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Jugs, totally agree that the criticism of NGL is due to disappointment of investors. I am pleased with the direction that management is taking with NGL. The stock buyback (if approved by creditors) would be a huge benefit to all of us. Shedding of under performing assets continues to make us stronger and we see the insider buys.
I am not sure what my buying price point is. I am going to go back through the reported earnings report and the power point presentation that they are reviewing with investors yesterday and today.
Any constructive criticism I have is in regards to NGL constantly disappointing investors by missing estimates. Clearly I understand that it is the Analysts that come up with earning estimates but they use information provided by the company. It seems every quarter NGL misses and it is a surprise to everyone. NGL management has a historic reputation for over promising and under delivering and current quarterly results dont seem to be changing that. NGL management either has to either learn how to under promise and over deliver or somehow become a better at aligning vision with investor expectations.
NGL is my core stock and makes up about 60% of my portfolio. TWO, EPD and PNNT make up most of the rest. Thankfully, I am in NGL for the div and not so much for the upside stock price. With that said, even I get a bit tired of getting kicked in the balls with a diminishing stock price. Again, I see the stock price as a reflection of the disconnect between expectations and performance not as a reflection of the value of the company. Maybe I am off base but I think it was the CEO of NGL that said something along the lines of "being disappointed that the positive changes that NGL has completed is not reflected in the current price". If NGL management does not understand the disconnect, they should figure out how to deliver a clearer message.
The reality is, even the people on this board get surprised (not in a good way), and some are as knowledgeable on NGL as any professional in the investor community. We were all talking about $13 to $15+ by the end of the year or soon after and here we are in the Mid $9's. If you asked me 3 months ago if it was possible to get to the $8's, I would have said no, but not now. This is why I am not sure where my next buy point is. At this point, I will either buy in the $8's or when we can break and hold above $10.40.
I love this stock but I also recognize that the whole sector is taking a beating and NGL has a tendency to sell off after earnings/div payment so I have no idea where we go. With all of that said, if I did not have a position in NGL, I would be comfortable grabbing a bunch at this price, A BUNCH. I already have a bunch so I will sit tight for a while.
Interesting stuff
Dallas Conference Today and Tomorrow
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ngl-energy-partners-lp-attend-113000507.html
Investor presentation
http://www.nglenergypartners.com/wp-content/uploads/NGL-Investor-Deck-11-12-2018-Website.pdf
Could not listen to conference call and have not had time to read transcript, any insight into why they missed earnings?
You and me both brother. The question now is, where does NGL go from here? Do we slowly drop because investors do not understand NGL? Do we slowly go higher for the same reason? Do we stay flat until/if NGL gets approval to buy back shares?
Headline shows miss on earnings beat on rev.
Have not read the whole report but we will see what happens today. Not sure if earnings miss is a result of expansion but I am sure we will see what happens as we get clarity from NGL
NGL "buy", target raised to $15
https://www.flashratings.com/stories/421202
NGL "buy", target raised to $15
Nov 7, 2018 6:00 PM EST
Bank of America Merrill Lynch
November 7 (FlashRatings.com) - Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch maintain their "buy" rating for NGL ENERGY PARTNERS LP (NGL). The target price is raised from $13 to $15.
My understanding is, earnings are announced premarket. Hope so
I am not planning on any surprises but have little fear of a big downside surprise. Credit suisse initiated NGL as an outperform, Fitch upgrades NGL to Stable but the most important, based upon your explanation of how S&P does due diligence before coming out with recommendations. They just upgraded NGL to stable from negative after doing all of that due diligence so I am not expecting any huge miss as I would expect S&P to identify any red flags. They would look a bit foolish if they raise NGL to stable to have NGL come out a week later with a big miss. Not saying it is not possible, just do not expect it. Plus I look at insider buying and like where we are.
Agreed.
I am also glad that I gave myself a bit of margin to work with. Previously, I had also sold some of my other positions to make room to buy NGL when it fell below $11 and then again when it broke $10. I am in a bit of a dilemma on how to add those positions back. Currently NGL is about 75% of my stock portfolio, which is insane and I would like to get it back to a more reasonable "only slightly insane" level of 50%. I can either do it with selling in the money calls and hope they get called away or just sell a few hundred at a time until I re-balance. As NGL is such a fantastic play with real upside, I am not in a huge rush. Tomorrow is going to be another event filled day and if we can avoid any big negative surprises, we should be rolling. I dare not think about what happens if they beat on numbers and guidance is detailed and very positive.
Pure speculation on my part but if numbers are inline and they reiterate a safe Div, I am not sure how we do not see $12.50+ by the end of the year.
It will be interesting to see if we selloff at the end of the day but looking at it now, we seem to be holding up well. When I say selloff, that would be ending around $10.70 or so. Just some profit taking before earnings are announced.
We will not be out of the woods until earnings are announced but management has been very good with communication and setting expectations over the last 3 qtrs. I know they have not always done a great job with setting expectations but I feel they have not only learned their lesson but err on the conservative side.
Agree with that.
I try to keep my excitement down and not count the money until it is in my pocket but we have to feel good about the price rise as well as a bit of vindication. If we end the day at $11.00 and you add in the div (.39), getting us to $11.39, that is s $2 gain in about a week.
I do not know where we end the day or what news comes out tomorrow but things are looking up today at least.
I had previously posted that I purchased 2,000 shares for a short term trade when the stock fell to $10.95. I also sold 15 Puts and bought 20 calls (both for January). I sold/closed out 1,000 shares @ $11.25 this morning. I still own over 21K shares. I will close out the other 1,000 shares if I can get $11.75.
Also to be clear, I exceeded my margin comfort level to make these trades and have always planned to close the stock portion out by the end November and ride the options to where ever they may go.
I think we will continue to rise over the coming months but thought today's timing was too good not to take a tiny bit off. I am assuming part of todays huge rise is also due to short interest going from 1.28% to %2.56 just days before we started to sell off and now they are closing out the short position. That being my assumption, I took advantage to sell a bit, feeling we would pull back from this mornings huge jump up.
Agreed but up $1.25?
NGL is way up, not sure why, need to check
Still here
Jugs, I apologize for the delay, everything is great here and I am ok. I have not been on the NGL boards for two reasons. One, work has been busy as we transition from our summer restaurant schedule to our off season catering and pop-up. Second, I knew that anything with NGL hinged on getting closer to earnings and I get tired repeating "the stock is fine"" nothing fundamental has changed with NGL" "I believe current pricing is a head fake". I also have an issue with people asking you to contact the company to see what NGL management thinks. I do not need to speak with the CEO or management to know they think going from $12.25 to $9.25 sucks. I also know, it would be illegal for them to share any kind of inside information and even if they did, you would be to smart to post it. Granted, if you did have some good info, just send me an email that says "I got a sure thing. Anacott Steel".
I am not a cheerleader and I also do not want to try and talk people into buying or holding NGL. That is why, when I bought my last 1,000 shares into my IRA @ $9.36 I did not bother to post it. I think it was one of the few trades I have not posted but I did not want to influence anyone into buying. If people do not see NGL in the $9's is a steal, I will not try and convince them.
I know most folks play NGL for some big upside but as far as I am concerned, I go for the big, fat, safe div. So if I pay $12.50 or $9.50, I do not care as much as those that are buying at $12.50 and are looking at $15 within 6 months and they see it go to the $9's.
So there you go, everything is great and ready to make money.
-----
Pete, got your messages and I am right there with you. Thanks for the info, I do not disagree with anything you say and appreciate the heads up. Sorry I did not get back to you sooner.
S
Generally speaking, I find the Shorts much more educated on how the market works than longs. I doubt they will get smacked too hard. Like Pete said, they keeping doing things as long as they work. When it stops working, they stop doing it and move on.
I believe we are getting to the point where what they are doing will stop. I personally think that they will have to pullback soon, today may be the day, who knows. Yesterday we got a big beating at the end of the day but those shorting NGL have to start worrying that the current price is so low, that anything can launch the price, any news, earnings or an institution just buying cheap shares.
Jugs,
I just want to make sure I put a fine point on something. In no way am I saying that anything leaked from S&P upgrade. First, if their had been, the stock would be going up as the S&P upgrade was very positive (IMHO). I am also not saying that negative info leaked out either from S&P or somewhere else. What I am saying is that I can only explain the drop in price to one of two things. Either, the very unlikely circumstance that someone got wind of a negative earnings report from NGL. Or and in my opinion the one that is far more likely, the price is being manipulated down during an uncertain time.
Right before earnings is always a time of uncertainty and the market has been shaky lately and I think both are being used. I hold firm to the reality that management is turning things around, they are paying off debt and shedding lower performing assets. In addition, we have also seen insider buying and an affirmation of the direction and stability of the div.
I have no idea how we will trade today, pullback to $9.50 or close above $10, neither will surprise me
Thanks Jugs.
It is not my intent to raise doubts only to layout the possibilities, no matter how remote. I only do this because I sleep well at night, even when NGL holdings take a beating. I am in NGL and have only added to my position. If folks cannot sleep at night due to stock prices, my opinion has always been to fix that.
I personally think, that this is a big play by Traders to make money on the downside and add shares at a lower price before earnings are announced. That is my speculation because I really doubt someone has inside info because, if they did, they would be less subtle about how they would trade that knowledge.
It is painful to see the account drop and I do not have any advice but it still comes down to one of two scenarios for me. Either, someone knows something we do not and is trading on inside information (not saying from a legal perspective) and the trades are driving the price down or someone is using the fear in the market and the unknown of NGL earnings to drive the price down to pick it up cheap.
Logic tells me it is the second but we will see. I have said it before, never buy or trade based upon my recommendation. I post what I think and what I am doing only because others do so. I could expand on why I do not THINK someone knows something we do not but it has all been posted before.
Good luck to us all and may god have mercy on our souls.
S
Very well said
I hear you man.
For me, it still comes down to one of two things, a concerted effort to bring the price down in order to pick it up on the cheap. Or someone knows something we dont. Time will tell but my head tells me I will be happy with continuing to buy, my stomach would like me to stop
Pulled from Etrade
S&P PR
The following is a press release from S&P Global Ratings:
-- We are revising our outlook on Tulsa, Okla.-based midstream energy
partnership NGL Energy Partners, L.P. to stable from negative to reflect the
partnership's deleveraging efforts.
-- We are also revising our financial risk profile assessment to
aggressive from highly leveraged to reflect the improving leverage.
-- Finally, we are affirming our 'B+' long-term issuer credit and
issue-level ratings on NGL.
-- The stable outlook reflects our expectation that the partnership will
generate the majority of its cash flows from fee-based cash flows and execute
its growth initiatives while maintaining adequate liquidity and an adjusted
debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 4.5x-5.0x over our 12-month outlook period.
TORONTO (S&P Global Ratings) Oct. 26, 2018--S&P Global Ratings today revised
didn't it go from negative to stable?
Thanks Jugs, you go above and beyond.
I still think this is a big head fake. Traders waiting for the right time to drive the price down. If someone really knew something we did not, my guess is, they would short the stock or buy Puts, just selling stock at this point would not make sense if you knew bad news would be coming out. For me, logically, driving down the price to pick some up cheap makes more sense than someone with insider knowledge.
Sold some other positions and bought 1000 @ $9.94.
Where we bounce I have no idea but if I did not have a position, would I buy here, yep.
It does look like an effort by Shorts to bring it down as low as it can go. Best guess is the plan would be for them to pile on and ride it up. If the market truly thought NGL had problems, it would have been reported.
This is my best guess. First, we have insider buys, debt reduction and no news to drive this downward price.
When I buy, I hold my nose. Honestly, it does not feel great buying here but that is usually a sign for me to buy.
Good luck all
Bought 300 @ 10.15
How I see it.
The first question I ask is, what has changed (besides the price)? As far as I know, nothing. Either nothing has changed and the drop in price is due to short Traders hammering the stock or someone knows something we dont. It is possible that someone knows something we don't but I do not see that as very likely when I see insiders buying within the last couple of months.
I also do not see the volumes of trades that would indicate someone knows something. Regardless, as I was writing this, I picked up 300 more shares
I wont disagree. I do think that the move down has nothing to do with NGL direction or fundamentals. It has to do with market and sector negativity. If we get to $13 or $15 in a year or two, great, but I really care about the div. I do not like the move but I may take a final shot at more if we open down +25 cents
I see we have a new account posting when things turn south, out of the woodwork they come. Please explain
I think I understand but you and Pete know more about how Institutional buyers work. When you say "retail", I am assuming you mean individuals but wanted to check. Perhaps I am using Institutional incorrectly.
With that said, I would expect Institutional buyers to jump on here, the price is just too good
I edited my message to add the fact that all it takes is one institutional owner to exit on a bad day to knock things down, HARD. Volume is good but not heavy, lack of institutional buyers.
Irk is a good word. I am also irked and cannot explain it as more than margin calls and stoploss hitting. What I would not be surprised at is a fall to 10.50 or a bit lower and quick climb back to $11.75. We did this not that long ago, another situation where we got beat up, dropped to $11., fell to $10.(something) and recovered to above $12.
Again, it feels like catching a falling knife but I have to go by what I know in the face of illogical trading. No bad news, just a sector getting beat up.
Perhaps we are looking at one institutional owner exiting the stock on a bad day. That would explain a bit of what is going on. On top of that, the timing makes it easy for other Traders to continue to knock it down, so they can add at lower levels
We have had these days before. A cascade of selling due to stoploss being triggered and margin trading. All we can do is panic, weather the storm or buy the fear, each to his own.
Good luck
Added 500 @ 11.05, have an order in at 10.80 for another 500.
I realize we could drop to 10.50 or a bit lower but with dist, this is too hard to pass on.
Well said.
I am currently evaluating my options. If we drop to 11.05, I will do something, just not sure what. I may sell some more Puts or I may just buy some more shares. I have a couple of option trades going. I could close out the call options I sold for a profit or buy some on the cheap. If we had moved significantly higher, I was going to actually buy some Puts or hedge a different way against news that disappointed but that is only a concern for me if we trade closer to $13.
Good luck all
I did not see this posted so wanted to do so. I found the analysis overall positive. I disagree/have something to add, on two points. First,and I may be missing something but I disagree that liquidity is bad (as report says). Trading volume of 900K/day is solid as far as I am concerned. The second issue reported is "the availability of funds for future growth, which could result in a reduction in the div." The report does not mention the massive debt reduction and shedding of under performing assets so I am assuming it was not taken into consideration.
Maybe this is a fill in the blanks stock analysis but I thought I would share it.
https://reagentsglobalmarket.com/2018/10/18/latest-performance-ngl-energy-partners-lp-representing-limited-partner-interests-nyse-ngl/
Have a good weekend
Why NGL pulled back.......
I have no idea and on top of that, I do not really care. Here is what I know, nothing about NGL has changed since last week when we were up to $12.25 and everyone was happy. For the last 3 qtrs, the price was had small runs up, and hard slides down. Traders take profit when they can. It crossed my mind to take profits on the 2K shares I bought recently but I did not because I sold the calls against them and will either wait for them to get called away or expire worthless, that was my plan and I am sticking to it.
If at any point we slide to $11.25, I will buy a bit more this close to earnings/div. Each person invests as they see fit and in a way that works best for them. I never own more stock than I am comfortable with. Comfortable with large swings are part of it. Traders are experts at driving the emotions of greed and fear. They have to in order to make money and if they are making it, those in fear are losing money. Traders will affect the price over a short period of time but they cannot long term.
When the market lost 1400 points over a 2 or 3 day period, NGL's true colors showed. It was a safe harbor for investors and it will stay that way. We have a big, fat, safe div and in times of trouble, that is worth a bunch.
Nothing in NGL management focus or fundamentals have changes in the last week. As far as I am concerned, management has NGL headed in the right direction. It may be slow, but it is getting there. I firmly believe that some folks will look back a year from now and wish they had purchased at these levels. Others of us will look back a year from now and be glad that we held onto our convictions and bought as much as we could.
Have a good weekend
My TD shows the same thing
I do not know if we pullback to $11 but if we do, I will add again. At this point, I am not hoping for a pullback as I loaded up when I could. Having held NGL for a period of time, nothing will surprise me. If we go to $13 or briefly pullback. What we did see earlier when the market dropped 1400 points over a couple of days is that NGL traded strong. This could be because margin calls forced people to sell winners (which NGL was not) and/or NGL is a solid div play and a flight to safety.
The fact that I do not feel like we will pullback to $11 tells me we probably will. I say that only half jokingly. Regardless, right now, NGL is my safe harbor.
I dont know about a 40% gain in 12 months but as we close in on dow 30,000, I will start to take action. I have no qualms shorting but as they say, the market both goes up longer as well as falls further and faster than we expect. The point being, I may go to cash at some point and not try to time when I short the market. I have given some thought to an exit strategy and while it remains fluid, I will move from selling out of the money calls to "in the money" calls and stay in cash when the stock gets called away.
This is not happening anytime soon so do not read into it, I am only commenting because other did. Also, my situation may be different as stocks make up less than 20% of my retirement assets and I am in my early 50's.
Good luck to us all
Thanks Jugs, I was very pleased with NGL and how well it held up. I have no idea if I will be adding on top of what I already have so we will see. Being so heavy into NGL is the only thing that keeps me from buying. If I do, I will post it.
Have a good weekend to all