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I believe we are finally on the right path for success. The launches for the product are happening, the vetting process for Femprox is in full swing, the second facility for production will come on line,there is enough cash on hand till at least early 2015, the pipeline is alive and well and I am convinced imo that the product will be a huge success. It does not do any good for any investor to bash management during this period of execution in the company. I was in this investment when there was a lot of bashing on our former CEO and he left the company. The share price tanked and it took a while to recover. I do not agree with the compensation the management is receiving; however, they will not get it for a long time if the company fails. Their options are not worth much at this point in time, so they have a big incentive to create value for the company. All the presentations in the world about this product will not do a whole for the PPS. The product is known in the pharma community and interest will spike as soon as it proves itself in the market place. The same applies to analyst, there were probably other analyst on the call yesterday and most issues concerning the current execution of the business plan were addressed. The institutions will jump on board as well. It is going to take some patience and tolerance;however, I believe any one that is long on this company will be greatly rewarded.
I was finally cantacted about the proxy vote. I asked why were they contacting people to submit their votes. I was told they needed a quorum otherwise they would have to go to the expense of sending out the proxy again. I asked how many votes they needed for a quorum and I was informed it would have to be 80%. They are not soliciting to try to sway anybody to vote for or against,they just want 80% to vote to meet the quorum.
I would think it would take an entity to accumalate at least 10 million shares to initiate a buy-out or take over. On a daily accumulation of 250 thousand shares it would take 40 trading days. The shares would probably have to be purchased at the ask most of the time. This would drive the share price up to at least 4 if not higher. The news of a buy-out would raise the share price another 50 cents or higher. A bidding war would bump it up another 50 cents or higher. This is assuming there is no news of any launches,approvals,partnerships,etc. Imo I do not believe we have to worry of a buy-out in the 4 dollar range.
I hoping the approval for Italy will get us a pop in pps like Germany did. A sustained increase in pps would be nice for a change.
DG, The ceo of Apricus has options to purchase 900,000 shares at $2.51. In case of a buy-out, I am sure those options would fully vest for Mr. Pascoe. I think you had posted some time back that management and/or bod had no skin in the game for a sale of the company. I think that 900,000 shares fully vested at a price of $5.00 or higher would be incentive enough to pursue a sale of the company. I am glad they have these options available to them because without them I would agree there would be no incentive by management to entertain a sale of the company. I do not believe Mr. Pascoe would settle for any sale less than $10.00 a share imo. What is your take on the non-replacement of the in-house legal counsel at Apricus. I can appreciate the savings in salary; however, this is a critical time for negotiations on terms for partners,royalties,up-front payments and launches.
There is a lot of short covering going on with stock. I have had my shares on loan off and on for the last couple of years and today was the first time all my shares were returned. this may be the real deal this time and we may be in for a good run real soon! GLTA
The home page for Apricus indicates the offering should be priced b4 market opens tomorrow.
This is what I think is going on: Abbott is very interested in getting this product to market,but is doing it their way. There time line is not the same as Apricus, Abbott wants to launch this product at their pace and at their speed. Time is not of an essence to them. They own the product in Canada and they probably don't want some small company telling them when to launch their product. Apricus probably got the message and that is why 1H was left off the presentation. Abbott will launch Vitaros and it will be a big success sometime in 2013. There is no reason to panic or blame Apricus for something that is totally out of their control. The new ceo has a lot of experience in the apporoval process in bio-tech and product marketing. He also has an excellent track record on sale of companies. He is imo the right person at the right time for Apricus. As for the atm the way I read it, the filing is nothing more than an extension of the shelf offering that was going to expire. If you can tolerate the wait I think you will be richly rewarded. If you are a stickler for precise time frames and easily spooked you are probably better off in some other venture.
Why I am in this stock for the long haul. The ED market outside the US is at least 2 billion, if Apricus partners capture 20% of that market that is 400 mil in sales. The low double digit royalty is 10% which equals 40 mil for Apricus. 40 mil divided by @ 30 million shares outstanding equals $1.33 earnings per share. At 10 times earnings per share that makes the PPS at $13.30 per share. I believe this is a conservative estimate of what may happen. this does not take into account the monster potential of Femprox. GLTA
I have been a long term holder of this stock and have seen the pps reach the high 5's at least twice in the last 2-3 years. I beleive the company has been transparent as much as most stocks I've held. The Abbott launch is scheduled for 1st half of this year and I am sure it will happen sometime in 1st half of this year. The company has stated that and we are less than 2/3 of the way there. A lot of the posts seem to indicate that this guideline has been missed and the company is deceiving us. Year before last the company forecasted a partner for Canada by the end of 2011. They missed by less than a month. Most of forecasting this company does is controlled by some other entity and they can only predict what that entity lets them know. The market is what it is and we can only hope they get it right on the fundementals of this company. The cash raise,missed timelines,CEO departure,and lack of frequent pr's is just the way the business goes sometimes; however, this does not take away the reality of Vitaros,Femprox,15 mil cash reserve and huge pharma partners. I beleive for those of us that are in this stock for the long haul will be richly rewarded in due time. GLTA
I spoke with Ed Cox some time back and he indicated they are not opposed to selling the company if the price is right. I think they have painted themselves into a corner with all the partnerships. I think most big pharmas would be interested in owning all rights and not royalty proceeds. Femprox approval would be a game changer and I beleive there would be a lot of interest in owning this company. I just hope they don't do a lot of partnerships like Vitaros and make it difficult for a buyer. Having said that, I still feel very comfortable with Apricus going with partners with upfront payments and royalties. This stratagey if succesful would in itself imo raise the pps in the low to high teens. My reference to Mr. Martins experience with selling companies was if opportunity presented itself I feel he would be as good person to have on our behalf.
I am sorry for the multiple posts. I pressed the submit post and it looked like it did not post so I pressed again until it posted;however it posted many times.
Apricus is still going to benefit from the eventual approval of Vitaros in the USA because WC will buy the product from Apricus. There should be a very good profit margin with that product, coupled with the possible sale of the dispenser for the longer shelf life of the product. Not to mention the advertisement of the product flowing to the rest of the world. I feel the company made a wise decision on concentrating on Vitaros and Femprox for the present term. The old saying "jack of all trades and master of none" could apply at the present moment. I have a feeling the good doctor departed the company because he probably wanted to bring as much of the product pipline on line as possible. The amount of shares owned by the good doctor and the recently departed board member is nearly 2 million. I am sure they want the pps to rise to levels much higher than they are now as much as we do.
steve martin bio is very impressive. It seems like he would be the man best qualified to put Apricus up for sale.
It looks like we may have a little run-up in pps prior to the shareholder meeting followed by good run-up to the Canada femprox meeting and then a monster move after the Abbott launch! I do not have any facts to back this up it is just my opinion.
I have been in Apri since before the reverse split at around $1.72 pre-split. I averaged down after the pre-split and my break-even point is $5. We reached and exceded that price at least twice. I feel confident we will re-visit that price and beyond. I am a firm believer in the buy and hold approach with a stock that has the potentiel to do real well. I will hold my shares until we are at least at $10. It is hard not to pay attention to bashers and to pay too much attention to the pumpers;but for now I will stay the course.
MM, What are your thoughts on Warner chillcott marketing of vitaros in the US. Will they manufacture the product or will they buy it from Apricus. If they buy from Apricus the loss of marketing in the U.S. may not be a big deal.
Thanks, Dimitrios for your response. I have a feeling that Abbott is taking their time with the launch of vitarois in Canada because they want to get it right. If they can capture 30% of 4 billion market that is a big number for any big pharma. I know they only have the rights for Canada;however, I cannot help but believe they would want the biggest piece of the pie.
I have listened to cc and I have not heard the company's answer as to why cash flow positive was not achieved in 2011 and now it may not be till 2013.