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Light ASK , MM's will take this back up soon, Allinder has to come through eventually...
Compression this week, let them keep loading if they aren't wise enough to complete covering because next week we should start running again.
All it will take is one solid break out to launch FNMA into its' next leg up.
I thought the people posting about how it was going to be sold THIS YEAR were just blowing smoke.
I doubt that, the supply is tighter than it has been in the past.
Too many people want these shares for it to dip back under $2 IMO.
Check the volume the past few days - volume hasn't even been high enough to warrant a retraction of that magnitude. It's not just going to come out of nowhere after the crash already materialized. There is a multi-billion dollar interest here and only a limited number of millions of shares up for sale before the next leg up.
There are a lot of people trading this and buying ARCA hasn't been given authority on which direction the price moves they can only buy and sell - they have to pull a profit off. This stock is too big for them to dominate alone. If they aren't correct in their trading they will lose money.
I'm not positive we will break out this week, heavy compression with a lot of people sitting on profits from the runs selling off gradually if they think it will dive.
But after this week if it holds up $2 confidence should be back sellers should be out and the next leg should begin.
Well see about that, I'm pretty ignorant about not only the legalities of this and even the actual specifications of the bailout package.
So maybe you're right, but it doesn't seem so obvious to me as you make it seem.
Really I don't see how the only option the government can take is to sell their entire stake of preferreds this year in 1 big deal. I expect there are more plausible potential courses of action - better courses of action. Either way I highly doubt that the government will sell off their position within Obamas term.
The government held the company for a good number of years and the economy soared... I don't see why they would be in a rush to sell.
I think holding Fannie for a while would be preferable, the government could get their principle back by winding operations down and doing a bit of liquidating in a shorter time span than 30 years.
Either way I doubt the government will sell their full stake of preferreds all at once. It just seems ludicrous to me.
I think a more likely scenario is they sell off their preferreds gradually; over the course of a handful of years - if they choose sell their preferreds to the public at all.
The price is relatively low and demand is extremely high so profit taking will not drop the share price significantly except in the most extreme of cases.
I think there are more than a few parties in the US that wouldn't mind buying up the entire float of commons if the opportunity was presented.
Unless there is a major hitch here there should be a bid war from here on in - until the next rally that is. So retractions likely won't exceed 10% or so before the next big rally tops out. With an upside of 100%+ that is small in comparison and makes for a stock very dangerous to short-sellers.
Right on sounds more likely than plausible. It's going to be a bumpy ride.
OK I concede - I have no idea how Washington politics play out. I really would be surprised if Fannie and Freddie are sold back to the public before Obama leaves office but have been surprised on numerous occasions.
I still think a repurchase program with the quarterly profits would be preferable. Stick with a 50/50 repurchase/dividend and set a conservative target repurchase amount. If the target is not met then shares go up for sale to the public so that the target is met in full. This would mean Fannie and Freddie would be released from government ownership within 30 years - paying the government back multiple times its' original bailout while restoring public ownership of the companies. It's a win-win-win for the government, taxpayers and investors.
But hey that idea is probably too perfect for the government to come through with. But what I do know is the market may be forced into a potentially severe contraction if 100+ BILLION of dollars were demanded from elsewhere to buy up Fannie and Freddie from the government... I don't think now is the best time to reduce the size of the FEDS balance sheet.
I don't think this will stay down as long as it did before the past few breakouts, FNMA has gotten extremely loud and has been very profitable. The trading community is all over it, many longs and potential longs only recently put this on their radars. There are also a lot of profits looking to re-enter the stock and short selling has contributed to some considerable support.
SO IMO the price will be compressed this week as people accumulate and will rocket next week after FNMA breaks past $3, from there it should bounce around $5, possibly even higher - and that's just this months forecast.
Fox Business rocks, good post.
I think it's just lobbyists paying politicians to try and get their hands on the pie. They'll fight for it by blowing things out of proportion and make things seem like they are highly likely of happening that have no shot. Like the government liquidating their preferreds for instance.
I doubt it will happen, the government isn't going to be desperate about selling their preferreds in what is possibly the number 1 corporation in assets, one of the top in profits.
The government isn't going to rush something like this IMO. The S*** flying around the boards today is just a bunch of hot air.
Higher highs, higher accumulation range, beautiful chart. I've been on and off this for 3 years or so now I knew it was going to come back.
I would have been better off only playing the FNMA bounces and accumulating the profits since I got in the market during the recession.
I think that's what's happening.
We wouldn't be holding up so strong if people weren't buying all the free supply.
FNMA at a great price compared to where it could be next year - well people will be quick to load long for the potential.
FNMA is back on after years of lying low, won't be turning off with these massive dividends and profits coming in.
Operators are churning in a ton of powder just holding the stock flat soaking up the weak on the bid.
There is a ton of buying pressure here.
FNMA looks like it could turn into the play of the year.
Thanks for posting this great bit of information.
I wouldn't like to see the governments preferred stake in the company auctioned off any time soon.
The extra liquidity offered to the markets by the government owning this 100 billion dollar stock is good for everyone, the fact that they will be repaid in full and then some shouldn't be presented as a problem. But it seems that people are anxious to get a bigger piece of that pie - as much as the government will let them get away with.
I would rather just see the government negotiate FNMA and Freddie doing a share buyback with a portion of the profits after paying their first dividend. I don't see a better win-win for FNMA and the government than having 10-50% of the profits going towards a preferred repurchase program and 50-90$ of the profits going back to the taxpayers (FED) through the current dividend program.
Let's hope lobbyists don't get in the way of a proper deal with bribes to buy the company out. It's pulling in enough profits to pay back the government anyway. Can't those people just find profits elsewhere, or just be satisfied holding the remainder of stock not held by the government?
MY guess is compression holding under $3 this week and a gap up over the weekend before this starts running again.
FNMA bringing more gains than I expected.
After it breaks $3 I think it will start running up, under that is a BUY IMO.
It's about time MM's took this back up regardless of what the company is up too.
Price fluctuations have just been them pulling off easy money.
Even the dilution played right into their hands.
This is the glory of FNMA , there are hedges that can buy the entire company, only a portion of the float is up for sale.
There is essentially 0 risk for any group that can afford the market cap, as long as they are savvy in their selling.
We all saw what happened last week when some heavy positions tried to unload above $5 over a short period of time. Since every massive position now understands they will have to be patient there won't be any stopping FNMA.
It's day - trading heaven in FNMA.
Not with this shares structure...
Things keeping quiet so people can buy up the cheap shares.
When the volume sparks a bounce no one will be able to get their hands on sub .002's during the run. There aren't many to go around as is, the louder this gets the less likely people will get their hands on a significant number of these sub .002's.
I'd blame the dilution... There's been a lot of buyers this quarter.
I think it will come back there are too many eyes on this since the run for it not to.
These shares are gold because FNMA being government backed is a golden deal. FNMA has mainstream international recognition. The assets contained in FNMA are enormous. Face it, this company isn't going anywhere anytime soon. And being government backed means profits / earnings / financials, etc. will not affect share price to the downside.
Day traders and investors will continue to flock to this because it's the perfect "clean slate" stock IMO. Worth well over 10 billion dollars. This is like a 'safe haven' to put your money in - for the people who are very wealthy. And there are many people and organizations in the world that can actually afford this company in its' entire market cap ATM. So risk is hardly a factor to them aside from the stocks liquidity. Not to mention the stock is fun to play.
That sucks if you were with another broker they would have let you set a trailing stop loss, you could have tightened the trail the higher the price got.
I doubt $1.00 will break that will provide a strong support.
I expect the heavy hands will need time to pick up the pieces from this crash next week.
A lot of people got burned and they will provide adequate resistance for shorts to reign in the price while the whales re-load. Long term investors will provide support and the juice to keep the price moving lucratively.
Compression through the next few days IMO.
Right on the wise stopped off the top close to $5 I'd assume.
Then you're banking on the bear trap.
I think there's too many longs loading for us to see that happen.
I think support at $1 won't be easily broken.
Bear trap? I'm thinking rebound. RSI finally reset looks good.
So BBDA dilution is confirmed. The company is progressing faster than the stock to say the lest... I expect the dilution is partly to blame.
But this is a legitimate company the stock price will follow we should have another rally soon, maybe some of those newly raised funds will be used to increase brand awareness at an even faster rate.
Solid long-term, mod-term who knows what will happen.
How spectacular. FNMA pulling off great moves, doesn't look like that will end anytime soon.
Looks like the APS team was more focused on FNMA ... For good reason.
This thing operated like a turd compared to the last play.
BW and the major shareholders are probably buying in with a hedge at this price.
They might be hedging everything above .003, purely buying under that. At least that's what I would do if I was him.
It is a good price and there are a lot of profits looking to make their way back in from the .0004 - .019 rally.
We don't need a buyback for the PPS to skyrocket, remember what happened last year before the brand was even recognized by 10,000 people. It ran up to .019.
Now BBDA revenues are millions and growing, annual profits are going to exceed the market cap at this price within a few years at this pace... Maybe even by early next year. The profit margin for Koma Unwind is pretty choice.
It's going to run back up just keep in mind buying will be subtle until lines are filled. I'm sure some people are loading pretty sizable lines. BW was brilliant in representing the company at the race tracks. That's going to bring in some great investors.
Shorts are heavy ATM, would expect price to support around .004 before shorts cover and send this running back up.
At least that's how it should work...
Nah this is the bottom.
.0008 we've hit bottom XD
Right, dilution aside this thing is gold for the long-term.