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Also the fact that the company will be cash flow positive next year is huge.
You've been right on some things but I hope you're totally wrong on this one
I agree, but my rationale was with Vitaros working and selling at a very conservative 5% of market share. The partners are not small companies and what you saying is true of every company in existence. I also included in my rational the disapproval of Vitaros in the U.S. This is not a slam dunk by any means,but I do not believe is hanging by a thread also.
The market is treating this company like it failed in the only product it had to market. As soon as the market realizes the potential of Vitaros and Rayva things will change for the better. In the meantime shorts and day traders will have a heyday.
In order for the company to go belly up,Vitaros would have to not work at all. We know that is not the case. Ex-U.S the market for ED is at least 3 billion, a 5% market share would equal to at least 18 million for Apricus. I don't see how that would remotely look like a company in distress.
They did what they had to do keep the company from getting delisted and have enough cash to get the approval in the United States. This plan is the best option,otherwise the climb back up would have been greater. They along with us have a better chance of making money.
Agreed!
Priceline.com did a reverse split in 2003, 1 for 6 and the share price went to a @ 22 after the split. The share price today is over $1,479 not all reverse splits are the end of the world. It is only when companies are in trouble that a reverse split could be detrimental. I do not believe that Apricus is in that situation.
Fispemifene, imo was not a very good deal for Apricus because if it had good results they would not have the funds to market the product themselves. They would have to partner with someone and pay a royalty out of their royalty from the marketing company. Vitaros if approved in the U.S is a much better deal, they do not have to pay royalty out of their royalty unless Alergan opts out and they have to partner to market the product themselves. I wish they would not have taken their focus off Vitaros and not gotten involved with Fispemifene, I think we would not be in the mess we are in with the pps.
There are a lot of us in the same boat Old Coach. Without a reverse split the market cap would have to be 240 million in order for you to break even. With a reverse split the market cap has to be 240 million in order for you to break even. If it is possible without a reverse split then it certainly is possible with a reverse split. I am not trying to downplay what has happened ,fundamentally the company is the same nothing has changed. If the approval in the US happens and the company does not dilute to raise any more cash then everything should be just fine.
Eicoman, I do not have a link for the Nasdaq rule, this was told to me by Matt Beck at IR. I do remember sometime back where Apricus was given notice for not meeting the required minimum cap of $35 million and had 6 months to correct the deficiency or be delisted. This happened after the notice of failure of meeting the minimum of $1 share price. I am guessing the company decided it would be best to do the reverse split now and not have the RS when the PPS might be moving upward and dampened the push for a higher PPS.
The reverse split happened because Apricus share price fell below a $1 and failed to come back to a $1 for ten trading days. In addition to this the market cap has to be at a minimum of $35 million. If a company is deficient on two requirements at the same time it can not be granted an additional 6 months to comply. It is what it is and should not put the total blame on the company. It is not the end of the world and Apricus recovered nicely years ago with a 15 for 1 reverse split.
A little over a year ago the news of Rayva clinical trials and a possible orphan drug status sent the price per share upwards of $2.75. Do not discount the impact that Rayva news could have on the price per share.
This is great news, we now have at least 4 entities with a 5% or greater ownership in the company. I do not believe for a moment that they are in for a quick trade. Hedge fund managers usually have a following and it is good to have one outside the U.S.
I feel your pain. I have been here since before the reverse split of 1 for 15 and my average price is around $3.42.
Our first hurdle is to have at least a 35 million dollar market cap. After that with the NDA submission I feel very confident that the price per share will go over a dollar and remain there for at least 10 days before the extension of the other six months is up.
I am not exaggerating a 10% market share of a 5 billion dollar market is 500 million. A 15% royalty is 75 million divide that buy 125 million shares and give that and 8 to 1 price-to-earnings ratio and you're almost at $5. I think
that is a very conservative estimate given we may not even have a hundred twenty-five million shares outstanding and that does not include any Milestone payments.
NDA approval and a launch from a big pharma in the U.S. will cure all the cash problems and a low pps of this company. I firmly believe in less than a year we will be at $5 pps or more. It has already been predicted a pps of > $3 with a 20% market share of Vitaros in ex-U.S. sales. I also do not believe there will be a reverse split of the stock.
I wonder who bought the other 10% or so of the 15-16% that was sold to the investors. It looks like Institutional and insiders own over 50% of the stock now. These holders are long term holders and should help keep the stock from dropping when good news hit. The insider buys are probably the granting of stock instead of pay.
It all sounds good, less dilution and warrants that are not registered which may not be issued. It is still less dilution even if the warrants are issued. I hope the lower proceeds from the sale is enough to carry the company though the nda submission and approval.
The way I understood it is that Apricus has to meet a certain criteria in order for Aspire to participate in the purchase. He did not say what their criteria was.
I spoke to Matt Beck of investor relations and he told me that aspire did not participate because apricus did meet certain criteria in order for them to purchase the stock. There were investors interested and the cash raise would carry them to the approval or rejection of the nda next year. It seems like this was a good business decision.
I would think that Pasco would have gotten with Denner before he made that offer to the investors. I can never find where Aspire is listed as an Institutional Investor. It makes me wonder if Aspire shorted and then sold to cover. This may be the reason that Pasco chose not to go to Aspire at this time. Denner still holds a large number of shares and still has the option to get a seat on the board of directors. It also looks good to have more than one large Institutional Investor in this company. With the options they both have, they almost own half of the company.
What will happen before 11/07/2016: Rayva will get partnered in EU,phaseII study in U.S. will be successful, NDA submission will have taken place, additional launches will occur, RTD will be within sight of completion, Germany's product problem will be resolved,sales of Vitaros will continue to improve quarter over quarter, loss per share will be minimal, and the share price will be quite a bit over a dollar. This is far more realistic than your prediction imo.
D G , what is the name of the company that is in charge of manufacturing of Vitaros in Canada?
Can you please explain how bankruptcy is even in the picture. This company has revenue coming in and very little debt, in bankruptcy Denner would lose more on his investment than what the debt is.
They have executed on all those products you mentioned. Vitaros is approved in Canada and in Europe, RayVa 2b trial completed, rtd in progress, Fispemifene- trial failure, and Femprox-no partner willing to take to trail so far. I am not at all happy with the way things have gone with the time frames,failures, and the pps; however, management has no control over success of trials,partner participation,or how the market values the company.
The company has over six million dollars in cash on hand and they expect the current flow of cash to fund the operations of the company. I don't they want to raise any funds with the current pps. That may be the reason the trial for Rayva is being partnerd. There could be some things that could come up that would change the current strategy. I do not believe the company is on the brink of going out of business.
Awarded as an incentive with approval of Vitaros in U.S. and continued employment.
I don't understand, please explain.
The RayVa study is supposed to start in the fall because that is the time when the most people are troubled with this disease. It is supposed to be at home study. The room temperature device is taking a long time because it has to prove effective after it has been on the shelf for the required time. I agree with you on the adventure on the Fispemifene product. The market is huge;however,Apricus only owned the marketing rights in the U.S.and would have to pay Forendo a royalty on sales. I think Apricus would have partnered to market Fis in the U.S., further reducing the pie. I still think Vitaros is the gem in this basket, a 5+ billion market in the world. A 2+ billion market in the U.S. with only 25% of men diagnosed with E D currently being treated, leaving 75% of those diagnosed with no alternative. A 10% market share with Vitaros users would equate to 500+million, a 10% rolyalty would provide 50+million in revenue. This would be over $.80 eps, at a modest 15/1 would equal $12 a share. This is a very conservative estimate not counting milestone payments of nearly 200 million. Lets say the worst thing happens and it does not get approved in the U.S., then cut everything in half and the share price is @ $6 a share. All of this can happen with the revenue from Vitaros sales and very little cash raise if necessary.
You better let Mr. Denner know of Sarrisa Capital of this revelation. He owns almost a third of this company.
I agree with you completely. I still think the pps will spike a little with the rtd approval and a couple of launches. I wish Denner would take a seat on the board and make the company meaner and leaner.
I would think that a couple of good quarterly reports, a launch or two and an NDA submission of Vitaros would just about do it.
The at home trials for Rayville in the fall should not cost very much, I wonder why they are not going to do it.
I hope Ferring can hit the deck running and not need some kind of approval to market Vitaros. I don't think Takeda was very aggressive in marketing Vitaros in the U.K.
Calm down,Ferrring took over U.K. and Apricus received upfront payment of 250K.
Lets hope you are right, any buy-out of
Apricus at these prices would be a disaster.
It may be for best for us,sometimes with M&A their focus is in getting the deal done and not on any of the impending business in hand.
It is possible with the new title of SVP chief business officer, Mr. Morton could be replacing Mr.Dorsey.