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Thanks for sharing
Reality is I would take a pessimistic view of insider transactions at a quick glance.
I think black rock involvement was pure shadow for somebody.
I also think renaissance might have recognized such...
All said and done: pps was 2.50 on 3/31 vs 12/31 (record date of article)and renaissance had NEW 177k vs decrease in 100k black rock ....and now price is approaching $5.
Stand alone. I wouldn’t touch... so...to be clear I’m going against one of my own measures.
Good for you for speaking up....
Here is a true story:
I said almost exactly what you just said to somebody else about 8 years ago....
Not sure how long it was, thankfully it wasn’t too long, but I realized he/she was the one much happier than I.
Differences are not defined as anger and conflict.
to “occasionally” use stronger verbiage to demonstrate that I feel with certainty something must be heard...should be met with a thoughtful response...
Ps. The person to whom I said such was exponentially smarter than I, and was significantly more ruthless than anything I have ever said. (I’m not talking four letter words)
Ok. So.....why didn’t you or anybody bet on the profound hindsight? Maybe you did? I don’t recall your position at that time..??..it appears to me that many of your conclusions could have been used as decision making tools prior to news.
If you were specific about which part not clear; I could attempt to communicate better.
Having said that; I was referencing public offerings. (The arbitration is still applicable and includes a subsequent capital raise.
The reality is: we don’t know who got sell vs buy right and or what their profits were....maybe the smarter group got it wrong? Nobody gets it right every time.
Yet still there are ways for you to increase your chances of locating the “in The know” trades.
Put shares for sale and find demand.
Ie: here is a approach:
Put for sale shares at above market price ( even more inviting to do so with warrants holders at a built in arbitrage price)
And OR
Sell shares well below market price (in a plain version this is probably hard for small money people to understand), were asking $100sk in shares to $millions in shares.
My attempt to explain this to a smaller $ investor:
Scenario: price is $2share and you worried about offering. Place 10k for stop limit 1.50 for sale at $1.55.
Bad scenario happens and prices hits 1.50.
(And then the findings, results and actions expand exponentially again.)...so I’ll just add potential thought and action....
If pps continues drop and my sell not executed i would leave order and sell even more below at market and then wait. If my additional sale results in a increase of price and takes my 1.55 I would have faith that the move is fake and adjust my mentality.
On other hand if price Coninues drop; another trade can be placed. A limit sell above market followed by another market sell. (It’s saying here is this at 1.55 and the other half at 1.05 for avg sell pps of1.27. (Side note; not to confuse; but dollar amount vs share count at specified prices to reveal avg can and are the difference - arbitrage)
This setting was displayed as day trade, which I rarely do as an overall % of my work.
Look at the rush to .80; you look smart as “f” for selling before, BUT for how long though?
It’s impossible for me to imagine a situation where the “somebody else knows” rules the price...
How buffet said “moot”?
As in moot?
Well taken
Would a reference to warren buffet help?
I’m smart enough to know; I don’t ever want to be smartest man in room.
And I like being lucky and being the most ignorant.
Say my way ; or say warren eloquent way??
Like you; I like to hear what all have to say...I read everybody...
So here’s opportunity... what was attacking? Why?
Be specific as possible...
I will likely retort it was purposeful to create emphasis. None the less it may I may learn I am not achieving “emphasis”
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What you want me to say??
If warrants don’t get exercised that inherently means all the geert road shoes aren’t producing open market purchase; which inherently means people that make more than i do in a year in a week don’t find interst. (Sorry, but I assume people who make more in a week than I do a year are quite substantially smarter (educated in their place of work) than I.
So...sorry for being humble or acting like it?
Yes, I have executed well here...might end up being hindsight compared to future?
Before arguing semantics; it is not my intention to say the market is virgin innocent grounds.
I disagree with you, strongly.
Ie: you have Financed cvm for 10 years via so called public offerings.
One would suspect you would probably have the best understanding of their business.
If you forecast they will need more capital via another round or warrants exercise; it would smart biz practice to sell shares at a “warrant arbitrage trade price of in the money...” and another order well below market price.
Results will be:
If demand is high people buy and your warrant arbitrage trade puts you in the money. Great
If there is no demand and a public offering comes to fruition than sell order well below market willl be executed. Great. You retain ownership even gain ownership at massive discount to retail.
That’s business! Clear business!
What is different when spider and pijoe and pumice and others discussing offering 6-12 months in advance?
What was different then vs now?
What was the same?
Spider said himself he anticipates or considers possibility of offering and his reaction of such...
Then trade it as such. Your all thinking about it like the funders; you’re just not trading it like them.
Everybody knew prior funding would occur. So the person who used his/her position as a shareholder and warrant holder becomes a conspiracy of insider trading? Really?
Go ahead and sell out like the funders have in past....based on demand...the way in which they identified demand and how they posiion themselves was simply different.
——
Public offering is talked about right and left here for years and years...
Any then say “ bs, insiders knew”. Give me a f’n break
Spider man, maybe I just like to disagree??
But your reply is equivalent to me arguing about my little girls hairdos and saying I tried and that’s the important part. You reworded it...to do nothing more than demonstrate you could do the same??
Agreed. And this will be wiped out or force to reckon with in the future.
That’s what I thought too at that moment in time (that I was late)....but was not after all. Previous post contains my action taken
Do your work....it’s not anything you said more than typical political battles we see on a daily basis....
You decide what to hear. They decide what to hear.
It’s noise!
BUT, it is
Imperative you know who the participants are!
I was busy and wasn’t quick enough....sold at 6.40
Bought back AH...this time i reinvested the difference though.
No such thing & you know it.
Wrong all wrong. Completely wrong. The insinuation of insider information is pathetic and demonstrates complete lack of understanding market mechanics in conjunction with people who are professionals.
“-yes I’ve tried”
That’s what sets you apart from others...
Sometimes i speak with a kid (young adult) and they’ll ask basic questions....
I try to invite them to participate with caution (in the market), do NOT attempt to do what I do....I purposefully throw things there way to scare them off by usage of vocabulary...and then I’ll close with a statement like yours.... to show that it can be so complicAted and rudimentary at the same time....
The difference is some put in all the work and some put in the work they want to see....
And just like life; if you only do what you want rather than what you are capable....well results speak for themselves...
You must be a fulfilled person!
“Yes I’ve tried” eveything!
Ahoy mate! Wish I had put the time you had into your Spears sheets and timeline...I might have more OR less confidence... I never got around to it....
Good comment...now how does that fit with everything else?
Some might say dis is a precursor of currency rates.?.?.??
Agreed. Pumice, I think was saying just that...he just didn’t clarify enough for you to interpret that? IMO
I value your perception of such comment.
The min 10% will hit in advance of final readout which will most likely be greater with more time...
I think many fail to truely see this aspect of study....it essentially ends early!
——
I stil don’t like the fact geert said it...maybe it’s my history...maybe it’s bs showmanship...???
Pumice already gave you some possible outlets....on how, why data may be shared.
I can only add food for thought. I know I can NOT participate becuase my personal restrictions in a run to 99++.
I too can throw ice cold water on parts of my post.
A thesis could be built that says that was all done and there aren’t 2m more to go; but it’s actually positive vs (my insinuation) that bad news ahead.
FYI: I don’t claim to be scientist, smartest guy in the room or anything remotely close tob such ideology.
I’ll try and paint a picture the way I know how:
I love being outside and building....
I love trains.
When I build a thesis for investment I build it the best I can.
Imagine a simple pyramid...and if any block from the bottom tips than the rest will fall.
Now imagine and trestle for a train. There are some braces that could fail and cause total failure to entire structure, but others would have no major effect to stability of structure. The core would still hold enough until a transfer of weight and other architectural dynamics can be replaced or modified....??
——
What’s the logic (running logic can be very very dangerous with cvm and geert) behind a round of financing right now? Is it they couldn’t convince anybody to purchase shares on open market thus no pps increase, thus no warrants exercise, thus no cash for cvm?
At this stage I’d want some rights if I was big money....or does cvm go back to the pool of sharks where they were born? You think the founding financier is going to let his rights evaporate with a newbie?
The correct trade is arbitrage; data value ownership ... (I’m definitely not smart or connected enough to know this) in conjunction with cash injection via warrants.
My first rule to my assumption is I’m not the smartest.
If cvm can’t get open market puchases from funds; then all these conferences, letters, are nothing but bs showmanship.
If the correct trade stated above has manifested itself? There is a chance....
You see? The only positive & commonality in this post and prior post is that financing now means failure.
I’d like to think I will recognize whether more warrants are being exercised vs all done before everybody else.
I think 2m more to go (literally pre purchased).
Hence I think a $1b Mc arrives prior to news.
See? Commonality #2? Warrant exercise is debatable on positive and negative....but I already gave parameter for worst case scenario in previous post (just tack on arbtiage cash to equation)
Here is broken “bent” scenario from train analogy.
Capitals raise via offering = “bent” gone ....so you see the reason I replied to Spider-Man?
If your playing this anticating a capital raise and then going LONG cvm...you’re an absolute idiot!
All other ways of interpretation are more than open though. Lol!
See? Clearly I can’t particapte to the poatential max...almost all his positives were negative for me.
——
I think money to be made.
I think warrants to be exercised
I think 2m more warrants being exercised.
I think pass $1b valuation
I know I could be wrong
I know I read tape well but not perfect
I think I see before all
And sometimes....
Really? Your 1st paragraph, really?
Then skip to your 3rd paragraph, really?
I think you answered your own question.
You do what you want with it. I clearly stated I do NOT know if it was the final settlement of warrants to be exercised or there are 2m warrants to go. (My opinion is there are 2m to go)
Look at it as a tool if you trust my observation; with the caveat being I’m unsure if 2m to go or it’s done and done....otherwise it’s useless....and you make comments like paragraph 1.
I’m ok with that. K
Huh? All of that was interesting...
Your outlook.
Reference to fosco...
Burn rate
Expectation of raise becuase only $5m cash...
The idea anybody would they would even consider letting the level of cash approach that level while exercising warrants?
......
I’m trading this with all my tools even though some are self deemed useless here. I have this a specific goal in mind. 1000% return on capital over 2 years (not YOY). I have many complicated reasons for this (I’m complicated to some I guess)
I find your comments extremely interesting becuase the worries you mention are the least of mine. And your positives are my worries.
Does anybody remember the price and date i said I saw Massive sell signal? I was clear about it....(I have since bought and sold a couple of times. Today I took back my full share position and retained cash discount from selling higher.) so...that price & and yesterday super drop price bottom have anything in common? (You see it is important to not forget....at the same time that it is imperative to adapt ones thesis; a retention of prior dynamics shouldn’t be alienated. My tape says that either we have roughly 2m shares to go at an extraction rate of sell pps vs .01 purchase price OR the last of it was just extinguished.
Extinguished is not good and demands financing ASAP.
An additional 2m shares is positive.
One can take my tape interpretation:
As a given and do what I say
Can take as dependable source and then apply that to their personal insight...
Or decide it’s useleas...
I mentioned to lightrock a few posts back not to forget what had led us to $99 price target...
The SS is so built in to levy participation.
Laymen’s terms:
2m more shares to go signifies continuous warrants capital.
Just extinguished means bad....it means the study failed, but with interesting data points....some will have extreme “potential value” ...enough value to buy time (data will be much Cheaper in event of failure)
Ps.
I don’t like geert insinuation idmc continuation comment.
Why’ve didn’t idmc fast forward? Data...???
What’s the arbitrage trade in extinguished? That’s your low parameter and then cut 2/3s and you have your worst case parameter.
Best case is data is incredible.
There are many crossovers in most recent results...ie updated soc. Invariably soc has not been standard for last 5 years...
Read the tape; or pay somebody to say that they did something much after the fact...
Or be somebody who always provided a 24 hour window to posts that can go back for years without failure...
I made more trades than him (but who’s counting). His track record sounds similar to mine....
I posted all mine with 24 hour windows....I think he’s pretending to be me???
Fyi:
I will open blog soon.
$1k -$5k a year with for 3 questions, access to read my random bs, protected by disclosures up the a$$ and laymen interpretation of: guest pay $1k to read my digital bs, and ask me (your purchased friend 3 questions —-it’s like 3 wishes)
It’s become apparent I must monetize my work....
Against the will of advice i will take the same clear (clear for me) approach of pricing out guests (to be so called paying friends) ....to eliminate any adjustment to how I work.
Ps I wanted to charge $5-$10k
Laymen terms:
$ buys you see what I write
3 questions I morally intend to answer to best of my ability...
That’s all folks!
Thank you...forgot about that tool
Pumice, that’s very persuasive coming from you...
I just can’t escape my internal issue.
I do know enough to know that a portion of my disciplines can NOT be applied at this stage with this equity.
There are certain aspects of cvm that demand I overlook my strengths.
The reality is I won’t be able to participate most likely...
A dream situation for me would be participate in the fashion I have over the last year and this hits $100++...and then the experience and insight to trade a similar situation in the future based on said experience....
That would result in the optimum situation for all. More survivorship, longs make money, you make money, right make some money and I learn...
Every trade stands alone me here. I have so much history here...
I really beleive whether success or not cvm should cross a $1b valuation and if it i doesn’t something is wrong....
“Wrong” doesn’t necessarily mean the study...could be financing: risk: hedge : shadow bank???
I’m more than tape read.
Trades stand alone....
My first trade years ago was ~ $3k. I’ve extracted at total of $27k.
My largest allocation was 12k shares last year at 0.80 and sold for roughly ~40% gain.
What is interesting... I would have a return of the same amount if I took $3 at .80 till now and took nothing off the table...
Ps nobody has timing that good!
I agree completely. I just have 2 internal issues that make a “hold position” nearly impossible for me.
Having said that I do completely agree with your assessment of positive results come to fruition.
Under this circumstance; it is unfortunate for me but my style will most likely prohibit me from participating in such an event unless I am watching and it comes clearly across the tape.
Ps
I’ve been putting much more time into tape recently here for that reason.
I bought back today at high 7s and sold at low 8.20s....
I will add there was a fairly strong buy signal end of day at high 7.95-8.02, but wasn’t able to confirm and did NOT re-enter.
Can you clarify : broker failure to deliver error message?
Could it be becuase I’m providing a link back to an ihub post?
Clay, you ever been blocked from stocktwits?
I’ve never been even remotely vulgar anywhere...yet none of my posts go through anymore....
Only thing I’ve done is be extremely accurate
Sold out all of my position at avg 1.37... AH, I took back 5% solely for participation transaction purpose.
Me neither....I sold today at just above 8. Tape Appears to show transfer of risk is taking place...so a decent pull back to be expected
So....what would one do to demonstrate confidence?
Show bank account after the fact?
3rd party oversight bet?
Or tell everybody who listens and doesn’t ask questions what to do?
Buy aeti tomorrow.
Ps. I can only do 2 of the 3; the person I’d like to wager against has 3 more zeros in their account than I. Maybe that’s proof he’s right and I’m wrong? Lol.....who is HE anyways?
Who fn cares if don’t work to learn? Hence...
Don’t forget past discussions that required the same intensive thought at that thoughts present moment.
Do you re-call our discussion of $90++? And the substance?
My expectation is $1billion evaluation to cross prior to any information being disseminated.
Don’t ever insinuate i short please. I can’t fathom that as part of my skill set in 20 More years for an equity like this. Other; i can only wish to have such liquidity...
I have my skill set....you have yours. A blend, of fully understood, would be better.
Side note: every thing I am capable of contemplating says:
Cvm could hit $100
Cvm could go zero
I bought some becuase tape...(hindsight affirmation was interview)...and subsequent change in my personal case of shadow banking...)
If cvm hits $100 i will NOT participate....I have limite for max cap structure.
And trump will be impeached. Not bad for cvm....just saying...
Interesting...I’d like to say in advance i will NOT have opportunity to provide 24 hour window for purchase in advance in this case.
As you all know; I have my strengths and weaknesses. I have internally covered every possibility to best of my ability. From management assessment; funding; ideology; value; management; asset; retail sentiment...
Within that there are subtitles and crossovers....
Toxic funding; capitalism; shadow banking; management; cro/ $1b min to market...and on and on....
Lest I have my weakness...
I attempt to take myself with a grain of salt -value my skill set while embracing my ignorance. Know myself.
1 leverage point was eliminated : geert has been trained. Finally for the better.
1 leverage point potentially optimal : the value of the data (As an goodwill asset) exceeds the current valuation.
Any of you regulars remember my reference to tsla and cvm?
I not a one truck pony; buts it’s amazing the tape told me the story....
I bought the tape today...
Questions?
Nothing has changed for me. We are trading at External take private offer with no premium or risk...
There is a far better trader than me here or said trader has quality to trade as mm!
Risk= no execution on reverse merge AND 12 months is losers associated with such transaction (~ 3 to 5 million usd)....
Proxy in 30 days....
Or worse case; close privatization of company over 12 month period and break even...any reduction in closure of going private would go to share holders.
——
Going to 10k
I don’t like dispute on sale (true up net working capital) is still lingering.
I do like that they continually think it will be minimal...in conjunction with the fact i am aware and
I do appreciate jch Crenshaw track record in courts of law.
I like brazil growth vs real depreciate. In my opionnion real is extreme weak vs usd
I like bomay...and would like more based on trade agreements; but this carries potential increases from base with almost zero risk of deterioration. (Most one sided)
——
Personal-
Look at company as individual....
Some do nothing and think they are winning for getting something.
Some do more/all becuase it is to be....to be best, most honest human you can be.
Some do
Some don’t
I am in. It goes pop, drop, boom! Or pop and boom!
I have been examining every damn scenario possible; I can live with that in event of failure. Can u( I’m asking those that don’t ask and Will eventually; I hope)?
There is an overriding transaction....yet to cross...
I even pulllef a “new” last straw out...to try and dissuade myself.
My new last straw was: there is no way an equity can afford my return on investment without eventually extracting more from me. I am not that good at this aspect of trading as my returns show (I truely know this: I am not as good at this aspect vs my strengths...do you see...??? Why it’s the last straw and why I know I am right?
First/ It is the last straw becuase it forces me to be contrarian to myself on my final deciding factor after had previously exhausted myself extinguishing every scenario possible.
Second/ I know becuase my actual participation (I know my position, previous postions/returns)....
Having said that...(well you know my position)
Some people call me a slow learner....
I’d like to think I just went deeper rather than scratch a surface....
My belief lies in the hope of what “i’d Like to think”...
Sorry...but be obvious if joking around or ask?
Asking always seems to be met with vacancy...I’d like to figure that out; bought that require borderline conspiracy - which I’m definitely NOT a fan of.
Ie.
One could use history to build thesis that form 4 with code P were met with pump and dumps.
It happens.
In this case I don’t beleive so.
I am aware it could be as a parameter.
(Note : discoveries are made within a hypothesis.)
There is a truth within all contemplated/thought.
My opionion is the geert is terrible...for the same reasons Elon is terrible.
I don’t think past form 4 p code were for pump and dump...i simple think he feels validated by the response of pps movement. I think he genuinely buys. But he is not vested in the biz. He is vested in pps reactionary. Essentially he is the worse trader ever. Nobody in the world has the capital to sustain life let alone of an account with money : if investing was sole source of income??... u realize all the irony I displayed?
A down round now would be catastrophic!
Thanks for sharing.
If it closes out positive for you? Would you mind providing your tally so ONE could compare vs spy over same time period and also vs a market timer like myself?
I’ve got no problem with making bets on ones beliefs... I just want to know what those beliefs are if possible....