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it's not necessary for the two to become one but WEX has to start being more professional about it (living up to the agreement) and both parties have to bury the hatchet.
Essentally GPXM will run Ashdown and WEX will have to be content to take their share of the profits. That's what you have to accept when you give up controlling interest in the property.
JFF7
GPXM / WEX
Here is an update from the WEX website. You can make some projections on how Q4 went based on tne 2007 numbers and the third qtr number provided previously.
Still ramping up production at the mine and mill. Grades will continue to improve as they work through this.
The 43-101 should be out by in the next 2 months (end of first qtr).
JFF7
http://www.win-eldrich.com/index.html
The Ashdown Project LLC produced and sold seventeen truckloads of molybdenum concentrate containing approximately 397,000 pounds of molybdenum with a gross value of about $12.4 million in 2007.
Molybdenum prices have stabilized in the low $30 per pound range. World wide demand for moly continues to be strong due to rapid expansion of the Chinese and Indian economies so this price is expected to hold for a while.
A geophysical survey to identify areas for expansion of reserves has been conducted but results are not yet avialable.
A resource study is nearly complete and results should be available in the first quarter of 2008.
Ryan's Notes Molybdenum
Ryan's Notes Jan/28/08
More moderate buying activity and dismal stock market
news did little to deflate moly prices last week. A US
mill reportedly purchased four trucks of FeMo for
February in the low $36s. It is assumed that the unsuccessful
bids were at $37 and higher, given Chinese
FeMo prices of $77 per kg. Another US mill bought
FeMo at $36. In Europe prices held steady at $78.50-
79 per kg for FeMo and $33-33.50 per lb for oxide.
Chinese suppliers reportedly have lowered their oxide
prices to $33, and some traders believe that they could
buy for under $33. Nervousness about the stock market
worldwide has made some sellers more cautious about
the future. Traders in Rotterdam appear to be holding
Chinese FeMo stocks, but once those stocks are sold
off, they will not be replenished at such low prices,
analysts say. As a result, many traders are counting on
moly prices dipping temporarily and then recovering.
Briquettes continue to command a large premium, with
sales reported at $34-34.25 per lb.
China's moly oxide exports fell 14% in 2007 compared to
2006, but its FeMo exports rose by 14% during the
same time period. Official statistics (material basis)
show exports for 2007 (with 2006 in parentheses) as
follows: technical moly oxide, 24,854 mt (28,786 mt);
FeMo, 21,133 mt (18,598 mt); pure oxides, 2,189 mt
(1,895 mt); ammonium molybdates, 1,485 mt (1,405
mt); sodium molybdates, 1,317 mt (1,423 mt); moly
metal, 4,518 mt (4,862 mt) and concentrates, 356 mt
(103 mt). It appears that Chinese exporters did not
exceed the export quota for the second half of 2007 of
12,800 mt (Mo) of moly oxide and ferromoly and
4,000 mt (Mo) of moly chemicals and moly metal.
China's regulatory commission for securities has given the
go-ahead for Jinduicheng Molybdenum Group to issue
its first public offering in Shanghai. The moly producer
hopes to raise $2.7-billion to boost production and
modernize.
Moly production at the Antamina mine in Peru fell 8% in
last six months of 2007 to 4,059 mt compared to 4,399
mt in the same period of 2006. In the fourth quarter,
production fell 12% to 2,009 mt from 2,272 mt.
JOHN embry from Sprott on Gold and Gold stocks
http://www.howestreet.com/index.php?pl=/fbn/index.php/mediaplayer/261
Thanks Stock Peeker eom
JFF7
Link to Donald Coxe weekly call needed
I am away from my home base and without my favorite links.
Does someone have the link they can post here?
TIA
JFF7
are the base metals and precious metals decoupling from the rest of the market? or is that just my imagination?
Seems like the metals are going up while the rest of the market is going down.
JFF7
from a mssage board on Yahoo
From: Go Desk
Sent: Thursday, January 10, 2008 6:43 AM
To: Canaccord - Internal Research Distribution
Subject: Morning Commodities Summary - Thursday January 10, 2008
Importance: High
Morning Commodities Summary - Thursday January 10, 2008
Commodities Table (Figures in USD)
Change Last
Gold COMEX -4.90 876.80/ounce
Crude Oil NYMEX -2.02 93.65/barrel
Natural Gas NYMEX +0.00 8.10/MMBtu
AECO C Hub Spot +0.24 6.89/MMBtu
Silver COMEX -0.14 15.70/ounce
Nickel Spot LME -0.18 13.25/lb
Tin LME 3-month -0.05 7.44/lb
Zinc LME 3-month -0.04 1.13/lb
Lead LME 3-month -0.03 1.18/lb
Coal Big Sandy +0.00 55.50/tonne
Aluminium LME -0.01 1.13/lb
Copper COMEX -0.05 3.24/lb
Uranium Spot +0.00 90.00/lb
Molybdenum Oxide +0.60 33.50/lb
Cobalt Spot +1.50 44.00/lb
Titanium Unprocessed +0.00 2.03/lb
Lumber OSB 7x16 +0.00 145.50/1,000 sqft
Corn CBOT -0.01 4.77/bushel
Wheat CBOT -0.05 8.85/bushel
Soybean CBOT -0.01 12.48/bushel
Lean Hogs MERC +0.00 0.57/lb
Sugar MERC -0.09 11.36/lb
JFF7
Raymond James raises copper stock targets
QUA.TO from $27 to $34
EQN.TO from $6 to $7.50
JFF7
SSK - another miner to consider
Quadra (QUA.TO) also fits I think and is followed by quite a few.
JFF7
It's a bit of a sleepy market today. Very low volumes.
Last year it seemed that the base metals took a bit of a dip in early Jnauary and then came back in late January. I assumed at the time that it was peoeple were selling their winners from 2006 in early 2007.
I don't think that is the situatio we are facing this year.
JFF7
Year of the moly girls?
I hope 2008 is the year of the moly girls.
Sprott feels good about them and so do I.
http://www.sprottmoly.com/pdf/moly-outlook.pdf
I own TCM, MLY, WEX/GPXM and added some ROK today.
JFF7
bah! Humbug!
Just kidding. I hope you all have a good time with the season celebrations and a prosporous new year.
Year in and year out you guys have been great. My favorite board by far.
JFF7
SanGold SGR
They are poor on execution but enjoy a great set of drill results. A PP is about to close this week and next week they will have their annual meeting. There may be additional news coming out soon in the form of more high grade drill results.
The last resource report was December of last year. There is a good possibility there will be a revised one in the first qtr of 2008. Also, as Bob mentions they will be mining from the higher grades sometime soon. I don't expect any good results until Q108 but from there on out, I expect them to post sequentially improving qtrs as they mine more and more of the higher grades. They can fairly easily get the mill up to 1800 or 2000.
I wouldn't be surprised if they try to focus their efforts on drills results to get the share price up and eventually let someone else buy them out. Somoene who can atuually get results.
JFF7
Nosleep - declining metal prices
"It must drive CEO's nuts,"
I guess that is wht Quadra put in a floor price of 2.80 for their copper by buying those Puts earlier this year. They will continue on with their plans to bring in their second mine next year without having to worry about the fluctuating copper prices.
JFF7
Got in to Vegas yesterday.
Just sitting by the pool sipping a cold beer.
Off to a 5:30 seminar tonight and then will try my hands at craps for the first time.
See you guys at dinner on Fri / Sat.
JFF7
US dollars fleeing
I think maybe the US investment dollars are taking their profits and leaving the Cdn miners because of the improving value of the US dollar against the Cdn dollar and the increasing LME inventories and dropping commodity prices.
JFF7
Canadian dollar in 5 years
I also think the Cdn dollar should not be so high against the US dollar in normal times. But we don't live in normal times, do we.
I wouldn't be surprised if the North American Union and the Amero is some how part of the eventual solution that helps solves the US financial woes that the Cdn dollar is kep abnormally high for some time. With Canada relying so much on exporting to the US keeping the Cdn dollar high would be a great way to soften up the Canadians to the idea of a single currency.
JFF7
Cl001 - WEX / GPXM
Are you out of WEX and Moly stocks now?
JFF7
Bobwins - PBG
are you revising your 100 target yet? It seems like things are moving so fast perhaps you should.
Any idea of what to expect in the way of the number of licensing deals there is a potnetial for?
JFF7
Makes no difference, the price of beer is elastic in my case. Whatever it takes.
JFF7
WEX - Moly
Picked up a little more WEX today. Actually it was a replace at 1.72 for the ones I sold couple of days ago at 1.88. Just trying to lower my average cost some more which is still over 2 dollars.
Was I buying someone's shares from this board? Looked like somoene dumped 20-30,000 shares.
JFF7
Reducing Metal positions
It may be a mistake but I am reducing my metals positions this week. I am almost out of zinc, greatly reduced my copper positions. Still holding Moly stocks though as it seems to behave differently than the rest of the metals. Maybe not as subject to so much manipulation because there is no futures market and is not LME controlled.
I am out of nickel but it is showing some strength and may be worth keeping an eye on.
Increased my position in San Gold (SGR) just in time for it to start to take off but then they go and issue a large PP than amounts to a large dilution if they exercise the over subscription.
Sitting on more cash than I usually do.
JFF7
Len
Oil contest guess - 108
Thanks,
JFF7
My mistake in regards to the lead,
I discounted the Gallium and Germanium because that is still just talk at this point. No solid plans for these that I remember. Looks like I have less reason to hold SRZ than I thought.
JFF7
Monty - ZMR, Zinc stocks
ZMR was very liquid a couple of weeks ago. I was buying 50,000 shares at a time, no problem. Must have been motivated sellers (maybe those who bought at 16 cents). Funny how things change. Holding for 60 cents and then I will evaluate how much profit to take and how much to hold depending upward potnetial.
Zinc stocks - I only hold SRZ now. Sold my BWR warrants at 2.30-2.40 a few weeks ago. Sold off BN at a small loss after the recent announcement. I am hoping the Lead production that we get with SRZ will help hold it up. Their presentation indicates a lot of production being brought on stream over the next 10 months from the various mines. I think that should generate an upswing regardless of a potnetial drop in zinc prices. But your right, I am expecting less now.
JFF7
Good to see some plans coming together.
I make it a priority to make it out to the dinner(s).
JFF7
Doug - Golden Phoenix
Hi Doug, yes I have looked at it and have chosen to go with WEX the junior partner instead. I thought there was more value there but most people own both WEX and Golden Phoenix. I am gaining more respect for Phoenix's management every day now so I don't think you can go wrong there with either one. Both are about 30% off their July highs. The dispute is dragging down their prices. Why shouldn't we take advantage of it. It would have been better to have been late to the party on these ones since I am under water on WEX but you picked the right time to consider getting in.
JFF&
Cl001 - BM and PM
Yes, I am slowly making my way back to PMs out of BM. I have all but vacated nickel. I got caught holding it on the big drop down and needed to avergae down once it bottomed out and rebounded. I have made my money back and slowly moved out, selling on the peaks.
I have started accumulating gold again this yesterday although I still hold CMM from before. I am not advocating CMM as I think there are a lot better gold plays out there but I am holding till I get back to the black and a small profit for my time.
CS is my second biggest copper holding because of the reasons you have mentioned in other posts. Just too many reasons to own them. The exposure to silver through SST is a real nice kicker.
I still hold my Quadra warrants which is my only long term buy and hold. I have almost a double on my warrants and hope to double again as the share price moves above 20 dollars. Institutiona own 83% of this one now. I feel this is a big asset and greatly improves the odds that a higher P/E is supportable going forward.
JFF7
Nosleep - BN
That is another reason I want to get out of BN. Limited up side because of overhang for the short term.
I am not sure i would agree about the warrant selling. From what I have seen, when new warrants are issued and then made available to freely trade there is a bit of a rush for the door to sell but that quickly dries up. Especially on stocks where the share price is so close to the strike price.
The people who bought the PP shares do as you say, sell the shares and ride the free warrants up. Other people like myself also like to buy the warrants when the stock price is moving up and the share price is coming close to the strike price. You get nice leverage on the warrants at that point with reduced risk of because they are in the money. To me this is the sweet spot in the risk / reward continium for warrants.
JFF7
BN
I am in the same boat as Cl001. I am quite concerned with the management of this company. I don't know if it is just a poor regard for the shareholder and the need for good communication with shareholders or if there are some more underlying fundamental problems (why the need for some much dilution at this point). Whatever the case, I have greatly reduced my holdings. I am at 40,000 shares now and will probably dump that at some time in the next week.
There are other zinc / lead players out there in similar positions if people want to invest in juniors mining those metals.
I am redirecting my money into low cost copper miners and undervalued Moly miners. Those feel like the two best metals to me right now.
JFF7
WEX
I saw those shares at a 1.71 also. By the time I freed up some cash, the smart money had already swooped in.
Moly seems like one of the few stable metals these days. Is that because there is no futures market for it?
Maybe tomorrow I'll get lucky.
JFF7
BN
I also lightened up today. Quite a disappointment really. So much dilution, on such poor terms, with so little reason provided.
- a 10% discount, large commission (6%?), so many shares.
- where are the specifics of the need for the dilution
Management is either incapable of negotiating a good deal or they have very little to negotiate with. Either way, I have a lot less interest in holding any significnt position in this company.
As well they have done a poor job in communicating with shareholders why they need to issue so many shares at this time.
JFF7
QUA
Yes the explanation about the drop in recovery rates is right there in the NR. They know that ore is inconsistent and have projected production taking this into account. They said they will make their production 2007 figures and exceed their gold production target.
I think they are managing this well. I sold my shares a couple of weeks ago but will continue to hold my warrants long term. Each day we get closer to Carlotta and Sierra. The market has to start pricing in something for those at some point, let alone the low PE QUA currently trades on for production from Robinson.
The only other copper I hold is Capstone.
JFF7
GPXM/WEX:
I hope you are right, I added another 4500 shares of WEX this morning. This has become a large holding for me. With the price of Moly so constant and the demand / supply situation looking very favorable for the next year or so, I can't see this not seriously appreciating in the coming months.
JFF7
Attendance at VMC gatherings
I am making this a bit of a holiday so I will be flying in on Wednesday and out on Sunday night.
I will be attending any VMC gatherings as that is a priority with me and I have no other commitments other than to have a little fun while I am there.
It will be great to meet all of you. I am really looking forward to it.
JFF7
Strike on / Copper up eom
OT Separation of funds available for equity investment / trading
Do any of you sep[arate your money into too piles. Some for investment and some for trading?
What percentage did you allocate to each? Is this something people stick to (rebalance) or it is something people are pretty lose with (the lines between funds for investing and funds designated for trading blur alot depending on market conditions)?
I am wondering if people make this sort of separation when they are looking after their money fulltime. It seems you need to have patience with the investments of micros while you wait for the value to be recognized by the market but they also present a lot of short term trading opportunities once they do move.
JFF7
Still down 4.5% from my July highs.
Still, very happy about that. Took the recovery from the correction cautiously by staying out of the juniors with very little liquidity. The ones I did go into, I bought the warrants where I could to mximize return. Added Gold early on but have sold most of it now.
Buying some juniors again this week but taking profits where I can (BWR warrants, MLY warrants, some BMC shares (keeping a wack of warrants longer term)). Just cycling out of ones that have moved into ones that have not moved.
There are so many undervalued junior miners if you believe commoditiy prices will hold or go higher.
Looking at but haven't pulled the trigger yet on precious rare metals. This working for a living gets in the way of making a living.
JFF7
Cl001 Gold Break out
CL001, I think you have the gold bug!
Good luck,
JFF7