$1MM or bust
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Aw man and I was so looking forward to watching you bash the stock more.
Just doubled my position here. I am a martingale trader what can I say?
Atom tickets is Moviepass latest victim! AMZN effect!
Bullish PR campaign OTW: From the article:
Pretty sure TSLA CEO just settled for securities fraud and Uber CEO was removed for cussing out an UBER driver.
Kalanick:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/news/2017/06/21/uber-ceo-traivs-kalanick-resigns-report/103060200/
Continue to preach how bad Moviepass CEO's are though.
Thing is, though...
Musk is a killer...
Kalanick is a killer..
So are Moviepass CEOs...
The sheep might complain, but the truth is management took action for the investor's benefit, for their own benefit. Because they are serious about Moviepass's future.
See how far-reaching and green the forest? Ignore the few dead trees at the entrance.
It's a screwed up situation, we can agree on that. It's definitely not the end-all-be-all of Moviepass existence however. It is not the death of Moviepass. Moviepass is not a heartbeat away from death. Moviepass is recovering from a car accident. It is surviving. It is taking the hits and pushing through. Didn't you see Ali-Frasier?
We are not Ali. We are Frasier. We take a beating and we keep going.
Desperate cash grab does not mean bad management decision, just ask Elon.
What % will retained as a result of this move? I am willing to bet quite a bit.
What % will defect as a result? I am willing to bet less.
This is the business equivalent of dumping bait in the water. Let's just see who bites.
This is a non-issue. Legally, they didn't cancel, they let their subscription lapse. If the didn't want to continue, then it can't hurt our bottom-line anymore besides. Many companies have done/do the same, just try signing up for any free-trial online. This is very casual to any habitual user of subscription services. Besides, you want killers running your company not a bunch of limp-armed Todds. Moviepass is run by killers. Zuckerberg is a killer, Bezos is a killer, make no mistake. If they're doing whatever it takes to survive, then I am behind them 100%. Success in this life isn't about thriving, it's about surviving. Because MOST don't, and just to be able to survive makes you worth more than MOST.
I am glad Moviepass has the balls to do this, it speaks volumes for management's determination to make a race out of this. I am behind Moviepass because they are trying to KILL the current model, which, as an avid movie watcher (I spent over $600 in 1H 2018 on movies), I can attest to the value of. I LIKE Moviepass, I WANT Moviepass. I feel sorry for any who stand in the way of people and their movies.
Moviepass has all the financial problems of a major start-up, the difference is they are publicly traded so they have to air it out, and so unlike most of the SCV unicorns, the market speaks when it looks bad. But, you tell me that Uber, Bird, Tesla or whomever didn't/doesn't have larger financial problems and yet average Joe will tell you that's where to put your money.
Tell me why Moviepass model isn't viable. Ignore their finances. Tell me why the current model isn't viable.
You can't, because it is viable. Media won't tell you that, they are hoping it dies so their advertisers can buy the subscribers on the cheap. But it won't die. It's way past dying. It would have been dead two months ago if it was going to die.
Oscar season is approaching, if Moviepass survives, the death of Moviepass is over (tautology, I know). Doubts disappear as everyone and their mother uses Moviepass to see the Oscar contenders on the cheap. And if not this year, the next year, and all years as long as MP survives, which it will because the model is viable and the creditors exist to keep this going.
Think about the future, isn't it more likely the Moviepass model succeeds? Don't all the successes we've seen with subscription models add up to a trend? The future determines the value of Moviepass. And the future is BRIGHT for this business model.
Profitability is frankly not even necessary for a huge valuation these days, just ask most of the IPOs this year:
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-10-01/worse-dot-com-bubble-money-losing-companies-are-going-public-record-rate
If NFLX can be profitable at 7.99 a month, Moviepass most definitely can at 9.95.
That's 15% growth with growth dropping 80% every month. Growth is going to be absolutely stagnant in October.
GF and I just used Moviepass this weekend to see Night School, which came out this weekend, the e-ticket mechanism worked beautifully and I spent the $20 I saved on food items.
The death of Moviepass has been greatly exaggerated.
Nothing is certain. Besides, if all you had to do to make money in the stock market is short diluting companies, it would be too easy to make money. And it isn't that easy, because every so often, chasing that diluting company leaves with you with an unpayable margin call.
AMC subscriber growth is near zero right now, after doubling subscribers in August, they only gained 15% in September, and it will be much less in October. They will be losing subscribers before the end of the year. Check my other post for the analysis.
Whether it's 3,4, or 5 million subscribers is fairly irrelevant. Someone said the website says "over 3 million", so I will just stick with that. It's still an order of magnitude more than AMC will ever get. Considering your average movie scores about 1-2 million viewers on opening weekend, it's in a range I feel good about.
My shares just voted no.
I'm sure they are doing this out of the goodness of their hearts.
HMNY is the new InsurTech business!
https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2018/09/28/502603.htm
To put it bluntly. You are not seeing the forest for the trees. That's only a problem because they are on the outside, looking in. Any ambitious movie studio with a vision can put the ecosystem has Moviepass created to work for them in a way that will be both profitable and revolutionary to movie-going. Unrelated financial problems aside, the business model they are proposing is viable and valuable to movie studios. You will able to subscribe to productions of major movie studios like you already do to HBO and Netflix.
My guess is the mini-majors are ready to start fighting for HMNY and not interested in waiting until bankruptcy, given the advantage a first-mover has in the arena, as Moviepass has proven.
HMNY is currently doing $360-600 million in revenue annually
a profit margin of 10% implies $36-60 million ebitda
$36-60 million ebitda implies a valuation (10*ebitda) of $360 million - $600 million
a profit margin of 1% implies $3.6 to 6 million ebitda
$3.6 to 6 million ebitda implies a valuation (10*ebitda) of $36 million - $60 million
Conservatively, HMNY is a $100 million company. In the future, $1 billion easy.
Some short terms problems exist, we know. Long term, prospects look very good. We have great cash flow.
Extrapolate this into the future and the valuations grow larger!
Have faith in what you already thought was a good idea friends.
Exactly. Why do one? IMO they wont.
In my opinion, they have no idea what they need to do, and if they did, they don't have the people to do it. They need to sell. That's their best move.
They have a viable business model, they can show that this weekend, but they need their finances cleaned up and new management. They have basically squeezed everything they can out of this stock.
I don't see how that is considered a viable option by management. You kick the can one more month and ensure the death of the company.
With Monsters & Men supposed to be a leader at the box office this weekend, the merit of the vertically-integrated movie business model will be tested. Then we will see what happens Monday.
In less than two months it will be negative growth if you just extrapolate. Growth has gone from 200% in July to 100% in August down to 15% MoM in September. October growth should come in around 1-3% or less (see negative).
That's it. 400k-500k subscribers is the peak for AMC.
They think they are going to get a million in a year...no. A million americans will not be paying AMC $20 a month, ever.
MP is right in the sweet spot. 3-5 million subscribers at $10 a month right NOW.
AMC's subscriber program is dying.. read inside
380,000 today 9/26
https://variety.com/2018/film/news/amc-a-list-moviepass-1202958185/
... inside they said they added 120,000 over 6 weeks....
260,000 9/5
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/china-billionaire-wang-jianlin-reportedly-wants-to-cut-amc-stake-2018-9-1027511428
...that would put this number at approximately 8/15 not the 9/5 of the article date... so pro-rata that's 30,000 per week added... meaning there was 320,000 subscribers a/o 9/1...
175,000 7/31
https://www.businessinsider.com/amc-theatres-subscription-service-has-over-175000-subscribers-2018-7
If you read my notes inside the ellipses dots, it's clear that AMC only grew by 60,000 subscribers this month... a relatively anemic 15% growth MoM in its subscribers compared to the previous month growth of nearly 100% during what should be the highest-growth phase of the rollout... and growth is shrinking at a rapid pace... they will not be able to compete with Moviepass at all at this rate. They've nearly saturated their market at under 500,000 subscribers. For October, AMC may see negative growth (i.e. subscribers leaving). Sinemia not much better.
They had 3 million months ago ...
https://variety.com/2018/film/news/moviepass-3-million-subscribers-1202844428/
Last month they had 1 million new subscribers in a week..
https://www.foxbusiness.com/media/moviepass-rebounding-after-1m-new-subscribers-in-a-week
That's at least 5 million by now.
AMZN buying an independent movie chain - Moviepass does it's best business on independent movies.. connect the dots people . . . . . . . . buyout.
https://therealdeal.com/2018/08/18/amazons-rumored-bid-for-movie-theater-chain-opens-up-possibility-for-disruption-in-the-biz/
XXX billion could mean 0.1 billion or 1.1 billion. Why would they hide it? There's a big difference. And being "conservative" means being "opinionated".
Filings say no such thing! You clearly have rose-colored glasses on, you even got your market capitalization calculations wrong.
From proxy statement:
I will happily take the other side of that bet. Moviepass is streamlining the movie industry by connecting consumers directly to production studios. It's a viable business model and it will succeed as a vertically integrated theater film entertainment business. I am guessing they are already at 5 million subscribers.
They will announce a profit-sharing deal with a major movie studio next I imagine.
They want to RS to stay listed on NASDAQ. They can do that, but any amount of dilution will just send it below the min bid req again.
It isn't how the market works and statistics aren't facts. Infer all you want, it will not lead you to truth. You admit you don't know the issuance and you are just guessing based on trading volumes, which means you are double, triple, or quadruple (or quintuple) counting the same shares depending on how frequently they were traded. I am sure if you take into the account the amount of trading during that period, you'll find that more than adequately accounts for the volumes you describe.
You're saying the market is willing to pay 2x what the market is already saying the entire company is worth. That is not how markets work.
That's like saying Amazon could raise $2 trillion dollars in capital if they just did a reverse split and issued shares.
Think about how ridiculous that sounds. That is what you are saying. And it wouldn't work for the same reason: there is no market for that amount of issuance.
Shipping industry is definitely getting some attention. Nearly every stock in the entire sector was up at least 5% today.
Here's some current news: stop and look at this situation. There cannot be more dilution because there is no market for the billions of shares you're thinking about. Find me the market makers willing to support this stock when that starts happening. The reason we're in pennies right now is because bids have disappeared from the last round. They try it again and their stock is going to trip zeros (or sub-dollar after RS) and they WILL get delisted.
A $10 million stock cannot raise $20 million via dilution. I'm not sure how much money you think a $10 million company can raise via dilution, but it isn't that amount.There is no market for that amount of shares.
Management is now in a position where dilution as a strategy for raising capital is not possible for them. So the specter of dilution is just that, a ghost. Shareholders do not need to fear a toothless threat.
in the billions, with convertible notes outstanding, OS is 26-30 million.
Shipping stocks are bubbling today, even FREEF got some taps on the ask.
From Mitch Lowe Reddit AMA, he intimates Moviepass will be profitable by end of year. They will be generating $50 million+ a month just in subscription revenue by then. $600 million - $1 billion annually. I really don't see how finding financing is an issue. Many would be glad to have a finger in this pie.
Just wait until old fogies realize during Oscar season they can watch 5 Oscar-nominated indie films a month this winter thanks to Moviepass :P
https://www.reddit.com/r/movies/comments/8u00y3/im_mitch_lowe_ceo_of_moviepass_ama/?utm_source=amp&utm_medium=comment_list
If we believe Moviepass executives, they are at or past breakeven.
If they are positive cash-flow (most importantly), they can pay interest on debt, their assets are certainly well-known to be valuable so there is a lower risk-profile for their creditors than most believe. I see favorable financing terms in HMNY's future.
These equity stakes mentioned in the PR today may not turn out to be home-run hits, but they are solid, the business makes sense, and eventually there WILL be a home-run hit that Moviepass is part of and/or gets the responsibility for fostering. That will also happen repeatedly for Moviepass.
Moviepass is basically freerolling bets on equity in movies by paying for their stake with their service. My guess is they are using the money they make from their deal with the movie theaters to buy their stakes in the movies. A middle man for indie-films/theaters who might have negotiated a better revenue-sharing structure with the theaters but could not.
They are becoming a vertically integrated movie company, owning theaters is all that is left. That's undeniably fascinating. AND they are threatening a sustained movement of eyeballs away from the big budget films to independent/cult/critically-acclaimed/lower-budget films. The ROI for small-time movie producers seems to be increasing with use of Moviepass as well, that should spark some interesting trends. A democratization of film?
No question, the pot has been successfully stirred in the movie industry.
I am willing to speculate Moviepass will reach 5-10 million subscribers sooner than the market believes.
HMNY's business model is getting very interesting.
Interestingly, this model aligns itself nicely with the production companies of Netflix and Amazon who may be interesting in exploring the model through an acquisition if/when it proves viable.
They should be CBD-infused I think. Which is right up our alley. The media is incorrect in saying "pot".