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Agreed. Hope it continues.
True on the 5 day but I use a combination of the RSI and Williams% and look at the 1/3/6 month. if you look at the 3 & 6 month, NGL consistently pulls back when Williams spikes (usually into overbought) and RSI is above 50.
The support levels I have for NGL are $10.63 and $10.15. Would be nice to settle the day above $10.63 but if we fall to $10.25, I will be selling more Put options. The Puts are priced nice but dont want to jump on them too early. Right now you can get .60 for the Feb, $10 Puts.
We went up fast and furious so a pullback is not a big surprise. We are still overbought but clearly it is getting better.
Could not agree more.
Unless oil pops or some other major news event (Trade with China or the budget war gets resolved), I still expect (and hope I am wrong) that we pullback a bit more. After all, up 20% in two weeks, awesome.
We do have two other things that could continue our push up. One, short interest is high and I think shorts will want to cover so every time we pullback, buyers will come in to close short positions. Second, we have earnings and a div payment coming up. We know that NGL gains upward momentum the closer we get to earnings.
God help the shorts if management actually meets or beats expectations.
Well....Not true. Just do a search on: raymond dabney lawsuit.
More news stories/lawsuits than I have time to post
Thankfully.
I have never been afraid to put my thoughts, ideas and predictions out there. I also post my trades, usually right after I make them. Except for some of my option sales.
I like it when I miss the mark and still make money. I still expect a small pullback but if we pop in the morning and I can get the right price, I will sell covered calls, either the Feb or april $12.50
Yesterday I got 300 @ $15.26. Most of my dry powder is gone but I will continue to look for places to add.
I hope so. If we pop enough, I would like to sell the Feb $12.50 covered calls. I doubt we will pop enough this week but we will see. Regardless and I hope I am wrong, I still expect a modest pullback. Again, the pullback prediction is based upon TA, so take that for what it is worth
Sitting here @$11.15, I hope we can close above $11 but I have my doubts. I am usually wrong so lets hope it stays that way.
Not sure in what context you are using "leverage" but the correlation between the Dow/Oil/NGL is very clear if a comparison chart is done. We also know that energy sector as a whole as been hammered.
I expect NGL to pull back a bit as it is up 20% in the last two weeks. Doing a 90 day chart of RSI & Williams, you will see a pullback when Williams spikes (usually but not always into oversold territory) and the RSI is above 50. If oil continues its uptrend, a pullback may be delayed until it flattens out. With that said, I expect the overall up trend of NGL to continue. I suspect that some of the current recovery is due to short covering. Short interest increased above historic (5 years) levels in the last two months.
Lets remind all that NGL has seen several upgrades in the last few months, reiterated a safe div, insider buying & aggressive debt reduction. I have publicly criticized managements inability to set and meet expectations but some of that is priced into the stock.
Have to love it. We are up 20% from 12/27, the day the shorts came out of the woodwork. Would be interested to hear from some of them.
Yes, we will have rain, maybe tomorrow but like any crop, rain is needed to grow.
I really appreciate the quick response.
As they say, insiders sell for many reasons but only buy for one. Almost all of the stocks I own have insiders buying, its what I like to see, With that said, I am starting a position of 300 shares.
I see, looking at RSI on the day. I usually compare RSI & Williams over 3 & 5 days and the 1 & 3 mos and depending on historic correlation, I stick my finger in the air and guess.
I will be happy if we close above $11 and stay there. NGL has enough short interest that we could be seeing a squeeze.
Both RSI and Williams% are well into short term overbought. Would expect a small pullback, maybe .20-.30 but that is a guess. We are running up but we have seen quick pullbacks. That is the reason I do not try to trade this and just buy and hold. I do sell options from time to time
Hey Jugs,
You mentioned NRZ on the other board but I did not want to make any comments there. I started looking at this again. You had mentioned it before but now with the pullback in price and subsequent start of a recovery (in price) I thought it deserved a second look. My initial impressions:
What I like is this:
7 div increases in 5 years
No div cuts in over 5 years
Consistent earnings- Beat 11 out of the last 12 Qtrs
Analyst price targets $18-$20
Decent call option action
I like what I am seeing with TA (RSI & Williams %)
What I do not like:
Insider selling by CEO, one time and stock was trading $3 higher.
No Insider buying
longest period without a div increase
Again, just started to look at this again but I think I can dip my toe in the water.
Good, I have 500 shares
Still have my shares
Have to be pleased with today's action. I noticed that the last after hour trade was $10.89.
On a side note, the short interest on NGL spiked mid december, above 7% (I think). The last time it was above 5% was Mid Sept 2017 the stock climbed from appx $10 to $16. The climb was not straight up and had pullbacks, so lets not start spending our money. My point in posting is to share and see what people can add. One data point does not a trend make but we have folks on this board who have access to more info and charting experience than I do. Of course a spike in short interest can also set us up for a short squeeze, wouldn't that be nice?
Article mentions NGL so I wanted to post it:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4231768-101-end-o-december-10-percent-yield-dividend-wallstars-toast-tremendous-target-gains-merger?
Closed at days high, another good indicator
Interesting. I think from the date of this post, NGL has gone up around 20% while the DOW is up 4.5%. Now that is remarkable!!!!
Awesome, Awesome, Awesome,
This is why the NGL board is so successful, learning new info all of the time. I absolutely did NOT take any seasonality into consideration and I should have.
Pete/Jugs, sent you an email concerning NGL
Agree with all of it and really appreciate you posting the TA. As you know, depending on how and what a person looks at, the TA can expanded or focused. One of these days I will have to put a bit of effort into posting my charts.
Here is what I have as support and resistance levels:
Strong support
$9.75
Strong Resistance
$10.60
$11.00
$11.80
My resistance levels become support once the stock closes and trades above these levels for several days and the RSI falls below 50. If you look at NGL 1/3 year RSI, you will see that NGL generally pulls back from RSI of 60 but if it does break it, could go to 80. These are thing I look at that some people do not for various reasons. With that said, I like RSI for timing my buying/selling more than anything else.
Good luck to us all
Conviction keeps us calm.
It is nice to see how NGL has rallied very recently and I hope it continues but the reality is, we could pullback a bit with profit taking. I point this out only because when/if we do, we will probably have folks popping onto the message board posting about how the sky is falling. How NGL is a dog and how we should avoid the stock. We know this happened recently and just days later, we are back above $10.
I point this out only because some of us have shared these and other boards together and have ridden the ups and downs. I would hate to see someone panic and sell into a profit taking day. Honestly, I like when people with a contrary point of view, post. It helps me to question myself and to dig a bit more. With that said, many times, posters who are negative have nothing of substance. When this happened recently, Trueheart did what we should all do and questioned the poster for specifics. No specifics were ever forthcoming and that tells you all you need to know.
Good luck to us all
Great info and really appreciated.
We had a great day to day and NGL held up like a champ. My only caution is that NGL could go to $10.50 to $10.75 and profit taking takes place pulling us back below $9.75. We have seen it before but I do not consider this anything to worry about, only a caution to pick buy spots. I believe traders will continue to drive NGL down when they take profits because it has worked in the past and traders do things until they stop working.
The reason I do not try to trade NGL and buy back at lower levels because I am not smart enough to do it. I do sell call options to hedge my risk a bit but I do not want to sell NGL in the hopes of buying back at a lower price because at some point, I would miss the boat.
In my heart of hearts, I believe that at some point, NGL will run up hard and fast and we could see $13+ over a short period of time.
more getting numb to it
Owned this a while ago and just started looking at it again. Of course the GS downgrade hurt but maybe get a bounce at $60. If it breaks $60, I think the next level of support is $45 but would have to double check. The stock has not traded below $60 in over 5 years so support levels under that are probably not applicable.
Would feel better if we did not have insiders selling. Will keep watching.
Hey folks, I hope all is well with you.
I have been having issues posting today. I know I have been away for a while but I should be around a bit more. I am still in NGL and respect when people post who have a contrary point of view. One of the things I do when looking at people who post about NGL is to see what kind of track record they have.
I will be honest, I have not been impressed with the knowledge of NGL or when looking at other stocks they post about, how accurate they are.
Nice to see
I believe investors will lose their money
Thank you.
same to you and everyone on the board.
Thanks man, I appreciate that.
I use to play a lot of poker and actually made plans to do it professionally but other opportunities came up. The reason I mention this is because sticking to a plan the way I avoid second guessing/regrets. It is too easy to get caught up in the emotion of cards/stocks/life. Make a plan when you are clear of mind and stick to it. I do reevaluate my plans but only when I am emotionally calm and no external factors are in play, such as dow down 500 or my stock down 5%.
I believe in NGL and have previously stated if I did not have any position, buying in the low $9's would be a no brainer.
I got nothing for you today.
Hold a gun to my head and make me guess,I say we end above 9.35 today. But for me, today, I will keep low and watch. Some days it is better to hunker down, for me, it is one of those days.
My plan remains the same, buy if we break below $9.
Not great news but not really a surprise. I see this as a byproduct of management's continually missing estimates. When management loses credibility, it opens the door for analysts to aggressively discount projections.
I am as pro NGL as anyone and hold 20k shares but I cannot give management a free pass qtr after qtr. As a former senior executive in healthcare, who worked at a publicly traded company, I know how estimates and forward looking projections are made. You must discount your projections to be safe. NGL seems to make projections based upon best case scenarios and run with them.
We would have been better off if they had just put out achievable estimates/projections and hit them or at least come close. Why does NGL have a discounted price/book value? Lack of faith and trust in what management says.
The silver lining as far as I am concerned is, you get to add shares at a lower price, for what it is worth.
Zacks Investment Research Upgrades NGL Energy Partners (NGL) to “Hold”
I do not have a Zacks account but this is the headline I got in my email
RyGuy,
Well done on keeping the loans under control. I was shocked when my daughter went to college and I calculated the actual amount paid on school loans. Holy crap, you borrow $40K (for 1 year), they defer payments until graduation, yet the interest accrues. If I had not paid it off early, I think the total would have been about $100k.
I am glad you are on top of it, such a scam.
I understand. My issue with NGL has to do with management doing a better job of setting expectations. Investors hate surprises and that includes me. Management does a fantastic job on driving the company and the new direction is great. IMHO, if they did a better job of communicating to the investor community, promise a bit less, the road would be a bit less rocky. Granted, we will end up in the same place but just worse for wear.
In no way do I see NGL going down the tubes. The only shares I sold are the ones I posted about. At this point, my buying is on hold until/if we break below $9.
I hear you. As far as ending the day in mid to low $8's nothing would shock me. I would not be shocked to close in the green or .75 in the red.