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The EPA news is what you covered in point 1
You responded to Pete but I do not think you touched a nerve. I did not read that in the response. As far as someone posting having multiple accounts, it happens all of the time. If you have a new account or only a few posts, and you seem negative on a stock, I am always suspect. If it is the same scenario but the person is long the stock, I am also suspect. I am always looking for the other side when evaluating my trades.
In addition, I also look at the timing of the comments. If you would have come out during a time of strength in the stock, that is one thing. When the stock is trading weak and someone comes out with comments that do not appear to be positive and they do not provide any links or concrete info, I am again, suspect.
As either you or Jugs have pointed out, the stock would rally if they raised the div but why raise the div if it is already 14% of stock price?
I believe that we have a solid chance of getting the stock to run twice in the next 6 to 12 months. First, either this or the next earnings will confirm that Management is on the right track and at current compression levels (traders push to $11 vs $13+ if NGL had better rep) we run up. Second run up will be a div increase. I think this will happen, once the div gets close or south of 10%, Management will push for a div increase. The div increase is the wild card. Management may want to reduce debt further before increasing div.
I feel compelled to say that I am purely speculating based upon statements by management and my own common sense. Both should be viewed with suspicion because I am not an expert. First, I made my retirement money in real estate when the market crashed so my expertise does not fall in the stock market.
At the end of the day, my goal is a safe investment with a safe div. As long as Management does not cut the div, I do not care too much where it trades. While emotionally I hate to see my trading account drop in value, my logic tells me to buy. Of course, my emotions have no problem telling logic "I told you so" (always in my wife's voice) when we drop more. Logic is not bothered by "I told you so", because buying was based upon logical, non-emotional reasons.
Compared to many, I only lost a little but what does it hurt to join the lawsuit?
Thanks Pete, I not only agree but would like to extend a heartfelt invitation to anyone who is negative on NGL. I wish we had someone who could articulate the negative in a clear manner (Like an anti-Jugs/Pete). Not the general stock bashers who hate management. I already understand that management has historically disappointed investors so I would love a new argument.
Tell me why the div is not safe because as long as the div is safe, I will keep holding/adding to my position.
Did it again.
Sold 10 Puts, January 2019 for .65.
clearly if I was ok with buying @ $12.50, I am thrilled if I get them at $9.35 ($10 - .65 = $9.35).
Just to be transparent, I may sell another 10. I am waiting to see how much it can be pushed down. I will put in another sale at .75,
I am not recommending anyone do what I do. Just putting it out there so you can learn from my mistakes. If you sell Puts, it does hit your margin account.
Jugs, you are probably right, it may be nothing more than an analyst (or whomever) at WF, just throwing out $11 because they need to put our recommendations. Very possible but to cut the price 30% yet WF maintains Market Perform on NGL makes no sense. Seems a bit shady.
A month or so ago, NGL was at $13.25 and it was "High Fives and Back Slapping", today we are at $11, yet nothing has changed. What has NGL done to lose $2.25 in value? Nothing. Unless NGL management comes out with concerning comments, I see us running up HARD into earnings. I think that this next earnings report will push us higher. NGL has been making huge changes and have drastically cut debt. NGL management has disappointed many for a long time. Over the last couple of quarters, that have shown true changes in direction. These were blown off by many analysts and bloggers as "one qtr does not a good stock make". After continued positive changes and debt reduction, still management was doubted. This has continued yet at some point, the Doubters will have to acknowledge that NGL change is not just a one or two quarter thing but a true directional trend.
This concerning Wells Fargo, taken in part from an article earlier this year:
......
The company's litigation expenses ballooned to $3.3 billion before taxes. That's more than triple what Wells Fargo set aside during the previous three months.
Wells Fargo (WFC) said the legal costs stemmed from the bank's infamous fake-accounts debacle, mortgage-related investigations and "other consumer-related matters." Most of those expenses are not tax deductible.
The litigation costs show that Wells Fargo has yet to shake off more than a year of controversy that has tarnished its reputation, hurt its stock price and dinged profits.
https://money.cnn.com/2018/01/12/investing/wells-fargo-earnings-tax-law-legal-trouble/index.html
............
So, to answer the question, would WF slam NGL in order to manipulate the price lower for their own financial gain. My opinion, which is based upon, known/alleged, documented shady/unethical/illegal behavior, is yes. It does not surprise me and I am not even outraged. I just look at WF and say, ha, doing shady stuff again, well played.
That is my two cents. Now, I would like to say, I never want people to follow me or do anything based upon what I said. Unless I say "I recommend you buy", I am not recommending anything.
I post most of my trades/strategies and thoughts because other's do and it is only fair I do the same. If my opinion ever differs from Jugs or Pete, please, do not listen to me. Jugs saw us breaking $12 and even possibly $11, when I thought it would be tough for Institutions to push us down through $12 and even if they did, it would bounce quicker than it has. I lost $700 on selling Puts when I had to buy them back when it was clear that I made a bad call. My decisions were based upon a review of some basic technical charts (RSI, support/resistant levels, historic BO points), managements debt reduction efforts, shedding of lower performing divisions/assets, insider buying and a reiteration of the dividend for 3 qtrs and with such conviction that a cut to the div is not in the cards. A safe, .39 cent a qtr div should have carried us to $13+ (IMO). Regardless, it is worth it to me so any drops in the price are used as a buying opportunity. I am in it for the div and anything else is a plus.
Wait for the stock to hit $11 and make the bold call to change price target to $11.
Bought 250 shares @ $11.03
Jugs,
Your a good man and really deserve a lot of recognition for what you contribute. A casual reader may think you pump the stock but anyone who really reads your posts knows you call your shots in advance, give entry points and provide very detailed information and are right more often than wrong. Why do you do this? I have been in a couple of stocks with you, thus read your posts on those stocks so I know why you do it, you just want to help. It reminds me a lot of my father in-law who did the same thing. That guy would run across the street to help someone load groceries. He was always helping someone with finding a job or creating community programs, that dude just wanted to make the world a little better.
I sincerely doubt that any case could be made that you gain anything from spending so much time providing great info. Seriously, the NGL board only has a small number of people who post here. I just wanted to say, I appreciate you and what you do.
Personally, I make my few contributions because it only feels fair to give what I can when you have provided such info, back to the days of ALDW. So with that said, here is where I stand with things:
My current thought is that short term, we have max $1 ($10.30) to the downside and $2.50+ to the upside. The closer we get to earnings, the harder it will be to keep the price down. I also believe that within 9 months we will be $14. Regardless of what happens in 9 months, this is a fat div that is safe, safe, safe and that is all I need to know. I make these points so the mindset I have for NGL is understood. If it drops .50 cents, I see it as a buying option. I am not thrilled but will take it.
An update on my trading
-My last purchase was 300 shares last week when we dipped below $11.
-My trade of selling 10 Puts cost me $700. You would think that losing on the trade would make me hesitate to do it again but I will probably do it again this week.
-If we drop to $11.05, I will buy more. Or sell Puts
-If we drop below $11, not sure, but will buy if we drop to $10.90 but if we close below that, may wait to $10.40.
-Have transferred additional funds into my Etrade account in order to take advantage of another significant drop. Like you, I sleep at night because I keep enough liquidity to cover my margin.
-When we bounce, I think we could easily rush back to $13.50.
I also appreciate Pete and a few others who contribute but you most of all.
Thought I was done buying 300 @ 10.93
Everything is good at the restaurant. Things will start slowing down but as far as jobs go, it is great. The money is horrible but I look at it more as a hobby I make a few dollars at.
Sorry Jugs, I had intended to respond to this earlier but we are still busy at the restaurant. I do not struggle with this at all. I invest in stocks the way I do in real estate, buy at a price I think is worth it. That is it. Clearly, what I can sell something for today is important but I do not invest for today so I am more concerned with what I will be selling something for and what not what I paid for it today.
I still feel that it is going to $15 within a year. I know the .39 div is safe and have no concern for a cut in div. In addition to that, we are oversold and from a technical perspective, I expect upward pressure.
I bought at $12.05 and another 300 at $11.65. I will continue to buy. I love this price and feel great about the ability to buy more shares at this price.
I sold the October $12.50 Put Options for 50 cents, meaning that the person who bought them, has the right to sell me their shares anytime before expiration for $12.50. So if the stock falls to $9, I still have to pay $12.50. If the stock never falls below $12.50, I make 50 cents and never have to buy the stock.
You sell the Put option if you think the stock is going to go up and buy a put option if you think it is going down.
I hear you. First, I would always recommend for folks who are looking for advice to trade on and you have a choice of going with what I say or what Jugs does, go with Jugs, he knows far more about this than I do.
I do not disagree that the Traders out there may drive us down to $11.90 or lower. My thought is, they may but I think they will be facing a smaller pool, who will want to sell. I think we may have had enough good news over the last 6 to 9 months that people will want to hold what they have and maybe pickup more on smaller pullbacks. Combine that pure speculation with my belief we are going to $15 in the next 12 months, I am happy to pick up more at $12.05. I think it will be harder to break through $12 than it has in the past. I am even thinking about buying 250 @ 12.25.
My last thought was, while we may be facing 4 to 6 more weeks of weakness in price, all it will take is 1 good upgrade or a positive Analyst article and we go back to $13.25 in a heartbeat.
Again, if I believe the div is safe and the stock is going to $15, purchasing around this level or a bit lower is a safe play.
I agree with Jugs, we differ only a little bit on a best guess on how far the price will drop. I see significant support at $12 and have put in an offer of 500 at $12.05. $11.90 is a support level that if we break it, the next level is the mid $10's. Personally, I only see these dips as buying opportunities. We know the div is SAFE so any opportunity to pick up more is welcome. What I have seen is that it has been much harder to drive the price down on any given day. In the past, you could easily see daily drops of 50 cents ending on the low of the day, now it is much tighter. It feels as if the traders have to work harder to drive the price down by .20 cents each day.
If you have no desire to add to your position and you are on margin, I can see why the drops can be depressing but non of this is much of a surprise. Granted we had hoped that the changes management have made would drive the price higher but I do see a tighter trading range. Previously, we could see daily swings of 50 to 80 cents swing, now it is much tighter.
Jugs previously used the term "compression" and I think this is accurate. On one hand, management has taken great steps to turn the stock around by paying off debt and shedding under performing assets but we still fight the reputation they have of missing guidance.
Personally, I hope we stay low 12's or lower for the next 2 weeks so I can reallocate some cash into my trading account and pick up some more shares.
Hey Jugs,
Did not know you were in WPG, I was amazed to see you comment here.
I have been doing some research and WPG caught my attention. If you have the time, I would appreciate your two cents on WPG. Recent insider buy is always nice but just stared to look at likelihood of div cut. Also looking at timing of buying. Maybe wait until RSI drops to 40 or below.
I will keep researching but thought I would pick your brain a bit
Shawn
Some may take exception to my simplistic explanation but Selling a Put options means you can be obligated to buy the stock. So I sold the 10 contracts October 19th, 2018 $12.50 for 55 cents (Total $550). So as long as the stock stays above that, I have no worries. For me to lose money, the stock would have to fall below $11.95 ($12.50 strike price minus the 55 cents).
If you are bullish on a stock and have no concerns with buying the stock at that given price, you are good to go. I would happily buy NGL between $11.95 to $12.50. It is not a sure deal because as Jugs has pointed out, time and time again, we can have a soft 6 weeks post div payment, I would be surprised if we fell below $11.95 but not too shocked.
I forgot to add, a big downside is cash/margin is reserved against the trade in the event you have to buy. To be clear (at least for my account), when I sell the Puts, my buying power is reduced as if I actually bought those shares.
Sold 10 $12.50 Oct 19, 18, put contracts. Will see if NGL pulls back a before selling more.
Thinking about selling some Puts.
Just putting it out there.
Thanks Justin, it will continue to be an interesting adventure
I agree except I see the main concern for investors is that this stock is a scam
Nice, still waiting to get mine.
Funny, was just about to post on this. If these types of recommendations an "Analyst" puts out, I am in the wrong business. What a bold prediction they made
My thoughts are pretty straight forward. I think Traders keep doing what works until it doesnt. Once the initial euphoria wears off, I think traders will take some shots during low volume days. I also think that people are seeing the potential in NGL and will try and play into earnings.
Again, it is just me supposing
Feeling good and see any serious pullback as a buying opportunity. Where "serious" starts, I am not sure but would definately pick up more in the low $12's but that may not be possible. But if we get some crazy profit taking day, I will buy there.
While I still expect some trading volatility in the stock, if feels like a new day with NGL. Jugs has pointed out in the past, about how the 6 week period after earnings, NGL trades weak. I agree with this and expect that it may continue, even though we have had some really good days. What I am really excited about is the 6 weeks after that. I feel like we will get many more people jumping on board before the next earning announcement.
This is me just speculating.
You have been preaching about NGL for a long time, they are starting to listen
Lets see what happens at the end of the day. Normally, Traders have been able to take profit at the end of the day and push the stock price down. Lets see if things are changing
Len,
I am very happy to hear that you continue to be cancer free. This is awesome news indeed.
Great volume and closing.
I love the price action over the last two days but would really love to close above 12.65.
Thanks Jugs. It will be interesting to see how the Traders will try to take advantage of the filing. I have no doubt they will try and push it down, only to accumulate shares for the big upside.
Had hoped we would end green but I will take the weeks recovery
Sold the 1,000 for 12.65.
Yeah, all about the time people bought and got scammed
New trade. Buying another 1,000 shares $12.20. My last trade was 1,000 shares, bought at $12.05, sold at 12.60. This trade will be $12.20, sell at $12.65
I'll take it
Jugs,
Good luck today.
S