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I believe that the rig elevation is to permit the use of BoPs with that type of rig, rather than just to keep it off the ground in rainy season.
I agree that production growth has been tremendous, but I haven't seen much (if any) production from the existing assets that they planned to drill on / workover back then.
Most of production growth came from Madeley F deal which looked a bit like taking candy from a baby (IMO too good to be true - so I always worry what we are missing there).
It will be interesting to see official production numbers, share details and asset deals in the 3Q report in October/November.
What your predictions for the end of July?
Because tomorrow is...the end of July!
Light Sweet Crude is $90 / bbl on NYMEX.
See http://www.wtrg.com/daily/crudeoilprice.html
Schlumberger has no current presence in Belize.
But it's regional offices are next door in Mexico.
How do you know?
Can't be determined from what Treaty have done so far.
That PR says nothing about confirming the oil find. But..
..the fact that Treaty have now engaged Schlumberger and Tucker (announced by Treaty in a PR after my post) gives me greater confidence that oil has been found, and that Treaty are taking the necessary steps to determine how much they have before formulating a development plan for the field. IMO.
I base my opinions on facts, but as I advised before I don't live near the wellsite so I can't add any photos or facts from there at the moment.
In my view no commercial oil proven in Belize yet.
My view is based on published information.
If Treaty ran openhole logs what was the result?
I hear rumour that Treaty may be relying on cased hole logging to see what they have got due to concerns about hole condition.
So running casing may not have been as positive a sign as I was thinking.
If anyone has technical facts about what is going on in Belize, please post them.
I live 137 miles from the Treaty wellsite and I only go there when I go diving in Placencia.
I have no next trip planned yet.
Both Treaty and Government of Belize will want to announce a successful oil discovery as soon as possible. IMO.
Treaty for corporate reasons, as in the past, and GoB because falling oil production at Spanish Lookout is putting a big hole in their Budget.
I understand (from Board) that wireline logging was finished last week.
Lack of news makes me suspect they did not find oil in commercial quantities. IMO.
This week should tell with a press release from one or both.
10-Q Makes Interesting Reading.
Further 10% of Treaty Energy Belize disposed of since 10-K, this leaves Treaty with 13% working interest in the first two Belize wells.
More realistic production targets for Woolridge leases are mentioned. 200 bpd from all 12 wells by July 2012.
Treaty Energy San Juan #2 Drill Site Location.
Tried to give you Google Earth link for Treaty San Juan #2 Drill Site location but couldn't attach kmz file to IH post.
The coordinates I have for the Treaty San Juan #2 drill site in Belize are:
16°31'55.60"N
88°30'16.88"W
Hope you can put these into Google Earth yourself.
"are drilling" refers to San Juan #2 well which was spudded in January 2012 and based on TRRC definitions would have been classed as drilling ever since then.
No word from Treaty on whether drilling has restarted, and I am 137 miles away and cannot see for myself.
Treaty have not acquired any seismic in Belize.
No seismic has been acquired by Treaty over the area in which Treaty are now drilling near Indepedence in Belize.
Esso shot a very wide spacing seismic survey including the area that Treaty are drilling pre-1982 and reliquished their concession after drilling a well much further south near Monkey River, but - as far as I can tell - Treaty's wells do not lie on the nearest Esso line to their location.
In the last quarter of last year total production was 744 bbls in 92 days.
There is no way that "there was a day or two where they did reach 55 bopd" as you report was stated by Mike Mulshine of Treaty IR as this would have made the quarterly total much higher than this. IMO.
It's time to challenge Treaty IR on this mis-information. I suggest you call Mike again and ask them to pass you daily production data. Their management will get this ever day - if they are a real oil company.
10-Q may hold further surprises about Treaty’s assets in Belize. IMO.
Since getting access to the Belize concession on April 20, 2010, when Treaty entered into a 50/50 Joint Venture agreement with Princess Petroleum Limited, Treaty have almost continually diluted their interest in this concession and wells. IMO this is not the normal behaviour of a company that is confident of a good exploration outcome.
The recent 10-k showed that:
On July 15, 2010, Treaty sold a 10% interest (5% total) working interest in their Belize concession to an undisclosed investor.
On September 2, 2011, Treaty sold a 25% working interest (50% of Treaty’s working interest) in Belize well numbers 1 and 2.
On September 12, 2011, Treaty sold 4% of their interest in Treaty Energy Belize Ltd (2% working interest in their Belize concession) to All Energy Corp.
The cumulative impact of all these dilutions is that Treaty has 18% working interest in these wells left.
Could the delay in the 10-Q be caused by further dilution?
If any of you care to call Treaty IR to confirm Treaty’s current shareholding in these wells, I would be interested if you post their response.
In the 10-K, if oil is confirmed production potential of the first well is said to be 50 bpd. Based on Treaty’s previous forecasting accuracy IMO this is likely to be high. However if we accept this number, Treaty’s share would be 9bpd.
With this type of production level, I guess you’ll have to put those Pina Coladas on hold for a while.
Weather is fine in Belize today.
No rain in Belize City or even at Treaty wellsite in the south.
No I didn't allow for Treaty's reduced holding in the first two Belize wells and you're right to raise it.
As I posted previously Treaty only gets 18% of the revenue from the first two wells but bears 86% of the investment cost.
So IMO there is no chance of PPS exceeding 10 cents in the very unlikely event that the first two wells in Belize yield 1000 bpd.
Same as my calcs but....
You should use estimated earnings not just revenue.
Don't have to predict the past. The facts speak for themselves. Treaty have reported them to the SEC up to December 31st 2011. Fact.
No-one can predict the future. IMO.
All I was trying to do was counter the ludicrous suggestion that with 1/3 of whatever level of production share price would be in the 50 - 75 cent range, as it won't unless share buyers lose their love of the 20:1 P:E ratio (that I assumed). IMO.
First tell me how you predict 75 cent PPS with whatever level of production you were talking about.
There is no proof that there is a commercial oil discovery in Belize - yet.
And you are a little fast in calling me wrong as well.
Wrong actually.
Based on Belize alone, by my calculations, 1000 bpd production would be required to take Treaty PPS for this 750,000,000 share company to 35 to 50 cents (this range based on significant uncertainty in oil price, capital and operating costs with the lower end based on BNEs cost base and the higher end based on very low costs). IMO
Interested in why your calculations give very different results to this.
Regarding Belize, please note that Treaty is doing wildcat exploration in this country and do not know whether they will find oil in each well or not (in my view Treaty have no proof of an oil discovery or oil reserves yet).
The statistical average success rate quoted for wildcatting in the USA is 1 success in 10 wells. In Belize, the historical success rate is much worse than this (1 commercial field discovered in something like 40 wells). Fact.
I know nothing about Texas so I can't estimate or comment for there.
Actual oil production reported to the SEC in the 10-Q is 755.4 barrels (8 bpd) for 3 months ending 30th September 2011 and 1,445.8 barrels (5 bpd) for the 9 months ending 30th September 2011. Fact.
What you quote are management statements and discussions flagged as forward looking and not certain to be delivered. I suspect those riders will give some protection to the management making the statements. IMO
Heavy rains today - flooding in Belize.
Large section of Southern Highway near Placencia Junction washed away and likely to take a long time to repair.
Temporary wooden Kendall bridge on Southern Highway between Placencia junction and Hopkins junction underwater.
Treaty wellsite condition not known. Treaty supply route from Independence / Big Creek still open.
10k Surprise Treaty Little Ownership of Belize Wells.
Prior to 10k, my understanding was that Treaty had a working interest of 43% in Princess Concession (with 5% held by an unnamed investor and 2% by All Energy Corp).
Now 10k reveals (page 29) that Treaty sold a further 25% working jnterest in the first two wells to an investor for cash.
This leaves Treaty with just 18% working interest in these wells despite Treaty paying 86-100% of the cost of drilling them under the terms of their option agreement with Princess Petroleum.
10k seems to show that having run out of shares to pay for things with, Treaty have been selling assets to fund their operation.
Belize Prime Ministers quarterly update today.
He reports that oil revenues for Government of Belize are down due to lower volume BNE production decline and lower world oil price.
Good time for Treaty to find oil in Belize (or to confirm the find they announced prematurely earlier). IMO
Please..Please..Stop..Confusing things.
That sign is the old incorrect Treaty Well 1 sign that was replaced a long time ago by a correct Princess/Treaty Wells 1 and 2 sign.
The guy is using it as a piece of scrap wood.
What is happening today? In the absence of real information, people on this board are getting obsessed with the minutia like hard hats.
Advice for Loading Photo onto IH.
Save the photo as a file on your computer desktop.
Go to Settings/My Account/My Pictures
click on "Browse" and go the the picture you saved. Click on "Upload".
After it uploads you will see a thumbnail image with 2 links at the right side of your thumbnail image.
Copy the entire link called "Embed" and paste that link into your post.
Click on Preview and you should see the image.
Nearby water source wells should be considered in all EIAs.
IMO.
From a quick literature search of oil contamination in aquifers it seems that what matters in aquifers is which direction the water flows.
Although I am no geologist, I suspect that the fresh water for these wells comes from rainfall in the Maya Mountains to the west, rather than from the sea to the east.
Treaty's San Juan #2 well is right in the path of this water flow.
So in the absence of any baseline water quality and contamination mitigation measures in the drilling and casing, I am afraid it would be Treaty Shareholders who get wiped out in the event of any contamination.
I don't believe Treaty have found any oil in Belize so far, but they have plenty more opportunities in this well and elsewhere in their Belize acreage holding to find oil as long as they explore diligently. Opinion.
How do I know they haven't found oil? Well no self-respecting oil company would leave a well open without casing and surface pressure containment (and sometimes unattended) for 4.5 months if that well was open to an oil reservoir at the bottom. And if they did do just that, then they wouldn't have got away with it, they would have had a blow-out. Opinion.
Your post contains disturbing information about Treaty encountering water in the San Juan #2 well. Treaty are drilling approximately 3 miles from the water supply wells for Placencia and a lot of South Belize. Fact.
The Princess / Treaty EIA for the first two exploration wells completelly missed this. Fact.
If the EIA had been done properly, it would have included baseline sampling of water quality at the water wells and mitigating measures in the drilling program and casing plan to protect the water supply aquifer from contamination. Without these Treaty is wide open to claims of contamination of water supply from now until the end of time. Opinion.
I have made a factual (and positive) post this morning about my visit to the site yestersday.
If you have questions about the ownership and intended use of the equipment shown in my photos at Princess/Treaty San Juan wellsite yesterday, send my photos to Treaty IR and I am sure they will enlighten you.
Positive Photos from Treaty Belize Wellsite June 9th 2012.
Visited Treaty Belize wellsite yesterday and took these two photos which show a lot of additional equipment on site and final preparations being made to restart drilling.
The impression given by the security guard who now has a nice wooden hut instead of a tent was that there was something to hide, as he told me I wasn't allowed to take photos of the site and went inside to get his Machete when I took these.
I can't see anything on the site that Treaty wouldn't want to share. It all looks in line with what Treaty USA have been saying was going on.
The young Belizean college student who I took with me badly wanted to see a wellsite in Belize and can't understand why the oil companies here, BNE and Treaty don't have invite school and college kids to see their activity - as after tourism oil is the largest foreign exchange earner for the Belize economy.
Drilling has not restarted in Belize.
Went to site today. There is more equipment parked there than before, but rig is not erected yet.
I will post photos tomorrow.
Guardian newspaper in Belize today reports that Perenco, well near Orange Walk town - for which I posted rig photos previously - has now spudded and is drilling ahead.
Equipment was mobilised to site mid-April. Well pad size is 2-3 acres. Target depth is 7500 feet.
This is the other side of the Maya mountains to Princess/Treaty well and - in my view - of little geological significance.
May go diving and be able to see the wellsite.
Doctor has just cleared me to start diving again after foot injury in May.
Diving now depends on if Whalesharks are seen in dives from Placencia on June 7th.
Three things are needed to make an oilfield.
Based on the presentation I give to college kids in Belize, these are:
(1) Oil source (the information I have on past wells in Belize show this is present over a lot of the country) [The seeps at Treaty wellsite are a good sign - oil is being generated - but needs to be trapped to make an oilfield]
(2) Trap and structure (impermeable cap rock and large enough structure underground - this is normally detected by Seismic - a lot of historic exploration wells in Belize had dead oil shows showing that the trap and structure were not present - these wells were abandonned) [IMO Without doing seismic and with no offset wells in the vicinity - Treaty have no clue whether a trap is present and what the size of the structure could be]
(3) Good rock quality (to hold the oil then let it flow out when you want to produce it - this is normally detected by drilling - I have heard that this was also a problem with a lot of the past wells in Belize as even those with live oil shows wouldn't flow and were abandonned) [Treaty well results should show this - they haven't yet - but when they expose the potential oil reservoir and log it they should be able to tell one way or the other]
Drilling exloration wells in a new oil area all the above must be considered risks and studies and technolgy must be used to try to minimise the risk before drilling.
In an established oil area like Texas on the other hand these risks shouldn't exist as there are plenty of offset wells - but there are other risks like oil depletion to contend with.
Your post quotes straight from Wikipedia about Seimic.
Treaty have not done any seismic in Belize. Seismic would have required an Environmental Impact Assessment and that has not ever been submitted to my knowledge.
As far as I am aware, Belize well locations were first selected from hot spots on the RSS Aeromag report on Treaty Website but the locations subsequently chose by Treaty to drill the first two permitted wells were not in any of the top 5 locations from the RSS work.
I scouted the top 5 locations form the RSS survey when Treaty first said the were drilling but found nothing - and some of the locations RSS shown were inacessible. When I discussed this with Treaty (Andrew Reid) the reasons he gave for moving the wells, geological optimisation and access considerations, sounded plausible to me.
Good. I'm glad there is soon to be progress in Belize.
I'm most likely gonna pass by the wellsite on Saturday June 9th - on my way to or from Scuba Diving out of Placencia.
I'll let you know what I see on my return to Belize City.
Not planning to visit Belize well site anytime again soon (as diving in south was mainly driven by Whaleshark season which is now over).