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Yeah, what you said
We know that they will keep doing it as long as it works. Have to love the way it is trading today.
jugs, another great stock pick, Bar none.
Stock price going up. Congrats to all
Agree with everything you just said Pete. Man you are smart.
I think we will get there pretty quick. NGL has been traded hard and will continue to be until it does not work. Once it fails to pullback, it will run. My guess is, Getting to $12.25 may take a days or weeks but $12.25 to $13 will be fast.
I was able to buy back all of my covered calls, for a loss of $900 but I think it will be well worth it. I also made a purchase of 500 shares at $11.30.
For me, this earnings was confirmation of managements ability to meet expectations.
I think we should call it the NGL Money cult
I bought back 60 of the 90 covered calls I sold. Mine were April and July, $12.50. Lost $600 on the trade but like the upside too much and did not want to risk them getting more expensive.
Thanks Pete, cant listen in, traveling. Keep us updated.
Thanks
S
Trading today should make you feel better
Agree. We will get real upgrades along with sites like SA jumping on the band wagon. They have beat NGL up for so long that we will quickly see articles about giving NGL a second look and crap like that. Never cutting edge, just a bunch of sheep
Hell yes
Yeah. I have not read the report yet but need to understand the numbers. NGL has been selling assets so not sure how the asset sales (if any) are impacting earnings/per share. REgardless, the report is very positive with the stock buy back. With that said, they seem to be making it clear that buying shares back will be a lower priority. The confidence of the banks to approve stock buyback is telling.
Also, NGL has enough short interest to get a squeeze going.
Earnings
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3431550-ngl-energy-partners-beats-0_57-beats-revenue
Received approval from lenders to repurchase up to $150 million in common units
Nice. Not sure if it will work out but I always respect it when people call their shot. Well done and hope you are right and if not, at least you had the stones to call it
Maybe I am reading it wrong but it looks like interest in Sears is increasing, not evaporated. Am I wrong?
Jugs,
You and I are usually on the same page but I disagree with you a bit on this one, respectfully of course. I saw yesterdays trading as nothing more than post div selling along with sympathetic trading to oil. Looking at a 1 year chart, you we can see that NGL does generally trade along with oil. As we know, NGL should not be tied that directly with oil but many times it is.
The silver lining to me was that we clearly had bargain hunters come in at the end of the day and snap up NGL.
I have no idea what will happen come earnings but I have learned to not be surprised if it disappoints, hopefully within reason. I have been pretty vocal about my disappointment with managements ability to hit targets that they set. Again, I am here for the div and unless it is cut, I will continue to hold my 20k shares and sell covered calls to offset some downside risk.
I will note that institutional ownership has gone from 71% to 74% over the last month or so. Also, we still have a decent amount of short interest, if the earnings news is decent/good and/or they announce the buyback is moving forward, I will be buying back my covered calls quick.
Very glad to hear it
sky not falling yet. flat for the day
Good points. Oil is down pretty good today also.
I get it.
I am not expecting a Home Run announcement come earnings but if we get it, great. I am here for the div. I have done ok and protected my downside by selling covered calls. As long as the div stays in place and we trade above $9, I am happy.
just picked up 500 @ $10.55. that will be it for today.
Old Man? Pete referenced Johnny Weissmuller, he gets the old man award for that.
I have lots of faith in NGL
Nice cult to be in. Fat div cult. We are still up big from the low at the end of December. I am sure we all remember that
Nice scalp
Well done on picking up NGL @ $10.55.
I am actually looking at putting my dry powder to work around 10.40 but maybe buy a bit higher and sell the covered calls. Will also check out the pricing on selling the $10 Puts
It depends when you bought. If you bought at the end of December, you are still up huge. I am not sure if anyone really expected the stock to go up 30% in the last 5 weeks and not expect some pullback. But, I always say, if the volatility of a stock makes people lose sleep, sell it.
The pullback arrived. We are no longer overbought on the Williams%, as a matter of fact, now showing oversold. RSI is still above where I like it, neither overbought or oversold. I will wait a bit before putting to work my dry powder.
That is clearly a good investment. Well done.
Look, I am not arguing with you but unless you owned it over 10 years, not sure how it can be a good investment. Go back 10 years and it hasn't even beaten the dow. I am not even sure if the div keep up with inflation. If you define a good long term investment as something better than a savings account, sure, it is good. Most retail businesses are struggling, with that said, pharmacy retail is better than most
I agree that the micro trend will be an aging population, better (IMO) to invest in pharmaceutical like JNJ or ABBV, than drug retail.
I understand but they are still facing a watchful fed, future legislation, stiff competition and other headwinds. If I am wrong, I will lose money.
I appreciate the civil response.
I will say this, WBA has not traded above $86 (or so) in the last 3 years. UBS initiated a sale recommendation with a price target of $70. Now, to be honest, I do not hold much stock in analysts so lets throw all of those out.
I find WBA management to be suspect. Not that long ago, WBA was fined $34 Million for misleading investors. WBA is now under watch by the feds as they have already been caught inappropriately billing Medicare and Medicaid and fined appx 270 Million or more. They face headwinds now that CVS purchased Aetna, Trump administration is looking at eliminating backdoor rebates and other changes to limit drug prices. The backdoor rebates are what allow the pharmaceutical companies to get creative with billing and reimbursement. God knows what Amazon is going to do in the prescription drug market but the bottom line is, WBA is facing more restrictions, more competition and more oversight. You also have some recent insider selling, in and of its self, not significant but with everything else, just the cherry on the cake.
Sure would like to see this hit $75 so it can be shorted
I am not sure what my next play is. I still have $25k in reserve. I sold 90 covered calls, most July $12.50. If news is great out of earnings call, I will buy them back. Or, I may buy some cheap March/April calls before earnings.
I agree that NGL is dead money and anyone who has held NGL for more than 3 months knows we sell off after div/earnings. I do not have a lot of hope that earnings/performance this quarter will launch our stock price to the moon but a confirmation of buy back will. Maybe not to the moon but $13 to $14, near term.
Also not trading advice, just talking
The last trade on Etrade (now, 4 hours before open) is showing $11.35 so they took out the div. Would like to see a close above $11.50 but you never know. We have seen NGL sell off after div but earnings come out in 6 days so hopefully it will hold up until the announcement.
Big volume
I am a fan of selling covered calls. I sold the July $12.50 for .70 when the stock was trading at $11.40. Even though the stock moved up .50 since then, I could buy them back at .85 or so. I find them to be a nice hedge and you always have the option to buy them back as not to have the stock called away. If earnings does not impress and the stock pulls back, you have some downside coverage. Again, if news is good, you can always buy them back. Another strategy would be to sell the July $12.50 calls for .85 cents and buy the March $12.50 calls for .35 or so. If earnings are great, the March calls will cover you on the July covered calls.
I really like to trade covered calls in my self directed IRA account. It allows me to add funds to an IRA beyond contribution limits.
Was hoping this hit $75, that would be a good place to short this.