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vix guru said 440 should be maximization of SP for 2021
(calculations)
It seems 438 got sellers (early birds?)
Also new interesting idea/s applicable for further OEP development
(I don't know how I couldn't see that angle before)
New horizons
Let's stay technical.
Top has never ever occurred in SPY.
But someone will point to "tops".
Yes, they were, but TEMPORARILY..
So when I refer to TOP I refer to such ones.
They can be quite serious.
In fact top occurs on weekly basis if you think of very short term charts.
So what I do I look for resistance. Once it forms I know that is a POSSIBLE Top. So i trade that RESISTANCE.
it is similar to trading support.
IMO a MEGA-TOP is about to form in SPY and I base that on the fact of big charts going parabolic. Price ALWAYS finds the highest fool and comes roaring down. Couple that with the fact that money buys support like the rest of us, and if support (temporary tops) are not formed due to one-way rise, they will wait and wait and won't support the falling knife until wherever support and this will equate in strong drop and weakness.
Well, I want a piece of that roller-coaster...
Status:
Currently NO resistance
After the fact - that top-fishing trade was indeed low risk.
In fact it was zero risk looking at the chart, except for the trading fees.
We buy the lowest risk market can offer.
At support the lowest risk trade is long.
At topping patterns lowest risk trade is puts.
A carry position is subject to the same criteria. Friday had to be closed at resistance, then upon resistance violation reloaded at violated resistance and keep carrying it (fees cost).
Obviously you don't understand.
Or just playing with me.
Since this is a serious matter I look at the response and I think it's the former.
It's fine.
We all have different learned charting and strategies.
About "call", I realize it's not the right word for me. I don't like it because it's not what I did.
I did not make a call. I made a chart reading and wrote about my chart interpretation, which should and did repeated itself many times before and that's what charting is about.
A call is something else, probably with a lot of personal opinion in it.
I did NOT put personal opinion
There is ONE thing this and any market can not afford not now not ever ---> CERTAINTY
Certainty to make money for the retail that is.
If that kicks in, and we are really close to this, then EVERYONE will want to make money and lye on the back.
Effectively the Fed will have to print money to keep us ALL home (or on the beach). No working or even will to work will be there.
It's impossible to happen.
It gets worse - unlike in a job, where you are more or less limited in your income, in the market the people will want (demand) to get an ever increased money stream - so an even more impossible situation to exist.
The parabolic move in market/SPY is exactly that, a graphical representation of the certainty occurring and the rest of the yada yada.
It is for this reason that top hunting should become a priority for traders in the current market times.
To take the shots at resistances, and particularly the low risk setups.
it was a great call, but more importantly a correct call.
The risk was near zero, really really small.
And that is rare to see when fishing a top.
Almost the same thing happened on Wednesday (...before the mega drop).
It's the setup and the correct interpretation.
The mega charts are in parabolic mode which is EXTREMELY BEARISH, and the segments seem to shorten the thrusts. The net-net is an invitation to resume top hunting as there is the big AND fast money.
The up-going plane of SPY will stall, then nosedive.
It's the time to be vigilant, or vigilante, whatever trading style fits.
IMO such ST drops like Thursday are MM tests of "the waters".
It's the setups that matter re low risk.
It happened in prior drops too.
So far every drop is a buy op, but they can be strong. Missing them is no fun. And one of those times price will not recover.
It is the chart that will show change of trend.
I did not take the Friday low risk trade as I was not capable to watch for viol of setup which is a necessity for the trade. Viol did happen so my low risk would've become medium risk and don't want any higher risk than necessary.
But Wednesday setup I did take with puts. Apparently i was not the only one judging by the comments around.
And did take calls on Thursday morning (which didn't deter me to see the bearish low risk setup).
IMO it's time to ignore the politicals, the economicals and whatever other comicals "news" good or fake, and focus on catching THIS top.
THIS time is J-U-I-C-YYY.
To me it means Buying dips, but unlike before when I was leaning toward calls or cash during corrections, now is calls or puts with the mindset to catch this top.
It might not seem much of a difference to most.
it's a very low risk to short (and maybe even hold) here
near this week highs
meh, market has been extremely bullish, so about anything would "keep you bullish" and not just for weeks..
If your version of OEPM kept you bullish for weeks then it's not much..
SPY is bullish for extremely longer time than that..
A simple triple moving average would do the job.
OEPM is not meant to see if the market is bullish or bearish or sideways.
But maybe yours is, what do I know..
There are simple EMA , SMA, triple, double, smoothed, DEMAs, crossovers yada yada yada, on and on.
It's not just a moving average and that's it.
Same goes for other indicators'
And same goes for OEPM.
There is simple, more advanced, and even more advanced, who knows until where..
The market has been so bullish even a beginner all has to do is buy and hold for few days and get a profit..
It's borderline ridiculous. Markets used to be more demanding, more risky.
Maybe I did cry before.
I'm not a small man, I admit it.
But Not now.
Not for a long time.
Here's some fresh very hard crying in 343293
There are two opposite things:
Crying, sometimes making pennies, followed by resume of more crying
Make money
Don't cry
Instead what you need to do is
(easy saying than doing)
Break their code, and , well, and yes, join them
Charting is only part of trying to do it.
OEPM just the same (especially the grossly imperfect OEPM use I see around)
Spend your time looking at the patterns.
Scoop out the most repetitive ones.
measure the drawdowns.
You could uncover at least some of the coding.
it's not just one coding
And they are being rotated , mostly at random
And then they are micro codes and Macro codes
For example the macro code of buying from Covid low is about to be terminated or changed but it didn't happen yet and we saw the mad buying of late just as it was in the beginning of the rise
Crying will not help your account grow
Charting alone is a struggle
Now all this is true for trading.
For buy and hold like Buffett this does not apply. Just buy value, especially adding at daily 50, and hold.
But crying does not apply to neither of the situations either.
This market settles the score between the people that believe they are smart from people that actually are.
As a quick filter but not really perfect, the latter tend to be appreciative and respectful.
It is logic. if you have a good employee you will appreciate and respect or he/she ALONG WITH THEIR INVALUABLE CONTRIBUTION will be gone !
That shows you are smart for real.
crashing UP
don't catch the rising knife
yet
Oil at 6-year High
fighting (at) 2018 resistance (76.90)
If that's violated then fast zooming to 100-110
A +30% rise in fuel by fall
To instill buy euphoria at resistance they rose it 3%+ right into it..
"We have inflation under control"
"Fuel prices not important to be included in the calculations"
You did excellent.
One or even 3 days off means nothing for timing, even in the world of options trading.
Not only means nothing but it's outright pure excellence.
Don't mind the after the fact time losing talk.
But think for a moment. You actually believed. And it was correct.
Then why the question marks. The question marks imo greatly diminishes the call. So to be honest I say excellent, but if I look at the question marks I would say no call was made in THAT post.
As a twist, had you said something like: "So, they WOULD/WILL trap the shorts, and open up and run to $424. Tomorrow?"
That way question mark doesn't diminish your credit.
Personally I know you and I know you meant that, so you lose nothing and get full 100% credit. But Had not been the case I would not give you credit because the question mark hedging the call.
You can't put out the noise. Stop trying. It only aggravates you. Just carry on, you do very good.
("beside the point little things":
Missing: Some (any) technical reasoning for the call. This would further empower your call.
Duration of seen trade and/or reasonable target (424 was not presented as end of move or target)
I should take a back-back-baaack seat.
I got too much sensitivity and disrespect.
I can do without disparaging, disrespectful, thoughtless comments, and the never-failing deafening defending silence thereafter.
Well, Nothing is for granted. You take someone for granted you don't deserve them.
You don’t value – it’s gone.
My time and knowledge is gold.
The last hiatus didn’t get the message across
Oh well
B
You are right 100% Vandal.
When it comes to some pee-wee stocks.
With SPY and alike you are still right 100% ... but only in theory !
In practice bottom is always there. Top never.
Bottoms are even forced by Fed (gov).
Latest highs will be broken and SPY will go higher.
The tsunami of created fiat money will do it.
Time and time again.
Here's my achile bs.
The trading conditions are met while I'm in heavy traffic /meeting.
This is not human element !
So you do whatever you can.
Your "cheap" is costly lotto. You have to buy more "expensive" to get it cheap.
It's crazy but true.
Buy ITM/ATM and minimum few weeks time. THAT ... will make them expensive. But that's the right way.
Be prepared TO WAIT !!!
And since time is money, you bet your behind that this waiting game has to cost.
(but not always. Oftentimes you get paid fast)
But you have to be willing to pay the price if you want to touch their honey ... ;)
You are right, Vandal, they ARE roasted.
But you forgot that small detail/element ---> MONEY MANAGEMENT !
Buy buy buy
Buy buy buy
Buy buy buy
p.s. if you think I have 1-2 tricks you are dreaming
This bullshit is extremely simple though.
Just buy support. Nothing else.
Make sure is support.
Be patient.
Hold.
Sell resistance.
Repeat.
Ad nauseam.
You have to develop method where you do not have to be depended on watching.
Just Buy buy buy and hold. I keep repeating this over, and over, and over.
Be like ...
"shall I buy? It's Not exactly the best price relative to pivot but it's ok, I'll gain some money"
...
"lemme see what the SPY is doing.. I don't care, I could watch an hour later for all I care, but let's have a peek. Shall I sell? I donno.. Maybe?!, nah, holding..."
And so on
and so on
Until then you have to...
Don't give up your day job man, LOL
"h" pattern watch.. That's a new hilarious market joke.
Thanks , it's good ;)
Even if this is the top for the next 50 years, the buy support sell resistance holds true 100%
Whereas selling tops is soooo risky
The charting and action is actually extremely simplistic.
For example 414 was support - undeniably.
We watched how SPY reacted off that support. It was a wimpy jump. This tells us that that support is weak and SPY will go to the next support lower. (I assume this is your "h")
It is indisputably impossible to lose money if you buy support with money management and sell resistance (also with money management).
I-M-P-O-S-S-I-B-L-E
You are right (answering your other post) 411 is the next support
(I have rules for my personal engagement though! Not all cases are the same.)
There are multiple support lines and points. Choose the one/s you like.
Resistance just formed but is minor ... for now.
As you can see it's very very very very very very very simple .
The trick to be successful and make a lot of money, the secret sauce is in the money management and OBEYING the chart with confidence and not chicken out like a little wuss.
Obeying means holding and laughing at BS comments around us.
NOTE: There could've been drown way more lines.
Also indicators can help, but as you can see we can render at will any and all fancy shmancy indicators "useless" and can place trades in the right places and ride this garbage with the trend.
A violation of the channel CAN happen, but we have the lines to use (with the guidance), so not a problem.
Knowing your stuff will help you to not get tricked by faltering indicators, or worse, not following the trend and ride the trend up with shorts.
I do use indicators tho, but not without price itself as seen in this rather simple example.
"across all the Green companies....Fuel Cells types, EV battery makers, and EV car makers, they are all getting hammered bad the past month."
(if true, as I didn't check) This is in the face of Oil being bought up up up !
But May is around the corner and Oil should weaken.
Buy only at support, ONLY at support. No chasing !
And exercise money management or you will be used and abused.
i.e. split your buying power in allocations.
"Seems like an Orchestrated correction" ..huh.
So the ramp go-go-go-go from 384 to 418 job did not look like orchestrated then..
LOL
Yes my friend. ONLY calls. Stupid it is.
It would've been so nice if we all were stupid and bought calls at 384 and sold now at 415 some $30 gain or a $15 minim gain per call.
Calls or in cash - NOT puts
Puts is only AFTER support gets violated. And only initiated at resistance.
They will be expensive then, but worth it.
Calls calls , only calls
Find the support you like and Buy buy buy.
The Fed will debase the dollar and SPY will rise - very very simple shit
Even if I don't post my trades you bet I buy calls, you can attribute that "situation" to my account automatically.
But bear in mind that I buy only support, no chasing this garbage.
possible spike by eod to 413 or 416
both require different action
413 is a support so it's a buy
it might even close at the lod
Don't get scared, show MM you don't blink
I agree !
But a (good) trader has answer for any such shit courtesy of Fed-backed MM thugs !
Buy buy buy the dip
413 to 412 is support.
in the same time we now have resistance - more clear after the close
So first resistance at 416, second at 417 (targets for long positions to exit)
A bounce down from these resistances will potentially snowball
411 support for BTD after that (with a moving target resistance)
(there are decimals in my numbers but I cut it off)
Yes I do buy the dip !!!
You can ONLY "Hahaha" if , IF you walk away with big wins !!!
"Did I miss the crash yet?" ;
"Any news about the crash?" ;
"Did the crash happen yet?"
This is serious shit.
Joking like this should be kept in short, I mean VERY SHORT leash !!!
The "crash" should better be replaced with the word "TOP" , however temporary tops tend to be in inflation.
After all, we are here to gain money, and frankly the biggest joke of them all in here is to walk away with big wins !!!
NOT laughing at another struggling peer, or a saboteur Vandering around here.
Walking away with big wins will take care of the saboteur for sure !
Do the big laugh !
Read again Ferda. he didn't say "large presence".
YOU did.
So YOU make the "Big assumption".
NOT him !
I don't know about his hyperbole "A big portion of Wall Street is going to the grave once the squeeze is over! " , I think NOT, but all in all it makes a bit of sense as market history taught us market veterans.
What usually happens, when the little fishes are mostly dead/out, then the big sharks will get to each other jugulars.
They'll eat each other.
So the last (strongest, most fed-connected) shark/s will eat large chunks of he other sharks.
It's a big game.
Lehman was such a case.
I have no clue what's going on right now due to strong secrecy and severe lack of transparency and information.
I should se all this in charts. With some lag, but I should be able to.
Well, I don't know.
You see, in effect you wait for the indicators to tell you (indicate) a Top is here.
For the most part a top is nearly impossible* to tell,, especially by indicators - (*valid for fed pumped stocks like SPY).
See the problem?
I use the price vs indicators not indicators themselves, and price is always better as it's with zero lag and shows resistance whereas indicators lag and usually are numb in overbought for long periods, completely missing resistance forming , essentially "broken" tools.
Is like looking at your speedometer and saying you will stop accelerating and put a break once you reach 55, but the speedometer is stuck at 40 and you keep postponing breaking, now you have 90 in a valley and a curve near a ravine is coming...
So watching the "trees" or the "road" is far more telling of your situation.
I use the same principle with my gas. I always watch my gas two ways. With the gauge, and calculated using distances/trips and/or the "trip" meter. And yes, I had gas gauge getting suck but I knew my situation nevertheless.
I used to calculate my gas to the cheapest gas station so I maximize my saving arriving on empty. I still do it but with a wider margin of error, I don't want to chance it, my time is more valuable to have to walk with a canister.
In machinery i did the same - manually "calculate" the automatic output ("indicator"). This way you could avoid a mechanical crush.
This is credit to my brother RIP.
Very applicable across many fields.
I thought last week will be sideways (NOT down). It didn't happen and SPY just gets pumped higher.
I see no resistance yet.
looking at the supports and at the long term buying programs you can see that it started well inside Trump administration, and continued completely undisturbed.
The conclusion to me is clear --> the president does not matter with regard to the buying programs in the market.
All the rough talk of Trump was just that, talk, and all the campaign tough talk on gains tax and what not also is just that, just talk.
The market moves but the mover is not the president.
Now it is J Pow the master despite his humble appearance?
Hard to say.
I think it is not just one single person, it can't be.
May be even more than one country. We look at the US but it could be 3-5 countries or more.
It's not really a conspiracy but a united front to devalue the currencies (and quality of life in the process).
It also means that SPY has no top even if we all sell.
Because the buying is always bigger than all of us combined.
Even corona couldn't do it and put a top on the SPY.
In fact SPY is going stronger than ever, even parabolic with the corona.
True true, long is the side to make money, short is the side to give away money.
Price relative to 50 is not as relevant as the slope of 50.
And shorting in any point is doable at resistance REGARDLESS of 50 situation. But the odds are always with the long side, ALWAYS.
The uptrend resumes very very fast even in a bear situation. So waiting on sidelines to scoop a cheap bottom is quick and fun.
Re: singles/doubles/triples, 20%/50% 100$, 1000$ etc etc --> this is one of the ways for me to lose money.
I trade.
What the market gave me it is what it is. Big win, small win, no win, it doesn't matter and should not matter.. I don't get self brain washed by numbers and wishes.
NO plans, NO gain target, NO regrets.
No sentiments.
But... had you held the OPPOSITE direction , instead of saying "My biggest losses overall have always been holding overnight." you would say ---> "My biggest WINNERS overall have always been holding overnight."
You should focus on the problem which is not the options apparently.
Do you want to make money with puts?
Do ya ?
Then wait for the support to break.
And only then buy puts at formed resistance test.
You WILL pay more, buy EXPENSIVE puts.
But you WILL get vindicated of your beatings and make money ---> Lots and quick..
(Do it any other way and you are asking to be financially tortured)
The market MAKERS wanted to rise this garbage well above 400 so when they correct it to be enough buffer to have the support ABOVE 400, and still get to keep SPY above 400.
It makes total manipulative sense.
Money is there, given as needed by the new same guy..
MAs do NOT move. Yes, they are called MOVING averages but they do NOT move. They are movED by price.
They are but a reflection of where price HAS BEEN.
Since it is the price that moves them, then it should be the price to be watched and nothing else.
The primary advantage of MA vs price is the smoothing of the volatility.
The second one is trend revealing.
NONE of this is OEPM.
You can call your game anything you like, but just because you call it OEPM it doesn't make it so.
In any event, I don't use any indicator or moving averages for "my" OEPM, no trend-lines nor cycles.
The 1.25% , 2.5% and so on (6%) are good ideas. I don't consider them stupid. There is merit there. I don't use such things. But I can say a system can definitely be formed around a percentage concept. But I won't call it OEPM as it lacks logical connection to OEX and rules (no duh).
When the market was going crazy I didn't see any sure hand "OEPM" trading guidance. Those percentages beards and mustaches went AWOL ..
That's just a baby loss.
I lost more severe than that (not today).
When you go into 1000's then OK, that start to hurt.
But it's never the loss but the look back and thinking about the mistake that hurts (me) the most.
Expensive Tuition
Sometimes the FREE technical advises on here are pure gold yet overlooked completely as if only paid advises would be the good ones
What can you do
"violating" the 50 is fake unless it turns 50. This is why a 1-2 days means nothing, and a tag is a very buy-able trade.
In sideways using 50 is risky, even for "average" indication.
I just use cycles and shorter MA like 10 , like you said.
But only when 50 is useless.
I have found that MA are only useful up to weekly and not in bigger time frames.
In bigger time frames I use bare-bone candles and lines I draw.