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I think APRI will take a wait and see approach and not be proactive with Fispemifene.
It may be all for the best. Pfizer may have had a conflict of interest because they would have to downplay Viagra to promote Vitaros.
I agree with you on Pfizer on the marketing of Vitaros. I was just concerned that Pfizer would not want any competition other than what is out there now. I guess with Viagra going off patent,Pfizer would be the perfect partner for us.
What is your feeling on Pfizer and Vitaos. Do you think they may just want to sit on it and not compete with Viagra.
Good post DG, I am a little confused with Pfizer having a marketing option for Vitaros in the U.S. I thought Alergan was the company with the U.S. rights. Also, could you shed some light as to the problem with sales in Europe.
The success of Rayville trials should validate the skin permeation also. I think we will get a boost on the pps if trials are good.
I agree! I believe we will get a boost with positive Rayva trials this year.
That is less than 10% of the shares outstanding that means that 90% of us are still holding the bag.
I agree with your post DG. The potential for Vitaros is huge,the ED market world wide is @ 5 billion. If Vitaros could capture just 10% of the market that would equal 500 million,10% royalty would equal 50 million for Apricus. This would be 50 million divided by @ 61 million shares would be @ .81 per share in earnings. At a conservative p/e ratio that would equal @ $8 a share. That is not counting milestone payments or any revenue from Rayva. I think this is the minimum we could expect long term.
What I do not understand is that if everything hinges on the success of Fispemifene, then why all the bashing of Pascoe and his team. Fispemifene came into play under Pascoe's watch! I personally do not agree that everything is dependent on the success of Fispemifene. The revival of Rayva and the repurchase of Vitaros in the U.S. imo were very well executed under Pascoe's watch. It sounds like I am praising management, I am not, but I do want to give credit when it is due. I understand the failures the management team has had and the subsequent drop in pps, but I do not believe that Pascoe and his team are only interested in enriching themselves at the the expense of us shareholders. Sarissa and Aspire only interest imo is the same as ours and that is to make money and if they do, so will we! That may mean that someone like myself with an average price per share of $3.42 may not make a whole lot of money;however, I do like my chances a whole lot more now than when the company was under Dr. Damaj and we did not have a product approved or launched. I thought it was a good investment then and I think it is a better investment now!
I do not know why all the fuss about managements receiving restricted stock and options grants is all about. The restricted stock do not vest until 2-15-17 and the options have a four year vesting period. The options have an exercise price of $1.11, if this is such a steal at shareholders expense then we have a better offer now than management, we can buy all we want at $1.06. Sarissa has to pay $.88 for their warrants and what they have already purchased is higher than the recent $.78 low price. In this economic environment it is probably difficult to obtain financing even for companies with positive cash flow and I would imagine for a small bio-tech company would be very challenging. The fact the Sarissa and Aspire are investing for the long term is very encouraging. I am not pumping this stock, I own an amount than is of institutional size and my average price is $3.42 and I believe I will gain a profit on this investment.
Their purchase price is set at $0.88 a share the only way they would lose if the price went up considerably and then went back down below their purchase price I still believe that Sarrisa is not interested in a quick trade or just a double.
Between Sarrisa, Aspire and the Board of Directors they own a combined total of 33% of the outstanding shares. I'm afraid that our vote does not mean anything one way or the other. I still like my chances with this stock with Sarrisa in control. After all is said and done Sarrisa will wind up owning around 30% of the company. The agreement gives them the right to maintain that level or higher of ownership. I do not believe for one moment that Sarrisa in this stock for a quick trade or just a double on their investment.
You are absolutely right I think it's going to be alright and the stock will rebound nicely we could have bought this stock at 78 cents a share last month which is less than Sarrisa has to pay for its shares and warrants. If it is a steal for them at $.88 a share we could have a better buy.
Don't be surprised if the share price is around $2 after the results and a buyout offer is double that
Does any one know the history of Mr.Denner and Sarissa Capital on their goals of taking a position in a company. Is it to drive up the value for a profit or to dismantle and drive the price down for a private take over. I am not to familiar with how hedge funds conduct their investments. The business side of me tells me Mr. Denner saw an opportunity in Apricus because of the pipeline and the progress of their approved product and thought there is possibility of his fund to turn a profit on this investment. His average cost if he participates in the current offering is close to almost double of the current PPS, why would he be interested in driving the share price down for a take over and running a company instead of creating value in his fund for his investors. I do not know what Mr. Denner goal is for Apricus, but I hoping the business side of me is right.
In reading the 8k it appears that Apricus cannot do much of anything in regard to any equity purchase, sell, issuance or financing without Sarrisa's approval. The future of this company is in the hands of Sarrisa.
Is there still a problem with V sales in Germany
I don't think the company is already sold but just for fun if it is pending results what would you think the price would be
Hopefully the share price will be over $3 when an offer to buy the company comes in.
For those of you that believe that history repeats itself on October 20th 2014 Apricus closed at $1.64, on December 18th 2014 Apricus closed at $1 on October 9th 2015 Apricus closed at $1.65 on December 4th 2015 Apricus closed at a $1 on February 25th 2014 Apricus closed at 2:57 if history repeats itself we should be around $2.50 sometime in February of this year
I have been in this stock for a number of years and I can't recall share price ever going up after conference call.
It is red today but not dead
Sometimes dilution is a very good thing ,yesterday Weight Watchers stockholders got diluted by 10% and they are up 130%
In the presentation Mr Pascoe indicates they could also borrow money against the royalties from sales of Vitaros . They may be in a position where cash be available in the form of loans and pay back when the price of shares is higher. I'm willing to give them the benefit of the doubt and see what happens.
I wouldn't worry too much less than one percent of the total outstanding stock has traded so far today.
Dr Goldstein conducted a study on Femprox either last year or the year before never heard anything about results. It was a private study conducted in California. This was about the time that the Buzz about Femprox died down.
I agree with you totally and by the same token I did not average down to $3.49 to break even either.
The percentage of Sarrisa's ownership of Apri in their portfolio may be low,but the percentage of ownership of APRI is huge. They could own all of APRI and it would still be a low percentage of their portfolio. I do not think for a moment that they invested in Apri for a small move in their portfolio. I believe they are looking for at least a 3 to 10 bagger imo.
I agree with most everything you say, however, I do believe the revenue from Vitaros is significant. The company expects more than a hundred million in milestone payments, are you under the impression that the company will not get this money or that it will be to slow to make a difference. If Vitaros is successful and I believe it will be, the future income from it should make the stock worth at least a 2 to 3 million market cap.
We Are not countless, how do you propose they are going to pay for the trials for Rayva and Fispemifene if they are successful. There may be an opportunity to merge with another company or buy the rights for Vitaros in Canada or the U.S. Who knows maybe a forward stock split. I do not believe anyone who is long this stock would want the company to be in situation like they were before when they sold the rights to the U.S. for a pittance. We will see how Sarissa votes on the share raise. I have been in this stock for several years and not pleased with the current pps, but it is what it is, my average pps is $3.54 and I know it is a gamble and I have taken the risk. I believe the risk/reward in this stock favors the reward. GLTA
Teva made an offer to take over Mylan. Vitaros is in the hands of Mylan so I guess it'll take another year or so before Canada will have Vitaros on sale to the public.
Social if I understand you right the best we can hope for is 5 to 6 dollars per share, and a buyout is imminent.
Market analysis does not work on this stock it is driven by emotion and news
I would not put to much credence into Cantor Fitzgerald downgrade to Hold from buy. They had a buy with a $3.00 target and the stock has tanked, maybe the stock will take off now!
I have to agree with you on this one SB, I also think this is a game changer in regard to a large pharma buying this company. Prior to this the only market in the U.S. for Apricus was Femprox and Rayva, now there is a product that can capture a multi-billion dollar market in the U.S. The FDA approval process seems to be doable with this new product.
I am also a long term holder for over three years. I currently own more shares than when I originally started and my average price is @ $3.54. I do not agree that a substantial long term holders have sold or reduced their holdings. In the last three months the share price has dropped @ 36% and there has been @ 9 million shares traded, now keep in mind that for every seller there is a buyer. Lets assume that all these shares traded in the last 3 months were shareholders dumping their shares for the reasons you stated, that would amount to @ 23% of the 38 million outstanding shares. I would not call that most of long term holders selling or reducing their shares. The 73% are probably making a wise decision that Vitaros will sell and the company will be rewarded with milestone payments and royalties. This company imo is not counting on Femprox for its total success and I can understand why someone who invested in this company for the potential of Femprox would be disappointed; however, three years ago the push was for Vitaros to be approved and stay afloat financially. This has been accomplished and the pipeline products are still in the works. I do not believe for a minute that Femprox is dead, postponed because of favorable terms or risk, but not dead. Rayva is a pleasant surprise and imo I feel we will have other surprises because of the technology this company owns. I am not pumping this stock, I am as disappointed as many of you are with the current pps; however, I am not a believer that most are headed for exists.
This is the way I see it for the current pps at these levels: Canada has not launched, no partner for femprox, dilution, no word about the possibility of joint venture or take over of rights to vitaros in the U.S; and no sales numbers for the current launch of vitaros in the UK. In addition to this, you have shareholders selling on fear,rumors,frustration and loss of patience. The delayed launch in Canada rest with Abbott, there is nothing that Apricus can do to make that happen! Abbott bought the rights and they are in total control, sure Apricus could have had a performance clause but it is what it is. The delayed partner for femprox could be the partner wanted the U.S. rights along with the EU and Apricus did not want to give that up. You can not blame management for not giving in if this was the case. The market for a FSD like femprox is huge in the U.S. and the potential partner may not want to pay for any trails that would count for the U.S. trials. Once the the rights are sold the company loses total control and are totally dependent on the partners for execution. Dilution is the cost of doing business in small bio-tech world. In hindsight the timing could be better,but it what it is. The sales numbers for vitaros will be available in the near future and hopefully they will be good. I am as unhappy as many of you are with the current pps, but I can not totally blame management for collapse in share price. The ship is headed in the right direction and it is not off course, it may be taken a longer route but I believe our ship will come in.
It may be that because of the added shares through secondary and the atm the good doctor Damaj may be under the amount needed to be considered a major holder. I am not sure but I think a 5% ownership is considered a major holder
There were 319 shares traded at the last minute, of those 279 were traded at $2.28 and 40 were traded at $2.26 at the last 2/10 of 1 second of trading. I do not know if this is manipulation or not but It seems someone did not want this stock to close green today.