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Days, weeks, months?
No idea how trade will play out in the coming months.
However, we could have said in:
JAN: I'll wait on trade.
FEB: I'll wait on trade.
MAR: I'll wait
APR: I'll wait
MAY: I'll wait
JUN: I'll wait
JUL: I'll wait
AUG: I'll wait
SEP: I'll wait
OCT: I'll wait
NOV: I'll wait https://t.co/omOwfIdJzg
Given trade issues could hit/pass deadlines, good to keep in mind after 2016 low and within a bullish trend S&P futures went limit down twice (Brexit referendum and U.S. election). In both cases, the bull trend resumed after panic.
Not a prediction; just good to know. #Prudent
Been involved with the markets since the 1990s. (1993 - 4 surfcat)If memory serves, we have lived in so-called "unprecedented times" with markets that are dealing with "unprecedented conditions" every single day over the past 30 years.
Notice the previous Dow table tweet is based on something that just happened in 2019, which is quite a bit different from something that "may" happen, "could" happen, or "should" happen.
Day by Day.
In early December 2018, market knew Fed had a big meeting on Dec 19th, and Fed failed to deliver what the market wanted to hear.
We have a similar big event w/Dec 15th tariff deadline.
Q: How did the market look before the big events in each case?
A: https://t.co/uuhwuiYQZE https://t.co/Y2udlzRkI8
Weighing Risks of Another December Stock Market Plunge - https://t.co/dOSoqe1qgD by @CiovaccoCapital $SPY $SPXhttps://www.seeitmarket.com/sp-500-index-weighing-risks-of-another-december-stock-market-plunge/
WEIGHT OF THE EVIDENCE
Common sense tells us, even in the strongest of strong bull markets, we can find concerning data points and scary narratives. There is always something to be concerned about. Markets move based on the weight of the evidence. Therefore, we are constantly evaluating present-day data points and looking for signals that confirm or contradict the bullish hypothesis that was formed in early January 2019.
https://www.ccmmarketmodel.com/short-takes/stock-signal-supports-secular-trend-thesis
From 1/24/19 @SeekingAlpha Post:
"9 of the 25 historical cases posted S&P 500 gains of better than 40% over 2-yrs, reminding us difficult market situations can be followed by satisfying gains."
10 New Studies via tweet in lower portion of image below.
https://t.co/wLymID5Z5Z https://t.co/wp6zlffO5r
CNBC’s Jim Cramer says these are the best "[economic] numbers I’ve seen in my life." He declares we’re going to win the trade war now because our economy is so much stronger than anyone else. These numbers "are a blessing."
Democrats are FURIOUS today. https://t.co/W1Gu47yAkN
Stocks and impeachment
"Trades with March contract futures overlay...Here is an example of what I was talking about. This is a 30minute chart of UNG which is the NG ETF. To compare I've overlaid the March 12 futures chart in blue to show how well they track together. But my point is to see the price 'channel' sideways and then continue the downtrend. At the same time see price run-up to the 20ema even on this 30-minute chart and not just the daily. A downtrend line also exists but that is not always the case unless the trend is consistent. The 20ema will move with price and will still act as rolling resistance just so long as a trend in any time frame exists. If price channels for awhile price can and will whipsaw through the 20ema as it tracks sideways. This occurs will all moving averages or anything based on them. But see how well this works as a guide to a trend continuation. Plus the channels to trade off of still work as well. What I wanted to point out is with a 5 minute chart or less those short channels look much the same but are much much weaker and fail far more often as they are channels made up with 5 minute bars or less and while they still look like a support channel bottom you would not even see them on a 30 minute chart most of the time. So the chart looks the same with various channels but channels made up with 15minute or 30-minute bars are far stronger and more dependable than the smaller time frame channels. You likely already know this but I did want to clarify the difference. See price this morning run-up to the 20ema as usual and back off again."
2012 charting before UGAZ, similar action?
"Continues to plunge to new lows and is now in the "Handbasket" and has entered the "CRASH AND BURN ZONE". Prices are 'capitulating' and washing out longs but will bounce back to the 20ema or even the downtrend line at some point. Being short is getting way too easy despite the obvious downtrend. A trailing stop above would be a good idea if short any trade based on NG. Meanwhile, the trend is your friend."
Given trade negotiations with China have stalled, it may be helpful to identify some short-term S&P 500 levels to watch. Market Studies, LLC has a tool known as "propulsion" which defines short-term momentum and determines potential support/resistance during those periods.
Propulsion identified 3032 as a reasonable upside target and area of possible resistance on June 3, when the S&P 500 was trading at 2744. From the June low, the market rallied toward 3032 and was rejected at that level in July (point A) and again in September (point B). The S&P finally broke above 3032 on October 28. The concept of "what once acted as resistance, may now act as support" aligns with the current target/area of possible support which comes in at 3041.
No alt text provided for this image
There is nothing magical about any technique to establish possible areas of support and resistance. Price may or may not make a stand near 3041. However, we will learn something from a probability perspective either way (holds vs. stays below).
Second Line Of Defense
This week's Ciovacco Capital Management stock market video covered the "what once acted as resistance, may now act as possible support" concept from a different perspective. The 2870-2950 band of resistance below was in place for seventeen months. If the trade talks shift back into a hostile phase, it would not be shocking to see the market come back and test this previous band of resistance. If that is the case, we will learn something either way. A detailed description of the chart below can be found in this video clip.
Chris Ciovacco - second band of possible S&P 500 support.
Reasons To Remain Open-Minded
When screens are covered in red, it can be helpful to review a wide range of hard data. Recent posts have covered rare equity outflows, similar drops in ISM manufacturing data, and a rare signal in the MSCI World Index.
Published By
Chris Ciovacco
From Monday Post:
The S&P 500 made an intraday low of 2855 on October 3; from that low, the S&P 500 rallied 299 points, hitting the recent intraday high of 3154 on November 27. Some giveback or retracement after a 299 point move would not fall into the shocking category. https://t.co/nLZhdyoEEY
While stalled China trade negotiations/increasing tensions are a legitimate concern, we also have to respect Trump's comments are most likely a tactic to try to get things moving again. All TBD. Day By Day. https://t.co/IDV34ZjAKB
Trend before today's trade comments was up. If that is going to change, which may be the case, we will see significant shifts in the data in the coming weeks. That may happen; has not happened yet. Day by Day. https://t.co/EunDeo08AJ
RARE AND RAPID DROP IN ISM MANUFACTURING
https://www.ccmmarketmodel.com/short-takes/2019/10/1/similar-drops-in-ism-manufacturing-data
DAY BY DAY
"All of the below speak to probabilities, which is significantly different from certainty. We will continue to take it day by day with an open mind about a wide range of outcomes, from wildly bullish to wildly bearish."
https://www.ccmmarketmodel.com/short-takes/rare-equity-fund-outflows
This Global Stock Signal Has Only Been Seen Five Other Times Since 1998
How Did Stocks Perform Following Previous Signals? https://t.co/zbq4I2JeGn
$VTI $ACWI $SPY $ACWX #Markets https://t.co/q04WLnFvLV
Okay, thank you very much.
funny Ronald Reagon.
Thx for reply
Luck has it I held for a year then bought more week before big move started above $80.
I started hedging with Dgaz and that other short ETF kold or boil? Forgot I'm old
The way I play it now is long futures and short ETF, easier to adjust before they open ETF trading.
G'Morning CODA
Here is a c/p of a post from early this year, btw sorry for the typo errors on that last post.
This UGAZ has been a long strange trip, "
surfcat Friday, 03/01/19 03:56:14 PM
Post # of 22673
Early December 2017 I was holding 2000 shares @62 of UGAZ price then started heading down below 50 almost sold, luck has it shot up to 80 then back down to 58 in the next few weeks, almost selling again. By the end of January 2018, it moved up to 105 and started shorting futures when it moved below 100. On November 2nd really luckier has it that I closed my short futures at a small loss and sold half of my UGAZ just under 80 only to see it rocket up to above 250. Sold all UGAZ day before that one big up day to 250.
The reason I'm writing this is that every time I want to bail out and when I do bail out on my longs over the years, starting way back in the early days before UGAZ was created, it was the exact opposite of what I needed to do, LoL"
btw, the Sunday evening before nat gas mini futures gapped up big well above $80, my son needed money so he sold me his UGAZ share@$80 giving him a nice gain, that next week UGAZ shot up to unbelievable heights, $260 when I started adding to my short 3x ETF nat gas and wish I would have held it, and still holding it today.
Markets and the weight of the evidence. https://t.co/2ylEiTUAcZ
The post and WSJ article state facts; you are welcome to adjust them in any way you see fit. Regardless, cash levels are at the highest levels in nearly a decade.
The Dow is trying to nail down a monthly MACD cross. How have stocks performed after similar MACD moves dating back to 1948? Answer in this week's video:
https://ccmmarketmodel.com/short-takes/2019/11/27/stocks-and-a-window-of-opportunity…
$DIA $INDU #DowIndustrials #Markets #MACD
6 Historic S&P 500 Charts To Better Gauge Today’s Market - https://seeitmarket.com/6-historic-sp-500-charts-to-better-gauge-todays-stock-market/… October article by
@CiovaccoCapital
$SPY
From @WSJ:
"Assets in money-market funds have grown by $1 trillion over the last three years to their highest level in around a decade."
Details: https://t.co/p23qHuu3LB https://t.co/94L9qvUSAz
I been involved in a R/S before, had a lot of decay from holding for months, might be a year, I dont remember.
I DID MAKE ALL THAT TIME CAY BACK PLUS SOME FROM LAST YEARS SPIKE TO AVOVE 260... I CLOSED NEAR 137. BUT IT IS A LOT DIFFERENT NOW I THINK? 30 TOPS IF WE GET THINGS GOING IN OUR FAVOR. JUST A GUESS. BUYING MORE SOON LAST BUY WAS SMALL 11.98
YRYING FEEL MY WAY INTO BOTTOM
I have read a lot of traders saying reverse split coming but not from the folks who manage this ETF.
If that happens I'll multiply my position by ten.
I have not watched this video yet, is what I wanted to write. ahimsak.
It was, sorry didn't have enough time to ad your handle.
I have listened to this yet we are watching Netflix movies.
Let me know what you think if you watch this, k.
Not really, halve of these contributors are opposite of what the other half believe and back in politics.
I voted for Obama and this last election voted for the Donald trump.
That was a tweet by Halrado Rivera and the others were copy/paste tweets Chris C.
Chris Ciovacco
@CiovaccoCapital
Noteworthy is the fact the major cyclical S&P 500 low made in 1962 has never been revisited.
The gap mentioned on November 19 has been filled. Market will decide if it constitutes a successful retest. pic.twitter.com/aLLF2N83rs
— Chris Ciovacco (@CiovaccoCapital) November 22, 2019
Re #CollusionHoax it’s not @realDonaldTrump denying #Russia interfered w our 2016 election. It’s Democrats & house media relentlessly flogging Proven False narrative that Americans Conspired w Russia to fix the election. When do they Apologize to Trump & USA for wasting our time?
JFK assassination also illustrates the existing trend often remains in place regardless of the headlines.
Trend was up before and after JFK.
Trend was down before and after September 11th.
Trend was down before and after Lehman collapse.
November 22, 1963 has some market parallels to 2019. The S&P 500 made a major cyclical low in 1962 and was in a bullish cyclical trend the day JFK died; that trend was in the context of a secular bullish trend (1950-1973). The strong uptrend resumed after the assassination. https://t.co/v5V71GzoLk
The gap mentioned on November 19 has been filled. Market will decide if it constitutes a successful retest. https://t.co/aLLF2N83rs
'Phase One' U.S.-China trade deal may not be completed this year:... https://t.co/NBX29NINZ9
S&P 500 is testing the first of two gaps noted previously. https://t.co/qgsdZIMEk9
Could have said this every year:
2009 – The Fed rally is fake.
2010 – The Fed rally is fake.
2011 – The Fed rally is fake.
2012 – The Fed rally is fake.
2013 – The Fed rally is fake.
2014 – The Fed rally is fake.
2015 – The Fed rally is fake.
2016 – The Fed rally is fake.
There are short term concerns now for stocks. But from a longer term momentum perspective:
MSCI World Index has been in a persistent uptrend. 28 days above its 10 dma
When this happened in the past, global stocks rallied 91% of the time 6-12 months later https://t.co/EUTbAm8ik8
I read you, elators, "A Recent Stat On Cash Balances, Especially In This Context, Falls Into The "Wow" Category
Details and Charts:
https://t.co/ygY2AlAXzq https://t.co/25XNswcMFI
NEW Article: “Blow Off Stock Market Top? History Says Not Yet” - https://t.co/r7OlYiUPPB by @CiovaccoCapital
$SPX $COMPQ $DJIA https://t.co/QxjnhnEvg4
Today Looks Nothing Like Blow-Off Top
Details and Historical Perspective: https://t.co/ex4AWBHvUu
$DIA $QQQ $SPY #StockMarket https://t.co/EMFpiasgaq
"The secret to the Hindenburg Omen is knowing which signals to use and which to ignore.
Only pay attention to the ones which precede major market crashes while ignoring all of the rest . . .
https://ritholtz.com/2015/04/beware-of-indicators-that-predict-nothing/…
Image
"Indicator utility changes when a market is in a range versus a market that is trending. We must adjust the way we use and assess indicators and inputs based on changing market conditions."
Yes, Chris takes into account both the technical and fundamental data.
"It sounds scary to say "the Fed is out of bullets". The Fed could cut rates seven times by 25 basis points before reaching zero, and then they have other tools at their disposal, including QE.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/uimage/uploads/2019/11/16/mydgdfullsizeoutput_28ed.jpeg