future and see him.
NO NEED TO LISTEN TO VOICES
Quote: "my "coco" voice said...."
Last week, before the weekend, I detected a buying program.
I think , and would argue that better would be said that it is a buying program as in "programmed buying" , rather than some computerized program, which in the end is also.
So an entity that is in control, decides what is to happen, then it orders the lower floor, the programmers and floor traders to carry on that specific price action (totally in disregard to news or bid/ask).
I wish I can see more of this, but I am content at least I see some of it, which is not much, rarely, and never before it happen.
But I do recognize it when it happens.
This happens ONLY in short periods like 5-10 days and only in intraday, and can be seen in one intraday but not another.
I honestly don't look for it since I can't really trade it with my other models, but once you see it you better hold the positions if you have any, in the direction of the programmed buying/selling (usually is buying, 9/10)
This time it should last at least one more day of price supportED action.
But OEX being 3 days away, it's fair to expect an extension towards Friday (but I did see cases where price run so satisfactory to sell targets prior to OEX that the manipulators cashed in Earlier and let supporting price collapse by OEX as they had their fat-bellies fill already)
But this seems to have at least one-two days time of ordered support.
It's a lot of work yet to be done (for my kind), like quantifying pay of trades (to extract potential and model schemes), risk absorption, and models of time. I have done some of it but I can't find time to do more and time is running out, we are getting old and older and life demands other things and rightfully so.
"bra" how is that 371 major (pulled out of A) doing
Was yesterday price action approving?
Was SPY listening?
Bad, SPY, bad bad SPY...
no point in buying puts and lose money
calls and only calls
Friday lows is support
SPY levitates above that
If that is violated then you can talk puts
otherwise you are gambling in the casino
but even if it breaks the support there is even more support bellow so it's buy the dip
but intraday it WILL be possible to daytrade puts respectfully
I would daytrade puts with underbelly of violated support and with a small chart BB and cover on bigger support bellow
SPY seems to drag the show so the puts trade may not come in timely window
Which remains to buy dip in gap down if happens
if you don't add injury to your sarcasm the joke is on you as inflation to make THEM money hurts YOU.
So first do the injury to add insult to it, that's the way.
Injury to them is YOU to have SUCCESSFUL trades and therefor TAKE SOME OF THEIR MONEY.
TEN you say haha and whatever sarcasm you feel good about.
Quote: "My Sarcasm & Mockery of the whole "system""
Without me winning I don't feel like mocking them or laughing as in fact they are BETTER at this than me.
THAT has to change in my favor. THEN we can have a joking and mockery fest.
BTW, otherwise it's nothing wrong with your jokes and sarcasm on them.
Orchestrated 100%. But the rest you say and you say you do is barely half the pic.
The other half is ---> to keep trading the strong side only!
In this scenario , assuming they DO drop it back to 371, you have to let that go and develop a strategy that trade only the long side and let the drop/ (/dips) happen while you are in cash (not puts).
This way you almost insure a 100% success rate.
And if they don't drop it then you are still benefiting as you are in the longs until a resistance appears.
That's my trading plan (always adjusting unfortunately but that's the thing)
There ARE some SURE put trades, but they are RARE and only when the market is vulnerable. But even if you miss those you will be fine.
Have a hard look at things (charts vs potential trading).
Following the DOW is not following strength. it's the easiest to manipulate of all indexes. So not much trust I can put in it to lead.
NASDAQ is usually a leader. I find it pretty accurate too.
Russell2000 is "America" , supposedly anyway, you can't tell with all the money debasing the government is doing.
SPY represents the market, and is best in that regard.
But I find that rather than doing this way with "canned index cocktail" is better to look after yourself and create a customized index/es to follow.
Like finding the leaders in SPY and Nasdaq and follow that.
Re 20 day observation, I think it's pretty logical. The 20 day closely represents a month, hence it's like "monthly outlook" and/or monthly chart withing a moving average line. So when a whole month prices kind of going down, the holders will want to cash out next time they get the opportunity. The monthly chart shows this phenomenon, and likely it is seen in 20 day.
But it comes down to the length of down segment and the steepness. The shallow ones probably mean nothing. And such waves surely to form cycles which on their own are governed by cycle rules which further explains the phenomenon (and makes it easier to trade.
We can alternatively look just at 20 day in lieu of price itself and find if price is trending linear or in cycles.
I can't do this as I have too many trees on my chart and I can't see the forest (20 day wavering) ..
And while we chat here we have new ATH in SPY, but not decisive just yet, but good enough to negate any and all selling outlook and keep the UP-trend powerful.
Going long is the only risk free trade in this environment of government debasing of dollar. (Consequently Gold is a sleeping giant if someone asks me - Bitcoin story is a window into the future of what CAN and WILL happen with Gold)
Trend is UPtrend, But
SPY is near ATH resistance and trying to get to it without gap over
This implies a possible put trade intraday today from near that February 16 , @ 394,17
Holding longs near the ATH is mindless and who does it takes unnecessary risk
better exit* longs and wait on the fence with popcorn to see it violated and reload there or on dip whichever comes first
*intraday resistance CAN form bellow or above that ATH number, so using intraday chart should help decide the timing
(i.e. price can just go-go-go all day and violate decisively the Feb 16 ATH which would be seen in intraday chart , therefore in such event no exit "systemic order" would be triggered..)
New ATH soon
Trend is UPtrens, buying the dips is the only risk free trade.
bonds are BS, a NON event.., Fed buys as promised as needed even if is the only buying the last resort, so why even bother looking at it..
Bonds are therefore a pure garbage indicator
so 20/20 this post 338027 and 338031 were 100% right on the money after all, bull's eye forecast.
Shall I say "I told you so" LOL.
Same old same old, that's what happens.
I had something similar to 338031 today for a daytrade but was too busy to trade it or to post about it. But looked at it while i was driving and was real nice to see it come to pass perfectly.
But it's getting a bit more challenging now tbh going forward.
Nothing we can't handle tho..
Don't forget this --> the trend is UPtrend. Therefore the least risky is to buy long (as much as you may hate to buy dips near ATH and after we saw those strong selloffs --> in fact GOLDEN BUYING OPPORTUNITIES)...
Why huge surprise?
they've been waiting for me to sell my calls as I need my own rotation
Seems like a put this 385.xx
But I prefer to pass since uptrend still here
Those luckier than me go ahead
problem with these scenarios is that "they" don't want to repeat patterns much, and definitely not immediately
So a 2x pattern has lower odds of repetition, and a 3rd time even lower
One of the most repetitive/serial patterns I find to be cycles and ... the no-pattern "pattern" aka momo moves and linear
Not impossible what you guessed, just low odds imo