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coursy's intelligence service
Tullow, the company exploiting the reserves in Uganda, and also the company planning to move forward with the tapping of the new discoveries in Kenya, is pushing to build a new refinery and power plant in Hoima, and a new pipeline starting there and running via Lira, Moroto, the Turkana basin and on to Port Lamu.
South Sudan, Ethiopia and Kenya have already agreed to partner in the developments of the Lapsset Corridor project. This will see a new port be constructed in Lamu that is purpose built for the transportation of hydrocarbons, a new oil refinery, and also a new highway and railway line through Ethiopia.
The details of the new deal between Toyota and South Sudan are still vague but it is believed to be worth about $4 billion, and the expectation is that it will focus primarily on the construction of a new pipeline from the country’s oil fields to the Turkana basin, where it can link with the rest of the network being built to export oil via Kenya.
The only remaining sticking point is security – at present the various difficult security situations in that part of the African continent leave open the possibility of banditry. However, this is a problem that can be managed with a little planning. If a sufficient amount of the benefits from the construction of these export routes is seen by local populations, such as construction jobs, and revenues from the oil sales, then the improvements in the local economies will make it ever more important to the locals to keep the project going. It may require the deployment of extra peace-keeping forces in the short term, but in the long run the projects have the potential to be stabilising factors.
Winners and losers, and learning the hard way
If these projects go ahead, and it seems almost certain that they will in some form or other, there will be some distinct winners and losers. The most obvious winner is South Sudan, which will no-longer be reliant on an export route through an intransigent neighbour that is happy to use oil exports as a bargaining chip. It will have increased Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in the country and can look forward to not only higher but also more assured revenues from its oil, and all the benefits that go along with that.
A huge water source has been discovered in the arid Turkana region of northern Kenya which could supply the country for 70 years. Turkana is in the Rift Valley, and despite the presence of Lake Turkana it is one of Kenya’s most arid regions.
Two aquifers have been discovered, in the Turkana Basin and Lotikipi Basin, using satellites and radar. These results were confirmed through test drilling.
Last year, scientists released a map detailing the vast reservoirs which lie under much of Africa, and water sources can clearly be seen here under Kenya’s northern regions and under Turkana in the north-west in particular (see map).
Likely aquifer productivity
Source: Environmental Research Letters
Turkana is one of the hottest, driest and poorest parts of Kenya and was hit by a devastating drought last year. Many of the region’s inhabitants are nomadic herders who are especially vulnerable to a lack of rain.
Banditry is rife in the region, and this could prevent the benefits of the newly found water source and recently discovered oil reserves (see below) being realised.
Overexploitation and a lack of proper resource management could also be a significant threat to long-term gain.
Kenya’s Environment Minister Judi Wakhungu announced the water discovery at a meeting of the UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (Unesco).
“This newly found wealth of water opens a door to a more prosperous future for the people of Turkana and the nation as a whole”, she said. “We must now work to further explore these resources responsibly and safeguard them for future generations.”
The aquifers are believed to hold some 250bn m3 of water. Ms. Wakhungu said Kenya currently uses about 3bn m3 per year.
“We’re hoping with the two test boreholes, the water should be available within a month. The first priority is to supply water to the people of the area, who have always been water insecure,” said Ms. Wakhungu.
Massive oil deposits have also recently been discovered in Turkana. As we discussed in our June 2013 issue of Courcy’s Future Threats, Tullow, the company already exploiting new oil reserves in Uganda, is planning to move forward with the tapping of the new discoveries in Kenya. It is pushing to build a new refinery and power plant in Hoima, and a new pipeline starting there and running via Lira, Moroto, the Turkana basin and on to Port Lamu. A guaranteed improved water source close to the Kenyan oil reserves will make life much easier for Tullow.
However, Abou Amani, Unesco’s Africa hydrologist, urged caution and said it was important not to “overexploit” the aquifers. “We need to put in place a sound management system,” he said.
The head of the non-governmental organisation Friends of Lake Turkana, Ikal Anglei, said the government also needed to engage more with local communities. “Unfortunately they’re not creating forums for us to engage with them,” she said. “It is critical for governments to realise they don’t… come up with programmes without community ownership… and linking it to economic development.”
A good way of bringing the local population on-side and generating, as Ikal Anglie said, “community ownership” is to make sure people see a tangible benefit as soon as possible. Rapidly creating the infrastructure to create widespread, managed access to the water would be a good start. To maintain popular support it will also be important for the local population to see some of the benefits of the oil industry, such as by making sure company’s working to exploit the reserves invest in other infrastructure in the region such as road building and schools projects.
I agree about the insider buys look encouraging....as do the option chains
hey stockwoman...clicked your link did not see mention of lightsream?
this is one of those stocks that I am just going to forget about for now....as long as al shabib or whatever they are called still control parts of the region its too dangerous...U.S. special forces got turned back from the region because of fierce resistance after the Kenyan mall attack.
Maybe horn can negotiate a longer term for the blocks until things are more stable....they said they were going to do some exploratory seismic or something in 2014 I think it would be wiser to extend the leases and wait a few years
have you guys seen the January option volume today?
PUT:
5.00 875
CALL:
6.00 3540
7.00 3150
LOOKS BULLISH TO ME!
northsun-not sure how recent that CNN ownership link is...I was looking on MSN and Morningstar institutional ownership and it seemed to me selling to buying is less than 1% of outstanding shares perhaps my math is wrong but it looks like not all that much is being sold but very little is being bought
if you look at the Montreal Stock exchange options for January 14,it looks like call options are:
5.00 1645
7.00-8.00 4888
9.00-10.00 1588
put options:
5.00 1598
option chain looks bullish but no volume to speak of last few days
http://www.m-x.ca/nego_cotes_en.php?symbol=LTS*
YES I have to reign in my thoughts a bit or they get removed hee hee no free speech here ya know..,wish I had sold some at 9.95 and bought back at 8.00!
I was reading about a man named Sam Gary who discovered the Bell Creek oilfield in Wyoming USA that produced 130 million barrels of crude and made him a fortune.
However,before he struck oil he drilled 33 dry holes in a row
AOIFF drills 5 for 5 good holes and the stock drops 2 dollars because of a dry patch?...what a bunch of risk adverse pussies!
wish that were true kayakbob but I have read CO2 is close to same results for a lower price on some formations....believe gasfrac is best but more expensive...it really comes into play when water is in short supply (like eagle ford) from what LITTLE I HAVE READ
WELL looks like its Texas that's pushing up the price...looks like LPG works best at Eagle Ford
very interesting indeed
I saw some of your posts regarding watching what I say because people over there may be reading these posts etc etc....well if they are reading hear this: you guys need to quit your quibbling and get those wells drilled and those pipelines in as soon as possible because new air metal batteries are coming that will finally make electric cars practical...they will have ranges as far as gasoline cars and be capable of being charged thousands of times....millions will be made car manufacturers are already buying lithium mines...although there will still be millions of automobiles running on gas,as the vehicles come out the price of oil may gradually go down
the faster they can get the oil to market,the more profit can be made...north Africa is in a sweet spot in time where electric cars are not here in force yet and conventional oil is hard to find they will NEVER get this golden opportunity again!
GO AOIFF!...
of course 1 meter is close to 3 feet 3.28 to be exact so 328 feet! alright!
was wondering....has ANY explorer EVER hit five out of five times?....and how come absolutely NOTHING in U.S. newspapers or TV or any media about this???..all I hear is the Bakken (missed Kodiak at 5 bucks dam)....
lots of volume and price increase...WHY? anybody know???
well I got a few shares of new Zealand too figure china will be buying that up its down to .26 cents now
http://www.inautonews.com/total-number-of-cars-in-china-hits-240m-as-air-quality-reaches-hazardous-levels#.UowI26LTmM8
pump up the volume!
was watching a howard stern show interview of sally jessy Raphael interview and she was saying there were only 1000 passenger automobiles in china (this was early 90's)...did some research there are now 120 MILLION registered passenger cars in china according to internet...and this oil here does NOT need to be fracked unlike New Zealand and bakken oil
whats the problem now???..thought all their ducks were in line now it drops like a rock??....was watching a howard stern show interview of sally jessy Raphael interview and she was saying there were only 1000 passenger automobiles in china (this was early 90's)...did some research there are now 120 MILLION registered passenger cars in china according to internet...dam this stock should be flying!
been on slow rise since april but still lower than last year at this time....like to see it at 11 or 12 year end
" They rejected a 700 Million Dollar offer for 10% recently"
....
where did you get that information gimo?...I would have thought they would have GLADLY accepted that deal
well it seems they got things worked out..i'm just thankful its financial/job issues and not that religious fundamentalists/ethnic colonization/ madness that seems to be taking hold east and north of these parts not forgetting the Kenyan mall tragedy
these people are demanding a share of revenue...NONE of which exists or will exist until the oil is flowing....if they cannot read or write or have oil rig skills perhaps they will have to wait until the oil is flowing to see indirect benefits such as roads,schools,hospitals, and maybe even direct benefits such as jobs on the pipeline.
here in the U.S., anybody that claims they are owners of the land must still pay taxes to the U.S. government or the land will be taken away....except for Indians...so who owns the land?..the locals or the Kenyan government?....if the locals own the land,then AOIFF should demand back all money paid to the Kenyan government for the claims and give it to the locals
if the Kenyan government is the owner,they need to act like it
its possible these people have valid complaints but if its just a big mouth stirring up locals for his own gain,a heavy hand is needed
remember in sierra leone whwn a local radio host stirred up people in the titsi and tutu conflict he was charged with murder although he did not commit the crimes
this is of course not as serious but the same principle applies he should be charged with the vandalism and property damage even if he did not directly take part if he indeed did incite
red 32x investment at current price??
wonder if institutions getting back in?...close to double volume
I agree red price going up AFTER dilution is a sign of substantial institutional backing
aoiff finds massive oil and the share price goes down...they announce dilution and it jumps a dollar what a strange stock maybe institutional buying now that financing for drilling secured?
I agree with scarbender do not much like being told 700 million for 10% deal along with financing will not be needed until 2014 AND saying dilution is "last alternative"....and then doing 180 about face it stinks
on the other hand if red is correct and we hit a major deposit and hit 14 this year I will happily eat crow at least offering is within range of current price NOT like last time they pulled this shit
wow red! you are an optimist! but don't you feel somewhat betrayed by the talk of 700 million for 10% deal and ALSO them saying something about fund raising in 2014?...also,remember the big sell off at 11 BEFORE dilution announcement was made?...no way this stock will see the 14 this year
well no comments on the new shares?..yeah so much for the 700 million for 10% deal looks like it was so we would not sell before the dilution....this is not the first time the shareholders have been duped do not think we will see 14 this year now UNLESS a MAJOR new discovery is made...losing faith in management of course someone knew..... they were selling (AGAIN..remember the big sell off at 11?)
u heard anything red on this?..i jumped in for 10,000 shares figure the risk to reward ratio looks good
looks like the U.S. is attacking in Libya and Somalia against the terror groups..the Somalia raid was in response to the Kenya attacks http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2013/10/06/us-raid-libya-somalia-kenya-terrorists/2931061/
EROI= Energy Return On Investment just curious what it costs as far as pumping etc...here is an interesting link not related to this conversation regarding el-shabib: http://news.yahoo.com/libya-somalia-raids-show-u-threat-al-qaeda-084651085.html
Perhaps the most dreaded phrase in oil shale development is EROI.
Essentially, this is a measure of the energy necessary to produce a specific amount of energy. Oil produced in the 1930s, for example, had a ratio of 100:1. Today, the EROI of conventional oil is about 20:1.
The ratio for oil shale(NOT the same as shale oil), on the other hand, is less than 2:1.
anybody have a clue on AIOFF EROI??
I already mentioned this,but did anyone else hear Keith Hill say that the average price paid to government royalties is 75 -80 dollars a barrel BUT in Iraq they were happy to get 1.50 a barrel??that means some company or government hit the jackpot on the Iraq war....or perhaps multi national companies/governments??